Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

When the shit is going to hit the ceiling, don't lower the shit, but raise the ceiling:

The only question is how long until the republicans cave?

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[Torque]

When the shit is going to hit the ceiling, don't lower the shit, but raise the ceiling:

The only question is how long until the republicans cave?

It's all just clown show political theater.

They'll cave precisely as agreed, likely on Oct. 18th. Gotta have those optics.

Both the $3.5T spending bill and the debt ceiling raise will get shoved through.

Wouldn't matter who was in office either.

[sirazimuth]

.....
You way of saying : "I snatched a bag of cocaine into my rectum through an airport and it leaked so I needed hospitalization from the OD!"

...and I thought I had a weird sense of humor....

[JayJuanGee]

The 'investor' class here might argue that it ain't so and mining reacts to price and not vice versa, but bitcoin network IS based on mining, so I would respectfully disagree with such opinions. Who knows, maybe the price is sniffing out this possibility.

I don't see your point in trying to denigrate the "investor class" by suggesting that they might not know what they are talking about, especially when you seem to be stating a wrong theory.  You believe that miners, such as philip, know what moves the direction of the BTC price better merely because he happens to be a miner and merely because he also seems to subscribe to such nonsense thoughts that the miners are pushing BTC's price direction?

Sure, in the end, you can believe what you want, even if it hardly makes any sense... and I am not even going to proclaim that have no influence on price, but suggesting that they are driving the price seems like nearly pure pie in the sky thinking... because they are ONLY like one in 7 effects.. so perhaps 1/7 effect.. or maybe 1/3 effects could be reasonable rather than asserting that they have some kind of majority influence or some other simplified nonsense like that.  

with no new miners there will be no significant bitcoin price appreciation (let's make it a proclamation #1).

Sounds like nonsense to me.   Yes, I understand that you would like to roll your own price prediction models, no matter how fantastical they might be.

Accordingly, if we are looking at medium to longer term, and let's say four-year cycles, then our currently top three credible models remain some kind of combination of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects... yeah, sure even with some kind of attempted hybridization of the top three models, there is still going to be probability assignments based on whatever time frame that we might be looking at and then short-term BTC price movements can mess up momentum or even a kind of need to shift the curves - so with all kinds of short-term happenings such as momentum, happenings in the shitcoin space, various bearish or bullish news, pulling of hashpower or increases to hash power or other factors, these could well have some affects on short term momentum in one direction or another, but still the overall underlying pressures involving factors of the three above listed models are likely to continue to have pulling effects on the BTC price that surely continue to cause BTC to be a great asymmetric bet to the upside (aka number go up (NGU) technologies)....

Yes, longer term is a much different story. The context was short-term analysis and get-rich-quick noobs.

If you cannot recall correctly, we were talking long .  Torque was poo-pooing stock-to-flow and suggesting that newbies are too reliant upon S2F being 100% correct.

Furthermore, many times we are mixing our short-medium-long term proclamations, so in that regard, if you had not noticed, there are a lot of regulars in this thread who spend a lot of time both downplaying short-term BTC price movements and a lot of the seeming messiness that comes within a lot of 4-year cycles, and even when longer term members try to stay focus on the long term, there can be a lot of additional confusion regarding at what stage of any 4-year cycle that we might be and even reasonable questioning whether the 4-year cycle still applies... So, even when there might be a lot of short-term noise going on, even concerns that bitcoin might be dead for real (or forever) this time, it really does not seem to hurt a whole hell of a lot to be both attempting to identify the existence of longer term theories and attempting to highlight factual circumstances that help us with figuring out our current location in such cycle, if that is even identifiable.

.....
You way of saying : "I snatched a bag of cocaine into my rectum through an airport and it leaked so I needed hospitalization from the OD!"

...and I thought I had a weird sense of humor....

And, I did not know that anyone could actually learn something from Save the RF..

 

[philipma1957]

OT: Say hello to Amazon's next spy device 2.0:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/28/22697244/amazon-astro-home-robot-hands-on-features-price

Instead of merely listening in on your conversation like Echo, it'll follow you around from room to room and both listen and record video! And case your house! Oh joy!

If you live alone and are old maybe its okay ✅

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nanobtc]

OT: Say hello to Amazon's next spy device 2.0:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/28/22697244/amazon-astro-home-robot-hands-on-features-price

Instead of merely listening in on your conversation like Echo, it'll follow you around from room to room and both listen and record video! And case your house! Oh joy!

If you live alone and are old maybe its okay ✅

"Astro, remind me who I am".

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

It's just that it seems so unlike this thread, the only thread that you can discuss important things in without snowflakes interfering.
And now it seems to be going the way of other threads.
Nothing wrong with discussing it in another thread, but I think it was wrong "banning" the discussion in this thread.
Bob is deleting my posts anyway so I'll just have to post whatever I might have to say on the subject here regardless.

Make a thread yourself, point out the points you wanna discuss... Same as Bob does easy as that, people will chose which chain they follow and use...

But GL with that one, Bob is kinda populair 

Well, since my point is that there shouldn't be another thread, that would kind of defeat the purpose.

[Hueristic]

It's just that it seems so unlike this thread, the only thread that you can discuss important things in without snowflakes interfering.
And now it seems to be going the way of other threads.
Nothing wrong with discussing it in another thread, but I think it was wrong "banning" the discussion in this thread.
Bob is deleting my posts anyway so I'll just have to post whatever I might have to say on the subject here regardless.

Make a thread yourself, point out the points you wanna discuss... Same as Bob does easy as that, people will chose which chain they follow and use...

But GL with that one, Bob is kinda populair 

Well, since my point is that there shouldn't be another thread, that would kind of defeat the purpose.

The point is this is a self moderating thread and if the majority doesn't want covid crap talk then we should respect that and use a location that Bob generously setup for us.

I really can't see why you would be so dense as to have to have that explained to you.

[Arriemoller]

Good morning!
I'm back after a nice 11 hour sleep and some coffee.

After some early morning thinking I think I know what started my anger. It was Jimbo's impolite post where he, for no reason, called my thoughts "covid propaganda" and told me to move that "crap" to Bobs thread.
That triggered me, had his post been a normal polite post I would probably just have written a normal post about why I don't like that and then just gone to Bob's thread.

This in combination with my disappointment in Bob triggered my harsh wording, (although I don't think sissy and snowflake are particularly harsh words).

I always figured Bob to be someone who would stand up for free speech and fight against cancel culture and not cave in to snowflake behavior, instead he appeased the "snowflakes" and started a thread for the cancelled. I saw, (and still see) him as an enabler.
This made me very disappointed in him and made me loose a lot of my respect for him.
Having said that, it's not Bobs fault that he doesn't live up to my expectations, so I won't pick on him any further, but I won't be apologizing either, I still think he's an enabler.

During my morning thinking I also realized something about Jimbo, but that's for another occasion.

And by that I'm done with the Bob skirmish.

[marcus_of_augustus]

The point is this is a self moderating thread and if the majority doesn't want covid crap talk

... which majority was that?

... the leftist, shouty, blocking-my-ears-now, brain-washed don't count

[BobLawblaw]

The point is this is a self moderating thread and if the majority doesn't want covid crap talk then we should respect that and use a location that Bob generously setup for us.
I really can't see why you would be so dense as to have to have that explained to you.

To be fair, I was deleting his posts and denying him an outlet - a poor, rash decision that I apologize for, in retrospect; have corrected - and should not be an issue moving forward for Arrie (or any other person on my ignore list, for that matter - unless I get reports they are shitting the place up)

Shit, I even engaged JJG for the first time in, like, I can't remember when.

Furthermore, I do want to clarify, that WO casuals do have an implied welcome to post.

The "No Hat? Fuck Off!" is simply one layer of a loose filter system - if there is meaningful contribution by an outsider, I don't see the point of deleting it - same as if an outsider came in here and made an insightful post.

Anyway, looking like corn going into NGU mode...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

The point is this is a self moderating thread and if the majority doesn't want covid crap talk

... which majority was that?

... the leftist, shouty, blocking-my-ears-now, brain-washed don't count

The Adults.

You know, the ones that don't throw ad homens when they don't like what doesn't fit into their little world view.

[Hueristic]

The point is this is a self moderating thread and if the majority doesn't want covid crap talk then we should respect that and use a location that Bob generously setup for us.
I really can't see why you would be so dense as to have to have that explained to you.

To be fair, I was deleting his posts and denying him an outlet - a poor, rash decision that I apologize for, in retrospect; have corrected - and should not be an issue moving forward for Arrie (or any other person on my ignore list, for that matter - unless I get reports they are shitting the place up)

Shit, I even engaged JJG for the first time in, like, I can't remember when.

Furthermore, I do want to clarify, that WO casuals do have an implied welcome to post.

The "No Hat? Fuck Off!" is simply one layer of a loose filter system - if there is meaningful contribution by an outsider, I don't see the point of deleting it - same as if an outsider came in here and made an insightful post.

Didn't realize you were deleting his posts, glad you sorted that.

[Arriemoller]

It's just that it seems so unlike this thread, the only thread that you can discuss important things in without snowflakes interfering.
And now it seems to be going the way of other threads.
Nothing wrong with discussing it in another thread, but I think it was wrong "banning" the discussion in this thread.
Bob is deleting my posts anyway so I'll just have to post whatever I might have to say on the subject here regardless.

Make a thread yourself, point out the points you wanna discuss... Same as Bob does easy as that, people will chose which chain they follow and use...

But GL with that one, Bob is kinda populair 

Well, since my point is that there shouldn't be another thread, that would kind of defeat the purpose.

The point is this is a self moderating thread and if the majority doesn't want covid crap talk then we should respect that and use a location that Bob generously setup for us.

I really can't see why you would be so dense as to have to have that explained to you.

What "majority", screaming the loudest doesn't make you a "majority".

[Hueristic]

What "majority", screaming the loudest doesn't make you a "majority".

English, use your english.

Who's screaming here?

[Arriemoller]

What "majority", screaming the loudest doesn't make you a "majority".

English, use your english.

Who's screaming here?

That's exactly how cancel culture works, you take a free speech thread and start calling people with views you don't like names, like "dense" and try to ridicule them and demand that they shut up or move somewhere else.
In the end, if you do not stand up against that behavior, all that is left is well, the cancel culture left and their views.

[OutOfMemory]

.....
You way of saying : "I snatched a bag of cocaine into my rectum through an airport and it leaked so I needed hospitalization from the OD!"

...and I thought I had a weird sense of humor....

...and i thought savetherainforest is on every WO's ignore list...