Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1713545310]

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[1713545310]

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[AlcoHoDL]

Ha! Early morning, sleeping, and I hear my mobile phone making a funny sound. Something I'd never heard before. I ignored it. Later on in the day, I check and see a Delta (Δ) symbol in the notification area. As it turns out, it was the Delta app I had installed several months ago, notifying me that Bitcoin had crossed the 50,000 € mark! I had forgotten about this app... When I installed it on my phone, I set up alerts on 50k / 60k / 70k / 80k / 90k / 100k € price values. Today was the firing of the 1st one.

I'm thinking I'll be hearing more of that funny alert sound this year...

Onwards & upwards!

HoDL.

You smelly bear!
Stopping your alerts at 100k...

Oh, yes. That's the first thing I thought. Will do it soon, but the increment will be $50k instead of $10k. I will stop at $1M. No point in being alerted past that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

Unofficial WO TOR Router Report: Seem to be in a stable place with the LOOP channel, not even being half-drained so far, this time around. Cranked the fees pretty high, and I believe it's fair to say the fee's for just the LOOP channel alone have likely paid for the channel open/close costs many times over already.

Some transactions I routed earlier today.

[JayJuanGee]

nothing more needs to be said about this

I can add one thing: at some point (when infinite dollars happen), the dollar value is no longer relevant. The purchasing power per Bitcoin has to flatten at some point. I'm now only wondering if that's going to be at 1 house per Bitcoin or 10 houses per Bitcoin

I am not sure, Loyce...

Are you trying to say that bitcoin is "not" designed to pump forever?

Whether we are talking 1 house per BTC or 10 houses per BTC or some other price point, there is a bit of a suggestion that houses (in your example) are as scarce as bitcoin, amiNOTrite?

I will concede with an overall point that our bitcoin price trajectory (including ongoing BTC prices) is going to likely become more and more flat with the passage of time, but I am having some doubts that bitcoin would stay flat relative to any particular asset, such as 10 houses because that would suggest that houses are as rare as bitcoin...

Accordingly, maybe 1 year from now, we have bitcoin valued at 1 house,
then 5 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 10 houses,
then 9 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 16 houses,
then 13 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 24 houses,
then 17 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 34 houses,
then 21 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 44 houses,
then 25 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 52 houses,
then 29 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 58 houses,
etc etc etc

So we end up getting some kind of a flattening of how much bitcoin is going up, but relative to baskets of goods, bitcoin is the most scarce, so I am having some troubles hypothesizing a basket of goods (whether houses or some other basket) in which the assets in the basket are appreciating at the same rate as bitcoin.. but hey.. those are speculations that could take a decently long time to play out.... and may not exactly affect our "today's" investment thesis, even though there can be some good ideas and plans to have some ideas where the long term might be going, even if the details are not really known various aspects of the trajectory are assigned meaningful and significant probabilities.. .so in that regard, any of us might be directionally correct without really knowing too many of the specifics with any kind of high confidence.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LoyceV]

Are you trying to say that bitcoin is "not" designed to pump forever?

I'm saying the planet isn't designed to pump forever

Whether we are talking 1 house per BTC or 10 houses per BTC or some other price point, there is a bit of a suggestion that houses (in your example) are as scarce as bitcoin, amiNOTrite?

Make it 100 houses per Bitcoin, 2.1 billion houses on the planet seams about right.

I will concede with an overall point that our bitcoin price trajectory (including ongoing BTC prices) is going to likely become more and more flat with the passage of time, but I am having some doubts that bitcoin would stay flat relative to any particular asset, such as 10 houses because that would suggest that houses are as rare as bitcoin...

It can't keep going up, otherwise at some point 1 Bitcoin would be worth a billion houses.

Accordingly, maybe 1 year from now, we have bitcoin valued at 1 house,
then 5 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 10 houses,
then 9 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 16 houses,
then 13 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 24 houses,
then 17 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 34 houses,
then 21 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 44 houses,
then 25 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 52 houses,
then 29 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 58 houses,

A flattening S-curve makes sense.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out various car pics]

So you all have 2 phones? My dream is a Porsche 718 GT4. Hopefully I post a picture at the end of this bullrun. Just need a 2nd phone or a GF 

I wonder which is better?  a GF? or a second phone?

...

So you all have 2 phones? My dream is a Porsche 718 GT4. Hopefully I post a picture at the end of this bullrun. Just need a 2nd phone or a GF 

Indeed I also only carry one phone on me ….

if you are willing or able, you can borrow the mobile phone of your wife, gf, child or parents for these few minutes and quickly take a photo
that's how it was in my case too, and certainly with the other two bros as well

Sure... alternatively, if you are not able to acquire a lot of things, then having IRL "friends" could come in handy, too.

Hypothetically speaking, of course.

Ha! Early morning, sleeping, and I hear my mobile phone making a funny sound. Something I'd never heard before. I ignored it. Later on in the day, I check and see a Delta (Δ) symbol in the notification area. As it turns out, it was the Delta app I had installed several months ago, notifying me that Bitcoin had crossed the 50,000 € mark! I had forgotten about this app... When I installed it on my phone, I set up alerts on 50k / 60k / 70k / 80k / 90k / 100k € price values. Today was the firing of the 1st one.

I'm thinking I'll be hearing more of that funny alert sound this year...

Onwards & upwards!

HoDL.

You smelly bear!
Stopping your alerts at 100k...

Oh, yes. That's the first thing I thought. Will do it soon, but the increment will be $50k instead of $10k.

The way that I stagger my BTC sell orders was around $500-ish when we were in the $10ks, but then gradually went up to $1k increments, then $2,500 increments and then $3,333 increments - and shooting for $5k increments, but never arrived there, so far.

When the BTC price corrected back down to $28,600, then I decided to pretty much return the vast majority of both my buy and sell increments back to $1k until we get into the $60ks and above, they resume the getting larger and larger increments.  I am at around $3,333 increments between $100k and $120k, and then go to $5k increments between $120k and $150k... and surely will have to consider what kinds of increments to place for my supra $150k numbers - presuming that we start to get close to those numbers.  I have been having trouble with one of my exchanges that so far has not allowed the placement of BTC sell orders higher than $100k.. so there may be some anxiety around that if we are getting close to that price, but they have not fixed their systems to allow for 6 digit sales of BTC.

Some regulars here may have noticed that I had considered that outlier BTC prices for this particular cycle could go into the $1.5million range, and of course, those are outlier chances that would probably have to drag into the third quarter of 2022 to even be within a kind of realm of outrageous feasibility. 

Currently, I am less worried about sell orders that I have already set, but surely each time that I end up going higher up the BTC price range to set BTC sell orders, there arises a certain level of trepidation, including when those orders end up getting filled in a kind of rapid way.. which seemed to have already happened several times in my BTC experiences, including but not limited to our 2015-2017 journey from $250 to $19,666 and also including our recent journey from $10k-ish to $64,895 (that was between September 2020-ish and April 2021)...

So, yeah each time those sell orders are taken out and there are some needs to add up the stack, there can be a bit of nervousness until they are actually contemplated and decided where there are going, and I suppose if there is some confidence when establishing the amounts in advance, there would be a bit less trepidation when they are actually fulfilling all the way up the chain and into various territories that had previously seemed so damned hypothetical, even when they end up coming true along the way.... nervous and calm all at the same time, if that is even possible? hahahaha   

I will stop at $1M. No point in being alerted past that.

Don't do it, AlcoHoDL!!!!!!!!!

 

Don't you know that expression that people frequently assert in regards if they were to win the lottery? 

Frequently they will say something like:  "If I win the lottery, I am going to keep doing everything the same, but I will just have more comfort in having that extra money.. blah blah blah"

In other words, you better fucking be doing the same thing AlcoHODL... 


Otherwise you are not going to fit in.....

oh wait....

[Phil_S]

I almost feel like buying a trip to the Big Island or something... lol... hmm.

 

[goldkingcoiner]

I almost feel like buying a trip to the Big Island or something... lol... hmm.

 

Squid Game? Fun, but I left because they refused to pay the winnings in Bitcoin. Pff....

[infofront]

BTW - props to El Duderino_ for generously donating his rare, collectable coin set for a great cause!

The auction is live here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5365147.0

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Are you trying to say that bitcoin is "not" designed to pump forever?

I'm saying the planet isn't designed to pump forever

Whether we are talking 1 house per BTC or 10 houses per BTC or some other price point, there is a bit of a suggestion that houses (in your example) are as scarce as bitcoin, amiNOTrite?

Make it 100 houses per Bitcoin, 2.1 billion houses on the planet seams about right.

Of course, maybe you were trying to focus on the end game of bitcoin becoming flat at some point, and I am not even sure that I would concede with you about that particular point that is seeming to go way the hell out into the future...   you are referring to 100 houses and then 2.1 billion houses, and even my ballpark SOMA projection that went out 29 years from now did not get above 58 houses...

Maybe I believe that we have to try to traject more short term before getting too far out there in the pie in the sky scenarios that become less and less relevant, even though there might be some theoretical value in talking about those kinds of things, but in the end, I think that a lot of us are trying to be more concrete in terms of trying to figure out where we are going more immediately and relevant to our current investment thesis.. and gosh even getting 10 years or more down the road can start to become abstract, even though it does not hurt to have some ballpark ideas where you believe bitcoin to be going further out in order to inform you better in terms of trying to prepare in shorter more immediate time frames in terms of today's actions that will help to set any of us up for how we believe some of those further out scenarios might play out.

I will concede with an overall point that our bitcoin price trajectory (including ongoing BTC prices) is going to likely become more and more flat with the passage of time, but I am having some doubts that bitcoin would stay flat relative to any particular asset, such as 10 houses because that would suggest that houses are as rare as bitcoin...

It can't keep going up, otherwise at some point 1 Bitcoin would be worth a billion houses.

Again... I am not sure what good that will do, except in terms of considering various theories regarding a kind of way out there when and how much and blah blah blah... and sure we can concede on some of those points to the extent that they even matter.. you say 1 billion and I say 1 million.. with a kind of ongoing trickling of increasing in the number.. and you say flat and I say trickling.. and can either of us care very much if we are talking 100 years into the future?

I tell you that I would prefer to attempt to give more emphasis to how we traject such a future rather than getting too boggled down on how it might stabilize in 100 or more years or even if you are suggesting that it is only going to take 50 years to get there.. I am still having some difficulties with those kinds of less immediate framing of topics of interest to some of us (royal) normies in this here thread.

Accordingly, maybe 1 year from now, we have bitcoin valued at 1 house,
then 5 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 10 houses,
then 9 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 16 houses,
then 13 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 24 houses,
then 17 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 34 houses,
then 21 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 44 houses,
then 25 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 52 houses,
then 29 years from now we have bitcoin valued at 58 houses,

A flattening S-curve makes sense.

O.k.  we agree somewhat directionally on that.. even though I was attempting to suggest a never ending increase that might be smaller and smaller in terms of percentages, but bitcoin would pretty much always be increasing in value greater than other baskets of assets whether we are referring to houses or some other basket... and I am not sure if you are saying something similar, but you seem to be emphasizing a kind of completely flat, which I don't agree with that kind of hypothesis because it does not make sense to me for the reasons that I have already stated, which was that I believe that bitcoin is the scarcest of scarce so any kind of general basket is not going to keep up.. even though there might be some baskets that perform better than others relative to bitcoin (especially short term).

[xhomerx10]

A GF would likely come with a phone so there's that angle.

[Torque]

Amazing to me that when bitcoin first crossed the $58k/btc mark, everyone was collectively losing their shit.

Now that we're here again, everyone is like "Meh. When $200k?"   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

A GF would likely come with a phone so there's that angle.

Yes.

And what else does she come with?

Negotiations for usage... convenient?  perhaps? perhaps?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

A GF would likely come with a phone so there's that angle.

Hmmm, some interesting, creative ways to interpret this are coming to my mind right now