Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Did you have any specific questions in regards to my approach to BTC?

Nope, no further questions. I rest my case. BTW, I like your detailed analysis dovetailing into history.

Peace...

Aren't you quite the cooperative one.

Should I presume that your secretive BTC portfolio building/management strategies are beating a pure DCA strategy of around 8.5x in nearly 5 years (since January 2017), then?  If you have been in BTC for longer than that, then your overall performance and profits should be even better, given a DCA strategy tends to show better performance for the longer the time that a guy is in BTC.  

Alternatively, should I presume that you have already overallocated and you have a trading stash and a HODL stash?  which would largely mean that you are not playing around with too large of percentages of your overall BTC stash.

A vast majority of guys are likely quite a bit better off following some kind of DCA strategy or some variation of buying on dips and lump sum investing rather than more complicated trading methodologies that you are continuing to pompously (and perhaps pretentiously) failing/refusing to explain and might not even play out better than something like a DCA strategy, given the risks of having the market move against you and other complicated aspects of betting wrong.

My cousin has been into cryptocurrencies (not Bitcoin) since 2017, when I introduced him to Bitcoin (but he never bought). His 30-day Kraken trading volume once exceeded $10M. Up until now, he has achieved an overall 3x profit, with countless stressful and sleepless nights, trying to catch the waves and endlessly moving funds from shitcoin to shitcoin.

Had he invested in Bitcoin in 2017 and HeDL until now, he would be so much better off. I estimated his profit now would be about 30x -- and all of that while sleeping like a baby (insert Buffett quote here). He has now spent 2/3 of his stash on some land and a large-screen TV. I suggested to him to Bitcoin-DCA from now on, but I don't think he paid much attention. He just said that he will use the remaining 1/3 in BCH (the next Bitcoin, according to him) to become rich in 2 years.

Go figure...  

So yes, if the 2017 date for your cousin shitcoinHoDL is early 2017 (which I would presume based on your 30x projection, which would be $42k/30 = $1,400 - and BTC prices would have been around $1,400 in early 2017), then 8.5x for DCA investing would be better than 3x for trading whether shitcoins or otherwise trading does not tend to be able to overall beat DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips.  One aspect of presuming an ability to lump sum invest is to have the money available at the time that you first get in, but still many of us, remain concern about the reality that many normies do not necessarily have lump sums available at any given time and  also they can bolster their BTC allocation by using their future cashflows (while not necessarily wanting to take the risk of leveraging future cashflows in advance to lumpsum based on credit or something like that).  

For sure, many of us can also make mistakes along the way, so even if we do comparatively measure our actual returns with what would have been DCA returns, we might not want to kick ourselves too much if we underperform those returns or even to give our lil selfies too much credit merely because we may have been able to outperform the DCA returns.

One irony of my own particular situation is that I have happened to track the DCA returns pretty damned well (which would currently be within a ballpark of 52x profits), even though I had several pretty BIG losses due to dealing with exchanges, some transactions that I made with dishonest people who reneged on their end, a sim port attack and perhaps some other mistakes that I made.  I do consider that the averaging out of my various "mistakes" along the way happen to be less bad based on the decent amount of front-loading that I had done (which suggests some emphasis on lump sum rather than pure DCA) and also some of the buying on dips that I have done, which was largely related to my attempts at portfolio and risk management rather than striving to stack more sats, even though side benefits of stacking more sats did come through my employment of those kinds of risk management techniques - even if they might have some of their own structural flaws.  I consider whatever experimenting that I did with shitcoins and also some of my attempts at spontaneous trading of BTC that resulted in emotion-based mistakes to have had pretty damned minimal effects on lessening the value of my BTC holdings in the whole scheme of things.

I guess part of my point remains that if a guy figures out his own cashflow and various other personal financial and psychological circumstances, then he should be able to come pretty damned close to at least mirroring the performance of a DCA strategy - even if he might have been able to beat such strategy by investing early and just sitting on it, but I personally advocate a more active and ongoing strategy of continuing to buy BTC along the way rather than just lump sum investing which would also potentially include buying on dips (besides the core ongoing DCA strategy) and to stay involved to the extent that your time, skills and abilities permit.  And, sure of course, if you have either overallocated or reached fuck you status or something close to fuck you status, then there might not be as much of a need to continue with DCA, so at that point the strategy might just end up involving buying on dips and even eliminate the lump sum investing too.. except to the extent that some funds might merely be in reserve to buy on dips.

Regarding your cousin shitcoinHoDL's consideration that any of the bcash's are still a thing (whether talking about BCH or the quasi-more-delusional BSV) are any kind of meaningful thing shows that he may well be way too delusional to deal with, and maybe even to some extent, I don't even believe what I am saying here because I have several delusional twat relatives who hang onto the idea of Dogecoin going to either $.70 or even to $1 or more.. and some other dumb shit like Cardano, and I am not really going to completely give up on them, even if I might get annoyed as fuck when I am talking with them and I just need to take a break sometimes and just let matters play out for a couple more years or however long it might take to possibly revisit the matter - except to the extent that sometimes you may intend to NOT talk with these seemingly delusional twats (happen to be relatives) for a couple of years, but you know that you have pretty decent chances of running into them at various family gatherings.. and surely they might bring up the topic, even if you believe that it might be better to NOT talk about such topic.. but sometimes the topic might just end up coming up in spite your wishes, and you might not even be averse to discussing some of the matters again, even if you believe the relative is pretty far gone in their various presumptions and their analysis of factors that you conclude to be ONLY betting on upside without adequately accounting for downside - which yeah is a whole hell of a lot of gambling that some people seem unable to NOT do, even if they seem to know better, their actions kind of speak for themselves.

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[serveria.com]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1439675314217517057

Yall using your BIP39 passphrase, right?  RIGHT?



(also I suggest backing up your keys with PGP (GPG) encryption and a strong password somewhere else as well.  USB drive... archival CDR... *cough* cloud *cough*)

I would never put cash in a safe deposit box or bank. Unless this Joseph Ruiz guy has no other place to store it safely (like, at home? there should always be some place at home, somewhere, maybe.)

I may rent a cheap box in the future, but it would seem unlikely.

Don't do that. And read the fine print before you sign any agreement/contract. I was shocked to find out they in fact can't be held liable for any losses. So if the bank is robbed or in case of some inside job (keys stolen/copied by an employee) you're getting 0 (well possibly some fraction of your possessions if they're insured and you keep the receipts or some other proof of ownership. Otherwise you're screwed.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

The next full moon will occur on Monday, Sept. 20 at 7:55 p.m. EDT (23:55 UTC), but the moon will appear full the night before and after its peak to the casual stargazer. September's full moon will be the Harvest Moon of 2021, though it is sometimes known as the Corn Moon and has many other nicknames by different cultures.

Is full moon the reason we got a dip? Do we get a pump at the next full moon?

There is a correlation between full moons around short-term reversals in price, due to emotional sentiment I imagine, so is possible that was the final dip. Will have a look and see if there's been a correlation in recent months and post some TA on it if it appears relevant...

Until I see some empirical proof, this whole full moon correlation will seem like untrustworthy, unscientific bs to me. why does it matter how much of the moon is darker in some parts and not others? Its just the reflection of light from the moon as seen from different perspectives.

... there's tons of empirical evidence out there if you would bother to go look.

... trying to rationalise in terms of the language of physics, e.g. gravitational pulls and reflections of light, is missing the obvious human factors that make up market pricing behaviours

... many sociological behaviours are heavily influenced by the lunar cycle, ~90% of menstruating woman ovulate on the full moon, ~5% on the new moon, heart attacks, strokes, domestic violence, social unrest all have correlations with the lunar cycle

... the other cycle effect I alluded to, the solar-seasonal cycle, was the Northern Hemisphere autumnal equinox which has been long correlated with market crashes ... basically because humans are anxious about their preparedness for the upcoming winter, squirrels run around crazy burying nuts in fall, humans are little different

... many human decisions, relationships, housing, jobs, especially financial decisions, that have been put off all summer (or years) will be taken near the full moon closest to the autumnal equinox ... you can bank on it, it's not physics but the forces are quite undeniable and powerful

... tl;dr markets are human inventions heavily influenced by human sentiment, women ovulate, men go nutz, shit happens, repeat

Perhaps some people buy Bitcoin because their star signs say they would be making money and some cultures might have superstitions like lucky investing times....The moon may have an effect on human psychology, which manifests itself physically. I see your point. But it's still not going to have a physical effect on small masses like humans the same way it does with huge body masses such as the ocean....

[Dabs]

Don't do that. And read the fine print before you sign any agreement/contract. I was shocked to find out they in fact can't be held liable for any losses. So if the bank is robbed or in case of some inside job (keys stolen/copied by an employee) you're getting 0 (well possibly some fraction of your possessions if they're insured and you keep the receipts or some other proof of ownership. Otherwise you're screwed.  

Yeah, they kind of feel that way. The only reason to rent one of those is to keep other stuff you couldn't keep at home, like back up copies of other important documents. Photocopies of stuff like passports, agreements, stuff like that, where the reason you have those backup copies is in case your own house goes down in flames. Some people resort to fireproof home safes for that purpose.

Storage units also, but those cost more even for the smallest one.

Bank boxes typically are less than $100 per year, depending on size. Jewelry you don't use ... but again, maybe better at home. I can find Sentry branded fire-safe waterproof chests with lifetime warranty on amazon.

[Elwar]

"cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance may be evolving into threats to the financial system"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-equated-toxic-pre-crisis-192241795.html

[JayJuanGee]

If you're worried because of the recent dip, you're not doing it right.

Zoom out and enjoy the view.

@LFC: I hear you, but don't worry too much, it will come, and soon. In fact, I'm looking forward to buying my next $1k+ smartphone with your $50 prize money (there will be change for the beers too). When this happens, Bitcoin price will be at $180k+ and we will all be ecstatic. And it will happen sooner than many of us expect.

Onwards & upwards.

HoDL.

Edit: Fixed typo.

Initially, I was going to suggest not to spend the $50 bucks - but hey, we should be trying to be "real" about these kinds of matters, and at some point it will be just great to pull that trigger.. It's not like your only BTC, even though it has some symbolic value... but jeez.. $180k does seem like a nice target price for that $50 sale.. and decent (though not guaranteed) abilities to exercise such option in this particular cycle, rather than having to wait for another cycle.

By the way, I have had some of my own BTC portfolio management issues in the past, and I have created a new goal to attempt to at least hold onto my 0.63BTC (which is three times our current newbie entry stacking goals) through this whole cycle, even if the BTC price goes up to $180k.. so that HODL stash would be $113,400 in value at that time... (not trying to count chickens before they hatch, but great, great.. feels good man.)

[edited out]

 We can all participate in an experiment but we'll need a control group to sell all their bitcoin now while the rest of you hodl.  The next near perfect alignment:



 Edit: In general, the proper method is to sell the eclipse and buy the equinox.

Ok.  You go first.

I will watch, and if it works for you, then I will do it next time.  maybe?

but probably not..especially since I already know what actually works.. hahahahaha.

A pump for ants. After the Evergrande thing seems solved you would expect a huge recovery. Anyway, I believe October will be glorious.

I think the SEC stuff has people worried for some damn reason.

That's what is worrying me as well. If there will be really a new ATH in the next months, I will exit with 50% of my holdings. People still believe politicians and these fake "charity" organizations are their friends. I did not expect they come so early after crypto. But I guess El Salvador amped things up. I would not wonder if El Salvador did that on purpose to get the stone rolling.

You are coming off as quasi-incoherent UnDerDoG81 and perhaps a wee bit emotional... including your reference to "charity" organizations, whatever that means?  You talking about government organizations or some organizations that might be targeted by recent SEC actions?

You are selling half your BTC stash at our new ATH, presuming that we get there?  That's strange because if we get to new ATH in coming months, that would seem more like a HODL or even a buying opportunity rather than selling opportunity, not that I am an advocate of buying BTC on the way up, but reaching a new ATH in the coming months would likely be a bullish sign - in spite your various expressed skepticisms of current macro-considerations - or even potential ongoing and increasing hostilities directed towards bitcoin.

Regarding your comment of El Salvador and crypto, hard to know what you mean.  El Salvador legalized bitcoin, not crypto, even though there are a bunch of shitcoins going into that space to leech off of bitcoin's security blanket, and yeah if there are some institutional concerns about the actions of El Salvador, then there are likely to be some scramblings of institutions and governments in terms of figuring out how to deal with the matter, if they are going to be able to realistically deal with bitcoin (or crypto for that matter) in a way that brings them some comfort in spite issues of jurisdictional arbitrage and the fact that there is not a world government, even if some governments and institutions are more imposing and influential than others (at least for the moment), and if you really believe that the various institutional and government actions are going to hamper the upside potential of bitcoin for this upcoming price rise, then sure that is possible. 

Almost every historical BTC price pump has also included various kinds of doom and gloom concerns around bitcoin while it was pumping in opposition to such overall ongoing concerns then being expressed during each past exponential price growth (blow off top, if you want to call it) period.

So, sure something in the range of our current ATH could end up being our top for this cycle,

or we might top off somewhere before $100k.

or in the range of $100k to $200k,

or in the range of $200k to $400k,

or in the range of $400k to $800k,

or in the range of $800k to $1.5mil,

or supra $1.5 mil. 

I have given my placement of odds for these various topping out scenarios in some of my past posts including considering that the top could end up stretching out as far as the 3rd quarter 2022. 

And sure, for me selling 50% of your BTC stash at our current ATH, if we get there.. seems a wee bit pessimistic and short-sighted.. but hey, you do you, and you are the ONLY one to know how much overinvested in BTC that you might be, or if you believe that you are adequately prepared for possible UPpity scenarios that go beyond our current ATH, including if you believe selling 50% of your stash would be prudent and reasonable in terms of where bitcoin is at currently in this cycle and your own psychological and financial circumstances and giving some considerations of various possible upside ranges for this particular cycle (including that we might not even make it to our already ATH within this particular cycle which is far from a non-zero chance.. perhaps even as high as 40% to 50% that we would not even make it to our already ATH this cycle.. who knows for sure?). 

In essence none of us should be putting more weight than deserved to upside BTC price scenarios, and so we do have to consider our own allocations and even that skimming off too much could have negative ramifications as well as just letting the BTC ride whether it is just a kind of skimming for this cycle or through various continued cycles in spite of possible price corrections and even premature entrance into a bear market.. and I doubt that current news is really justifying those kinds of seemingly extra-bearish conclusions as you, UnDerDoG81, seem to be making and seemed to have been historically inclined to make.. even though you sometimes have presented ur lil selfie as a strong hand, but that surely has not been my recollection of your historical contemporaneous actions/statements.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

So a friend of mine is with KBC (bank) Didn't had any issues sending money in or out, from today they don't allow any deposits or whitdrawls anymore...

They getting more and more afraid, the dumb banks don't embrace or try to embrace BTC... they will get rekt thats a fact.

[eddie13]

If you're worried because of the recent dip, you're not doing it right.

Zoom out and enjoy the view.

@LFC: I hear you, but don't worry too much, it will come, and soon. In fact, I'm looking forward to buying my next $1k+ smartphone with your $50 prize money (there will be change for the beers too). When this happens, Bitcoin price will be at $180k+ and we will all be ecstatic. And it will happen sooner than many of us expect.

Onwards & upwards.

HoDL.

Edit: Fixed typo.

Initially, I was going to suggest not to spend the $50 bucks - but hey, we should be trying to be "real" about these kinds of matters, and at some point it will be just great to pull that trigger.. It's not like your only BTC, even though it has some symbolic value... but jeez.. $180k does seem like a nice target price for that $50 sale.. and decent (though not guaranteed) abilities to exercise such option in this particular cycle, rather than having to wait for another cycle.

By the way, I have had some of my own BTC portfolio management issues in the past, and I have created a new goal to attempt to at least hold onto my 0.63BTC (which is three times our current newbie entry stacking goals) through this whole cycle, even if the BTC price goes up to $180k.. so that HODL stash would be $113,400 in value at that time... (not trying to count chickens before they hatch, but great, great.. feels good man.)

[edited out]

 We can all participate in an experiment but we'll need a control group to sell all their bitcoin now while the rest of you hodl.  The next near perfect alignment:



 Edit: In general, the proper method is to sell the eclipse and buy the equinox.

Ok.  You go first.

I will watch, and if it works for you, then I will do it next time.  maybe?

but probably not..especially since I already know what actually works.. hahahahaha.

A pump for ants. After the Evergrande thing seems solved you would expect a huge recovery. Anyway, I believe October will be glorious.

I think the SEC stuff has people worried for some damn reason.

That's what is worrying me as well. If there will be really a new ATH in the next months, I will exit with 50% of my holdings. People still believe politicians and these fake "charity" organizations are their friends. I did not expect they come so early after crypto. But I guess El Salvador amped things up. I would not wonder if El Salvador did that on purpose to get the stone rolling.

You are coming off as quasi-incoherent UnDerDoG81 and perhaps a wee bit emotional... including your reference to "charity" organizations, whatever that means?  You talking about government organizations or some organizations that might be targeted by recent SEC actions?

You are selling half your BTC stash at our new ATH, presuming that we get there?  That's strange because if we get to new ATH in coming months, that would seem more like a HODL or even a buying opportunity rather than selling opportunity, not that I am an advocate of buying BTC on the way up, but reaching a new ATH in the coming months would likely be a bullish sign - in spite your various expressed skepticisms of current macro-considerations - or even potential ongoing and increasing hostilities directed towards bitcoin.

Regarding your comment of El Salvador and crypto, hard to know what you mean.  El Salvador legalized bitcoin, not crypto, even though there are a bunch of shitcoins going into that space to leech off of bitcoin's security blanket, and yeah if there are some institutional concerns about the actions of El Salvador, then there are likely to be some scramblings of institutions and governments in terms of figuring out how to deal with the matter, if they are going to be able to realistically deal with bitcoin (or crypto for that matter) in a way that brings them some comfort in spite issues of jurisdictional arbitrage and the fact that there is not a world government, even if some governments and institutions are more imposing and influential than others (at least for the moment), and if you really believe that the various institutional and government actions are going to hamper the upside potential of bitcoin for this upcoming price rise, then sure that is possible. 

Almost every historical BTC price pump has also included various kinds of doom and gloom concerns around bitcoin while it was pumping in opposition to such overall ongoing concerns then being expressed during each past exponential price growth (blow off top, if you want to call it) period.

So, sure something in the range of our current ATH could end up being our top for this cycle,

or we might top off somewhere before $100k.

or in the range of $100k to $200k,

or in the range of $200k to $400k,

or in the range of $400k to $800k,

or in the range of $800k to $1.5mil,

or supra $1.5 mil. 

I have given my placement of odds for these various topping out scenarios in some of my past posts including considering that the top could end up stretching out as far as the 3rd quarter 2022. 

