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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26363610 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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July 01, 2021, 05:13:42 PM

To all the shitcoin holders in the market,it can change your life completely as it can make you millionaire but there is a catch in this statement because it can surely make you millionaire only if you are already billionaire Grin


See how's the buggati chirron in Ronaldo's backyard looking after he invested the money in dogecoin under the Musk influence Grin.So you can also try to have it.
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July 01, 2021, 05:23:52 PM
Last edit: July 01, 2021, 05:43:58 PM by modrobert

Just read it’s the 100th Anniversary of the CCP today. Hopefully their influence on anything bitcoin related is nearly over.

Any way, here’s some HOPIUM -


@maxkeiser
The #Bitcoin   hash is undergoing a seismic, global redistribution along with a massive adoption increase and a big protocol upgrade.

The FOMO inflection point, once crossed, will catapult price to $220,000 in 2021
https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/1410636814671486976?s=21

FOMO inflection point <- exactly this! The critical moment when inflation becomes high enough to make huge masses of people worried and while looking for a fiat exit realizes Bitcoin is now the best option.

EDIT:

Since many people have resistance against Bitcoin due to mainstream propaganda, perhaps the best approach is to spread true information about inflation, the real figures, and potential hyperinflation (for dramatic effect, explain what a bank run is), the result will be the same, all roads lead to Bitcoin.
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July 01, 2021, 06:40:57 PM

prediction for the year 2021 - at least one new ath every month Grin


january 2021 - check✔
february 2021 - check✔
march 2021 - check✔
april 2021 - check✔
may 2021 - failed✖
june 2021 - failed✖ - i think i will have to use a better crystal ball next year Tongue
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[...]

By the way, my understanding is that the difficulty adjustment is maxed out at 25% down [...]


The limits of the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment are up 4X (+300%) and down 1/4X (-75%):



https://twitter.com/girevik_/status/1410594549987119115
https://twitter.com/thefuckisalommy/status/1409508894917943296
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July 01, 2021, 06:48:41 PM

It would make a little sense to conserve as much while spreading it out through the day, so maybe the smallest tablet you can consume taken several times in a day. Something like 100 mg per hour x 24 = 2.4 grams in a day, which is close to the maximum without "wasting" ... some studies show about half may get wasted through pills.

Some tabs have slits in them, so you can use a vitamin cutter to split a tab in half.

But all this might be too much work, LOL, so just get the smallest you can swallow and use that. The tabs I got are 1000 mg each, I've seen 500 mg tabs too.

Or simply use time-release pills. So much easier and more evenly consumed.
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July 01, 2021, 06:50:50 PM

The limits of the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment are up 4X (+300%) and down 1/4X (-75%):
Those are reciprocal.  In effect the same.
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July 01, 2021, 06:51:31 PM
Last edit: July 02, 2021, 02:27:39 PM by JayJuanGee
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...

I've just bought for 500€ and I will keep doing that DCA each month until I retire. My advise for bigger sums is to divide them at least in 3 parts and buying now with the first part. In case the price falls enough, fire the next buy and so on.

You cannot just retire early, ivomm?

I am going to create a hypothetical that is not necessarily meant to be your situation, but let's say for example you have a pension that is $50k per year and it has a bunch of other perks that cause it to go up another 50% , so it is really worth around $75k per year of already earned money once your retirement date comes, so you do not feel comfortable leaving that on the table, but you have a BTC stash that is something like 100BTC, so you feel pretty good about the BTC having a current value of $3.3 million (income of $132k) ($33k BTC prices), and currently with BTC volatility uncertainties, you might want to value the BTC ONLY at the 208-week moving average of $13,333 - so therefore only $1.33 million (income of $53.2k).

But if BTC prices were to go up to $500k and then correct back down to $100k, at some point the 208-week moving average is going to move up to $100k too.. and that would cause some amount of certainty that your BTC stash is worth several multiples in excess of the pension that you might end up leaving on the table, no?  In other words, valuing BTC at $100k would cause a $10 million BTC portfolio value (income of $400k).  At some point, the pension would start to seem like peanuts compared to the value of freedom, no?

I understand that some people still do get some pleasures from their jobs, but there is a breaking point at some price point, too, no?  Those breaking points need to be considered no, whether it is having assurances of 2x the salary, 10x the salary or 50x the salary?  or some other breaking point to cause a desire to split away from current job duties and activities or maybe just renegotiate the terms, perhaps?

Well, I have 17 years to my retirement and there is no possiblity of an early retirement with a pension in my country. So, I guess, I will need something like 17x4 yearly salaries to live comfortably, but I won't be able to afford a big house or lambo (Audi e-tron GT tops). Currently my networth is around that sum, so I guess I'm alright.

Of course, I am a little bit confused by your description, relevantly in terms of how much you believe that you need to reach a kind of fuck you status or to potentially replace a lost income that would come from saying fuck you early and then not being able to draw from such income that would have come from just finishing your remaining 17 years.

So, of course, it depends from where you measure and also I believe that some assumptions can be made differently in bitcoin - even if surely I would not be proclaiming that we still might NOT be doing our evaluation in terms of anticipated fiat value.

Instead of using your 17 years and the early assumption of $75k, let's just attempt to arrive at our tried and true $2 million (which is 20 years x $100k).  I really am not sure why you would need 4x that amount, because it seems to me that if you can arrive at $2million by using something like the 208-week moving average, then you could likely draw a perpetual income of at least $6,666k per month.. and that would be likely going up at 10% or more per year - if we use the 208-week moving average.. which sure, currently requires about 150 BTC in order to reach $2million in value, so if you do not have 150 BTC, then we just consider at what point in time will you reach the requisite number of BTC to cross over the $2 million threshold.  I had already done the math in an earlier post and came up with these numbers to consider how many BTC is required to have a value of $2 million at the 208-week moving average and using a 12% per year (showing every 6 months) appreciation of the 208-week moving average (why reinvent the wheel?):

Start $             StartDate            % gain /time            Time (every 6months)            Goal
$13,333.33         6/25/21                    6.00%                    182.6 days                            $2,000,000


Date                              Price                        gain/time                     BTC#/Goal
6/25/21                          $13,333.33                 $800.00                            150.00003750
12/24/21                        $14,133.33                 $848.00                            141.50946934
6/25/22                        $14,981.33                 $898.88                            133.49949938
12/24/22                        $15,880.21                 $952.81                            125.94292394
6/25/23                        $16,833.02                 $1,009.98                            118.81407919
12/25/23                        $17,843.00                 $1,070.58                            112.08875395
6/24/24                        $18,913.58                 $1,134.82                            105.74410750
12/24/24                        $20,048.40                 $1,202.90                            99.75859198
6/24/25                        $21,251.30                 $1,275.08                            94.11187923
12/24/25                        $22,526.38                 $1,351.58                            88.78479173
6/25/26                        $23,877.96                 $1,432.68                            83.75923748
12/24/26                        $25,310.64                 $1,518.64                            79.01814856
6/25/27                        $26,829.28                 $1,609.76                            74.54542317
12/24/27                        $28,439.04                 $1,706.34                            70.32587092
6/24/28                        $30,145.38                 $1,808.72                            66.34516124
12/24/28                        $31,954.10                 $1,917.25                            62.58977476
6/24/29                        $33,871.35                 $2,032.28                            59.04695732
12/24/29                        $35,903.63                 $2,154.22                            55.70467672
6/24/30                        $38,057.85                 $2,283.47                            52.55158181
12/24/30                        $40,341.32                 $2,420.48                            49.57696397
6/25/31                        $42,761.80                 $2,565.71                            46.77072073
12/24/31                        $45,327.50                 $2,719.65                            44.12332144
6/24/32                        $48,047.15                 $2,882.83                            41.62577494
12/23/32                        $50,929.98                 $3,055.80                            39.26959900
6/24/33                        $53,985.78                 $3,239.15                            37.04679151
12/24/33                        $57,224.93                 $3,433.50                            34.94980331
6/24/34                        $60,658.42                 $3,639.51                            32.97151256
12/24/34                        $64,297.93                 $3,857.88                            31.10520053
6/24/35                        $68,155.81                 $4,089.35                            29.34452880
12/24/35                        $72,245.15                 $4,334.71                            27.68351774
6/24/36                        $76,579.86                 $4,594.79                            26.11652617
12/23/36                        $81,174.65                 $4,870.48                            24.63823223
6/24/37                        $86,045.13                 $5,162.71                            23.24361531
12/23/37                        $91,207.84                 $5,472.47                            21.92793897
6/24/38                        $96,680.31                 $5,800.82                            20.68673488
12/24/38                        $102,481.13                 $6,148.87                            19.51578762
6/24/39                        $108,630.00                 $6,517.80                            18.41112040
12/24/39                        $115,147.80                 $6,908.87                            17.36898151
6/23/40                        $122,056.67                 $7,323.40                            16.38583161
12/23/40                        $129,380.07                 $7,762.80                            15.45833171
6/24/41                        $137,142.87                 $8,228.57                            14.58333180
12/23/41                        $145,371.44                 $8,722.29                            13.75786019

So yeah, from the chart, if you were to "ONLY" have 100 BTC, then there is a projection that the 208-week moving average would not reach that point until late 2024 (but of course, you might already have 100 BTC now, or you might anticipate by 2024, you would be able to reach 100 BTC with continued BTC accumulation, perhaps?  Perhaps?).


The first 17-year sum I've already cashed out just to be sure in case I lose my job, which is quite possible now.

Very fair to have some kind of decent emergency fund and account for a wide variety of possibilities, even extreme ones - hopefully you are not unnecessarily HODLing too much value in cash, though.


I have a goverment job which requires me to be in the office only 6-7 hours per week and with a huge 6 months yearly vacation. But the problems are 3. First, the government can shut us down. Second, my boss is an asshole and is stealing from his employes. So I have a choice to be silent and get what he gives me, or to be vocal and lose my job. Third, I have 4-5 illnesses which are not life treatening for now, but our health system is horrible and I can't get a proper treatment. For these reasons, I am looking for another country, where to move after say a couple of years, living only with the profit of my Bitcoins. I am thinking about Greece and Spain, where the real estates are very cheap, even cheaper than in my poor country.

Fair enough.. so it is appearing as if the odds are NOT really high that you are going to be able to last another 17 years in that job, anyhow... so surely your continuing to build your BTC and to consider how to potentially employ your BTC options remains quite powerful to you and possibly gives you options in circumstances that would have been more dire without having had built your BTC reserves.

All this will be possible if the price goes above 100K, which will happen in the next months or 1-2 years, I guess.
Sure it is possible, but personally I have problems with the idea of making significant and meaningful plans around BTC tops, unless you are planning on cashing out some or all of your BTC based on such tops, which I doubt that many of us longer term BTC HODLers plan to do (at least not cashing out all of our BTC at such tops).. .. but sure, BTC reaching certain price points does potentially allow for various kinds of diversification (by cashing out some at or near such tops) and also helps to ensure that the 208-week moving average continues to move up (so far, moving up 12% per year seems pretty damned solid in my consideration of that 208-week moving average metric).. which allows the contemplation of taking actions based on the worser case scenario BTC price bottoms rather than price tops.

I the meantime I enjoy donating small sums to various organizations and buying for myself computer stuff and quality guitar equipment. My latest purchase arrived yesterday - a Gretsch guitar. I'm a big ACDC fan and enjoy playing their music at home and with my friends.

Oh... for sure there is value to be continuing to live based on various passions.. for sure, for sure.


I feel  happy with every direction Bitcoin takes.

It seems likely that the longer that we have been in bitcoin, the more we have been likely to build some kind of baseline stash of bitcoin and also ways of attempting to be prepared for whichever direction BTC prices might take in the short term especially.  Even though in theory it should be more likely to get to a kind of bitcoin zen, in practice it can sometimes be a bit difficult for some of us to deal with 50% plus price corrections within what was supposed to have been a bull run.. but still point taken that some people are more able than others in such regard, and the longer in BTC the more likely the easier to have prepared oneself both financially and psychologically for such.

I continue mining and buying Bob-alike degenerade style.

I doubt that aspiring to a Bob-like style would be good for too many folks, especially the aspects of selling low and buying high... but sure if you are already in profits, then maybe there can be some value in some of the shaving off of significant portions of BTC to live the life and consume.

Of course, none of us should be begrudging anyone who is sufficiently in profits to be able to spend in BIG ways.. but at the same time, if someone has not yet reached the spending stages (still in a kind of BTC accumulation/maintenance stage rather than liquidation stage), they are likely better assisted by figuring out various ways to continue to accumulate, rather than talking about the various ways to spend fortunes in a way that they have not quite reached - and surely, the longer that bitcoin exists, the more likely there are going to be WO thread participant members who are in varying levels of their bitcoin life including cashing out.. and surely one of the strange things about Bawb is that he has been claiming to cash out high amounts at various points, and then making a big deal about continuing to accumulate at higher price levels.. To me, it seems fairly inconsistent and not a kind of mania to aspire towards. and better to be a bit more level with a cashing out plan and NOT to be buying later at higher prices because of regrets of selling too much too early..


Bitcoin has already changed my life. Now I have much bigger confidence. In my poor country I naturally started with much smaller investment compared to the western world. But the current situation is that if I cash out everything now, I will enter the list with 900 richest people in my country. So I go to shops, buy and don't care about the price. I often interrupt the salers, who are used to offer cheap stuff, and I order the most expensive things, like glasses, tablets (galaxy S7+ is a beast by the way), etc.  

For sure, before actually reaching "fuck you" status, there can be a lot of options that become increasingly noticeable along the way, including that sometimes you want to get better quality items and that can become more and more apparent when you know that you have resources to not be treating yourself with cheap crap. . but you have resources, to UP your standard of living.  Of course, sometimes also there is going to be value in NOT drawing attention to yourself, too...
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July 01, 2021, 06:53:22 PM

Just read it’s the 100th Anniversary of the CCP today. Hopefully their influence on anything bitcoin related is nearly over.

Any way, here’s some HOPIUM -


@maxkeiser
The #Bitcoin   hash is undergoing a seismic, global redistribution along with a massive adoption increase and a big protocol upgrade.

The FOMO inflection point, once crossed, will catapult price to $220,000 in 2021
https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/1410636814671486976?s=21

So far Max Kaiser hopium has been about exactly one cycle too late... He was saying "35k is in play!" circa 2018.  And he was right!  Today.

Let's hope he is in the right epoch this time.  I actually think so. I think it's in the mass case. I think fringe case is quite a bit higher.
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July 01, 2021, 07:01:26 PM


Explanation
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July 01, 2021, 07:12:54 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

Ok China left a bitcoin mining blackhole upon us.
But I ain't see any disruption.
Let's move on.

You  can move on all that you like.

I doubt that an attack would have to be obvious, and could take a few difficulties before actually becoming obvious or apparent... sure the odds may well be even less than 30% or even less than 10-15%, but surely not anywhere near low enough to ignore completely.

I thought I was fine until I looked back and realized thats why I did a bunch of stupid ass shit.

Tell us something new.

 Tongue Tongue


[...]

By the way, my understanding is that the difficulty adjustment is maxed out at 25% down [...]


The limits of the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment are up 4X (+300%) and down 1/4X (-75%):



https://twitter.com/girevik_/status/1410594549987119115
https://twitter.com/thefuckisalommy/status/1409508894917943296


Ok... Thanks for clarifying that.  For sure, I will be watching out, and so in the next day and 1/3 (approximately 28-34 hours), I will be expecting to be seeing around a 27.5% or so adjustment downward in the hashrate... not even close to the adjustment of 75% downward maximum.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/
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July 01, 2021, 07:23:08 PM


My antennas are literally vibrating.
Gregor Samsa woke up with antennas on his head one morning.  Don't be like him.
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Explanation
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July 01, 2021, 08:54:22 PM

prediction for the year 2021 - at least one new ath every month Grin


january 2021 - check✔
february 2021 - check✔
march 2021 - check✔
april 2021 - check✔
may 2021 - failed✖
june 2021 - failed✖ - i think i will have to use a better crystal ball next year Tongue


Well ... it would have been more optimistic to just say that... " this year we will have at least 6 months of ATH." ... and you wouldn't have been beating yourself so hard about it. Tongue .. Also... don't beat yourself too much about it. Tongue .. It's fine! THIS IS FINE!!! Cheesy Cheesy .... Sold at 55 < > 64K ... bought back at around 35K ... THIS IS FINE!!! Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

But I do feel that greed is a plague. You can't get enough of it. And you always want more. Sad Sad
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July 01, 2021, 09:01:35 PM


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heslo
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July 01, 2021, 09:28:03 PM


rofl that's EXACTLY what popped into my head too
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July 01, 2021, 10:01:26 PM


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