Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1713933916]

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[1713933916]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Two things about this...  I drew the channel at the point of the line.. interesting...

But the really meaty bit?  Look at that recovery from the big dump.  The smart money is doing EVERYTHING THEY CAN to keep this sucker down while they load up.  But the moment we see what is really happening is when we get a dump... they are gobbling it up like a cloud of piranhas.

[cAPSLOCK]

Peter Thiel thinks he may have met Satoshi Nakamoto and says he knows where he'd look for the mysterious bitcoin creator

"My sort of theory on Satoshi's identity was that Satoshi was on that beach in Anguilla," Thiel said

The billionaire was speaking at a Miami conference Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/peter-thiel-satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoin-creator-anguilla-btc-egold-coinbase-2021-10

Why he even cares?
I cannot think of any possible pure motif.

??

[cAPSLOCK]

I’m ready brotherens

Though I totally get what this guy is saying AND agree with it with my whole body...

Evidently he's not been around long enough to find out you don't tell the corn what it "MUST" do.

[Biodom]

Peter Thiel thinks he may have met Satoshi Nakamoto and says he knows where he'd look for the mysterious bitcoin creator

"My sort of theory on Satoshi's identity was that Satoshi was on that beach in Anguilla," Thiel said

The billionaire was speaking at a Miami conference Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/peter-thiel-satoshi-nakamoto-bitcoin-creator-anguilla-btc-egold-coinbase-2021-10

Why he even cares?
I cannot think of any possible pure motif.

??

I blame the autocorrect..ha ha.

[JayJuanGee]

working on the new chicken barn.

hahahahaha

a chicken barn... hahahahaha

I would call it a chicken coop... but hey, that might just be me.   

well, while i may call my chicken coop a chicken coop too maybe outofmemeory has really, really BIG chickens.

perhaps.. perhaps?

Another angle.  yes.

Either BIG ones or a lot of them or maybe he is just a generous kind of guy.. . to give those chickens lots of space for flying, chickening, or whatever chickens might want to do in their chicken barn..

It's a coop, they're regular chickens, fo sure 

You mean that you do not have stalls to milk your chickens?

I’m ready brotherens

For sure I am bothered by statements about what king daddy "must" do...

Not into that kind of extreme language, even if it is bullish.. and even if there are better ways of saying that the model suggests that the average is $100k for the period, so in order to achieve the average there are going to be a lot of UPpity price pressures in the coming months.. .. or some better way of presenting the matter rather than asserting that our investment thesis in $160k+ is 100% blah blah blah..  there is nothing 100% in this here world, especially when we are referring to the future.. and furthermore a future that involves the behaviors of a number of humans (who happen to have free will, the last time I checked).

[aesma]

I'd be truly surprised if anything became of it. China is too vested in the U.S. to sink their interests, and the rest of the worlds'. That type of war isn't really being fought anymore, we've moved on to other ways, with combat performed by contractors in 3rd world proxys.

China isn't really doing that, though.

The problem with Taiwan is specific, and is used to gather national fervor. Some unrelated crisis in China, say an energy crisis or a real estate one (both happening right now...), and the government might find it's the right time to create a diversion by invading.

But I agree, there is a big risk, and not just with the US, I would think the whole western world would sanction China, so their export economy would be in big trouble.

Biden is simply raising the stakes, since Trump's position was ambiguous.

[JayJuanGee]

This make me think…. If and when I cash out something, the exchanged BTC must have purpose before selling, like buying something I badly want and can’t cover it with my available FIAT

But keep the FIAT in BTC is keeping wealth safe for when inflation/ hyperinflation comes

I understand for sure about spending fiat first and of course other assets/currencies that are less hard than bitcoin, but I still think that you better be considering your cashflows 6 months to 24 months into the future, and you better be careful about holding too much in bitcoin --even if we might want to error a wee bit at this time.. because of where we seem to be in the cycle.. maybe 3 months to 11 months... but there could be a pretty decently sized correction in BTC too that is way greater than the ongoing debasing value of fiat... so when the BTC correction comes it still may well correct 80% or so against the dollar.. .. but there may well be UP before there is down too.. so any correction in BTC may well not get below current prices, so many scenarios to attempt to account for.. but going all in anything remains a dangerous way to present the short to medium term inflation/deflation matters that we face... which also involves a lot of likely volatility during any kind of 6  month to 24 month cashflow projections that any of us are trying to prudently and reasonably make.

[El duderino_]

I’ll know what I’ll be doing tonight

To times is a hint I guess

[UnDerDoG81]

https://twitter.com/greyson2196/status/1451979806262927362?s=21

 

[JayJuanGee]

So... I see that all these Bitcoin ETF launches are by EOY. It's like the SEC is now cramming them all in before Dec 31st.

Hmm...why the rush now SEC? Something happening the first of the new year? Lol sus

Oh gawd Torque...

You never going to get out of your numerological extremes?  Sometimes you just go too far...