And sure, for me selling 50% of your BTC stash at our current ATH, if we get there.. seems a wee bit pessimistic and short-sighted.. but hey, you do you, and you are the ONLY one to know how much overinvested in BTC that you might be, or if you believe that you are adequately prepared for possible UPpity scenarios that go beyond our current ATH, including if you believe selling 50% of your stash would be prudent and reasonable in terms of where bitcoin is at currently in this cycle and your own psychological and financial circumstances and giving some considerations of various possible upside ranges for this particular cycle (including that we might not even make it to our already ATH within this particular cycle which is far from a non-zero chance.. perhaps even as high as 40% to 50% that we would not even make it to our already ATH this cycle.. who knows for sure?). 

In essence none of us should be putting more weight than deserved to upside BTC price scenarios, and so we do have to consider our own allocations and even that skimming off too much could have negative ramifications as well as just letting the BTC ride whether it is just a kind of skimming for this cycle or through various continued cycles in spite of possible price corrections and even premature entrance into a bear market.. and I doubt that current news is really justifying those kinds of seemingly extra-bearish conclusions as you, UnDerDoG81, seem to be making and seemed to have been historically inclined to make.. even though you sometimes have presented ur lil selfie as a strong hand, but that surely has not been my recollection of your historical contemporaneous actions/statements.

0.63BTC?

[goldkingcoiner]

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/ing-kontogebuehren-verwahrtentgelt-strafzinsen-101.html


^This German bank is threatening their customers. Either you accept higher fees or your account gets scrapped. How is this even legal? This is why Bitcoin is king. Get your money out of the filthy hands of the bankers before they decide it's not your choice.

[wachtwoord]

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/ing-kontogebuehren-verwahrtentgelt-strafzinsen-101.html


^This German bank is threatening their customers. Either you accept higher fees or your account gets scrapped. How is this even legal? This is why Bitcoin is king. Get your money out of the filthy hands of the bankers before they decide it's not your choice.

This is not really new and believe it or not more customer friendly than before.

Before, banks would change the conditions unilatterally and notify their customers who needed to actively object (leading to termination of their account) or automatically be considered to consent to the new agreement.

Recently that practice was challenged in court and the judge decided banks need to ask for active consent to change the conditions.

The outcome is all German bank do this now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dabs]

What kind of fees are we talking about? Monthly fees or per-transaction fee or transfer fee? I mean, they all have horrible interest rates so the only reason to use banks would be if they had debit cards and you wanted to pay with those cards. Or bills. Or something for convenience.

I still do try to sign up more bank accounts while I can, as long as they are free or very low cost.

[DeathAngel]

@BitcoinMagazine
Football legend @TomBrady said he would "love" to get paid in #Bitcoin



https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1440728310841950208?s=21

[philipma1957]

I can guarantee you that lost btc address will eventually be subject to forfeit much like an old bank account with no action gets grabbed.

An untouched btc address in terms of no funds ever removed will be considered lost .


The funds will be folded back into mining rewards for blocks.

To anyone that thinks I am wrong I simply laugh.

Zero reason not to do it. Say in 2059 all 2009 address must show some withdrawal or lost.

To those that say no privacy I say you are clueless.

To those that say it will be outvoted maybe in 2059 it will be outvoted but down the road say 2084 or 2109 it will be out voted.

[wachtwoord]

I can guarantee you that lost btc address will eventually be subject to forfeit much like an old bank account with no action gets grabbed.

An untouched btc address in terms of no funds ever removed will be considered lost .


The funds will be folded back into mining rewards for blocks.

To anyone that thinks I am wrong I simply laugh.

Zero reason not to do it. Say in 2059 all 2009 address must show some withdrawal or lost.

To those that say no privacy I say you are clueless.

To those that say it will be outvoted maybe in 2059 it will be outvoted but down the road say 2084 or 2109 it will be out voted.

Zero reason to do it. No benefit.

[nanobtc]

We (royal that is) have already figured out that your squigglies are quasi-random because they have close to no explanation in regards to their placement.

Go figure...

You may want to educate us on that if you know better.

No, Dear God no......

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation