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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336960 times)
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June 26, 2021, 11:26:53 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

[Buddy breaker - it's quiet around here.....]

Apologies if this has been posted here before (I don't think it has).

I don't usually concern myself too much with mining, but this discussion between Adam Back (CEO of Blockstream) and Tyler Page (CEO of Cipher Mining) is pretty interesting to gain an understanding of the current thinking of miners in relation to the recent movement of hash rate distribution away from China, energy use and global semiconductor shortages.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxAczyya374
Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
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June 26, 2021, 11:53:39 AM

I've been following the actions of this whale for several years. He is a legend, making $100-200mil by leverage trading on BFX and other derivate exchanges. Since he is well known to the owners of exchanges, he can't openly manipulate the market. My observations show that he is working alone and he is a fair player. In that sense his shorts can't harm the price. Also, he was not always right. It's just that his successful trades are more important than the unsuccessful ones. For example, after 12 March 2020, when the price recovered to 6K, he was confident there will be a pull back to 3K. He failed miserably then, losing a big portion of his wealth. After that, he announced he is retiring. But clearly, he changed his mind recently, when he saw the 12+ consecutive red hours, repeating each Friday. He closed his shorts just before the price fell to 28K last week, fearing a strong rebound. He was right. Now he thinks the price will fall to 30K and is waiting with $800m+ shorts. I don't know what is the leverage, but by a pure speculation it is between 5x and 20x, probably 10x. I've noticed that he added his short positions after the price fell to 33K area yesterday, which clearly shows he is not involved in the regular dumps. Moreover, even if he dumps on BFX, it won't affect the price on the other exchanges. Nowadays Binance is forming the price and the huge volume there makes it harder for a single whale to manipulate the price. But there are other futures exchanges, so this is a valid possibility, of course. Especially, if we have a group of whales making coordinated dumps simultaneously on several exchanges.
How are you able to follow the actions of this person so closely, and determine his reasoning so clearly? Like for example you said he announced he was retiring? Is there a special feature on BFX for following certain whales?  Or are you just guessing it from certain price actions?
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June 26, 2021, 12:01:38 PM


Explanation
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June 26, 2021, 12:06:00 PM

budddeyyyy!

"He not your friend 'budddeyyy' guy!" ... Smiley




----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------





That doesn't sound good. See El Salvador to airdrop $30 in Bitcoin to every adult citizen:
Quote
Prensa Latina notes El Salvador’s citizens will only receive the free Bitcoin after downloading the government-issued cryptocurrency wallet application.
A government controlled wallet sounds very bad Sad

Who cares?? ... It's free publicity. And they will eventually want to hold some sort of coin into their own hand. And if they want to sell and get out, the Government will buy it all at cheap price from the suckers that sell and then they will lend it against other currencies "under the sheets" deal with their own central bank. Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

*Edit(): Not to mention... THEY WILL LEND FIAT TO THEIR PEOPLE BACKED BY BTCiTCOIN AND THEY WILL HAVE TO PAY BACK BIG BUCKS!!! Cheesy Cheesy

At least someone is consistent.

That is the consistency of Save the RF not making hardly no senses.



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June 26, 2021, 01:01:26 PM


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June 26, 2021, 01:17:27 PM

@nayibbukele issues powerful warning to nocoiner nations:


https://twitter.com/mtcbtc/status/1408572591548166145
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June 26, 2021, 01:19:02 PM
Last edit: June 26, 2021, 01:44:30 PM by ivomm

I've been following the actions of this whale for several years. He is a legend, making $100-200mil by leverage trading on BFX and other derivate exchanges. Since he is well known to the owners of exchanges, he can't openly manipulate the market. My observations show that he is working alone and he is a fair player. In that sense his shorts can't harm the price. Also, he was not always right. It's just that his successful trades are more important than the unsuccessful ones. For example, after 12 March 2020, when the price recovered to 6K, he was confident there will be a pull back to 3K. He failed miserably then, losing a big portion of his wealth. After that, he announced he is retiring. But clearly, he changed his mind recently, when he saw the 12+ consecutive red hours, repeating each Friday. He closed his shorts just before the price fell to 28K last week, fearing a strong rebound. He was right. Now he thinks the price will fall to 30K and is waiting with $800m+ shorts. I don't know what is the leverage, but by a pure speculation it is between 5x and 20x, probably 10x. I've noticed that he added his short positions after the price fell to 33K area yesterday, which clearly shows he is not involved in the regular dumps. Moreover, even if he dumps on BFX, it won't affect the price on the other exchanges. Nowadays Binance is forming the price and the huge volume there makes it harder for a single whale to manipulate the price. But there are other futures exchanges, so this is a valid possibility, of course. Especially, if we have a group of whales making coordinated dumps simultaneously on several exchanges.
How are you able to follow the actions of this person so closely, and determine his reasoning so clearly? Like for example you said he announced he was retiring? Is there a special feature on BFX for following certain whales?  Or are you just guessing it from certain price actions?

