Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1713435836]

1713435836

[aysg76]

2 active WO’s

Me and my Buddy.

Look's like you and buddy are in race to print hattrick posts and it's going well 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

We are in between 1972 (4.4%) and 1973 (8.8%) as far as inflation is concerned.
By 1980 yearly inflation was 14%.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp

I always thought that we are repeating the 70ies this decade.

BTW, if it more or less repeats, we would be at 15-20% short term bond yields by about 2028-2029.
Stocks would be devastated, not sure about bitcoin. If bitcoin price stabilizes by then, bonds might become more attractive.
Currently, I plan to switch some money to bonds at that time (2028-2029) if I still care about anything.
Alternatively, we can hyperbitconize, which would be just fine.

[aysg76]

Wallmart has partnered with coin cashing machine company Coinstar and crypto exchange coinme to install 200 bitcoin ATM's in its stores across the USA

Although the pilot includes only 200 kiosks the broader plan is to install 8000 ATM's in the stores eventually.

The coindesk editor verified that service works buying a small amount of bitcoin at Pennsylvania Walmart on Oct 12

The world is recognising and businesses knows how to gain profits with going with the market demand and trends and btc is all around.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

Wallmart has partnered with coin cashing machine company Coinstar and crypto exchange coinme to install 200 bitcoin ATM's in its stores across the USA

Although the pilot includes only 200 kiosks the broader plan is to install 8000 ATM's in the stores eventually.

The coindesk editor verified that service works buying a small amount of bitcoin at Pennsylvania Walmart on Oct 12

https://i.ibb.co/dLcmsFC/Screenshot-20211022-232054-01.jpg

The world is recognising and businesses knows how to gain profits with going with the market demand and trends and btc is all around.

Coinstar has had this for a couple of years so not sure what's new here. It sucks though because you can't do the most obvious thing - swap coins for bitcoins.

Also the way it works is kinda clunky, you get a voucher that you need to redeem on Coinme website/app, and of course there is a 10%+ fee for the privilege.

[Hueristic]

holy fuk i'm 2 pages back and i got so wasted tonight i dropped the bike in the middle of th elawnancdi ' m tood rfunk to pick it up !

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nanobtc]

holy fuk i'm 2 pages back and i got so wasted tonight i dropped the bike in the middle of th elawnancdi ' m tood rfunk to pick it up !

"Run, Forrest, Run!"

[Copetech]

holy fuk i'm 2 pages back and i got so wasted tonight i dropped the bike in the middle of th elawnancdi ' m tood rfunk to pick it up !

Just make sure you have the key and leave it till morning. You'll just end up fucking more shit up if you try tonight.

Glad you're home safe, real life drunken motorcycle crashes don't have reset buttons...

Have another shot and call it a night buddy!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

holy fuk i'm 2 pages back and i got so wasted tonight i dropped the bike in the middle of th elawnancdi ' m tood rfunk to pick it up !

hodl

[shahzadafzal]

2 active WO’s

Me and my Buddy.

[JayJuanGee]

Two things about this...  I drew the channel at the point of the line.. interesting...

But the really meaty bit?  Look at that recovery from the big dump.  The smart money is doing EVERYTHING THEY CAN to keep this sucker down while they load up.  But the moment we see what is really happening is when we get a dump... they are gobbling it up like a cloud of piranhas.

I personally have hard times reading much of anything from such short time periods..

I am not saying that the short-term charts do not say anything but the fact of the matter is we remain in the midst of noman's land, and we have not yet broken below $55k.. so as far as I am concerned we are still going UPpity with a wee bit of a pause.

Again, who is gathering what, also?  who knows?  It does seem that a quite a few small players are getting left out if they had NOT already been taking action to accumulate BTC for years, and sure there are going to be a few small players who have been gathering for shorter periods and preparing for UP who will also benefit from our likely ongoing move UPpity.. and decently good chances that we will not be returning to these levels... even some of the BIG players have not gotten the memo (which is largely the same memo that Saylor has been putting out there for about 15 months, so it is not like the information has not been out there for some folks who might have come across it.. but still are not ready, willing or able to both absorb the meaning of the message and the important part of taking action... that is accumulating action aka pee paring for UP.. just in case...)....

So... I see that all these Bitcoin ETF launches are by EOY. It's like the SEC is now cramming them all in before Dec 31st.

Hmm...why the rush now SEC? Something happening the first of the new year? Lol sus

Oh gawd Torque...

You never going to get out of your numerological extremes?  Sometimes you just go too far...

Do you believe that there is something significant for the end of the year or what?  Maybe explain a wee bit for some of us who are  a wee bit less conspiracy minded..

No conspiracy, just that the SEC is now rushing and cramming all the BTC ETF approvals into the last few months of 2021, the same ones they kept denying over and over since 2017 (so punting for 4 years straight) even though absolutely nothing in the bitcoin ecosystem or with regulations has even changed since then.

Nothing to see here JJG, don't worry your oie poie lil selfies, so move along...probably just a coincidence.    

Ok... .I will try not to worry too much about it then...

_{you didn't even bother to look at my post prediction for next year, did ya?}

If you made it in normal font, I probably read it..... and I only comment on parts that I deem worthy of comment at my own discretion..

It's not that I am specifically stalking or following with you, but if you say something that stands out, then surely you may well trigger someone like me to comment.. which I did.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I’m ready brotherens

Though I totally get what this guy is saying AND agree with it with my whole body...

Evidently he's not been around long enough to find out you don't tell the corn what it "MUST" do.

Yeah this whole S2F "self-fulfilling prophecy" thing is getting tedious.

I mean, there's nothing to say that the price action couldn't go something like this below. Would the S2F devotees cry then?

Absolutely.  I think that actually matches some people predictions that are more conservative than PlanB.  Like this one:


I think there is also a significant non-zero possibility that the model breaks to the upside as well.  As in cuts through the 110k line, goes up even higher, and then does not come back down as much as we have seen in past cycles.

I have been predicting that for two years.  Not as a sure fire thing, but with more probability than we have had so far.  And I will gladly eat crow after the next 85% bear.

I doubt that either you and/or Torque are saying much of anything in regards to your criticisms of the stock-to-flow model, cAPSLOCK.  Sure, the model might break to the downside or it might break to the upside or the model might not break, at all.. So fucking what?

Low 60's are boring so not much to say today.

If we heat up and pass 70k people will talk.

Futures expiry
Price dips and then goes sideways
green candles follow

#sidewayshaiku

But i originally posted here to discuss this opinion:



https://twitter.com/JohnLilic/status/1451685101578989571?t=6yL0enGb4ixk83PvG-mBIg

I can draw squiggly lines on a page too.. and I can also describe them in words.. so sure it could play out exactly like that or some variation of that.. or it might not.. seems like a big so what.

We are in between 1972 (4.4%) and 1973 (8.8%) as far as inflation is concerned.
By 1980 yearly inflation was 14%.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp

I always thought that we are repeating the 70ies this decade.

BTW, if it more or less repeats, we would be at 15-20% short term bond yields by about 2028-2029.
Stocks would be devastated, not sure about bitcoin. If bitcoin price stabilizes by then, bonds might become more attractive.
Currently, I plan to switch some money to bonds at that time (2028-2029) if I still care about anything.
Alternatively, we can hyperbitconize, which would be just fine.

That's a strange way of framing our macroeconomic troubles.. to suggest that they are just some repeated pattern from the 1970s.. it's like you are missing nuance and you are missing the significance of an additional 35 to 40 years of irresponsible money supply.. and even suggesting that the whole macro-matter is just going to recover.. like it did in the 80s and 90s...   a kind of dream land..

...and also, it seems that in recent times, the desperation levels of the status quo elite has been stronger in their attacks against communication mechanisms, which also ties into bitcoin being available currently... sure, every time probably seems to contain a lot of uncertainties and even desperate politicians and desperate bankers exploiting the people, but surely there are a lot of very important nuances in how times differ now as compared to what they were like in the 1970s (even considering the roles of banks and the lack of needs that banks seem to have to establish relations and ties to their communities).  If I were listening to you Biodom, I would tentatively (and wrongly) conclude that it's going to all just fix itself.. and that is not really the case, except now we have bitcoin as a kind of escape hatch, for anyone who might be able to recognize and act upon the availability of such hedging mechanism that had not been available to them in prior times.

[cygan]

gm wo folks


https://twitter.com/Tizarrr/status/1452055688650235904

[fillippone]

I doubt that either you and/or Torque are saying much of anything in regards to your criticisms of the stock-to-flow model, cAPSLOCK.  Sure, the model might break to the downside or it might break to the upside or the model might not break, at all.. So fucking what?

Well, let me put my PlanB zealot hat on discussing this.
I disagree when you say the model is not going to break.
I cannot see a state of the world where this model is not breaking.

This model is either going to break on the downside, with the model price being too above the real world. Essentially meaning that bitcoin has failed to appreciate as the best SoV the human kind has ever considered using, beating the only other SoV that retained such a function for the last few millennia: gold.

The other possibility is that the model breaks on the upside: people start factoring future halving and start front-running the model, until it breaks. Now, if it is bitcoin breaking on the upside or US dollar breaking on the downside it will be difficult to assess. But this is the scenario.

I really cannot see bitcoin being considered a reliable SoV and people not frontrunning halving appreciation cycles, meaning the model hold true for more than a few halving.  

This is not my original thinking, but a well known position of PlanB. See my thread, OP Q&A4:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

[OutOfMemory]

holy fuk i'm 2 pages back and i got so wasted tonight i dropped the bike in the middle of th elawnancdi ' m tood rfunk to pick it up !

Heh, i tried to soak the remains of the vaporized weed in gin (43% vol) for three days.
The color of the gin-tonic was interesting, a dark rosè tint.
Even more interesting, the effects. Quite a hammer, THCA and alcohol seem to combine well in this way.
Felt like drinking three times as much, only without the after effects in the morning.