Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart ActionBullish in the Long run.
Whoaza!!!!!! That appears to be a pretty BIG drop to around $36k-ish by the end of the year ImThour, and I suppose such a scenario is not completely unreasonable - even though it does have elements that are seeming to fail/refuse to account for what bitcoin actually is, so in that regard questionableness in the arena of supposed unbiasedness.
I would consider that part of its possible biasness comes from its showing BTC price performances that only go back to about April 2021.. and thus measuring from right around the $64,895 top in April 2021.. That is a similar kind of mistake that a lot of historical Bitcoin bearish dweebs have made in the past, even though you have couched your prediction in terms of your supposedly being "long-term bullish"
(so I am not going to automatically characterize you as a dweeb.. but still starting from the top to make your BTC price prediction remains a wee bit problematic).
Lack of context could cause some biasness, no? failing/refusing to account for currently valid BTC price prediction models could also create some biasness too no?. Some of my recent assessments have been that peeps who fail refuse to account for seemingly currently valid BTC price prediction models are failing/refusing to adequately understand bitcoin so we must take these kinds of people with a pretty BIG ASS grain of salt. Surely, you do not have to believe in such models, but if you are proclaiming to know much of anything about bitcoin you better be accounting for them, including in any assertedly "unbiased" price predictions that you are making.
Upon my first glance of your squiggly lines, I did not immediately appreciate the significance of it's starting point.. and I was tentatively concluding that your supposed "unbiased projection" does not negate that we quite likely remain in a bull market nor does it negate the thesis of the $28,600 bottom being in... .. but holy shit.. ImThour, your suggesting $64,895 top for this calendar year does seem that it could very well be negating our current bull market.. and surely seems to be attempting to fail refuse to account for seemingly current BTC price prediction models.. so surely questionable in terms of its supposed unbiasness.
what kinds of odds would you be putting on such a squiggly lines scenario that ONLY starts from looking at BTC's price since April 2021? greater than 50/50?
I have been kind of sitting here pondering my own layman's thinking of the topic of BTC's price future and the unknowable nature of it, and I recall that when we went above $46k (about 3-4 weeks ago depending on how such going above $46k was measured), I had considered that the $28,600 bottom being in had gone into the lower 60% and as the BTC price went higher and higher I suppose that I was starting to believe that the $28,600 bottom being in would be more than 65%.. and so you may well be agreeing with me because you are also considering more UPpity from here in the short term until the end of the calendar year but you are also concluding that BTC is going to have an inability to break above $64,895 before the end of the calendar year, even though it looks like your squiggly lines show $64,895 being tested (unsuccessfully this calendar year).
Also, your squiggly lines are negating my earlier description of a deadman's zone once we get above $55k, which is to suggest that we are NOT likely going to reach unbearable resistance once we get above $55k and not only is the $64,895 ATH going to be breached, but we are quite likely to make it to $80k with out much if any effort (sure perhaps some stalling could happen within that currently theorized deadman's zone.. but likely nothing too substantial nor lasting (at least in my current thinkenings on the matter)..
In any event, your squiggly lines deny the presence of that kind of BTC price dynamics involving a $55k to $80k deadman's zone.. even into the coming 3-4 months when you believe this challenge to a new ATH is going to fail.
Do you have a number of likelihood or just a squiggly lines?
Are you placing any money on such price prediction? You must be no? Perhaps you are planning to sell some BTC on the rise towards $65k that you believe will fail, shorting or putting off some otherwise BTC buys that you would have made in order to prepare for such levels of down (or at least a short term lack of UPpity, no?)? So preparing for down or a lack of UP should not just be words, right? There's gotta be some action there in some regards, no?
Otherwise, why waste your time making such BTC price predictions, no?
Of course, you have also asserted that you are bullish in the long run, yet wouldn't even that kind of assertion be a bit out of touch with how BTC price dynamics have historically worked? You expect bitcoin to bounce out of cycles and just go into mild and slow UPpity over a longer period? How would that look?
Do you really believe that bitcoin (in the long run) is really going to be going up in some kind of slow and gradual manner, as if it were some kind of a mature stock? I am getting the sense that you may well not understand bitcoin very well if you are analyzing bitcoin's possible future UPpity like that.. and really do you give any weight to the currently valid BTC price prediction models?** Do you know what they are? Do you understand them?
**In case you don't know I am referring to: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.
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