Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

ok so this poll

"Which price is bitcoin going to reach first? 25k or 50k (credits to Jay) "  

like i hope it concludes at some point, this year even, maybe. this ever sideways between those values is making me dizzy.

I'm gonna repeat that my numbers had been thrown a little bit off in that poll, mostly because when I sent those numbers to infofront, the BTC price had not yet gone below $30k, so my sense of what the upper and lower bounds had been affected by the timing of my sending the numbers to infofront.

After the BTC price went below $30k, and went as low as $28,600, I came to develop an idea that maybe the lower number of $25k might need to be moved down, but hey I am willing to live with (conceptually) keeping the lower number as $25k.. that's fine, even if the odds of reaching such lower number had become higher likelihood after going below $30k, but even if we stick with the lower number at $25k, it still seems to me that realistically the higher number of $50k should come down too (based on the fact that we had gone below $30k for several hours), so it seems that effectively we would be quite likely to be out of the sideways doldrums in the event that we were to break above $46k.. so really the more realistic numbers of the poll (even at the time of publishing the poll) should have been $25k and $46k, because it seems quite likely if we are able to break above $46k, we should have a decently high level of confidence that the "bottom is in."

On the other hand, if we break below $25k, I would think that the next area of support would be in the supra $20k arena.. but breaking below $25k, would probably drag out this correction a quite a bit longer and even cause resistant folks like yours truly to be considering that we might be in a bear market... but sure, there would also be a difference in how to consider the whole matter in the event that we were to experience a quickie spike below $25k with volume that pushes the BTC price back up quickly versus some kind of longer drawn out getting stuck below $25k for several days or even for several weeks... so yeah, hoping none of those sub-$25k scenarios happen, even though probably at this particular time (as I type this post) we could still have some ongoing conceptualization that $25k and $46k remain as our current parameters to continue to consider.. and $50k would be even more icing on the UPpity cake rather than having any kind of meaningful significance.. because getting above $46k would quite likely be more than enough (however, difficult that $46k number might seem at this particular point when we are bouncing down to feeling like depressing price of testing lows of $31,607 in the past several minutes, as I have been typing this post).

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

The price is to damn low….


Though price is giving me a pleasant feeling as well, remember the moment buying BTC on the low and having a bearmarket where previous lower buyers where in the situation I’m in now…. The price is to damn low but much more comfortable as previous 3 years  

I consider never seeing Vegeta again as a major win.

Well, gosh I hardly know what to say... but that has not stopped me in the past... so why start now?

I surely have a tentative hypothesis that the 208-week (that is 4 years worth of weekly averages) moving average (which is around $13,600 as I type this post) should be in the vicinity of the absolute bottom during a bear market, but who the fuck says that we are in a bear market?  I am not going to concede that we are in a bear market, yet.

So, if we are still in a bull market, then maybe we are already in lower price territories than would seem reasonable under the consideration of normal asset classes, but bitcoin ain't no normal asset class.  So perhaps, we could use the 104-week moving average (and that would be 2 years worth of weekly averages) in order to consider a more reasonable absolute low.  The 104 week moving average is barely above $20k, and sure that could be possible as an absolute low in a bull market, even if the vast majority of us would prefer not to go there... but since when did king daddy require any kind of vote to decide where it was going or how long it might stay there.

I will concede that even getting significantly in the $20ks, and especially into the lower $20k, there is going to be very decent likelihoods of shaking a whole lot of weak hands, and gosh that could well be the purgengining of shitcoin froth that is likely to be quite healthy for the whole space - especially the various snot nosed 14 year olds investing in doge coin or the dumb-ass supposedly smart (technologically astute) people investing into ethereum and its various scam-related (innovative ways to carry out pyramid schemes) products.

So, sure we could be in for some good for the health purgenings (or would it be enemas?), even though I am not even saying that DOWN before UP is actually necessary in bitcoin and is not even necessary to purge some shitcoins.  We surely had some shitcoin purgenings between  April and June of 2019 without bitcoin suffering along with the shit, yet on the other hand, this situation that we are in might be different, especially given that we were experiencing UP together along with a large number of shitcoins (including that dumbass doge coin project) that likely could cause more extreme corrections to bring some kind of foundation back to what is reasonable in terms of value assessments.  There is almost no way, besides being funzies, that such a unsound money such as doge coin should be able to hold value for very long including rewarding the thousands of snot-nosed 14-year olds investing into it with hookers, lambos and blow.. just doesn't seem right. .. but hey. lots of weird things have been happening in the past year or so, and we cannot expect run of the mill happenings in the world, especially during a wealth transfer situation.. talking about bitcoin as the main gravitational force that is likely playing out in good amounts in the coming 20 to 60 years (that would be 1-2 generations if we consider a generation to be in the ball park of 20-30 years)...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[proudhon]

We're all in agreement that this is about to get ugly, right?

