Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Copetech]

Wuh OH!
Looks like we're in for a little downtime!📉

[1714008179]

1714008179

[savetherainforest]

Wuh OH!
Looks like we're in for a little downtime!📉

Sit down newbie! ... There is no such thing happening.    

[Copetech]

Wuh OH!
Looks like we're in for a little downtime!📉

Sit down newbie! ... There is no such thing happening.    

Jest Sayin'
Red dripping candles
6:00

In case some may have looked away for a moment...

Observations made.

(beeyitch)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Copetech]

But anyway, I was fond of his entertainment persona. That will be missed. And I don't think it was a suicide.

I wonder what will happen to all his coins... ?? ....        

And this is something I've been pondering recently... A maybe yet to be realized mitigating factor in the long-term course of this new currency.
We've already mentioned coins lost to forgotten keys and typos... but what about the generational wealth transfer that breaks down far more often than it succeeds as our first generation of HODL'ers fail to properly secure a means of passing coins on in the inevitable unfortunate demise.

With paper Fiat it's not uncommon to find out years later that old Uncle Festus had hidden thousands of $$$ under his floor boards. Or that Grandpa Irving had an old savings account or safety deposit box with forgotten fortunes waiting to be claimed.

But if a whale dies in an untimely manner, all those coins are likely to be gone forever. And as a first generation of sharks, fishes and even the thousands of shrimp age out and pass, how many coins are burned on a funeral pyre with no means of recovery? Sure we know BTC is deflationary, but this could bring in a whole new magnitude of deflation that I'm not really sure has been recognized.

Once they're gone, they're gone... right?

[WaltKitty]

Artist depiction of Bitcoin blackhole consuming JPMorgue neutron star (shriveled corpse of a former sun)

Apt analogy. It blows my mind that from what I have read the "corpse" was not subject to the theorized spaghettification effect. It appears the singularity "swallowed" the neutron star directly over the event horizon and this was what caused the shockwave through space-time. To take your analogy further marcus_of_augustus, this is how I imagine the final throws of Bitcoins adoption to play out on the way to capitulation from CB's and(more)nation state's. Boom!!

Ah! But it's so important to know what one doesn't know! Otherwise we're limited to what one knows, which is quite limiting indeed. However, delving into the unknown with both feet leaves one ungrounded, and prone to being swept into chaotic confusion. So ideally, the way forward is to plant one foot solidly into what one knows while boldly reaching out with the other foot, into the unknown. So if you don't know what you know, and even more importantly, know what you don't know, then clearly you're lost, and should probably sit for a moment and ponder, lest you fall in ignorance.

Welcome to the Wall Walt! It's refreshing to see new faces as a Newbie.

(Does this mean I get a promotion?)

(Edit Words are hard, and by the time you finish editing out all the mistakes, it's easy to forget what you were trying to say...)

Wise words Copetech and well said. As far as promotions go I have no clue but I am happy to take low man on the totem pole. I am pretty convinced that I would lose my head if it was not attached by some miraculous means to my shoulders.

[cAPSLOCK]

If we can bump up past here it's pretty clear to 38k.  But there is no actual volume.

What we seem to have is a bullish small player, retail.  And whales selling .

I am not sure I agree with this premise. Without people selling, there are no people buying. Without people buying, there are no people selling. I don't whale's need or want to sell at this point of the adoption curve.

I think I agree.  What I am seeing is retail pushing the price north in the absence of whale moves, but when the volume shows up we seem to be headed down. So small buyers outnumber small sellers, but the volume of large sellers has outpaced both large and small buyers recently.

[marcus_of_augustus]

So what did you put in the search engine bro?  just curious.....

... +"llamas mating image"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVwnAyw6m0Y

[cAPSLOCK]

OK... if you have a tinfoil hat, now would be the time to put it on.

1.  China has pissed off all the miners at once somehow and they have moved away en masse like some migratory butterflies with the need to fly west programmed into their DNA.

Eeh.  I give it 15%.  It would be less, but the sterotype of the east being the real players when it comes to groupthink gives it a little gas.

2.  China has sent out communiques saying something like "Get out or we take you down" to all the major players.  And they talked amongst themselves and began to move out.

This seems like the 70% scenario. And what a huge tactical error on the part of one of the strongest countries in the world.

3. This is planned by China, or more than China, and more is coming than we think.

This is the tinfoil 15%.

Say that China, or a group of nations including China, and their pet, the US among others decided they were going to buy up miners for a while on the sly (anyone have data?) and then when they have enough force down both the ones they already control, and then also the ones they can influence to induce the largest downward difficulty adjustment in the history of the project.

Publish tons of images of people boxing up miners and laying them out on the floor.  Make sure there are people in those pictures wearing clothes that would suggest a certain area of the world etc.

Then, of course, after the downward adjustment bring all the miners online at once... the ones pulled out and all the new ones, and start a hashrate attack.

At the same time loose a giant troll army on Twitter, Reddit, and oh, I dunno, say an OG Bitcoin forum.  And start driving one or two narratives to split the community at the exact time of the attack.  Let's face it.  If the banking system that runs the world is going to stop this "release valve" ( in the words of Legarde) they have just about reached their last chance.  It's now or never for them.

What could they achieve with this method?

And if they are going to do it... who are the spooks here?  Will they post on this thread?  Or just start up new ones?

[modrobert]

I think his game plan is clear.

He wants to make a legal claim to the fact he is "Satoshi", and then he will have the court issue an order that the BTC (and BCH and BSV devs) make a change to the code that allows him to access the keys to the "Satoshi coins" on his list.

His funder has made 10 figures using the courts for this sort of shenanigans for years.

As much as I think he is a horrible person, this drama is somewhat interesting.  One interesting point is, if my some stroke of luck he actually can get the "order" to have BTC code changed to grant him access we will see yet another fork.  Obviously the real bitcoin devs will not changer the code.  But someone will, and that fork will be launched, and declared the "true bitcoin" or even the "true BTC".

This is tiresome.  But it is also a reality, and one of the sorts of attacks on Bitcoin that I do not think (the actual) Satoshi foresaw.  Nor did the others 10 years ago who had somewhat better vision than him like Finney.

I hear many people calling for the code to be "ossified".  That even the hard fought improvements like Taproot/Schnorr are not worth the social risk.  But I think they are stopping one level too short of where the REAL ossification has to happen and HAS BEEN happening.

That is the ossification of consensus.  We can have as many copies of Bitcoin created as there are places to store the blockchain.  And the argument by many no-coiners that there are "endless bitcoins" because there are "endless forks, and alts" is easily brushed aside by the true believers, but in reality it is important, and necessary for us to go through this process during the birth of a new monetary network.  The tradeoff with this network being FOSS is it can be forked as many times as people want to fork it.  And that is where one of the most viable realms of attacks are.  Wright and Ayre have been gathering as many followers and believers as possible in an alternate vision for Bitcoin to the end that they can subvert it, take it over, and be the central authority of it.

This seems very futile to me, in light of the fact that the network has CLEARLY shown where consensus lies for the last 4 years as well as the fact that relative new converts (and ones in power like President Bukele) have also correctly evaluated the landscape and seen that Bitcoin, with all it's choices and tradeoffs is ONE THING, and there is no need to listen to the various siren songs of imitators and subverters.

But it is still going to happen. And things like default judgements in the courts etc will happen, and that wedge will be driven as far as possible before trying to do the eventual "flip".

Of course this is futile, and annoying.  I wish i had some clarity on the way this continues to unfold, but I see to many competing possibilities.  But most future universes end in failure for our friends the frauds.  It's just that the real thing ends up having to walk through this mud on the way to rock solid establishment.

You can't make code changes to get keys for blocks, that wouldn't work. Also, as mentioned before, when it comes to client code patches we can always refuse to update, and a majority most likely would reject in this case, effectively ignoring any court decision.

Other than that, I think your theory is plausible if the motives for Craig are to make some claims, win lawsuits, and get rich in the process...but who really wants to be identified as Satoshi, a constant target, would you?

I have another theory; Craig was in a tight spot legally (or financially), he made a deal with someone, the plan is to smoke out the real Satoshi by using Craig as a stooge.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Syke]

You can't make code changes to get keys for blocks, that wouldn't work. Also, as mentioned before, when it comes to client code patches we can always refuse to update, and a majority most likely would reject in this case, effectively ignoring any court decision.

That's what makes that lawsuit frivolous. Anyone can hard-fork bitcoin. CSW has already done it himself. He can fork bitcoin and send the coins to himself. I can't think of a single case where someone has sued to have a third-party do what the first-party could do.

[goldkingcoiner]

Wuh OH!
Looks like we're in for a little downtime!📉

Sit down newbie! ... There is no such thing happening.    

I don't know... I see downtime as any time below 100k.

[sirazimuth]

..... that old Uncle Festus had hidden thousands of $$$ under his floor boards. Or that Grandpa Irving had an old savings account or safety deposit box ......

.....

...not to mention cousin Mel, Grandma Gertie and Auntie Grizelda.

[cAPSLOCK]

I think his game plan is clear.

He wants to make a legal claim to the fact he is "Satoshi", and then he will have the court issue an order that the BTC (and BCH and BSV devs) make a change to the code that allows him to access the keys to the "Satoshi coins" on his list.

His funder has made 10 figures using the courts for this sort of shenanigans for years.

As much as I think he is a horrible person, this drama is somewhat interesting.  One interesting point is, if my some stroke of luck he actually can get the "order" to have BTC code changed to grant him access we will see yet another fork.  Obviously the real bitcoin devs will not changer the code.  But someone will, and that fork will be launched, and declared the "true bitcoin" or even the "true BTC".

This is tiresome.  But it is also a reality, and one of the sorts of attacks on Bitcoin that I do not think (the actual) Satoshi foresaw.  Nor did the others 10 years ago who had somewhat better vision than him like Finney.

I hear many people calling for the code to be "ossified".  That even the hard fought improvements like Taproot/Schnorr are not worth the social risk.  But I think they are stopping one level too short of where the REAL ossification has to happen and HAS BEEN happening.

That is the ossification of consensus.  We can have as many copies of Bitcoin created as there are places to store the blockchain.  And the argument by many no-coiners that there are "endless bitcoins" because there are "endless forks, and alts" is easily brushed aside by the true believers, but in reality it is important, and necessary for us to go through this process during the birth of a new monetary network.  The tradeoff with this network being FOSS is it can be forked as many times as people want to fork it.  And that is where one of the most viable realms of attacks are.  Wright and Ayre have been gathering as many followers and believers as possible in an alternate vision for Bitcoin to the end that they can subvert it, take it over, and be the central authority of it.

This seems very futile to me, in light of the fact that the network has CLEARLY shown where consensus lies for the last 4 years as well as the fact that relative new converts (and ones in power like President Bukele) have also correctly evaluated the landscape and seen that Bitcoin, with all it's choices and tradeoffs is ONE THING, and there is no need to listen to the various siren songs of imitators and subverters.

But it is still going to happen. And things like default judgements in the courts etc will happen, and that wedge will be driven as far as possible before trying to do the eventual "flip".

Of course this is futile, and annoying.  I wish i had some clarity on the way this continues to unfold, but I see to many competing possibilities.  But most future universes end in failure for our friends the frauds.  It's just that the real thing ends up having to walk through this mud on the way to rock solid establishment.

You can't make code changes to get keys for blocks, that wouldn't work. Also, as mentioned before, when it comes to client code patches we can always refuse to update, and a majority most likely would reject in this case, effectively ignoring any court decision.

Other than that, I think your theory is plausible if the motives for Craig are to make some claims, win lawsuits, and get rich in the process...but who really wants to be identified as Satoshi, a constant target, would you?

I have another theory; Craig was in a tight spot legally (or financially), he made a deal with someone, the plan is to smoke out the real Satoshi by using Craig as a stooge.

Ooh.  I like your theory better... it would just be more fun overall.

There are several ways they could give Craig the satoshi Coins.  The will not be able to produce the keys, but they can just ad an OPCODE like OP_FAKETOSHI that would move those UTXOs to other addresses, or invalidate them and issue him others etc...  I am sure this is the sort of thing he gets sweaty thinking about.

[cAPSLOCK]

You can't make code changes to get keys for blocks, that wouldn't work. Also, as mentioned before, when it comes to client code patches we can always refuse to update, and a majority most likely would reject in this case, effectively ignoring any court decision.

That's what makes that lawsuit frivolous. Anyone can hard-fork bitcoin. CSW has already done it himself. He can fork bitcoin and send the coins to himself. I can't think of a single case where someone has sued to have a third-party do what the first-party could do.

It's all theater.  Very few would accept his fork in ANY circumstance, but more might if he can get legal pronouncements.  Also certainly governments have realized by now all they have to do is "believe him" and back "Bitcoin" to ultimately take control.  I honestly think he has also be shooting that angle as well.

[Hueristic]

..... that old Uncle Festus had hidden thousands of $$$ under his floor boards. Or that Grandpa Irving had an old savings account or safety deposit box ......

.....

...not to mention cousin Mel, Grandma Gertie and Auntie Grizelda.

I went to see them last year, I wouldn't recommend it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Elwar]

China is working on their own shitcoin.

They needed to get rid of Bitcoin from their country before they could begin on their shitcoin.

They may even be hoping to do a copy of Bitcoin and release it globally akin to how they take normal decent products and think they can just replicate it and sell it themselves for every other product in the world.

If they're smart, they shut down the Bitcoin miners and they confiscate them to be used as their new shitcoin miners.

[Richy_T]

I agree that there might have been other option besides defaulting in this case. I think a competent barrister could have argued for a sealed proceeding on the grounds of possible bodily harm or some other form of retaliation being made upon the defendant if his identity had been revealed to the general public. I also think that if there were financial considerations that kept this case from being defended properly that the Bitcoin community would have rallied in support. I also agree that the disparity between the haves and have nots in most judicial systems is a heinous thing. I think Elon Musk is more clever than most give credit for, it could just be he was tweaking the nose of the SEC and exercising his right to free speech. I do not care for his obsession with dogecoin even though it is a interesting community with tremendous support. I remain unconvinced of its long term store of value properties and usefulness. There is only one person who really knows the motive and I don't believe the man has time or the inclination to explain to us mere mortal's.

It's worth noting that the scumbag likes to pick his jurisdictions based on which is most likely to give him the more favorable outcome. Notably, he has gamed the UK's libel laws in previous actions. This is clearly an action that should have occurred in the US given that .orgs are technically US and bitcoin.org is on a server based in the US but malarkey as ever...