Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Karartma1]

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merited and applauded, always spot on my friend

[1713557629]

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[cygan]

prediction for the year 2021 - at least one new ath every month

january 2021 - check✔

february 2021 - check✔

march 2021 - check✔

april 2021 - check✔

may 2021 - failed✖

june 2021 - failed✖ - i think i will have to use a better crystal ball next year

july 2021 - failed✖ 

[fillippone]

<…>
Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels.

#bitcoin July closing price $41,490 ... it bounced from the lows, like clockwork

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1421725631365238785

Great analysis +5WO merits (Fillipone has been too generous last month, Filippone cannot handle his merits stash and he’s out of merits for next week).

Regarding PlanB, his charts have nothing to do with adoptions. They are competing observed price with a protocol induced-intrinsic feature of Bitcoin: Stock to flow.

All I know about stock to flow is here:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Regarding PlanB himself… when he now says, “like clockwork” hasn’t to be meant literally, as price is quite off, by historical means, from model price: terrible buying opportunity or model next to breaking?

Oh boy, my spider sense tell me it’s the former!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[machasm]

Chart buddy interrupt

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

[Hhampuz]

~image

I've heard of the death cross before, but what's a golden cross? Sounds yummy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Looks like it might be an interesting night.

Or not.

[suchmoon]

~image

I've heard of the death cross before, but what's a golden cross? Sounds yummy

It's the opposite of a death cross, i.e. shorter MA crossing longer MA upwards. It's a bit of a stretch to use it with a 4h chart but this is Bitcoin, we can do whatever we want, as long as we can say that the number will go up.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels.

Plan B is criticized for having a model that fails to account for adoption levels, and only accounts for supply levels.

So in the basic supply and demand formula, Plan B is presumed to ONLY account for one side of the dynamic, yet in some sense, there could be some redemption to suggest that PlanB's model assumes demand as a constant and that it will always exist... so sure his model might fail if demand goes way up or way down and demand ends up NOT being the constant that seems to be implied in his model(s).

Hopefully, I am not misstating one of the commonly repeated presumption of ongoing demand criticisms of PlanB's model.

Filippone cannot handle his merits stash and he’s out of merits for next week.

gotta laugh at this one, for sure...

Regarding PlanB, his charts have nothing to do with adoptions. They are competing observed price with a protocol induced-intrinsic feature of Bitcoin: Stock to flow.

All I know about stock to flow is here:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Regarding PlanB himself… when he now says, “like clockwork” hasn’t to be meant literally, as price is quite off, by historical means, from model price: terrible buying opportunity or model next to breaking?

Oh boy, my spider sense tell me it’s the former!

Of course, that thread link is a great reference to attempt to devolve into stock to flow analysis - even though I still remain of the opinion that stock to flow has never been close to breaking, and so whatever, I might be getting into linguistics a wee bit, because personally, if the price were to underperform and stay in this range or lower until the end of this year, then sure maybe some of the curves of the model would need to be shifted downward.. but I would still not concede that the model would be broken, even if it were required to be shifted downwardly in order to have better co-integration of data to the projections.

Another aspect is that there may well be some pretty powerful folks (whether we refer to them as bearwhales, governments, status quo financial institutions, other entities/persons who would like to cripple or kill bitcoin, those who want to manipulate bitcoin to make a profit, or some combination of these folks/entities) who would like to provide both factual and proclamation evidence that stock to flow is broken... yeah, play around what they like, they might get lucky in killing/crippling bitcoin, but the more likely outcome is that bitcoin prices are going to revert back to the mean of the stock to flow model, even if it could experience extended periods of divergence... 6-24 months or even longer, perhaps? perhaps?

~image

I've heard of the death cross before, but what's a golden cross? Sounds yummy

It's the opposite of a death cross, i.e. shorter MA crossing longer MA upwards. It's a bit of a stretch to use it with a 4h chart but this is Bitcoin, we can do whatever we want, as long as we can say that the number will go up.

That's exactly correct suchmoon.. even though you were coming off as a bit of a smartass.... but in any event, one of the three BTC price prediction models has exponential s-curve adoption built into it, so if any of us appreciates that exponential s-curve adoption actually applies to bitcoin, then we also will realize that all roads lead to UPpity... that is not a bug.. it's a feature... so you can push bad boy down and down and down and even get away with pushing it down for a considerable amount of time (beyond expectations).. but sooner or later (sometimes scaring out a lot of the wanna get-rich-quick and emotional types) bad boy is going to spring back up.. it's in the underlying design...

[Torque]

Of course, that thread link is a great reference to attempt to devolve into stock to flow analysis - even though I still remain of the opinion that stock to flow has never been close to breaking, and so whatever, I might be getting into linguistics a wee bit, because personally, if the price were to underperform and stay in this range or lower until the end of this year, then sure maybe some of the curves of the model would need to be shifted downward.. but I would still not concede that the model would be broken, even if it were required to be shifted downwardly in order to have better co-integration of data to the projections.

Another aspect is that there may well be some pretty powerful folks (whether we refer to them as bearwhales, governments, status quo financial institutions, other entities/persons who would like to cripple or kill bitcoin, those who want to manipulate bitcoin to make a profit, or some combination of these folks/entities) who would like to provide both factual and proclamation evidence that stock to flow is broken... yeah, play around what they like, they might get lucky in killing/crippling bitcoin, but the more likely outcome is that bitcoin prices are going to revert back to the mean of the stock to flow model, even if it could experience extended periods of divergence... 6-24 months or even longer, perhaps? perhaps?

I agree. I believe the S2F model is sound...for now.

PlanB is given quite the runway in that the price still has all the way to 2023-2024 to violently correct upwards to the mean trend line and still be in play.

If it doesn't after that, well then, the model will be broken.

I feel that tracking "adoption" vs. price is meaningless at this point, as retail Average Joe investors as a group have an insignificant/inconsequential amount of price pressure capability compared to high net worth, big finance, and institutional adoption.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

We might get a 9th green day in a row... 

I like u'r quote... ... Anyway.... Anything less then 45K in the next 24 hours is unacceptable!!!!!!!  Ce n'est PAS POSSIBLE !!!! Macabréeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!!!    

(excuse my french... ... got carried away... I'm impatient AF! for 70K+ ) ...    


                 

[Toxic2040]

Shut up ChartBuddy, George Soros never said that; besides who said you had to take his opinion as fact. Nobody's holding a gun to your head, believe what you want to believe. It's a free country despite what statists like you have to say.

Is the one you call "ChartBuddy" here in the room with us now?

+1 WOsMerit


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Recent candle
[img=44]https://i.imgur.com/Hx4JOTN.png[/img]

Currently, the market is going up a lot  We hope that the market will cross $75000 teams in a very short time.

Are the ones you call 'teams' here in the room with us now? 


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$160k+ by December 31st, 2024?
possible
 

Seems a wee bit bearish and conservative, but whatevers... still in the positive direction.. to get another 4x+-ish in 3.5 years...

Way better than 6% price appreciation per year.. for example.

#justsaying

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The current situation reminds me so much of the spring of 2017. Then the leading exchange Bitfinex had problems with the banks and the fiat withdrawals were suspended for 3 months. The users converted usdt to BTC and reversed the trend from negative to positive. Because of that they didn't convert back to fiat and the price went from below 1K up to nearly 3K. Now the leading exchange Binance has similar issues, although withdrawals are not banned. But nontheless the users prefer to convert usdt to BTC and leave the exchange because of the coming derivate suspension and because of the fiat limits/fees and difficulties related to usdt wallets. And since the trend has changed, they won't convet back to usd or usdt on other exchanges immediately. This may turn to be a major boost for this bull run, since it is not caused only by the whales but from millions of users around the world.

Another factor for the current bull run is that many peeps  sold at  30K with the intention to buy at 20K and even lower. Now they see this plan didn't work so they have no choice but to buy higher.

And of course the mass adoption explosion is also an important factor. The number of BTC users has doubled in the last 6 months, adding 2 mil per day new users. According to 2 surveys I've read, the percentage of users has increased from 1% to 2% worldwide only in the last 6 months. The previous doubling needed 10 months. And we are still far far away from the real mass adoption above 80%, which will happen in the coming years. The same exact numbers apply for the institution adoption. So, as good the current situation might be, we can expect much higher prices in the next 5-10 years. The only problem which can delay this increase with up to one cycle is the large scale derivate manipulation, which we've seen in 2018-2020 and the last 2 months. Wall Street shorting companies are certainly the biggest enemy of any asset. But they can't handle the BTC 24/7/365 trading and the limited supply. So at some point their shorts will be liquidated no matter how hard they dump on the spot market. The price tends to return to the fair levels corresponding to the mass adoption with bull cycles which blow away the shorters. We see how fast the options to get BTCs are miltiplying. This leads to an increasing rate, so I would expect reaching the 80% level much sooner than we think. And if the current fair price should be around 50K-100K, then it should be 40x higher - 2-4mil. Of course, this is just an opium, there will be many FUDs and bans along the way. But still it is good to be prepared somehow if we know in general what is going to happen sometime in the near future.

Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels.

#bitcoin July closing price $41,490 ... it bounced from the lows, like clockwork

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1421725631365238785

+1 WOsMerit


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#haikusunday
Haiku, freeing mind
Observing, now building strength
For me, this is zen

At twilight, he waits
Knight watches, his roan crops grass
Tomorrow a dream

Will we wake from this?
Question not, live the moment
For is that not life?

[Kylapoiss]

I am glad I was wrong,
but does this go on?

Are we in the clear now or will there be a (proudhon) surprise?

gembitz is active again, is that a good or bad sign?

So many questions.