Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aesma]

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

Good morning WO! I see that we are 20%+ the bottom, which is a good sign. I think that what we've seen in the last week is not a logical part of the market dynamics. On the contrary, this was a heavily manipulated well coordinated dump using high leverage shorts on bitmex, aided by some unfortunate FUD like Moron's tweets and the chinese winnie the poohs fake news. We know that each time Bitcoin is rising, the chinese communists are reiterating for a millionth time the ban narrative in a desparate but doomed attempt to save the communist yuan. They are so desparate that they are creating millions of fake facebook accounts to advertise the digital yuan. It is quite fun for me to report any add as misleading each time I see it (10+ times per day).

So now the big quiestion is what will happen next. How far the derivate manipulations will go (including CME, which are more subtle, but still present)? I don't want to make assumptions in that direction, since this is only a matter of manipulations, not the real thing. Sooner or later the fiat liquidity will punish the leveraged shorts attempts and wipe out all bitcoins of their owners to 0. Even in 2017 after the 70% dump from the ATH there was a 2x recovery from 6K to 12K. But then most people thought that 20K was not a legit price because it stayed only a couple of days after some weird pump from 10K to 20K. And around 12K a huge amount of weak hodler bitcoins flooded the exchanges which made the price to tank further.

Now the situation is much different. Everyone saw that the price stayed around 60K for months, so it is quite doable and sustainable. The average Joe is still dreaming for a whole coin, so any price lower thatn 30K will be short lived. Moreover, if we look at the log chart with the two 2x parallel lines, we see that the bottom price at the end of 2021 is $25600 and in 2022 - $51200, which can happen only in a severe bear market! This is a contradiction, because it will mean that somewhere in between we will return into the bull market. Since this dump is short lived and not fueled by the weaker hodlers like in 2018, I think that the chances of returning to the bull market in the next few months, even weeks are bigger than in 2022. And that will resemble 2013 double top market. If it happens in 2021 the top price would be around 150-200K+. If it happens in 2022, it would be 300-400K+.

[bitebits]

https://taproot.watch/miners

If BTC.com is able to upgrade all their nodes in the coming days, we will have taproot activated next difficulty epoch!

[somac.]

https://taproot.watch/miners

If BTC.com is able to upgrade all their nodes in the coming days, we will have taproot activated next difficulty epoch!

Apparently they said end of this week.

[virasog]

TLDR; We already had enough decline compared with 2013, but could go to about 25K in the oversold scenario. Anything lower would be a problem.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Losing half of ones net worth, while making 15K in income over a 2 and a half month period is hardly killing it. It is actually a disaster.

For some reason, I did not let the so far 53% drop in BTC's price get to me in an emotional way.. so you are seeming to have some disproportional issues  with that.. as if you are a newbie rather than someone who has had time to accumulate a decent BTC stash.

Of course, I am having some difficulties with some of the exact calculations, but for ballpark purposes some of us might be able to concede that there may have been BTC bought and sold at a variety of prices over the years, and let's just presume that various mistakes were made along the way, too.

So even if some of us may have been in BTC for about 7.5 years (and based on your forum registration date, maybe you and I would be in a very similar position somac?), so maybe we could even concede that our average price per BTC was around $1k per BTC.  Wouldn't that be more or less fair? 

Much easier to calculate impacts of price changes with a round number, no?  So if our portfolio dropped from about 65x profits down to about 30x profits, I am having some troubles feeling the supposed trauma of such a BTC price drop. 

Even though I was buying BTC through 2013, 2014 and 2015, I felt a bit more uneasiness for that period, but even if we assume a similar level of costs per BTC, in 2017/2018 we had a price drop from 20x to 3x, so for some reason with the more passage of time, there seems to be some decent cushion in terms of the amount of the fall in the BTC price.

I am not going to even say that I have one BTC, but let’s presume someone might have 100BTC, and so a drop from $65k to $30k would be a drop from $6.5million in value to $3million in value.. but it is still better than a drop from $2million to $300k, no?  So if you have been able to hang onto some of your BTC over the years, then there should be a bit of a cushion there?

Again, for some reason, I am not feeling the level of panic that you seem to be feeling, somac.

Now, something you will never understand is that you a piece of shit, everyone else can recongnise that, but you never will.

   

I suppose that I do not understand, and probably I don’t care if you and maybe a few others might not like me, but I am not going to let it ruin my day.. or even to get all upset in my posts.

So just accept your limitations and stop thinking you know better than everyone else, you don't.

I presume that you are referring to limitations in my abilities to manage my finances rather than in my ability to get along with others?  You are a bit convoluted here, but I doubt that I was even panicking as close to you in the past few days, which seems to be a sign that I have good financial and psychological management relative to you.. no?. 

Furthermore, I do not presume that I know better than everyone else, because I believe that each person should be attempting to tailor his approach to his own situation including his own limitations and then figure out the extent to which (if at all) he will want to interact with any other member(s) in this thread.   

 It’s hard for me to see that there might be some kind of other important or material problem with my post style or content.. and seems a bit distracting to even consider the matter.  For example, I recall in 2016-ish or maybe it was 2017, there were a lot of guys in the thread telling me how much they hate me on a regular basis and how the thread would be better without my participation blah blah blah.

