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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367319 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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August 21, 2021, 04:11:49 AM
Last edit: August 21, 2021, 03:43:19 PM by cAPSLOCK
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

It's Penny Stocks 2.0 all over again.

That's where the old wall street guard has been trying to take it for awhile now. Pump & dumps and the 'naked short' and 'stick it to the man' revolutionary narratives organized by fraudsters that ran rampant in penny stocks just repackaged for a new set of rubes that think they are geniuses when they are just in a bull market. All I can say is I'm glad I found this board awhile ago.

The thing that went down with GME is merely a foreshadowing of the hard destruction that awaits people who try to abuse a system that has no escape valve.

Care to elaborate? You mean over-shorting, hypothecation, etc?

That kind of thing, yes.  Most exploits in current markets are enabled by the tradeoffs with the asset at the center of the exploit.  I say "at the center" because it is also the instruments designed to take advantage of limitations in the asset, or even regulatory structures.

But Bitcoin does away with a lot of those sorts of handles.

For example... gold is extremely difficult to custody and transport.  It is heavy and there is a lot of value tied up in a physical thing the needs a tremendous amount of effort to be spent in protecting it. m And it is expensive to assay.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6qEee1_4fw

So it tends to be consolidated in well protected fortresses and vaults.  Then all the trade has to do with paper that represents the asset.  And because of that... an almost limitless amount of schemes can be designed to take advantage of the fact that you might own gold on paper, but demanding delivery is often not realistic, or feasible.  And sustaining the security even assuming control after the delivery is complete becomes quite difficult as well.  So people settle for gold on paper, and then abstracted contracts for delivery of paper that represents gold.  And options on those contracts.  And so on.

Bitcoin as the first trust minimized digital (instant, ephemeral) bearer asset.

If customers suspect that Coinbase is a fractional reserve it is extremely simple thing for them to demand delivery of the asset.  And in this case one of three things will happen.

Coinbase has the reserves, and delivers the bitcoin.
Coinbase does not have the bitcoin and goes broke as this happens. (my fav scenario... sorry people holding there!)
Coinbase defaults, and is somehow protected by a government.

Both of those last two ways expose a terminal flaw that will drive the worldwide flow of bitcoin away from institutions that custody and into trust reduced, or minimized setups.  Multi-sigs with third parties, large cryptographic Federations, or self custody.

Bitcoin will be harder to play these games with EXACTLY because trusted third parties are security holes. 

And we don't need them anymore.
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August 21, 2021, 04:21:27 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)

You are going to need more than 0.21BTC then.

Hi JJG: I see you repeatedly mention that figure and I wonder why. I remember years ago it was said to try to get your hands on at least 1 Bitcoin to secure your future . Perhaps 0.21BTC is the new 1BTC? I guess with the increase in demand, and price, with 7 billion people living in the world, having 0.21BTC can secure your future. Is that so? That's the explanation I give but I'm not sure if that's what you mean.
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August 21, 2021, 05:29:53 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1), Poker Player (1)

You are going to need more than 0.21BTC then.

Hi JJG: I see you repeatedly mention that figure and I wonder why. I remember years ago it was said to try to get your hands on at least 1 Bitcoin to secure your future . Perhaps 0.21BTC is the new 1BTC? I guess with the increase in demand, and price, with 7 billion people living in the world, having 0.21BTC can secure your future. Is that so? That's the explanation I give but I'm not sure if that's what you mean.

For sure, I am not suggesting that anyone should stop accumulating BTC way premature if they still have the ability to keep accumulating and they have not reached their goals, yet.  The punch line to the current target of 0.21BTC is a kind of realistic acknowledgement that accumulating 1 BTC is starting to become way out of the reach of a lot of people - so we should want to attempt to stay realistic for the vast majority of people in terms of helping them to set reasonable targets that they can reach and then perhaps keep on moving the targets upwardly (if feasible and reasonable) once the lower targets are reached.

Sure of course, there could be a bit of a problem if a guy were to actually reach fuck you status, and then he has no diversification at all or hardly any diversification (and I am not talking about getting into shitcoins), because then he would be in a vulnerable position in terms of having all of his wealth in BTC - especially when it is so volatile...and having all your eggs in one basket is not likely to be increasing either your comfort level or your options... and again fuck shitcoins, I am not referring to them.

It seems that when I was first getting into BTC in late 2013, the BTC price had gotten up to $1,163, and there were quite a few bitcoin regulars who were still gravitating on a kind of goal of accumulating 21BTC as their kind of starting out point (or maintenance point).. and sure there were some of the longer-term members who might not have been too wealthy or anything who would have been still focusing on getting their stash into three digits, such as 100+ BTC, but for sure, we could start to see that with the passage of time that 100 BTC would become more and more problematic as an entry point, and sure, I am pretty sure that 21BTC still did seem to be a decent and realistic accumulation goal through 2015 and perhaps even decently into 2016.. but even that 21 BTC became harder and harder to proclaim as an entry accumulation target for newbies... so yeah, it went down to 10 BTC. .. and then 1 or 2 BTC, and surely Poker Player you can likely appreciate why 1 or 2 BTC is not really very realistic currently as a BTC accumulation starting goal for a vast majority of normies, and so therefore, we seem to be gravitating down to something like .021 BTC as being something to start to aspire to as a starting BTC accumulation goal.

Don't get me wrong, because starting goals do not necessarily mean that is where anybody should be stopping, but surely it seems to be a good practice to attempt to establish realistic starting goals.. and it surely would likely become more complicated in terms of assessing any individual's particular financial and psychological circumstances, and so that will frequently lead us to other areas of discussion regarding various kinds of goal setting that might happen above and beyond some of those initial BTC accumulation strategies.

You may have noticed that I had been getting into it with Biodom quite a bit in recent times, and one of my recent criticisms was his assertion that it might be reasonable for someone to just lump sum a large amount of BTC.. and just sit on his investment for 10, 20 or 30 years.. he used 20 BTC bought in 2015 as an example... so yeah, a guy could have easily bought 20 BTC in 2015 for somewhere between $5,000 and $6,000 and just sat on that investment until now and even from his perspective sit on the investment while hoping that the BTC price goes up to $10 million or something like that...

And largely I responded to him.. fuck that nonsense.. and fuck the idea of just sitting around and not ongoingly investing into bitcoin, when you had already assessed BTC to be a good enough investment and to put $5k to $6k in 2015.  I was suggesting that such a lump sum strategy that does not have any follow up is a quite a bit underconvicted in terms of both recognizing the actual strengths of bitcoin and also taking reasonable and prudent strategies to attempt to help yourself to reach fuck you status faster and in a more actively managed way rather than just (whimpily) sitting on one lump sum purchase (or set of lump sum purchases) and praying that the BTC price goes up.

So, for sure when we talk about setting those initial BTC accumulation goals, they might seem a bit whimpy in the beginning, and sure there might be some people who are poor as fuck and they are not even reasonably able to invest $10 per week into bitcoin.. so sure we have to recognize those kinds of situation, and try to figure out if they could still continue to profit from ongoingly investing in BTC and not get tempted into cashing out too much of their BTC too soon merely because BTC prices appreciates.. so I suppose that I am not even suggesting that everyone is going to be able to reach fuck you status even when they might be attempting to be as aggressive as they can in terms of how much they are able to stack aside BTC, but these days it does seem that 0.21 BTC (it is about $10k as I type this post.. not pocket change for sure) is a kind of reachable first goal.. and people gotta start somewhere.. and even some people lose their whole BTC stashes in various accidents, and they may well have to get back on the BTC accumulation horse and set reasonable and reachable targets.. sucks for some of those people, but we all have to attempt to be realistic too in terms of assessing how much money 0.21BTC is to some people to be able to set aside - and even worse for some people who had already had a habit of living from pay check to pay check and they have to fix their habits including their thinking that everyone else is living pay check to pay check so why shouldn't I.. (some people have no choice, and maybe it is more difficult for BTC to help them.. even though 0.21 BTC may still be a reachable starting goal that may well have to be moved down further on down this particular BTC price cycle.. not sure yet.. time will tell.. no?)

Oh by the way... sometimes we might be talking about reaching fuck you status and then other times we might be talking about how close we might be to reaching fuck you status, and sometimes we might just want to suggest something about our own status that might be within the relatable parameters such as maybe already having had reached and surpassed the currently acceptable normie reachable goal of 0.21 BTC.. or we might disclose that we had reached one of the past goals, even in 2017 when the goal was something like 10BTC but then later on seemed to be in need of moving on.. even though there were some peeps who had stated that they had temporarily reached 10 BTC (i.e. mindrust for less than a day.. if we can believe him).. .. but yeah.. maybe even soon after mindrust had said that he had met the 10 BTC goal in March 2020 (and BTC prices went slightly below $4k during that time), it seemed to have been harder and harder to reach such a goal, because the BTC price only seemed to have had gone up from there.. and since March 2020 BTC prices went up in a kind of BIGGEDly way if we really look at the whole matter... and I suppose that is where we started having to go to 1 to 2 BTC as our starting goal.. and we even started to use $10k as our kind of starting out price point for this particular run.. even though $10k had even seemed to be a kind of relatively solid BTC price gravitation point even in September 2020..  but even our BTC price battle grounds in the area of more than 50% correction off of $65k causes a lot of us to tentatively consider that $10k to $20k BTC prices are fantasylandia.. which may have allowed for keeping 1-2 BTC as reasonable BTC accumulation entry points.. and surely, there seems to be sufficient and reasonable basis to also consider that it is no longer really realistic for normies entering into BTC to be having goals so damned high as 1 BTC..... so for now, the 0.21BTC is going to have to work.. and many of us are likely consideration that 0.21BTC is working for now.. but we are not really going to have a lot of confidence that we are going to stay here for very long, even though we did seem to spend much of 2021 in such a place that 0.21BTC has been somewhat within reach of the normies as their BTC accumulation starting point.. .. reassessments are likely going to be made in the coming couple of years in terms of actually seeing where the top of this cycle might end up and then how far the correction might come down.. and so we can suspect that we might be downgrading from 0.21BTC.. but it is not a given.. that's for sure... even though 0.21BTC does still seem to be reasonably prudent and valid... for now.

Another by the way... I have come across a whole hell of a lot of BTC newbies over the years who seemed to have a lot of screwed up thoughts in the beginning, including the lame ass presumptions that many of us have about being way too fucking late to bitcoin.. and surely, I am not excluding myself from being a similar kind of dumbass and that I stayed relatively insecure for a few years in terms of wondering if I had accumulated enough BTC.. so BTC price volatility can really do that to a lot of us normies, including a decent amount of confidence that we lose during periods of seemingly extended BTC price dippenings.. .. but if these guys stick to their guns (and even if they have a kind of fucked up low level of cashflow that they can spare) I have seen so many of them proclaim that they ended up acquiring way more BTC than they thought that they would be able to acquire.. so for example someone with a 0.21 BTC initial goal might end up reaching way more BTC than that.. and just say to themselves.. "holy fuck, I did not think that I would be able to do it."  but it happens quite a bit and even sometimes it does take a few years too..  and sometimes tragedies too.. so there is all of that going on when setting goals, trying to stick with the goals and setting new goals that only become practical and meaningful after the lower-level goals have already been met (or exceeded).
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August 21, 2021, 06:01:33 AM


Explanation
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August 21, 2021, 06:42:31 AM



What does he mean by here we are?
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August 21, 2021, 07:01:24 AM


Explanation
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August 21, 2021, 07:14:36 AM
Last edit: August 21, 2021, 07:48:31 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by JimboToronto (1)



What does he mean by here we are?

Who cares?

Since he starts out by misdescribing history by failing/refusing to recognize how the 2017 block wars and forkenings were resolved, including how the market also spoke in terms of the winner (BTC if you do not recall?), then why would we give any shits about how he assesses where BTC might happen to be at this particular moment..?  

Seems to me that BTC happens to be in a kind of pumpening stage of a cycle and it started around April 2019.. but taking a while to get to where we are at and around 5x higher prices from a year ago and also likely within the midst of more UPpity of this portion of the cycle - with a recent dip that challenged the concept of whether we are in a bull market or not and such recent price rebound of the past month seems to be resolving in the direction that we are continuing in a bull market (and we never left, in spite of desperate attempts to scare folks out oftheir coins.. and sure it worked for some).  

Of course currently, there may well be some uncertainties regarding how long this bull run will last, how high it will go, which shitcoins might get pumped along the way (if any), and likely the quoted twat is pumping some shitcoin talking point to naysay bitcoin while pumping some supposed benefits of various shitcoins that supposedly do things better than BTC..  So are we interested in exploring the depths of shitcoin talking points when they cannot even fairly describe how we got to this here place, except that we know that bitcoin naysaying tends to happen more extensively during BTC bullruns and some (more naive) bitcoin HODLers get tricked out of their bitcoin because they want to explore the nonsense of some shitcoin that might even pump better in the short term than our beloved grandpa bitcoin?  You going to get rid of your grandpa and go with some gimmick filled house of cards?
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August 21, 2021, 08:01:24 AM


Explanation
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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k


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August 21, 2021, 08:02:22 AM

Yea, I will add lasers in my eyes and now I'm a Crypto Analyst.
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August 21, 2021, 08:14:28 AM
Merited by LoyceV (4)

This is only year inflation comparison and you can see how the much wood logs have been taken off the pile within one year.The trees have not increased this cost but government policies and extra taxation have done the same like increase in transportation cost and some other taxes.



The banks, government and inflation are robbing up you silently and your dollar bills are not gonna protect you even if you have them in bulk because it will also reduce in value.The smart and best choice is BTC so understand it's importance.

So holders are going to have $50k party at El duderino 's backyards which is quite impressive place Grin so be part of it.
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August 21, 2021, 08:44:15 AM

Quote from: aysg76


The smart and best choice is BTC so understand it's importance.



Or Just Buy Rare, And I mean Rare Gold Coins which in many cases are worth 3x as Bitcoins. And guess what, you can hold it and admire it 😁 and its not dependant on Electricity 😏 which all Scientists know.. Is a gift that we still have it 😁

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August 21, 2021, 09:01:33 AM


Explanation
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August 21, 2021, 09:22:27 AM
Merited by ImThour (1)

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August 21, 2021, 09:25:39 AM


What a jack ass
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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k


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August 21, 2021, 09:43:10 AM


Alright, let's not judge someone from the past. I am sure 80% of the people here wouldn't know the potential growth of BTC.
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August 21, 2021, 10:01:25 AM


Explanation
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August 21, 2021, 10:11:37 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

https://medium.com/blockstream-markets-weekly/blockstream-markets-weekly-aug-20-2021-b308239c21b2

- Blackrock reveals $400M mining position
- Fidelity looks to build on Bitcoin
- JPM and Wells Fargo prepare tracker funds
- Robinhood revenues double on crapto trading
- and Blockstream readies Modular Mining Units to flatten lumpy energy demand


I am sure 80% of the people here wouldn't know the potential growth of BTC.

Lol.
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August 21, 2021, 10:20:04 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

What does he mean by here we are?
He means that the block size remained the same. It is wrong to state that everyone was in favour of increasing the block size except some developers, because not all were agreeing upon this. If they were, the developers couldn't stop them... It's a matter of consensus. From what I've heard, only the majority of the miners wanted it, obviously. Most of the users disagreed it and that's why it didn't happen; simple as that.

It is also wrong to state that the developers decided to earn from their own solutions (mostly for LN). We would sooner or later need an LN solution and they don't earn anything, I mean c'mon don't spit bullshit man.

What does that Nikita support anyway? Some sort of BSV?
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August 21, 2021, 10:52:22 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Please, no BSV (a.k.a. Craig Wright's coin) talk here. And no big-blocktardedness either. Thanks.



Ant pumpening in progress. Sweet!
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