[Hueristic]

The price is to damn low….


Though price is giving me a pleasant feeling as well, remember the moment buying BTC on the low and having a bearmarket where previous lower buyers where in the situation I’m in now…. The price is to damn low but much more comfortable as previous 3 years  

I consider never seeing Vegeta again as a major win.

Well, gosh I hardly know what to say... but that has not stopped me in the past... so why start now?

Hahaha, no I'm not bearish I'm just saying last year was in that range so fucking long never seeing that range again makes all the rest gravy.

I still think we will see $50k before $25k, actually I will be surprised if we ever see $27500 again.

[ImThour]

We're all in agreement that this is about to get ugly, right?

My DCA strat says it's not ugly at all. 

[JayJuanGee]

We're all in agreement that this is about to get ugly, right?

Yep.

confirmed.

The price is to damn low….


Though price is giving me a pleasant feeling as well, remember the moment buying BTC on the low and having a bearmarket where previous lower buyers where in the situation I’m in now…. The price is to damn low but much more comfortable as previous 3 years  

I consider never seeing Vegeta again as a major win.

Well, gosh I hardly know what to say... but that has not stopped me in the past... so why start now?

Hahaha, no I'm not bearish I'm just saying last year was in that range so fucking long never seeing that range again makes all the rest gravy.

For sure, I did not want to consider your statement as bearish because like you said, you were referring to a number that is pretty highly likely to never be seen again.. I am going to never say never (so that probably makes me somewhat more bearish than you, relatively speaking because I am willing to accept and entertain the idea, even though it has a pretty damned low number), even though we can appreciate that the odds of Vegetta remain pretty damned low and likely so low that we need not be giving them any kind of airplay.... but of course, also like you said, there are a lot of peeps who actually assign way higher likelihood to such a number than it deserves..

I still think we will see $50k before $25k, actually I will be surprised if we ever see $27500 again.

That's how I voted.. even though I believe that $46k is the number that we are looking for, as I already mentioned.

We are so damned close to hitting $28,600 (within striking distance as a matter of percentage) that I am not going to rest with any kind of calmness in terms of $46k being in the bag in contrast to $25k.. and sure.. I am not even sure if the odds could be much of a percentage or two from 50/50 in the whole scheme of things.  Sad to say... call me a bear (or a beaten up bull), if you must.   

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We're all in agreement that this is about to get ugly, right?

Looks like it.

Got a feeling we’re cooked for another 3/4 years. No heartbeat at all.



I hope I’m wrong & we bounce, this is really getting me down. Not selling though!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

We're all in agreement that this is about to get ugly, right?

Looks like it.

Got a feeling we’re cooked for another 3/4 years. No heartbeat at all.



I hope I’m wrong & we bounce, this is really getting me down. Not selling though!

How's the range rover, though?


hahahahahahaha

Bitcoin has been berry berry good to me...

hahahahahaha

[OutOfMemory]

We're all in agreement that this is about to get ugly, right?

Looks like it.

Got a feeling we’re cooked for another 3/4 years. No heartbeat at all.



I hope I’m wrong & we bounce, this is really getting me down. Not selling though!

Why would you?
If you need the money, to build a farm or whatever, OK.

These IRS "news" are ... interesting.
When conflicting with any kind of state authority, it's ALWAYS best to say nothing and let the lawyer(s) fight the case.

EDIT: Anyone else heard of that 51% attack on BSV network yet? Faketoshi and Childfuxxer getting what they deserve, finally?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We’ve all been through times like this in bitcoin many times, doesn’t make it any better though. I think deep down I know we’ll still make new ATH’s in 2021. I’m such a pessimist though, price action sucks atm.

I miss muh green dildos & memes.

[JayJuanGee]

We’ve all been through times like this in bitcoin many times, doesn’t make it any better though. I think deep down I know we’ll still make new ATH’s in 2021. I’m such a pessimist though, price action sucks atm.

I miss muh green dildos & memes.

Soon^tm

maybe a bit longer than two weeks, but soon enuff.... in the whole scheme of things.

Just think about how we were lingering in the sub 4 digits for nearly 3 years... talking about 2014, 2015 and 2016...

who would have thunk that stocking up on a few lilly fiends would put us in a more than 30x profit position in less than 7 years (and that is assuming buying at $999)...

Sure, we knew that it was within the realms of possibilities, but holy shit.. a nation state (talking about El Salvador) is making all of its businesses accept bitcoin, and if any BIGGER international businesses are in El Salvador, they will have to consider whether they are going to accept bitcoin or leave the country... sure the rebellious of them will just accept bitcoin and convert to dollars, but whatever, it is a great situation to witnesses - even if from a distance as a mere HODLer of our lil fiend.  watch them squirm.. as you are sitting quite pretty with some lil fiends in your wallet and some of those squirmers are pure no coiners considering how to catch up to some HODLers who are merely holding a few wee coins.. that may have cost a few thousand dollars a mere 7 years ago... Think about some of the folks who got 21 coins in the sub $300 price range.. (which was easy peasy for the vast majority of 2015) that's "only" a $6,300 investment to get 21 coins, but now millionnaires are scrambling and trying to figure out how to get that their grubby lil paws on that quantity of coins (21-ish).. good luck with that, sub millionnaires.. gonna take some time to get to 21 coins plus, if you can.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

The price is to damn low….

Though price is giving me a pleasant feeling as well, remember the moment buying BTC on the low and having a bearmarket where previous lower buyers where in the situation I’m in now…. The price is to damn low but much more comfortable as previous 3 years  

I consider never seeing Vegeta again as a major win.

Well, gosh I hardly know what to say... but that has not stopped me in the past... so why start now?

Hahaha, no I'm not bearish I'm just saying last year was in that range so fucking long never seeing that range again makes all the rest gravy.

For sure, I did not want to consider your statement as bearish because like you said, you were referring to a number that is pretty highly likely to never be seen again.. I am going to never say never (so that probably makes me somewhat more bearish than you, relatively speaking because I am willing to accept and entertain the idea, even though it has a pretty damned low number), even though we can appreciate that the odds of Vegetta remain pretty damned low and likely so low that we need not be giving them any kind of airplay.... but of course, also like you said, there are a lot of peeps who actually assign way higher likelihood to such a number than it deserves..

I still think we will see $50k before $25k, actually I will be surprised if we ever see $27500 again.

That's how I voted.. even though I believe that $46k is the number that we are looking for, as I already mentioned.

We are so damned close to hitting $28,600 (within striking distance as a matter of percentage) that I am not going to rest with any kind of calmness in terms of $46k being in the bag in contrast to $25k.. and sure.. I am not even sure if the odds could be much of a percentage or two from 50/50 in the whole scheme of things.  Sad to say... call me a bear (or a beaten up bull), if you must.   

Busy busy busy... But I always (try to) catch up with WO, my only source of Bitcoin info and related wisdom.

Nice analysis in your earlier post Jay, and I read Hueristic's reply too.

I also voted $50k before $25k.

For what it's worth (and it ain't worth much), I was at my 75" TV cousin's house yesterday for our usual BBQ. He is adamant that Bitcoin will drop below $20k, and even reach as low as $12k (but not lower than that).

Well, if the above comes true, so much the better for me, as I will surely be adding a healthy chunk of coin to my stash.

Keep it up guys, always a pleasure to read you. And take good care of the Singing Llama^TM, probably the only meaningful price predictor left in WO.

[OutOfMemory]

We’ve all been through times like this in bitcoin many times, doesn’t make it any better though. I think deep down I know we’ll still make new ATH’s in 2021. I’m such a pessimist though, price action sucks atm.

I miss muh green dildos & memes.

You're just preparing yourself to get excited 
How can one experience fun when he never learned to cry. (My stupid simplification of a chinese proverb)

Unpopular opinion: Troubled waters until 21st of July. I'll hodl my coins and save some fiat until then 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."

[somac.]

We’ve all been through times like this in bitcoin many times, doesn’t make it any better though. I think deep down I know we’ll still make new ATH’s in 2021. I’m such a pessimist though, price action sucks atm.

I miss muh green dildos & memes.

You're just preparing yourself to get excited  
How can one experience fun when he never learned to cry. (My stupid simplification of a chinese proverb)

Unpopular opinion: Troubled waters until 21st of July. I'll hodl my coins and save some fiat until then  

I'm in LFC's boat. Pretty sure we are feeling the exact same feelings with the price action the last few months and all I can say is it sucks.

Of course long-term we both know where this is going, but, as they say "waiting is the hardest part".