Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ImThour]

I mean, still 350% up from last year, same day. 

[1713293382]

1713293382

[1713293382]

1713293382

[gembitz]

Bitcoin Crash to $5,402 in Error on Network Backed by Quants  #FUD YAHOOOO REEEEEE
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-crashed-5-402-error-200732717.html

[OutOfMemory]

Bitcoin Crash to $5,402 in Error on Network Backed by Quants  #FUD YAHOOOO REEEEEE
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-crashed-5-402-error-200732717.html

If thas was the first and only post from you i merited so far, i wouldn't be surprised.
But the story is worth it.

[JayJuanGee]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Same here. But rather than not feeling bullish, I am feeling the point to buy the dips is coming soon.

Buying the dip soon^tm..

but what does that mean? 

When?

How much to buy?

Is that the bottom or no?

We will know it when "we" see it, right?  (P.S.,.  we may have just seen it, with our spikening down to $39,573 within the past 30 minutes - coupled with our recovery.. back up to $42k.. perhaps? perhaps)

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I surely have my doubts in regards to this exponential period playing out so similar to the 2013 fractal that you suggest to be relevant here.

Sure, anything can happen, but I am expecting that even though we may well be able to make it through $55k to $80k without much if any resistance (once we get into that price zone), at the same time, I would expect that we will see some resistance before 6 digits.. and yeah, your peak of $200k to $400k does come off as a fairly reasonable price range for a peak.. even though there would not be any kinds of assurances that this peak would necessarily end within such range or even play out in the next 2-3 months, as you also seem to be suggesting as a kind of "given."  In other words, we could have a price peak for this particular cycle that takes many more months to play out, even going as late as the third quarter of 2022.. even though I would expect that the odds for the peak happening sooner rather than later in 2022 (if it were to drag out into 2022)- second quarter more likely than 3rd quarter and 1st quarter more likely than 2nd quarter.

Overall agree. The top of the cycle can be postponed Q1 2022 even I don't really see a top very late in 2022. Except if we don't go so high as expected (I mean like the usual parabolic end of the cycle) and we just go up step by step, slowly. If happened, the down would be probably on the same way, without seing -85%+ (top to bottom, as we saw till now).
BUT i still believe in Halving timing, so anyway the top (fast or not) cannot take so much more times..

PS : Not agree on the 55-80K. If we crush 55K (or  from previous ATH 64K), I don't see much reason to stop at 80K instead of 95-98K for example (just below 100K). Would be "only" a 50% up from previous top. Nothing crazy.

Those are all fair points, even though I have some quibbles with you in regards to downplaying the strength of likelihood that we have future 85%-ish price corrections, and I also will quibble with any kind of implication that you might be making in terms of a vision of possible future BTC price stability, at least in the short term of this cycle or the coming one to two more cycles. 

In other words, even though bitcoin markets have been picking up a lot of financialization products and also a lot of BIGGER investors into bitcoin who are not too likely to be selling their BTC and also providing BTC price support, I doubt that we are going to be able to remove our lil selfies (referring to the bitcoin market) from high levels of ongoing volatility - that still seems somewhat inevitable when in the midst of war.  In other words, do you (or any other regular member here for that matter) really believe that the greatest wealth transfer in history is going to play out without some extreme battles both in the physical space and in the informational space - that ends up reflecting upon BTC price movements (likely extreme, if you had not absorbed the implications that I was attempting)?

[cAPSLOCK]

Bitcoin Crash to $5,402 in Error on Network Backed by Quants  #FUD YAHOOOO REEEEEE
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-crashed-5-402-error-200732717.html

Um Wow.  Gemblips actually posted something of substance.

And if this is true... umm...  the way things are going in the world right now?  Such a good chance it was not an accident either.

By the way...  Satoshi may have successfully decentralized MONEY.  But the exchange of it?

That is an attack vector for the powers that be.

I expect to see more of this.

[UnDerDoG81]

Were they able to buy at 5k?

[OutOfMemory]

Seems that there are less sellwalls now.
Too many s/l orders triggered?
Would be healthy for a rising bull, i guess.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

^ In Sept. 2017 BTC also dipped quite a bit, but it was mostly going up (daily) from that point onward.
I remember buying in the first time a few weeks earlier and Bitcoin dropped down a little bit above the price it was when i bought.
I also panic sold a few days after i bought, just to buy in again one or two days later, when it was going up again. I'm glad i didn't make this mistakes later in Sept 2017.
#hodl

Just looking at past bitcoin prices & September 2013 caught my attention.

29 September 2013 - Price was $137
The top for that cycle, a few months later in 2013 was over $1,100.

Now, if we can even do 3 or 4 x the current price I will be the happiest man alive.

So?  You are talking about shaving at various BTC price points along the way up?  Presumably starting at some point above our current ATH since you had already taken some profits between our current price and the current ATH, right?

Of course, you know that I have sell orders set all the way up to mid-$100k and beyond, but mine are not even a very large percentage of my overall BTC portfolio, so I am not even concerned that I would have any cashflow shortages anywhere in those areas, even if we might consider that BTC price go into the mid-$100k and then correct back down to the $60k territory.. if that were to be something like our bearish bull-case for this particular cycle?    

By the way, I am largely asking this question based on concerns that anyone might be considering figuring out what a top might be or engaging in a sell all of their BTC strategy (and I already believe that you are not going to be selling all of your BTC even if you might be selling decently sized chunks that might even add up to 20% to 30% or perhaps even a wee bit more of your stash into those kinds of mid-$100k BTC price scenarios.. and I would not even say that would be unreasonable, even though I when I do a quickie look at my own BTC projections, my portfolio seems to be selling way less than 10% (and even in the 5% arena) which comes off as if I might not even be selling enough.. just to be somewhat reasonable in terms of expecting that a top might come somewhere between $150k and $400k rather than at some higher price point.. not that I would be shaving off larger amounts of BTC merely if BTC prices were to top above $400k - even while maybe experiencing some regrets after the fact in the event that BTC prices crash in the 85% price arena after topping off at a point that is lower than my thoughts of a clear blow-off top (not that I would even know one when I were to see it).

Very few people see it yet, but we are gearing up for the big one in my humble opinion.  France pulled their ambassadors from the US as we sent nuke subs to Australia?  Lines being drawn between the sides.  And the regular people like us will pay the price.

Do you even know how to be a wee bit less cryptic for us normies who are trying to figure out what is going to be "the big one?"

What are the sides going to be?

Do you want to say in advance or just putting out vagueness and then saying that you "knew it"  blah blah blah?.. hahahahaha

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  

Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Frankly, I don't believe my eyes - battle (and dip) hardened LFC is posting this bearish/chicken talk? Don't you remember the good old days of 2013 and 2017? I fear you're about to get batman slapped by Mr JJG!  

Like this?

[marcus_of_augustus]

^ In Sept. 2017 BTC also dipped quite a bit, but it was mostly going up (daily) from that point onward.
I remember buying in the first time a few weeks earlier and Bitcoin dropped down a little bit above the price it was when i bought.
I also panic sold a few days after i bought, just to buy in again one or two days later, when it was going up again. I'm glad i didn't make this mistakes later in Sept 2017.
#hodl

Just looking at past bitcoin prices & September 2013 caught my attention.

29 September 2013 - Price was $137
The top for that cycle, a few months later in 2013 was over $1,100.

Now, if we can even do 3 or 4 x the current price I will be the happiest man alive.

... check your premises, hoping for material wealth targets to achieve 'happiness' is a known losing strategy

... wealth can provide economic security, perhaps sometimes freedoms or access to resources, not happiness

[Mugtaiya]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1439675314217517057

Yall using your BIP39 passphrase, right?  RIGHT?



(also I suggest backing up your keys with PGP (GPG) encryption and a strong password somewhere else as well.  USB drive... archival CDR... *cough* cloud *cough*)

Damn F.B.I

Concerning the price...

Down, down, down the rabbit hole we go.

[OutOfMemory]

OK, brothers, time for bed.
Don't mindrust it.

[philipma1957]

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I love believers !

[eddie13]

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I love believers !

I believe!!


It is the only avenue for me to escape the rat race..
The greatest lottery tickets I will ever get the chance to own..


It’s either going to zero, and I can say “at least I had the balls to try”..
Or I can say “Fuck you” to the system forever..
Eventually..
One way or the other..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

Maybe i am just looking too much into it, but the previous dump coincided with a rapid increase in the mempool. By rapid i mean over 20x-25x.... Granted it is still very low (~10mb) compared to what we seen during the mempool spam attacks (100mb+)

Stabilization seems to occur when the mempool went back down to nothing... Coins still being confirmed as they are moved to exchanges perhaps?... ie still more price volatility ahead...

[goldkingcoiner]

The next full moon will occur on Monday, Sept. 20 at 7:55 p.m. EDT (23:55 UTC), but the moon will appear full the night before and after its peak to the casual stargazer. September's full moon will be the Harvest Moon of 2021, though it is sometimes known as the Corn Moon and has many other nicknames by different cultures.

Is full moon the reason we got a dip? Do we get a pump at the next full moon?

There is a correlation between full moons around short-term reversals in price, due to emotional sentiment I imagine, so is possible that was the final dip. Will have a look and see if there's been a correlation in recent months and post some TA on it if it appears relevant...

