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Question: What happens first:
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<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26364797 times)
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August 13, 2021, 04:01:26 PM


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Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
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August 13, 2021, 04:06:09 PM
Merited by BitcoinGirl.Club (1)

After the double chartbuddy, we have a double BitcoinGirl.Club
What's with this new McDonald's hat?

$50k is not far!


Some guys just seem to love maintaining a J.O.B.

I think that they just like picking up normie girls there during the times that it is more difficult to play the baller angle.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Regarding $50k, I am kind of thinking that there might be a bit of a spurt up to $53k, if it comes at some point, but I am also thinking that $50k does not matter so much because we have already gravitated at $46k long enough to know that the bottom is quite likely to be "in" so the poll has become irrelevant in regards to feasibly reaching the downside... so whether $50k takes a few hours or a month to play out, it seems that we are at least going to get that far, and then perhaps there might be a bit of resistance between $53k and $58k and getting above $58k will likely cause difficulties in keeping the bad boy down.. and gosh it may well already be too late to keep the bad boy down since we crossed over $46k.. but I hate to be too presumptuous, too.

guys fuck you money status (to me), means this:
1-own safe, nice place you call home
2-own other things you want, maybe sailboat to get supplies to bring to your home
3-have supplies (food, medical, essentials) to live

Ok fair enough that some of us are going to have differing ideas about bare minimum entry level fuck you status, but I doubt that it is very useful to consider the matter in terms of what material level items that you have even though that is surely part of the formula to be able to have basic necessities such as food, housing and basic securities.

Yet the crux of entry level fuck you status is about being able to have control over how you spend your time, so sure some peeps do feel that they have control in maintaining a JOB.. but there is a kind of presumption that fuck you status allows you to either not have any kind of job at all or to freely choose which days to work or not and what contracts to enter into and when to do them and to control the terms of the contracts that are entered into.. so sure there is a kind of presumption that the level of wealth is sufficient to at least to cause food, housing and basic securities to be a kind of given, and material wealth beyond the basics would be at the discretion of the person but not necessarily general ideas of reaching entry level fuck you status.

So however bitcoin needed for that, maybe its a nice little self sufficient shack, maybe not.
THEN
those 3 things need to be 100% paid off, but they cost money each year, every year.  So you need a certain amount that once invested/interest bearing covers all of those costs.  If all this costs 50 000 usd a year in taxes, maintenance, supplies, etc (remember it needs to be all paid off), and a safe investment bears 3% interest.  Right now you would need about 35 Bitcoin equivalent.

Yes.. spot price of BTC at $46k does provide about $1.6 million in principle which could presume a formula of getting around 3% per year price appreciation of $50k per year income.. .. personally I believe it is risky to use spot price, and peeps in bitcoin have historically fucked up pretty damned BIGGEDly when using spot price to figure their wealth, but hey do what you want.

Then you have fuck you status because whatever happens in the world - war, pandemic, aliens, nocoiners revolution - you can never, ever, ever lose your assets or your way of life.  ever.  Everything else you do in life is literally "fuck you" because all the risk of basic material human life has been taken away and gone to 0.  This is very, very, very difficult to achieve and even people with literal tons of money don't achieve it.

Of course, it is good to consider and even deploy various protection attempts for even very extreme scenarios, but I really doubt that it is prudent to base any kind of high percentage of your life preparations on outrageous and extreme scenarios and let the perfect be the enemy of the good. In other words, there are a whole hell of a lot of ways to achieve entry level fuck you status short of having all angles 100% covered.. and many of us already live in ways that we are NOT prepared for all angles but we can still live very happy lives and continue to prepare even if we were to be at some kind of fuck you status that might not be perfect in every way.

For example, if a guy has had an income level of around $50k, and he believes that $50k is going to get him by for many years into the future, he may well get to the point that his wealth is at a level that can generate $100k per year, but he is ONLY planning to draw $50k, so the other $50k keeps folding in and compounding so that he always feels that he has a kind of 2x cushion.. of course, the numbers can vary in terms of how much is perceived to be needed, how much of a cushion might be needed and even to tweak and make adjustments along the way in terms of possible consumption levels and/or ways to generate income that might not be anything outside of quite voluntary - even if you may say that you love greeting people at Walmart for 20 hours per week; it is quite enjoyable... hahahaaha

edit:  so when central banks load up on bitcoin ?

