DCA is probably better than buy the dip because DCA is more basic in terms of NOT having to attempt to figure out if there is a dip or not.
Sure buy the dip can supplement DCA, but I don't like it as much as a primary BTC accumulating strategy, and sure the more aggressive that a person is with the DCA, then maybe the less funds that would be available for buying the dip, but there should be practical ways to attempt to accomplish both.
Overall, I agree. If you factor the current point in the apparent cycle, however, I think putting stronger emphasis on buying the dip (definitely for the last few months, probably continuing for the next few months?) in addition to your methodical DCA schedule will be more rewarding. If I was accumulating now, I think I'd keep the pressure on BTFD under 100k.
Well you might know there is some variation of a hypothetical that I like to give, which is that a bitcoiner newbie who might have $6k that s/he can use to buy BTC right now, and s/he has $6k as cashflow that is coming in the next 6 months and s/he knows can be made available for bitcoin (without failing/refusing to account for his/her expenses or potential emergency preparations) (that's a total of $12k).
If the guy/gal does not have any bitcoin, s/he probably should buy with 1/3 right away (somewhere between $2k and $4k based on having $6k available now and projection of another $6k coming available), s/he sets the 2nd 1/3 up $2k to $4k to DCA over the next 6 months, and finally s/he set's another 1/3 $2k to $4k aside for buying on dips. That is the total of $12k to account for, which is 6k currently available and $6k coming available in the next 6 months.
Yes, using a $2k to $4k range may well makes matters seem a bit confusing, even though having good ways to think through your own finances and managing of cashflows can be confusing, too.. until you put your own personal preferences into a system that is comfortable for you.
The fact that the hypothetical guy/gal has no bitcoin means that s/he needs to get the fuck started with buying some bitcoin, getting a stake and don't be diddle daddlying around, and these are the three BTC accumulation options to plug into in which s/he will be able to exercise discretion, even though I suggested some guidelines for framing the way to go forward which accounts for that s/he is starting with no bitcoin, and accounts for how much cashflow that s/he has in his/her budget in the coming six months - which is $6k at this time and another $6k over the next 6 months.
The total factors that s/he should be accounting for is not only cashflow, but also his/her other investments (if any), view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and skills, time and abilities to learn, plan and tweak along the way.. and hopefully s/he has a minimum of a 4-year investment timeline to accumulate bitcoin but a longer time-frame would surely be better.
In other words, I doubt that we can resolve what the specific investment numbers into BTC should be in each category for that hypothetical guy/gal, even though we kind of presumed some of the parameters of his/her having $6k in hand and $6k coming into his/her cashflow in the coming 6 months.
Let's say for example, the 6 month dollar cost averaging and buying on dips plan is in practice, and 3 months into his/her carrying out this BTC accumulation plan, s/he comes across another $3k of extra cashflow unexpectedly that comes in that is available for BTC investing (maybe $6k additional cash came in, but s/he authorized him(her)self to allocate $3k for bitcoin), then I am of the view that presumptively s/he would divide that $3k into three parts - just like was done with the initial $12k of authorized cash.. and accordingly, s/he would consider investing 1/3 right away, plug 1/3 into his/her DCA and plug 1/3 into his/her buying on dips.
There can be a lot of these kinds of presumptions that are created in regards to what to do in order to attempt to create a framework, but in the end, the newbie bitcoin investor has to make various assessments for him(her)self both in terms of how much of the free cash that s/he authorizes for bitcoin and how much that s/he specifically wants to allocate to each of the three manners of BTC accumulation:
1) buy right away,
2) DCA and
3) buy on dips.
If anyone making any investment into bitcoin over-invests by not having value in other assets/currency or an emergency fund, then that would be a pretty damned irresponsible/risky investing style in terms of potentially creating a system in which s/he is not sufficiently/adequately prepared for an emergency and then s/he is forced to cash out some or all of his/her BTC at a time that is not of his/her own choosing, merely because s/he over-invested, overly took risks and failed/refused to adequately prepare his/her finances and failed/refused to consider adequate/reasonable emergency funds that are likely more likely to be needed if they are not prepared for.
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