There was an article about him in coindesk and cointelegraph shortly after 12 March 2020, when he lost his short position. His name is known, but I don't remember it. He is and OG shorter often sharing some TA and many follow his lead. After the 2020 fiasco he twitted it is time to retire from active trading. Clearly, the bitter taste of losing tens of millions, probably even over one hundred million made him to change his mind. Of course, he still has around or above $100mil.

Edit. I think, I found part of the info:
https://amazingcrypto.com/a-big-bitfinex-bitcoin-whale-is-anticipating-a-severe-correction-will-he-be-right/
https://pulse.bitfinex.com/post/2ccbfa7b-60f0-4637-b94d-2536d8f16fef

As it is seen, he wasn't correct about Bitcoin not going over 10K. Sounds just like proudhon  Grin Grin Grin I remember vaguely his tweets about his leverage short position at 6K going rekkt. He anticipated a double bottom at least. But not this time. The coming halving prevented this from happening. He was one of those claiming the halving was priced in. I really can't understand how such a moron made this profit. Recently BFX increased the leverage limit up to 10x. So this 800mil short position at 10x is backed up by only $80mil, which is 50-80% of the bitcoins this whale has. This is quite stupid  IMO. A 10-20% increase will liquidate his position.
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June 26, 2021, 02:01:26 PM


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June 26, 2021, 02:22:37 PM


So I saw this image and it hit me hard and really wanted to share with you guys


Source: Bitcoin.all

But I am little bit confused which dip she might be talking about? Grin.The cheese garlic one or the real one  Wink

That's the million dollar question...

how much dip is enough dip, and what should be my plan to deal with such seemingly ongoing (and never-ending) dippenings?

We need to have these dips turned into opportunity if we have trust on Bitcoin and invest another extra portion of savings into Bitcoin on these dips and stay calm.

Let's say that if you already had a plan in place between February and May when BTC prices were largely supra $50k, I don't know if there would be any necessity to add value because your already existing plan should have already covered what you would do if the BTC prices were to go down and to stay down for 6 weeks and counting; however, I do believe that quite a few people were likely thrown off by a "so far" 56% BTC price correction in the midst of what was supposed to be a bull market.

So there might be some people who are having to revise their plans based on such somewhat shocking circumstances, but I would not necessarily suggest that creates a need to add value but maybe to tweak the plan, depending on if a lot of the buying wadd was blown earlier than expected with the expectation that BTC prices were not going to drop below certain levels (such as 30% or 40%) - which ended up NOT happening.

Of course some people will have their regular cashflows coming in over the about 6 weeks that had passed since we first were touching upon $50k and subsequently dropped below it.  Whether that is adding more cash or just continuing to follow a kind of DCA plan might be two different questions.. and whether the extent of the dip inspires more buying or not, might concern if more dip is expected.. which surely is not assured, even though we are testing $30k again as I type.




Although the funny and pressure part is that it keeps on dipping afterwards but we need to realise that it will go up as soon as Retail and institutional support is forwarded to the market which maybe soon in say next 1-2 month.

Of course an aspect of BTC's price performance remains momentum driven, so sometimes it can take a bit of time to reverse momentum, so your projection of 1-2 months does not seem unrealistic if the bottom of $28,600 is already in but if we end up getting more BTC price movement below $28,600 without any kind of strong bounce back, then that just provides more justifications to keep attempting to test that $28,600 price point to make sure that it is the bottom or not.


Till then we need to relax say stay away from regular market reactions and FOMO which will help us to not worry much if we have already invested to our full extent into Bitcoin.

Sure, there is some value to dealing with the facts that are in front of us, so if anyone investing in BTC has a financial plan in place, then their psychology will be stronger to deal with where we are at and what might come.  People who change their plans based on the market, might have periods of uncertainty, unrest and more difficulties to stay relaxed unless their plan change makes for more certainty.. maybe to be prepared for either BTC price direction?  I suppose that we can change our plans to make sure that we are prepared for either price direction at any time, so that way we do not become too much stressed out by the price moving in a direction that was contrary to our preparations.


We need to think that it's not the beginning of the end of the market but the end of bearish trend and beginning of bull run soon.

I don't think about it like that.

Largely, I have considered that we have been in a bull run since about April 2019 and we have had some corrections along the way, including our current one that is quite large.

Sure people are going to have their different assessments of where we are at, and I personally believe that it is too early to proclaim this as a bear market - even if it could persist for so long or correct low enough to actually be considered a bear market. 

In other words, it seems way too exaggerated and inaccurate to be switching back and forth in whether to characterize a market as a bear market, and surely trend reversals do end up happening, and we do end up going into bear markets but it we cannot really know if we are in such bear market from merely staggering for 6 weeks below $50k.. especially since the BTC price came up from $10k in early September to $64,895 in mid-April, so having a 6.5x price appreciation and a 56% price correction still keeps us around 3x up from where we were in early September.. 9 months ago.

Another thing is that this is BTC, so if people are trying to throw out their bullshit premature proclamations of "bear market" then they may well not be understanding that bitcoin is a kind of a unique asset, so they might well end up getting fucked up the ass if they are failing and refusing to account for the more convincing and current BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

I am surely not trying to be stubborn or pie in the sky in terms of proclaiming bull market or bear market because I personally give few shits in terms of trying to fight that the BTC price is going to do what it is going to do based on a large number of factors.. so in that sense, each of us just rolls with the punches, so if the facts start to establish that $64,895 has been our local top and we are not going to end up with a kind of 2013 pattern of a double top, then I will concede that we are in a bear market.   

By the way, mentioning 2013, surely that BTC price performance pattern played out differently from the one that we are experiencing right now, so we cannot necessarily expect each pattern to play out with any kind of exactness to some other pattern because quite a few variables can change in 8 years.  Nonetheless, when we look back at 2013, we should be able to appreciate and recognize that we had a bull market with a long correction period (of about 5 months) within it.  I don't think it would be correct to characterize 2013 as going into a bull market up until April then having a bear market until September and then going into another bull market.  That is just a dumbass way of characterizing what happened in 2013, if anyone wants to make that kind of a switching back and forth proclamation regarding whether we were in a bear market or a bull market at that time.

It will not keep dipping to some serious levels and will eventually rise and we need to wait until that point is achieved.

Sure, if we are in a bull market, then this statement is correct.  If we end up being in a bear market currently then your statement is not correct.  Like I said, I personally still believe that we are in a bullmarket, but I still express my thinking in terms of probabilities rather than saying that something "will" or "will not" happen.
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June 26, 2021, 02:57:58 PM

I've been following the actions of this whale for several years. He is a legend, making $100-200mil by leverage trading on BFX and other derivate exchanges. Since he is well known to the owners of exchanges, he can't openly manipulate the market. My observations show that he is working alone and he is a fair player. In that sense his shorts can't harm the price. Also, he was not always right. It's just that his successful trades are more important than the unsuccessful ones. For example, after 12 March 2020, when the price recovered to 6K, he was confident there will be a pull back to 3K. He failed miserably then, losing a big portion of his wealth. After that, he announced he is retiring. But clearly, he changed his mind recently, when he saw the 12+ consecutive red hours, repeating each Friday. He closed his shorts just before the price fell to 28K last week, fearing a strong rebound. He was right. Now he thinks the price will fall to 30K and is waiting with $800m+ shorts. I don't know what is the leverage, but by a pure speculation it is between 5x and 20x, probably 10x. I've noticed that he added his short positions after the price fell to 33K area yesterday, which clearly shows he is not involved in the regular dumps. Moreover, even if he dumps on BFX, it won't affect the price on the other exchanges. Nowadays Binance is forming the price and the huge volume there makes it harder for a single whale to manipulate the price. But there are other futures exchanges, so this is a valid possibility, of course. Especially, if we have a group of whales making coordinated dumps simultaneously on several exchanges.
How are you able to follow the actions of this person so closely, and determine his reasoning so clearly? Like for example you said he announced he was retiring? Is there a special feature on BFX for following certain whales?  Or are you just guessing it from certain price actions?

There was an article about him in coindesk and cointelegraph shortly after 12 March 2020, when he lost his short position. His name is known, but I don't remember it. He is and OG shorter often sharing some TA and many follow his lead. After the 2020 fiasco he twitted it is time to retire from active trading. Clearly, the bitter taste of losing tens of millions, probably even over one hundred million made him to change his mind. Of course, he still has around or above $100mil.

Edit. I think, I found part of the info:
https://amazingcrypto.com/a-big-bitfinex-bitcoin-whale-is-anticipating-a-severe-correction-will-he-be-right/
https://pulse.bitfinex.com/post/2ccbfa7b-60f0-4637-b94d-2536d8f16fef

As it is seen, he wasn't correct about Bitcoin not going over 10K. Sounds just like proudhon  Grin Grin Grin I remember vaguely his tweets about his leverage short position at 6K going rekkt. He anticipated a double bottom at least. But not this time. The coming halving prevented this from happening. He was one of those claiming the halving was priced in. I really can't understand how such a moron made this profit. Recently BFX increased the leverage limit up to 10x. So this 800mil short position at 10x is backed up by only $80mil, which is 50-80% of the bitcoins this whale has. This is quite stupid  IMO. A 10-20% increase will liquidate his position.

If I had the money I would love to liquidate him. The less whales the better for Bitcoin. Ok that would actually make me a whale lol.
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June 26, 2021, 03:01:38 PM


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June 26, 2021, 03:18:52 PM
Merited by ivomm (1)

For example, after 12 March 2020, when the price recovered to 6K, he was confident there will be a pull back to 3K. He failed miserably then, losing a big portion of his wealth. After that, he announced he is retiring.

I've fucked this guy last year and I'll fuck him again.

How would you do that?  You are not a whale becoin, right?

Sure the guys who are shorting might be employing some other tactics as well, but surely they do get reckt from time to time, and of course, those of us who are long in BTC are frequently wishing for various white knight angel bull whales to rescue us from periods in which BTC price is negative or stagnant. So, yeah part of the justification of not dickering around with getting in and out of any BTC long position (even when prices seem to be spiraling down) is that BTC's historical record shows that on average there are ONLY a few days each year that you should have been in bitcoin but none of us can really know when those are going to be, so if we miss out being "in" on those days, we end up getting fucked... having to chase the train down the track to catch up with our luggage falling behind.  We've seen that movie, no?

Seems like this time they smarter and will break 30k slowly. This is worse than a hard dump.

At least the order book is still pretty strong, I thought the last drop would have cleared it out far more.

It's not over until the fat lady sings.

[edited out]

The only homogenous train of thought there should be allowed for each person that pertains to having a personality, enforcing it and upholding it.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

In theory, that makes lots of senses as a coherent thought.   Wink

I really can't understand how such a moron made this profit. Recently BFX increased the leverage limit up to 10x. So this 800mil short position at 10x is backed up by only $80mil, which is 50-80% of the bitcoins this whale has. This is quite stupid  IMO. A 10-20% increase will liquidate his position.

Looking forward to the guy (Joe007) getting liquidated.  I thought that I had heard about him before late 2019.. but I cannot remember.. bitcoin can sometimes seem like a bit of a timewarp.
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June 26, 2021, 03:32:15 PM


https://twitter.com/DaanCrypto/status/1408778848414613507
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June 26, 2021, 04:01:26 PM


Explanation
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June 26, 2021, 04:05:36 PM




Ideal time for buy now
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June 26, 2021, 04:21:17 PM

Someone who was here since 2011 has got to be a whale, maybe even a 'blue whale', unless they were into some "other" stuff early.
It figures.
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June 26, 2021, 04:25:47 PM
Merited by Biodom (1)

Well in other news, I'm back to fixing miners again. Just repaired a nice T17+ for a Bitcoin Forum member, had a bunch of interesting little problems to untangle.

But it's merrily hashing away at 47th so that's nice.
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June 26, 2021, 04:30:23 PM

OT: A guy had covid twice, appendicitis and someone stole his 85K watch all in the last 12mo..scores a neat goal by bending in into a corner..he should be invited to WO, lol.
Denmark is ahead..
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June 26, 2021, 04:34:27 PM

Well in other news, I'm back to fixing miners again. Just repaired a nice T17+ for a Bitcoin Forum member, had a bunch of interesting little problems to untangle.

But it's merrily hashing away at 47th so that's nice.

too bad my hashpower is in Can, otherwise I would have sent you some of those sick puppies.
From Can it is too expensive plus a surplus tax on China stuff (although i am not sure it is still in effect or not-'killed' me on US hashpower).
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June 26, 2021, 04:47:07 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1), ImThour (1), bkbirge (1)

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