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August 13, 2021, 04:08:52 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), fillippone (3), JayJuanGee (1)

Plan B
@100trillionUSD
BTC price AND 200 week moving average AND realized cap .. ALL rising🚀

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1426126610915368962?s=21
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August 13, 2021, 04:12:01 PM

Lawfare it is.

Best strategy is tit for tat: Start out being nice, then do unto them what they do unto you.

Works like a charm.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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August 13, 2021, 04:19:25 PM
Last edit: August 13, 2021, 04:34:01 PM by vapourminer

Tied up in a legal dispute all week with a neighbor contesting my official signed and stamped survey. Had to retain a lawyer and officially get the Sheriff's Office notified and on-site for a day next week.

How much land is in dispute?

I'm sure you'll win. Modern surveying is pretty accurate. People get funny ideas in their heads about where lines are though.

read through some old deeds (like 50+ years).. stuff like "pile of rocks at the base of the oak tree" and "tree stump at the creek bend" - pretty vague stuff all over.

of course nowadays they get it to inches (or less.. basically a mathematical zero width point)

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August 13, 2021, 04:19:41 PM

Third time trying to break through 0.5 fib retracement level not quite the charm? TD 9 still signalling a sell on Daily scale. Looks like a time to remain cautious and patient.



Some bearish divergence showing up on the 4hr and Daily, but wouldn't give too much credit to two touch-points of resistance until a third presents itself:



My guess it a small pull-back to support or boring sideways action over the weekend. Volume otherwise looks abysmal even with CMF looking healthy.
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August 13, 2021, 04:33:45 PM

The "bot" always presumes too much and then falls into the trap of its own presumptions. But the volume, the volume...

1. Sometimes an example is just an example and nothing else. I am not here to discuss my personal stash, albeit others sometimes do (hat-tip).
2. Talking with worry about potential market decline does not mean selling. It could be just that-worry about a storm while hodling.
3. Taking profit, then paying extra taxes has not been my style, that's for sure.
4. Apart from smallish irrelevant stuff, I almost NEVER sell at the loss, unless it is beneficial on a small scale (cap gains reduction) and the project or stock is dead in my eyes.

I am a btc hodler, not a subscriber to a theory of selling when it is going up and buying when it is going down. I consider that theory wrong.
I would rather borrow cash when btc is closer to a steady state level than paying almost half of the gains in taxes.
50% tax (in US) is coming, bros. They have no money and therefore have to apply the squeeze.
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August 13, 2021, 04:57:57 PM

In other news, Bitcoin hashrate is finally recovering from the pit of despair.

For sure diminishes the chances that any china attack is actually taking place or that they would be able to feasibly pull it off if they had been attempting to employ some kind of set up... Just seems less feasible to have any kind of chance of success if some kind of spiraling down hashrate were not also part of the formula.. and if hashrate is being purposefully kept off line for many months, there surely would be a lot of lost revenue from that angle, too.... so surely, the likelihood of any kind of meaningful china attack seems less and less plausible with these facts..

....and gosh, think about the whole matter in terms of what appears to be china really fucking their own people over again (this time from the mining angle) but even from the angle of having so much potential bitcoin power within their jurisdiction..that they seem to have fucked away their lil selfies, too..   I am not even saying that Chinese government people are dumb.. they are likely quite smart, but perhaps even too smart for their own good... I am sure that they have a few more plays up their sleeve.. but still?  level of likely success with some of their future plays in comparison to their various past plays?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes



Is Binance gradually becoming a drama queen? One release too many...

They are changing their wallets all the time, including where to find them. Last time I was gonna refill my card I couldn't find the spot wallet, it's now under the little head in the upper right corner.
I wish they would just stop moving things around and stop renaming them.

I lowered my holdings to under 100$ worth of mixed coins on binance.us

I will wait for it before I put serious coin back into it.

I am glad that I have reduced the percentage of my exposure on exchanges over the years.. I mean the percentage of my overall BTC value (that includes fiat value that is already largely dedicated to BTC in some kind of way) that is off exchanges has gone quite a bit up as compared/contrasted to the percentage of my overall value that is on exchanges.. but still it does sometimes creep towards adding up to a lot of value kept on exchanges, especially if considering that there might be various buy/sell orders that are already preset that go quite a bit of distance in each direction.. while at the same time.. if the BTC price goes from around $4k during the March 2020 dippening to an all time high of nearly $65k (within about 13 months), the quantity of moving around BTC (and dollars) might not have changed very much in the whole scheme of things, but the value of the account(s) would have gone up tremendously based on the mere fact that the BTC prices had gone up around 16x within a bit over a year's time. 

Of course the May 2021 price drop of BTC by more than 50% and even our current BTC prices floating in a kind of 30% below the top price arena (talking about $46k folks) does not really bring any kind of meaningful resolution of the issues regarding how much value ends up appreciating on exchanges, including the fact that there can be issues of moving money on and off of exchanges on a regular basis (whether bitcoin or cash), including the fact the money on the exchanges is not completely idle if it is taking up space in terms of various preset buy/sell orders.. and perhaps giving some flexibility beyond the preset orders.. so sometimes, I might have around 10% to 40% extra value on exchanges besides what is already folded into buy/sell orders, but that extra quantity on exchanges provides me with some flexibility too in terms of some spontaneously playing around with buy/sell order sizes or even if I might want to play with some arbitrage between exchanges or even to cause one exchange to become overly allocated in either BTC or in cash because of my own real world purposes (imagined or real.. hahahaha)... 

At some time soon, I will likely disclose some of my shenanigans of my imaged or real activities in the fucking around with moving value around, and so not wanting to sound desperate, but some UPpity in price would likely cause some of the putting to rest some of the real world dynamics and greater comforts for me to disclosed what had happened and what is in the process of "happening."  You got no real or meaningful complaints from me, even though sometimes we can imagine way better or favorable circumstances to attempt to achieve various kinds of moving around of value... so for example, if a guy were to want to buy a RR or some other utility thingie of value/pleasure.. then seems to me that such BTC HODLer kind of a guy gets way pleasure and psychological comfort in term being able to play around with such value as the BTC price be going UPpity rather than being in a correction zone.. but why we going to complain about ONLY being 3x UPpity rather than 6.5x UPpity if any of us were to have had our hands forced to cash out some of our lil fiends within the lower UPpity zone rather than the higher UPpity zone (not saying any of that happened to me, this time around.. but something like that did happen to me in November/December 2018.. and sure, I could whine and blame king daddy for that.. but it's all on me and my gambling in terms of thinking that I could cash out some of the needed cash at any time that I needed in late 2018 or early 2019, and when such lil fiend went from $6k to $4k in almost a flash (in mid November 2018), there was a realization that cashflows were not going to be met if just allowing the whims of the market matter to play out.. so mistakes were made in some of that attempt to manage cashflows and to allow a wee bit too much of the cashflow to ride in bitcoinlandia rather than cashola.. and cannot really have a lot of regrets even knowing that the cards could have been played a wee bit MOAR better -- and surely some luck (might be labelled as less than good luck) involved with that whole gambling process, too)..
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August 13, 2021, 05:01:26 PM


Explanation
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August 13, 2021, 05:07:12 PM

20ft is significant enough but I'm sure they're probably basing it off what they "know" the boundary is supposed to be. Or do they have any evidence to back their claim? Annoying for sure.

They have an old title, legal description, and survey done in the 1940's, and asked me to move a marker on a 2016 survey vs their 1940s legal description.

They should have challenged it in 2016 before I bought the property.

Ain't gonna happen.

Taking them to court over it if I have to.

Either next Thurs/Friday or week after we'll be out there to meet with the Sheriff Dept. who will be keeping the peace during the fence buildout.
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August 13, 2021, 05:10:53 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), cAPSLOCK (1), Toxic2040 (1)

As far as we know you are quoting a dead man.  He held a lot of bitcoin while he was alive, and probably lost more than many in this thread could imagine.
What an insight you shared there. I just checked the user's profile. They were last active in March. That means their demise happened recently. What a loss.