Until I see some empirical proof, this whole full moon correlation will seem like untrustworthy, unscientific bs to me. why does it matter how much of the moon is darker in some parts and not others? Its just the reflection of light from the moon as seen from different perspectives.

[gallianooo]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Same here. But rather than not feeling bullish, I am feeling the point to buy the dips is coming soon.

Buying the dip soon^tm..

but what does that mean? 

When?

How much to buy?

Is that the bottom or no?

We will know it when "we" see it, right?  (P.S.,.  we may have just seen it, with our spikening down to $39,573 within the past 30 minutes - coupled with our recovery.. back up to $42k.. perhaps? perhaps)

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I surely have my doubts in regards to this exponential period playing out so similar to the 2013 fractal that you suggest to be relevant here.

Sure, anything can happen, but I am expecting that even though we may well be able to make it through $55k to $80k without much if any resistance (once we get into that price zone), at the same time, I would expect that we will see some resistance before 6 digits.. and yeah, your peak of $200k to $400k does come off as a fairly reasonable price range for a peak.. even though there would not be any kinds of assurances that this peak would necessarily end within such range or even play out in the next 2-3 months, as you also seem to be suggesting as a kind of "given."  In other words, we could have a price peak for this particular cycle that takes many more months to play out, even going as late as the third quarter of 2022.. even though I would expect that the odds for the peak happening sooner rather than later in 2022 (if it were to drag out into 2022)- second quarter more likely than 3rd quarter and 1st quarter more likely than 2nd quarter.

Overall agree. The top of the cycle can be postponed Q1 2022 even I don't really see a top very late in 2022. Except if we don't go so high as expected (I mean like the usual parabolic end of the cycle) and we just go up step by step, slowly. If happened, the down would be probably on the same way, without seing -85%+ (top to bottom, as we saw till now).
BUT i still believe in Halving timing, so anyway the top (fast or not) cannot take so much more times..

PS : Not agree on the 55-80K. If we crush 55K (or  from previous ATH 64K), I don't see much reason to stop at 80K instead of 95-98K for example (just below 100K). Would be "only" a 50% up from previous top. Nothing crazy.

Those are all fair points, even though I have some quibbles with you in regards to downplaying the strength of likelihood that we have future 85%-ish price corrections, and I also will quibble with any kind of implication that you might be making in terms of a vision of possible future BTC price stability, at least in the short term of this cycle or the coming one to two more cycles. 

In other words, even though bitcoin markets have been picking up a lot of financialization products and also a lot of BIGGER investors into bitcoin who are not too likely to be selling their BTC and also providing BTC price support, I doubt that we are going to be able to remove our lil selfies (referring to the bitcoin market) from high levels of ongoing volatility - that still seems somewhat inevitable when in the midst of war.  In other words, do you (or any other regular member here for that matter) really believe that the greatest wealth transfer in history is going to play out without some extreme battles both in the physical space and in the informational space - that ends up reflecting upon BTC price movements (likely extreme, if you had not absorbed the implications that I was attempting)?

I meant that I don't believe to a 85% drop on BTC (from ath) if we already top or if we top at 80 or 100K.. Otherwise meaning we would dip below the 2017 ATH ?! I don't think there is lot of probably of that way. Then if we top at 200K+, why not, we can maybe bottom on the 30-42K+

BTW, we will see in a bit more of 1 week if the worse scenario of PLAN B will hold. When i see the chart.. lol. But we never know with BTC...

[jojo69]

 A handsome, tall black fellow, wearing fashionable yet comfortable clothing approaches you from out of nowhere. A well worn tan cowboy hat adorns his head, suggesting an untold history of experiences and legends yet to be revealed.

 You notice the man is carrying two dull circular metal plates, pocked with spherical indentations and scrapes - Clearly having been punished to their material limits.

 The man holds out the two plates, with his left arm - somehow defying the laws of gravity.

 With his right arm, he tips his hat, and mutters "You are going to need these more than I do right now".

 The dark man turns, and walks off into the western sunset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYtJum5k9V8

[goldkingcoiner]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Same here. But rather than not feeling bullish, I am feeling the point to buy the dips is coming soon.

Buying the dip soon^tm..

but what does that mean?  

When?

How much to buy?

Is that the bottom or no?

We will know it when "we" see it, right?  (P.S.,.  we may have just seen it, with our spikening down to $39,573 within the past 30 minutes - coupled with our recovery.. back up to $42k.. perhaps? perhaps)

Well I am hoping to see a drop to 38k (the golden ratio in the daily fibonacci support levels)  but I would think nowish is the time to buy the dip. 40k is fine too.