I have continued to participate… sucks to be you guys forced to read my stuff, and the thread seems to be going just fine, and I hardly even modified the extent of my attempts at contributions to the thread, even though some peeps have said that they do not like me on a regular basis.. hahahahaha

In other words.. hardly news to me, somac, so I am having difficulties understanding the point that you are wanting to make, except wanting to let me know something that I already know – not to get too self-absorbed with baloney talk about how much my content or I may or may not be liked… a BIG whooptie-doo, no?

[luckygenough56]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htgr3pvBr-I

hold the line 

[JayJuanGee]

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

I usually plug any new cash into three categories:  Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips.  So you have to decide how to apportion the amount that you have.  Sounds like you already have some allocated to buying on dips, so you would have to decide if you want to plug more into that category and the other two categories. 

The total of what you do has a lot to do with your particulars and it is NOT only about your views about BTC as compared with other assets, you consider your ongoing cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to tweak along the way.

Of course, opinions are all over the place in regards to whether the bottom is already in or the top is already in and so many other variations, so how you invest can really become a very close impression of yourself and your views and how much you might hedge for a variety of possibilities while still being happy if the price moved against your hedging in one direction or another, so in the end, if you set up your amounts correctly, then you should not really have BIG concerns about if the BTC price goes up or down because you are taking advantage of its movement no matter what.

[luckygenough56]

15 minutes candles seem like 1 hour candles when you daytrading 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aesma]

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

I usually plug any new cash into three categories:  Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips.  So you have to decide how to apportion the amount that you have.  Sounds like you already have some allocated to buying on dips, so you would have to decide if you want to plug more into that category and the other two categories. 

The total of what you do has a lot to do with your particulars and it is NOT only about your views about BTC as compared with other assets, you consider your ongoing cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to tweak along the way.

Of course, opinions are all over the place in regards to whether the bottom is already in or the top is already in and so many other variations, so how you invest can really become a very close impression of yourself and your views and how much you might hedge for a variety of possibilities while still being happy if the price moved against your hedging in one direction or another, so in the end, if you set up your amounts correctly, then you should not really have BIG concerns about if the BTC price goes up or down because you are taking advantage of its movement no matter what.

Basically if I finish my buys at the current price I think I would be happy. But of course if the price crashes again 30% then I might not feel that way. I have already some buy orders for up to a 15% drop from here.

[Searing]

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

I usually plug any new cash into three categories:  Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips.  So you have to decide how to apportion the amount that you have.  Sounds like you already have some allocated to buying on dips, so you would have to decide if you want to plug more into that category and the other two categories.  

The total of what you do has a lot to do with your particulars and it is NOT only about your views about BTC as compared with other assets, you consider your ongoing cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to tweak along the way.

Of course, opinions are all over the place in regards to whether the bottom is already in or the top is already in and so many other variations, so how you invest can really become a very close impression of yourself and your views and how much you might hedge for a variety of possibilities while still being happy if the price moved against your hedging in one direction or another, so in the end, if you set up your amounts correctly, then you should not really have BIG concerns about if the BTC price goes up or down because you are taking advantage of its movement no matter what.

Basically if I finish my buys at the current price I think I would be happy. But of course if the price crashes again 30% then I might not feel that way. I have already some buy orders for up to a 15% drop from here.

started up some home mining again (matchX m2 pro) about $1 a month at most in electric IoT miner)  just because....you can never have too much 'coin' of whatever mining when the

sh*t hits the fan and the price of BTC/crypto tanks...a bit of delusional/denial, hobby-wise, to get me through all this,  but hey....whatever gets me through this latest dump....and/per usual

on 'price recover' on BTC, when I convert this MXC someday the dust from this hobby miner. Rinse/WashRepeat.

I've mined 'air' before at a loss for a year ..did it and stubborn in 2014 on $1.80 LTC and stubbornly stuck to it. the same frigging' newbie bet/idea

"a small act of dubious rebellion' and these times require a 'truly/stupid/senseless and futile gesture on someone's part!, eventually will convert this MXC to go to BTC ...eventually....

Or as I call it 'Fiddling While Rome Burns' for something to do until this whole thing corrects.

This will be my 3rd 'go around' in this manner of 'home mining' while Rome burns since 2013,

By the by, for you newbies that are 'currently freaked out' again, Rinse/Wash/Repeat.

Brad

[aesma]

I'm not mining currently as it's not possible where I'm living but I hope to move soon and there will definitely be a room dedicated to mining. Probably 1 BTC rig and 1 alt rig (selling most of the alts for BTC).

[aesma]

My bank is automatically flagging my bank movements (healthcare, groceries, gas, utilities, etc.) when it can, and I just noticed the money I'm sending to an exchange is now flagged "crypto". Not sure if it's good or bad (although I already knew they knew as they asked about it years ago).

[JayJuanGee]

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

I usually plug any new cash into three categories:  Lump sum, DCA and buying on dips.  So you have to decide how to apportion the amount that you have.  Sounds like you already have some allocated to buying on dips, so you would have to decide if you want to plug more into that category and the other two categories. 

The total of what you do has a lot to do with your particulars and it is NOT only about your views about BTC as compared with other assets, you consider your ongoing cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your time, skills and abilities to tweak along the way.

Of course, opinions are all over the place in regards to whether the bottom is already in or the top is already in and so many other variations, so how you invest can really become a very close impression of yourself and your views and how much you might hedge for a variety of possibilities while still being happy if the price moved against your hedging in one direction or another, so in the end, if you set up your amounts correctly, then you should not really have BIG concerns about if the BTC price goes up or down because you are taking advantage of its movement no matter what.

Basically if I finish my buys at the current price I think I would be happy. But of course if the price crashes again 30% then I might not feel that way. I have already some buy orders for up to a 15% drop from here.

So if you already pretty much have everything in place, but you believe that there might be a 20-30% chance that price could drop another 30% then you might have to allocate a small amount to that rather than totally buying at the current prices, which is making you happy except for  the relatively small area that you are not prepared....

So since you mentioned getting .66BTC.. that would be around $23k.  So let's say that instead of spending $23k at current prices, you spend $18k at current prices, and then you set up buy orders with the remaining $5k at various locations that would make you feel satisfied on outlier scenarios.

Sure, I might be suggesting to hold back too much, so maybe you might only hold back $2k to $3k for such additional down scenarios because you are largely already inclined to put it all in at this price - but you do have some concerns about possible further drops. 

Of course, if the BTC price does not go down, and instead it shoots up $10k from here then you can plan for those kinds of scenarios too...even if you would end up getting less BTC in such a scenario that BTC shot up $10k. 

No matter what, there is no easy answer, but you can get some ideas regarding tweaking the proportions and maybe NOT feeling great in any of the scenarios that you think through, but in the end, you realize that you did the best that you could at the time that you set the orders including making some contingency plans to revisit the matter under the actual scenarios that end up playing out.   

By the way, in around 2016, I used to tweak my set ups a lot more along the way, but with the passage of time, I learned that I did NOT really like tweaking so often because it drains me, so I would usually just set it and then just let it play out and usually I do have some retweaking that is just part of the ongoing plan anyhow, so if sell orders get filled I end up manually setting buy orders after the sell orders fill and the opposite is true if the buy orders fill then I end up manually setting up sell orders after the buy orders fill.... so sometimes the retweaking can just be built into the system, so that if just one or two buy orders fill, then that would cause me to tweak differently as compared with 5-6 buy orders or even more getting filled (vice versa is true, also).. So sometimes, I tell myself that I am not even going to think about the matter until after orders get filled in one direction or the other...and sometimes I will put them far apart on purpose, so that I do not have to think about it unless the BTC price moves even further in one direction or another in order to force me to detach myself from any noise in between the set levels.

Sorry that it can be a bit long and confusing, but I also might have additional great cushions that I put in place if I accidentally make a mistake in one direction or another or for example, if I am setting an order to buy at $32k, for example, but I accidentally end up buying at market price ($36k), then it might cause me to say fuck it and I don't set anymore buy orders unless the BTC price goes down to $30k, but it might cause me to set an additional sell order at $40k rather than $42k and then once the sell order executes at $40k, then i can set the buy order at $32k.. and of course, the combination of the orders can prioritize stacking more sats or stacking more fiat depending on my then inclinations... and I understand at this time, you aesma, are more inclined to be stacking sats rather than stacking fiat because you had felt that you had overdone your fiat stacking.. so you want to move the needle back in the other direction towards having a bit higher allocation in sats... .so in that sense, maybe all of your sell orders end up being very small but your buy orders tend to use higher portions of your fiat that is generated  and sometimes if you are not paying attention, then you can start to become way more imbalanced on the opposite side as you had been earlier.. so then all of a sudden you feel that you have too many sats and not enough dollars.... so you gotta start to shave those sats off, once you reach that point.

I kind of learned my lesson about that in late 2017, so I had been buying back way too many sats during the drop from $20k, so after that time, I learned to spread my buy back orders a bit larger quantities so that I feel more comfortable, and less likely to run out of money if the BTC price continues to drop.  In the end, the important thing is that I feel better, and I give no shits about how some other guy in this thread would feel about if I have too many sats or too many dollars.

Just like a few months ago, I had buy orders going down to $9k, and I felt good about that.  I had some guys here say that I should cancel those orders, and I did not.  However, I had some changes in my circumstances that did cause me to cancel my orders between about $9k and $13k, and it is likely that I will be cancelling some more buy orders between $13k and higher numbers that are yet to be determined.. maybe even up; to $20k depending on both how near term prices move but also in terms of how much money I am going to need for some projects that I am figuring out the details including some bills coming due in the near future.

[Parazyd]

Is doomsday upon us?

[Kylapoiss]

holdsleep be like :

I promise you..... it looks a whole way different brother....

HODLsleep = shut down and eyes only opens in the morning, phone not in the bed until then...

He's watching his XRP suffer.

[kellrobinson]

How many satoshis in a niblet?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation