Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[Copetech]

Looks like Gold prices are finally starting to feel the upward push of inflationary policy. I think our BTC rise so far this month has been more of a self fulfilling prophecy situation. Price going up because everyone is expecting it to go up Oct. through Dec. But now Gold is showing the natural effects of money printer go brrr and we'll start to see BTC accelerate in its uppity climb.

Anyone buying "gold" without holding shiny metal in their grubby paws is in for a shock when they open the vaults.

Completely agree, which is why the small amounts of gold & Silver I have bought are safely locked up in my bug-out bag that is meant to allow me to get out of the city so that I can sustain myself off the woodlands and streams if OMFG Shit Hit's the Fan moment ever happens. For me it is meant to be a currency in a situation where currencies generally have no value. Not an investment, rather a survival tool.

BUT... There are still a lot of people that trade PM's as an inflation hedge, so I still consider it a good indicator for market psychology.

(BTW Welcome Back $57k!)

[BobLawblaw]

Adrenochrome

/s

[JayJuanGee]

Haha found this funny article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2017/08/15/a-bitcoin-is-worth-4000-why-you-probably-should-not-own-one/?sh=40081f113b08

Pay attention to the date it was published (Aug 2017). The conclusion was the best part haha:

Unless you are a professional trader, or you simply want to gamble, stay away from Bitcoins.  They have no inherent value, because they are a currency which represents value rather than having value themselves.  The Bitcoin currency is not managed by any government agency, nor is it backed by any government.  Bitcoin values are purely dependent upon holders having faith they will continue to have value.  Right now the market looks a lot more like tulip mania than careful investing.

So beware guys, Bitcoin is a bubble.  

I am curious what he will do after he sees this bubble

Maybe he is crying not involving in bitcoin.

There must be thousands of such articles. That one was published in Forbes, which is prestigious, but I think a compilation of articles warning that Bitcoin had no intrinsic value and the like would be enough to write a book.

Btw, thanks to xhomerx10 for designing my new hat.

I wonder if he got paid to make that article and tell the public that bitcoin is not worth the investment because, as an expert, he should search for more info about bitcoin before writing the article. Many articles about the bad investment in bitcoin, but the author does not know anything about bitcoin and does not follow the bitcoin journey from the beginning until now.

Huh?

What's new about that?

Many mainstream writers do not know very much about bitcoin, but does not stop them from writing superficial hit pieces about it, whether we are talking historically or currently.  Surely the talking points and the distractions are going to change with the passage of time, so some kinds of arguments are not going to play as well now as compared with 4 years ago, but does not stop them from publishing superficial hit pieces, even if they are publishing from a supposed credible financial journal.

They do begin to look more and more stupid, if they fail/refuse to account for some of the more in-depth analysis, but some of those "credible" journals are ready, willing and able to take such chances... and come up with some excuse later (maybe 4 years later) regarding how wrong they were and how dumb their article looked in retrospect.

Question for BobLawBlaw and all of the Wo

I am a 64 year old white straight guy.  If I wear these eyeglasses





and a dungaree jacket with the wording

"I am taking back the rainbow for straight people"

 across the back , am I an a-hole?



I always liked rainbows since I was  kid and now rainbows seem to be gay property.

Not trolling just starting a dialog.

BTW I could write  "rainbows are also for straight people".

Much less aggressive your opinions are welcome

How about:  "rainbows are for everyone"    or some variation of that ?  Without getting into any mention of straight or gay or whatever.  Why use provocative language when there seems to be no need for that.

nice idle/clicker game with bitcoin context: http://bitsim.beepboopbitcoin.com/

At some point, I should have withdrew my bitcoin.. I kept buying... whoops.

Looks like Gold prices are finally starting to feel the upward push of inflationary policy. I think our BTC rise so far this month has been more of a self fulfilling prophecy situation. Price going up because everyone is expecting it to go up Oct. through Dec. But now Gold is showing the natural effects of money printer go brrr and we'll start to see BTC accelerate in its uppity climb.

Oh?  I did not know that bitcoin's investment thesis was a self-fulfilling prophecy..   wow.,. and I did not know that bitcoin was going up merely because more and more people believe.. I thought that there was more there there.

Self-fulfilling prophecy seems to be a pretty damned superficial reason to be into bitcoin.

Whatever, you can believe what you want in regards to why you are into bitcoin, what makes price go uppity (or otherwise) and what kinds of dynamics underly bitcoin's investment thesis.

"Rainbows are for everyone".

 Seems to be best choice for the jacket lettering. Along with the glasses of course

Whoops.. you beat me to it...

[JimboToronto]

Taking back the rainbow for stoners



Nobody owns rainbows, they're a natural phenomenon. I do have a particular issue with the way the alphabet people are using it because they originally were using it to promote tolerance but now it's all about exclusion and all sorts of nonsense.

"Alphabet people" Lawl.
_____

Taking back the rainbow for leprechauns:

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/raphschoen/status/1448012347533107202?s=21

Exactly what I tell new peepers well

Just add 5. At bigger DIPS buy some more if possible.

[Torque]

https://twitter.com/raphschoen/status/1448012347533107202?s=21

Exactly what I tell new peepers well

Just add 5. At bigger DIPS buy some more if possible.

Also to take it a step further:

Take at least 50% of the money you would sink each year into your 401k, and invest that directly into bitcoin instead.

Then compare the two investment vehicles' progress at 5 years, 10, 15, 20.

You'll quickly realize how sorry you are that you didn't invest the other 50% into bitcoin as well.

[Copetech]

 

Looks like Gold prices are finally starting to feel the upward push of inflationary policy. I think our BTC rise so far this month has been more of a self fulfilling prophecy situation. Price going up because everyone is expecting it to go up Oct. through Dec. But now Gold is showing the natural effects of money printer go brrr and we'll start to see BTC accelerate in its uppity climb.

Oh?  I did not know that bitcoin's investment thesis was a self-fulfilling prophecy..   wow.,. and I did not know that bitcoin was going up merely because more and more people believe.. I thought that there was more there there.

Self-fulfilling prophecy seems to be a pretty damned superficial reason to be into bitcoin.

Whatever, you can believe what you want in regards to why you are into bitcoin, what makes price go uppity (or otherwise) and what kinds of dynamics underly bitcoin's investment thesis.

Oh Come On Now J1G! Nobody can deny that a certain percentage of any investment asset is based on psychology & speculation!

Not even implying that it's the only factor moving the price, in fact I explicitly said otherwise in the quote above, but if the general consensus amongst all the "experts" is that it's a 4 year cycle based on halvings and that the price will rise in the 4th quarter, you'd  almost have to assume a goodly number of peeps will act on that knowledge. And if more people are willing and even eager to buy at higher prices, of course the value will go up. That's exactly how value is determined in any market.

So general consensus this year has been that we'd see a spike in price in the 4th quarter, therefore, even if the underlying reason for said spike had not yet come to fruition, you could reasonably expect at least some rise purely based on the speculation. Therefore, self fulfilling prophecy. Then when the fundamentals catch up, that rise accelerates. And when it really gets fired up FOMO kicks in and you generally get a blow off top. You disagree?

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like Gold prices are finally starting to feel the upward push of inflationary policy. I think our BTC rise so far this month has been more of a self fulfilling prophecy situation. Price going up because everyone is expecting it to go up Oct. through Dec. But now Gold is showing the natural effects of money printer go brrr and we'll start to see BTC accelerate in its uppity climb.

Still down from ATH 10 years ago when measured in dollars which in fact means gold has not even kept its value against inflation at all.

That pretty much sucks I would say also considering storage fees (if you don't keep bars locked away at home at least).

Even if you don't care for crypto property would be a far better bet.

Gold is like keeping cash in a 0,01% interest savings account.

What's crypto property?  Why would anyone want something like that?  Sounds like a bit of a weird and amorphous concept.

[infofront]

New poll time!

Old poll:

[lightfoot]

BUT... There are still a lot of people that trade PM's as an inflation hedge, so I still consider it a good indicator for market psychology.

(BTW Welcome Back $57k!)

Oh boy, Gold is going up? Wow, $1900!!!!

You know, if it just goes up another 55,000 it will match Bitcoin over the same few years. Those of us who traded Bitcoin for Gold to "diversify our portfolio" are still waiting.....

(Thank God I quit that job near the Gold coin shop before I spent much BTC. One of the better decisions in my life in retrospect)

[infofront]

@BTC_Archive
#Bitcoin  bull market is just chilling.
The party starts when the 200D moving average turns green/yellow....then orange/red! 🚀

https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1448291586878623748?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

More like: "I am taking back the rainbow for Christians”

Pretty ballsy to be waving the symbol of gods promise not to flood the earth again in his face like that.. Methinks..

ARE you an A-hole just because some people think your are one?
What about the people who thing they are A-holes for using that symbol? Are they all A-holes because some people think they are?

I guess it depends on whose opinions you give a shit about, if any..

Taking back the rainbow for stoners



Nobody owns rainbows, they're a natural phenomenon. I do have a particular issue with the way the alphabet people are using it because they originally were using it to promote tolerance but now it's all about exclusion and all sorts of nonsense.

Sorry to show one of my pet peeve "insensitivities," but one of my semantics issues concerns the calling of pregnant woman as people... "People" need blah and blah and blah.. , and in that context the reference is to  "pregnant people" which in my thinking is quite a bit better (and less ambiguous) to refer to as such "pregnant people" as women.. or some variation of women that does not include men (or some variation of men).

https://twitter.com/raphschoen/status/1448012347533107202?s=21

Exactly what I tell new peepers well

Just add 5. At bigger DIPS buy some more if possible.

Also to take it a step further:

Take at least 50% of the money you would sink each year into your 401k, and invest that directly into bitcoin instead.

Then compare the two investment vehicles' progress at 5 years, 10, 15, 20.

You'll quickly realize how sorry you are that you didn't invest the other 50% into bitcoin as well.

That is a fairly BIG dilemma for normies.  I feel somewhat out of place to be contemplating such dilemma - because the main years that I was investing into a 401k, I did not really know about bitcoin - so my getting into bitcoin was to replace my 401k investment with a new investment... and I was no longer eligible for 401k investing at the time that I started buying BTC in late 2013.

So the dilemma is to have a potential for matching funds and tax deferral.  Depending on the 401k plan, the matching funds will likely go up to a certain percentage of income or a certain amount of income.... I had the first 5% matching funds and then after that I could invest up to the yearly maximum with merely tax deferral.  I always considered that there were a lot of advantages in terms of investing at least as much as the matching funds, and then after that it was more ambiguous about what to do in terms of maxing out the yearly allowance.  Probably, I would still say to maximize the matching, and then just invest at least the same amount into bitcoin, if that were to be affordable.. so kind of assuming 10% of income into those two investments (5% 401k and 5% bitcoin)... but surely, individual circumstances should be taken into account in order to figure out these kinds of matters, and if your budget might allow for more.. or maybe if yo might be over extending yourself, too in terms of all of your monthly expenses in light of your income (monthly cashflow).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like Gold prices are finally starting to feel the upward push of inflationary policy. I think our BTC rise so far this month has been more of a self fulfilling prophecy situation. Price going up because everyone is expecting it to go up Oct. through Dec. But now Gold is showing the natural effects of money printer go brrr and we'll start to see BTC accelerate in its uppity climb.

Oh?  I did not know that bitcoin's investment thesis was a self-fulfilling prophecy..   wow.,. and I did not know that bitcoin was going up merely because more and more people believe.. I thought that there was more there there.

Self-fulfilling prophecy seems to be a pretty damned superficial reason to be into bitcoin.

Whatever, you can believe what you want in regards to why you are into bitcoin, what makes price go uppity (or otherwise) and what kinds of dynamics underly bitcoin's investment thesis.

Oh Come On Now J1G! Nobody can deny that a certain percentage of any investment asset is based on psychology & speculation!

"Certain percentage" is different from "self-fulfilling prophecy."  So you are changing your characterization if you are now asserting certain percentage.

Not even implying that it's the only factor moving the price, in fact I explicitly said otherwise in the quote above, but if the general consensus amongst all the "experts" is that it's a 4 year cycle based on halvings and that the price will rise in the 4th quarter, you'd  almost have to assume a goodly number of peeps will act on that knowledge.

Who cares?  It's a distracting way of framing the matter.. but hey, you do what yo want in terms of telling us that bitcoin is fueled by psychology and speculation.

And if more people are willing and even eager to buy at higher prices, of course the value will go up. That's exactly how value is determined in any market.

I doubt that is "exactly" what is happening, but you are free to believe what you want.

So general consensus this year has been that we'd see a spike in price in the 4th quarter, therefore, even if the underlying reason for said spike had not yet come to fruition, you could reasonably expect at least some rise purely based on the speculation. Therefore, self fulfilling prophecy.

Therefore, your framework sucks, as I already suggested.

Then when the fundamentals catch up, that rise accelerates.

Fundamentals do not need to catch up.  They are already there.

And when it really gets fired up FOMO kicks in and you generally get a blow off top. You disagree?

For sure, there is overexuberance that happens in each cycle, and it likely happens several times in any cycle too... in both directions, but I would not frame the matter as if the overexuberance that happens from time to time is what has been driving the BTC price..or even anywhere near the main factor.... even if it happens to be something that is part of the BTC price dynamics.. but you can believe what you want in terms of how much weight you give to varying factors and what you believe the fuels of BTC price happens to be.. and if what you are saying sounds weird or worth commenting on then you might get some push back from yours truly, as you already have gotten some push back and commenting.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Thank you ChartBuddy.
Price of bitcoin is going UP.
Yeah, this is the way.

[OutOfMemory]

So, are "toxic bitcoin maximalists" only considered to be toxic by shitcoiners that don't get that shitcoins are shitcoins?
I was wrapping my mind around this randomly appearing term too much in the last few days.

In other news: Ants at work