The rumor is it was a car wreck.  Truly sad.  He made lots of enemies here because he was also a thief/scammer.  He started a crypto "game" that I think used monero, but then had it's own google sheets based "currency", and he basically exit scammed, supposedly went to jail (not sure if related) and most likely lost most of it...

I had several long private conversations with him.  he was a tortured soul.  At least some of the time.

I never knew, however, that he was a violin appraiser.  Lol.






This guy more or less brought me into crypto and i enjoyed his predictions and mathematical forecasts very much! I think his game was not intended as an exit scam, i think -as i was watching the development of his castle game- he was fucked by hackers as other exchanges had been fucked also and he was fucked by poloniex also.
I am not sure if he had a car accident or if he was accidented, but yes he had some troubles with his wife and his children. RIP, i will still enjoy reading his posts and predictions saved here  Roll Eyes Wink
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August 13, 2021, 05:19:34 PM
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20ft is significant enough but I'm sure they're probably basing it off what they "know" the boundary is supposed to be. Or do they have any evidence to back their claim? Annoying for sure.

They have an old title, legal description, and survey done in the 1940's, and asked me to move a marker on a 2016 survey vs their 1940s legal description.

They should have challenged it in 2016 before I bought the property.

Ain't gonna happen.

Taking them to court over it if I have to.

Either next Thurs/Friday or week after we'll be out there to meet with the Sheriff Dept. who will be keeping the peace during the fence buildout.

Make sure you document all conversions and interactions…. Date/Time who you spoke with etc…

You don’t want to look like the aggressor in court… I don’t think the court would see it as unreasonable for them to want a second independent opinion…

Remember, going legal, only two people ever win, your lawyer and their lawyer…

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August 13, 2021, 05:36:03 PM

Tied up in a legal dispute all week with a neighbor contesting my official signed and stamped survey. Had to retain a lawyer and officially get the Sheriff's Office notified and on-site for a day next week.

How much land is in dispute?

I'm sure you'll win. Modern surveying is pretty accurate. People get funny ideas in their heads about where lines are though.
  Especially when they've been there for redneck generations, and a newcomer says it ain't so... 

Not necessarily the case, but Bob left us guessing, so...
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August 13, 2021, 05:47:09 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Quote
It is surreal that 50 years after Bretton Woods agreement effectively ended with the Nixon shock, that I’m at this grand hotel today talking about a new open decentralized monetary system that allows a peaceful transition to the future.
 #Bitcoin.



https://twitter.com/JeffBooth/status/1426153509087494152


@JeffBooth positively said bitcoin is the future transaction solution for all hotels & payment gateway, We can say that many more will be updated and everything in the future will be powered by Bitcoin, We have to wait until the time when Bitcoin will be traded as the only currency in the world, Bitcoin's position is not bad at the moment but bitcoin will expand a lot.
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August 13, 2021, 05:48:42 PM

How much land is in dispute?
I'm sure you'll win. Modern surveying is pretty accurate. People get funny ideas in their heads about where lines are though.

They are literally disputing about 20 feet on a single marker, that is holding up fence construction along a 1/3rd mile border segment.

Offered to buy their property and was shouted down.

Even offered to fix the fence at my expense, if they provide me a valid, signed and stamped survey that contests mine.

They are refusing to let me proceed until they have time to get their own survey (A pointless waiting tactic that I've had enough of)

Lawfare it is.

When I run into stuff like this I can only think that an immutable decentralised ledger of some form that publicly holds the truth of things would be so much better. All land should be on some blockchain breaking down the exact coordinates of the land. Actually, I know someone who was working on this years ago.

There's no reason people can't trade their well defined property easily.
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August 13, 2021, 05:55:36 PM

20ft is significant enough but I'm sure they're probably basing it off what they "know" the boundary is supposed to be. Or do they have any evidence to back their claim? Annoying for sure.

They have an old title, legal description, and survey done in the 1940's, and asked me to move a marker on a 2016 survey vs their 1940s legal description.

They should have challenged it in 2016 before I bought the property.

Ain't gonna happen.

Taking them to court over it if I have to.

Either next Thurs/Friday or week after we'll be out there to meet with the Sheriff Dept. who will be keeping the peace during the fence buildout.

I bet that 1940s person didn't have a laser theodolite. Please keep us informed. Always a slight possibility the 2016 is in error I suppose but I wouldn't put money on it.
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August 13, 2021, 05:57:49 PM

This guy more or less brought me into crypto and i enjoyed his predictions and mathematical forecasts very much! I think his game was not intended as an exit scam, i think -as i was watching the development of his castle game- he was fucked by hackers as other exchanges had been fucked also and he was fucked by poloniex also.
I am not sure if he had a car accident or if he was accidented, but yes he had some troubles with his wife and his children. RIP, i will still enjoy reading his posts and predictions saved here  Roll Eyes Wink

He claimed to have a bunch of bitcoin stolen at a conference IIRC. Poor guy clearly had mental issues and it's a shame he wasn't able/willing to get help.
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August 13, 2021, 06:01:36 PM


Explanation
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August 13, 2021, 06:02:02 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

When I run into stuff like this I can only think that an immutable decentralised ledger of some form that publicly holds the truth of things would be so much better. All land should be on some blockchain breaking down the exact coordinates of the land. Actually, I know someone who was working on this years ago.

There's no reason people can't trade their well defined property easily.

"Code as law" falls over pretty quickly in such cases as there is often a need for human intervention. This is a big problem I have with the grandiose claims of Eth. It definitely has a niche but will never be as widely applicable as they hope.
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August 13, 2021, 06:02:39 PM

The "bot" always presumes too much and then falls into the trap of its own presumptions. But the volume, the volume...

You conveniently forgot to say no homo, you fuck.

I knew that you really liked me, on the inside.   Wink

1. Sometimes an example is just an example and nothing else. I am not here to discuss my personal stash, albeit others sometimes do (hat-tip).

Of course, if you are going to propose differing models then you should be attempting to frame decent aspects of your differing models into reality rather than just pie in the sky bullshit.

For example, if we might be attempting to hone in on both getting to fuck you status or even figuring out what might be minimum entry level into fuck you status, I hardly find your descriptions of what it is like to be 10x, 100x or even 1,000x higher than the entry-level to be very concrete or relatable, even if there are some bguys/gals here who have likely reached those various higher levels and have also developed their own various peculiarities in terms of needing and wanting to have way more than entry level fuck you status.

2. Talking with worry about potential market decline does not mean selling. It could be just that-worry about a storm while hodling.

Yes.. we know that bitcoin tends to be quite volatile, so when you are whining about the supposed inevitability of bitcoin going down further that seems a bit much, and maybe it is worse when the BTC price has already come down quite a bit and the MOAR DOWNity is not as inevitable as you seem to be wanting to make it out to be... while you are proclaiming that you are right all the time.. which likely does talk some people into either selling coins or failing to buy as many coins as they would have otherwise... but sure, I don't have a lot of sympathy for peeps who go along with guys on the interwebs even if they are persuasive as you sometimes can be with your frequent fear-mongering whining baloney.

3. Taking profit, then paying extra taxes has not been my style, that's for sure.

Good for you.

Stocking up and really preparing (or maybe even over-preparing) for UPpity seems to NOT have been your style, either.

You must really like my earlier example of the whining curmudgeon who ONLY bought 20 BTC and the ongoing BTC investor who ended up getting 42BTC by merely DCAing for the 6 years that the curmudgeon whiner sat on his hands.  Remind you of anyone?

by the way, the whining cumudgeon who ONLY has 20BTC might feel quite reserved to sell any BTC, but they active BTC investor has 22 more BTC, and merely one of those 22BTC covers all of his costs of investing into BTC, so selling 1 or 2 BTC may well not cause such active investor to stop from enjoying the extra wealth that he has accumulated by actively investing, even if he may well have to pay taxes on almost everything that he cashes out because his tax basis is only around $867 when the price is $46,500-ish - or whatever price that s/he decides to shave off a wee bit of profits.. so having an extra 22 BTC ($1 million in value at current spot price) is not necessarily going to cause a whole hell of a lot of lost sleep if taxes might end up being in a 15% to 20% arena in cashing out $50k or $100k (in the event that s/he does decide to do it).. so if s/he ends up cashing out $100k, there is still $900k in extra profits (over the amount of profits of the curmudgeon) even if s/he was ONLY able to take away $80k and had to pay nearly $20k in taxes... .so maybe the curmudgeon has forced his lil selfie into being a curmudgeon because s/he failed/refused to invest more (or over invest) in order that the active BTC investor does not need to worry about taxes or whatever... s/he is still way better off, especially as compared with the whiner / curmudgeon.


4. Apart from smallish irrelevant stuff, I almost NEVER sell at the loss, unless it is beneficial on a small scale extra (cap gains reduction) and the project or stock is dead in my eyes.

I doubt that we really need to get into the selling at a loss issues.

There seems to be more questions about how much and how to invest and then whether it takes $2million or $10million or some higher amount to reach entry level fuck you status.. so there should be some kinds of reasonable presumptions that it could take several years - at least a whole cycle or two to reach those fuck you levels, unless you are getting into bitcoin in shorter time horizons (shorter than 4 years) and I doubt that even you are suggesting that kind of an approach to BTC investing... you seem to be more lacking in ongoing investing in fantasizing about some early lump sum bringing you to fuck you status after more cycles (or some pie in the sky pumpening hope of 1,000x price appreciation)..so seem that getting into loss issues is not even anything in the ballpark of our previous discussions in regards to getting to fuck you status and then managing fuck you status, once there (in order NOT to fall out of such status, hopefully).

I am a btc hodler, not a subscriber to a theory of selling when it is going up and buying when it is going down. I consider that theory wrong.

Good for you.  We (royal of course) already figured out that you are a kind of guy who way the fuck under invested, so you have put ur own lil selfie into your own false dilemma that does not affect those of us who had been more assertive (or aggressive) in our approach to BTC.

Relative assertiveness (aggressiveness) has paid off stupendously for many of us even if past performance does not guarantee future performance, BTC does seem to continue to be a kind of investment that will continue to reward those who are a bit more assertive and aggressive in regards to establishing their BTC holdings - and I am not even suggesting to use leverage or even to cause cashflow issues in terms of preferable practices of maintaining a relatively strong and continuous BTC DCAing.. and sure entry level for that might be $25 to $100 per week, but even more aggressive strategies might increase the amounts and not necessarily put BIG dents on the personal budget (ongoing cashflow concerns).

I would rather borrow cash when btc is closer to a steady state level than paying almost half of the gains in taxes.

Good for Uie-poo-ie in your hypothetical contemplation of the matter.  I think that you get so focused on how to manage your supposed high level of wealth and seem to downplay the getting there part.  So surely getting there is almost all of the battle that a vast majority of normie folks face, and once the normie folks get to fuck you status or even multiples above fuck you status then they can do whatever the fuck they want to maintain such status.  Sure there are potential issues about prematurely pulling the fuck you lever and not having enough actual value to account for all the expenses, including potential taxes, and to the extent that you are focusing ur lil selfie on my problems in having to pay taxes, you seem to be continue to want to get caught up in some kind of concern that likely does not even seem to be a concern... haven't I mentioned a lot of times, that i have enough to live fairly well and in my current lifestyle without even cashing out any BTC, so part of my ongoing dilemma has been to figure out more ways to spend more money...so I really don't mind having that thing that you perceive as a problem that I do not perceive as a problem including concerns that I am going to run out of money or have to get booted out of fuck you status.. so that is not any kind of problem for this kitty cat...even if you may well be preoccupied by a selling on the way up strategy.

50% tax (in US) is coming, bros. They have no money and therefore have to apply the squeeze.

Sure... could be... right now federal tax rates are about 15% for long term capital gains in the US of A... and then depending on which state a person is in, there may well be additional capital gains taxes for the same transactions.
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