Do you believe that there is something significant for the end of the year or what?  Maybe explain a wee bit for some of us who are  a wee bit less conspiracy minded..

This make me think…. If and when I cash out something, the exchanged BTC must have purpose before selling, like buying something I badly want and can’t cover it with my available FIAT

But keep the FIAT in BTC is keeping wealth safe for when inflation/ hyperinflation comes

Exactly! only selling I will ever do is for an emergency or home. The home is still an asset so that should hedge the inflation somewhat, and the emergency, well sometimes shit happens. But other than that 3 months worth of expenses only in fiat and no more. Any more than that I risk my family's future.

Holy fucking shit, somac....  

No wonder you seem to be prone to such extreme panic attacks and emotions in times of extreme BTC price movements.

When I was just out of highschool and barely in the working world (and my financial life was pretty simple back then, relatively speaking), I was able to get away with projecting 6 months ahead on my finances (sure it would not mean having all 6 months locked down in terms of cashflow, but attempting to account for the drying up of some cashflow sources), and part of the reason that 6 months should be around the minimum is because shit fucking happens.. even when we have relatively simple financial lives, but if we have more complicated finances, families, businesses, or even various kinds of leveraging that tends to happen as we get older and we become more sophisticated with our finances (including that we are no longer living in grandma's basement), then we have to plan out longer, including accounting for the drying up of cashflows and perhaps abilities to project out a couple of years.  Sure, that does not mean that we need to have that far out to be liquid, and I agree that the closer out.. such as three months, we better have way more liquidity.. but it is good to have a considerable amount of liquidity that goes out further than 3 months, otherwise we are just going to be prone to panicking during extreme scenarios.. including if BTC were to take a 50% drop in prices.. like it did in May.. and then lasted through June and July.. and for sure the whole negative situation could have ended up playing out longer than 3 months and even could have negatively played out for a couple of years (so there is a need to be prepared for extreme scenarios, even if those extreme scenarios do not end up playing out), and we need to have some preparations

The days of a strong working and middle class (wealth coming from ones labor) are over. The return to strong feudal lords/robber barons (wealth coming from inherited assets, mostly land) is currently in progress. I see this as a kind of reversion to mean as for probably around 99% of human history this has been the case. I am deeply unhappy about this, but, I am thankful that I will at least be in the asset holder class thanks to Bitcoin.

Cannot argue with this last part..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

I’m ready brotherens

Though I totally get what this guy is saying AND agree with it with my whole body...

Evidently he's not been around long enough to find out you don't tell the corn what it "MUST" do.

Yeah, this whole S2F "self-fulfilling prophecy" thing is getting tedious.

I mean, there's nothing to say that the price action couldn't go something like this below. Would the S2F devotees cry then?

[cAPSLOCK]

I’ll know what I’ll be doing tonight

To times is a hint I guess

Big mac?

[Torque]

So... I see that all these Bitcoin ETF launches are by EOY. It's like the SEC is now cramming them all in before Dec 31st.

Hmm...why the rush now SEC? Something happening the first of the new year? Lol sus

Oh gawd Torque...

You never going to get out of your numerological extremes?  Sometimes you just go too far...

Do you believe that there is something significant for the end of the year or what?  Maybe explain a wee bit for some of us who are  a wee bit less conspiracy minded..

No conspiracy, just that the SEC is now rushing and cramming all the BTC ETF approvals into the last few months of 2021, the same ones they kept denying over and over since 2017 (so punting for 4 years straight) even though absolutely nothing in the bitcoin ecosystem or with regulations has even changed since then.

Nothing to see here JJG, don't worry your oie poie lil selfies, so move along...probably just a coincidence.     _{you didn't even bother to look at my post prediction for next year, did ya?}

[cAPSLOCK]

I’m ready brotherens

Though I totally get what this guy is saying AND agree with it with my whole body...

Evidently he's not been around long enough to find out you don't tell the corn what it "MUST" do.

Yeah this whole S2F "self-fulfilling prophecy" thing is getting tedious.

I mean, there's nothing to say that the price action couldn't go something like this below. Would the S2F devotees cry then?

Absolutely.  I think that actually matches some people predictions that are more conservative than PlanB.  Like this one:


I think there is also a significant non-zero possibility that the model breaks to the upside as well.  As in cuts through the 110k line, goes up even higher, and then does not come back down as much as we have seen in past cycles.

I have been predicting that for two years.  Not as a sure fire thing, but with more probability than we have had so far.  And I will gladly eat crow after the next 85% bear.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I’ll know what I’ll be doing tonight

To times is a hint I guess

[OutOfMemory]

Bought a little of this dip @ roughly $60.700 

I had 6 trades going all the way down, and still missed the bottom by $1,100.00! ran outta fiat! Next time!

This is the way to think about it 
Most of the time i was in your situation when i was buying the dip before the real dip(s).
Yesterday, when i was convinced that the bottom was in, i didn't buy as usual. No, i was waiting this time.
Paid off.

#hodl

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation