Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714001050]

1714001050

[1714001050]

1714001050

[sirazimuth]

....
It’s only a 4 sec listening,......

Ah, well then, in that case, most younger folk might actually have enough attention span to watch whole thing

....
 ....after that DYOR and make your mind.

bbbut you didn't leave a tic toc link......   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

This one is actually interesting to me.

The whole Maxis vs the world thing does not seem to be fading away.  And it's more complicated than, for example, Mark Cuban thinks.  

I actually ran sound for an old friend last night who is a musician, but also a C-level executive for the Mavericks.  So I imagine he's pretty tight with Cuban, I don't know though, I do not talk much with him about work.  But it was tempting to bring up Mark's recent clash with Pysh and the others on Twitter.  In fact I played drums for him on a short tour from Texas to Wyoming a few years ago, and I talked about Bitcoin at the time.  At that time he was an accountant for the Mavs only... he had not reached the C-Suite yet.  Anyway I digress.  IF I remeber correctly his position on Bitcoin was fairly typical for the average responsible person.  Something along the lines of "That's interesting, but you ought not put all your eggs into a crazy basket like that.  You ought to be saving up for retirement mostly".

Anyway... I think Mark is one of the poster boys for the "Bitcoin Maxis Suck" team right now.  And I think the whole thing is a sort of 3D problem.  Not as simple as he, or someone on our side would make it out.

On one had you have a bunch of assholes going around saying things like "HFSP" mostly because they like to be abrasive.  The way to be art of the "In crowd" is to virtue signal with all kinds of caustic gestures to people who are NOT in the in crowd.

On another hand (this things gonna have several hands lol) you have Bitcoin's "auto immune system".  These people are the gatekeepers for purity.  Though they are related to the above assholes they are also somewhat responsible for drawing the stark line between Bitcoin and all the endless list of scammy shitcoins, and pointing out the difference for those who have ears to hear, so to speak.

Then you have the sort of aspergers crowd that inevitably will be drawn to a pure CS project that is based on exotic math.  Sort of a special subclass of the above.

But finally (perhaps) we have the people that I believe that meme sort of points out.  People like a lot of us, I think.  People like me on that endless van ride from TX to WY and back getting to hear from someone for the 2000th time about how I was going to lose all my money.  And the guy was both smart, and probably extremely right in general. He was, for a while, the CFO of an NBA team (before he was promoted again)! Bitcoin was worse than a penny stock then (If you didn't get it).

But those sorts of conversations have hardened us, as well as weeded out those of us who really DIDN'T see from early on how Bitcoin would change the world.  Leaving a set of people who, though not just getting off on saying things like "NGMI" or "HFSP", but folks who have to be like the guy in the meme to survive.  People who may not have much tolerance for hearing about how lucky they got in the coming years from the same people who lambasted them as they held through multiple 85% draw downs.

I wanted to ask my friend about Cuban, since to some extent I think *he* is the lucky one... sold a useless business (broadcast.com) at the height of the dotcom bubble.  


And now just seems mad theat these "mean internet millennials" are getting rich "by accident and without deserving it" because of stupid internet money that he made fun of for years before trying to "join the scam" by latching onto another billionaire who is also kind of full of shit (youknowwho) .

But i figure conversations like that with my buddy would end up with me looking like one of those assholes up there... So instead we just did the "Hows it goin?  Haven't seen you in a while!"  "Great!  You still working for the hospital" sort of conversation instead.

And... in the end, I couldn't give a shit what other people think.  I *was* lucky to be here, yes.  But it was NOT luck that kept me here for the last 10+ years.

(Edit- I realize I might be getting the reputation of telling tall tales... Met Robert Moog, friends with a C level guy on the Mavs.  But all true (or is it? lol), and I guess it's kind of bad for my opsec... but I feel like I have trashed that ages ago at this point...)

[AlcoHoDL]

Some Sunday Bitcoin one liners:

-- Don't try to predict. Try to buy instead.
-- Reliable quantitative Bitcoin price predictors do not and cannot exist.
-- The White Paper is the best qualitative Bitcoin price predictor: "It's going up forever, Laura!"
-- Never act on spot price. Always average out. The longer the horizon, the better.
-- Delta_Halving = 4 years. Use your brain.
-- Trading = gambling = rolling a dice. HoDLing = math & science.
-- Bitcoin eliminates middlemen. Don't put someone between you and your coins by loaning them out.
-- Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto.
-- HoDL.

[JimboToronto]

Good morn Bitcoinland.
Sixty grand one forty six
(Bitcoinaverage).

Consolidating
Before the next rally up...
It's still October.

Sixty grand ain't bad
As an area to set
A new starting point.

So go Bitcoin go
Onward and upward
To new all-time highs.

[cAPSLOCK]

Big mac?

Royale with cheese.

Mmmm!  That -IS- a tasty burger!

[El duderino_]

Keep us above 60

Thx in advance

Otherwise I’m forced to start buying little dips…

Meh, both situations are good

[cAPSLOCK]

holy fuk i'm 2 pages back and i got so wasted tonight i dropped the bike in the middle of th elawnancdi ' m tood rfunk to pick it up !

Pit pat piffy wing wong wang!

(ahh.. I also just figured out what the end of this post meant...  I hope you are OK!  And yeah... some ibuprofen might be in order?)

[cAPSLOCK]

I doubt that either you and/or Torque are saying much of anything in regards to your criticisms of the stock-to-flow model, cAPSLOCK.  Sure, the model might break to the downside or it might break to the upside or the model might not break, at all.. So fucking what?

Well, let me put my PlanB zealot hat on discussing this.
I disagree when you say the model is not going to break.
I cannot see a state of the world where this model is not breaking.

This model is either going to break on the downside, with the model price being too above the real world. Essentially meaning that bitcoin has failed to appreciate as the best SoV the human kind has ever considered using, beating the only other SoV that retained such a function for the last few millennia: gold.

The other possibility is that the model breaks on the upside: people start factoring future halving and start front-running the model, until it breaks. Now, if it is bitcoin breaking on the upside or US dollar breaking on the downside it will be difficult to assess. But this is the scenario.

I really cannot see bitcoin being considered a reliable SoV and people not frontrunning halving appreciation cycles, meaning the model hold true for more than a few halving. 

This is not my original thinking, but a well known position of PlanB. See my thread, OP Q&A4:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Bingo.

In my opinion the question is not whether it breaks to the upside or the downside, but rather will bitcoin succeed (spoiler: yes).  (edit - to explain this since it's a couple levels deep... if bitcoin fails, the model breaks... but that is also true if bitcoin continues to succeed in my opinion.  Because OTHER models are going to overtake this very pure S2F calculation.  Worldwide FOMO, for example could arguably break the model.  And is inevitable if Bitcoin continues to succeed. The scary bit IMHO is if that same FOMO might break Bitcoin...  but that's another topic.)

The other question is will this be the cycle on which it breaks, or will it be the next one (or even later??  ehhh... I doubt that though).

But my oft repeated position is it breaks, and it breaks to the upside.  And PlanB will go down in history as the person that figured out the natural progression of bitcoin's value until human nature pulverized his model.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

buddy is letting us down

be prepared to buy the dip

[JayJuanGee]

Hey buddy How about a nice 10k green candle tonight crest us over 70k

Can’t sleep, looking @ charts & thinking, hmmmmm. This dip kinda sucks, I’d love to see the pump start up again, $70,000 by Halloween would be fine for me.

I appreciate this response, LFC... it seems to me that if we had a bit of change in the BTC price momentum to at  least pause the UP and maybe go sideways and maybe go down, the more likely short term spike would be down, if any.. not sure.. but getting a spike to the upside would take a bit of time to play out.. even a few days to start to get the momentum to change, and then the spike, if it were to come... Of course, we are getting a bit more down since your two posts (above)... ... so even could take a bit to get a spike up.. hate to say it.. and not even really saying that much more down is "needed" even if we are getting some ongoing short term downity pressures in the past few days.. .. ATH was only $67,017 was only 4 days ago, even if it may well be seeming like a "long time" when we are in a process of failing/refusing to resume up... .. I am still bias towards staying in noman's zone, and I doubt that the noman zone thesis is negated merely by correcting below $55k.. but would get put into to question somewhat - even if there were to persist some decent levels of lacking of resistance between $55k and $80k - that is currently being negated.. in the short-term.

I doubt that either you and/or Torque are saying much of anything in regards to your criticisms of the stock-to-flow model, cAPSLOCK.  Sure, the model might break to the downside or it might break to the upside or the model might not break, at all.. So fucking what?

Well, let me put my PlanB zealot hat on discussing this.
I disagree when you say the model is not going to break.
I cannot see a state of the world where this model is not breaking.

I appreciate that you and I have gone back and forth in our discussion of the stock2F model, so my comments might not really be so much directed at correcting anything that you say, but attempting to flesh out some of my thoughts in this area - in terms of whether maybe I had been misunderstood in what I was attempting to say to both Torque and cAPSLOCK....  and I am not even really disagreeing in great detail with either Torque or cAPSLOCK - but sometimes, it just seems to me that ideas need to be fleshed out a wee bit more, especially when attempting to address something that is so attempting to be data driven like the S2F model.

Again, I may just be quibbling with the word "broke" too.. because we could either proclaim that the whole model is broken, or we can just proclaim that the price ends up breaking to the upside of the model or to downside of the model.. and of course, with any good scientific model (or scientist), PlanB already attempts to assert that the future BTC price can vary quite a bit from the parameters of the lines (such as his suggestion that the model suggests an average BTC price of $100k-ish for this 4-year cycle), and still end up NOT being broken... just ends up being a wee bit off if the average ends up being $90k or $110k for example.. still within very acceptable parameters, without actually breaking the model... how far we might be able to go in such deviation from the mean (or the expectations) would be other questions that could be asked..

Of course, we already know that short-term price spikes can go all over the place for short periods of time, and those price spikes could become problematic if they last for extended periods of time, but still might not end up breaking the model if they end up bouncing back after being pushed to extremes for a period of time beyond what the model would have expected to have been within the realms of possible happenings.

So, for example, as you seem to be suggesting, I have been ongoingly reluctant to accept too many conditions in which the model becomes broken, and I have frequently asserted that the S2F model is currently the best model that we have, and sure we can attempt to account for a few variables (or to emphasize) some aspects that the model does not seem to capture in order to explain short/medium/long term price moves (I consider those other supplemental models as four-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles), so instead of conceding that the model would be broken under certain extreme factual scenarios, I have frequently proclaimed that the newly acquired data would merely cause the curve to shift (up down or whatever) based on new facts.

This model is either going to break on the downside, with the model price being too above the real world. Essentially meaning that bitcoin has failed to appreciate as the best SoV the human kind has ever considered using, beating the only other SoV that retained such a function for the last few millennia: gold.

 You have said nothing disagreeable here, fillippone.

 

Actually, I will reiterate that there is surely something that is already broken about the S2F model in that we already know that it wrongly draws parallels to the mining of new gold, and there are no new bitcoin because we already know that they run out and we know exactly when the run out.. so PlanB puts the issuance of bitcoin as a parallel to new supply.. when it is already exactly known as an issuance rather than a creation... so yeah.. there is something that is already broaken about thinking about the matter in terms of actual new supply rather than an issuance of already known supply .. ... so in that sense, I agree with you that the model works for now..

The other possibility is that the model breaks on the upside: people start factoring future halving and start front-running the model, until it breaks. Now, if it is bitcoin breaking on the upside or US dollar breaking on the downside it will be difficult to assess. But this is the scenario.

The model would be pretty good if the odds are similar of it playing out wrong/broken to either the downside or the upside, no?

I really cannot see bitcoin being considered a reliable SoV and people not frontrunning halving appreciation cycles, meaning the model hold true for more than a few halving.

Surely part of the already known aspect of the shrinking new "issuance," and for sure the new issuance becomes a smaller and smaller portion of the already existing supply.....yes exactly a knows "problem" and even the shrinking to zero in 2140 is a known problem.. but surely there is a kind of presumption that the "problem" of the shrinking new issuance of supply id not going to take until 2140 to be felt.. like you already mentioned that a few more halvenings and it may well start to become obviously a factor that messes up a key underlying component of the S2F model.
 

This is not my original thinking, but a well known position of PlanB. See my thread, OP Q&A4:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

ditto

[cAPSLOCK]

I appreciate that you and I have gone back and forth in our discussion of the stock2F model, so my comments might not really be so much directed at correcting anything that you say, but attempting to flesh out some of my thoughts in this area - in terms of whether maybe I had been misunderstood in what I was attempting to say to both Torque and cAPSLOCK....  and I am not even really disagreeing in great detail with either Torque or cAPSLOCK - but sometimes, it just seems to me that ideas need to be fleshed out a wee bit more, especially when attempting to address something that is so attempting to be data driven like the S2F model.

I do not think my input on this really is very detailed or scientific. But I am reacting on a gut level to what I see out there as either an almost religious reverence for the model, or a complete rejection of it.

I think that kind of black and white thinking is common, and a place people make mistakes.  I think PlanB himself is very clear that his model will most likely break.  I am listening to his interview with Laura Shin (I wish she did not cause me such discomfort... she's the absolute representative example of the herd).

And they are talking about whether or not this cycle could be the supercycle and his position is it's still too early.  And to be honest I agree with him.  I think the chance that THIS is the cycle is lower than the chance that it is not.

But what I am saying is IT WILL eventually happen.  If not this cycle, then one of the next.  Simply because of the macro environment (gold USD inflation central banks etc) as well as the fact that the halvings are causing the reward to become exponentially smaller...

It really is the exponential aspect of this that is so interesting.  Bitcoin is the PARABOLIC asset.  Everything about it.the math behind it is astronomical, and every thing about the way bitcoin grows is parabolic.

Anyway.  I think PlanB is probably right that this halving will also have a draw down.  But I would also be kind of surprised if it is the same sort of 80+% thing we have seen in the past.

I also think there could be a time coming when OUR crop of "OG"s are going to be tempted to move out "at the top" and then be surprised to learn that the pullback we saw was shallower than we have figured and we lose our stake somewhat.  I think a max pain scenario for Bitcoin OGs is still on the horizon.

Anyway... my thoughts are all over the place on this stuff.

[LoyceV]

Keep us above 60
~
Otherwise I’m forced to start buying little dips…

Good idea, I like it! I created a buy order at €60, just for the hell of it
Now I wait for a fat finger flash crash.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

[Copetech]

LMAO

Crazy night eh? I feel you as I've been there WAY too many times!
Did you check on your bike yet? Hopefully no lasting scars there.

Spend the day hydrating and it'll all be funny stories by the end of the week.

[JayJuanGee]

This one is actually interesting to me.

The whole Maxis vs the world thing does not seem to be fading away.  And it's more complicated than, for example, Mark Cuban thinks.  

I actually ran sound for an old friend last night who is a musician, but also a C-level executive for the Mavericks.  So I imagine he's pretty tight with Cuban, I don't know though, I do not talk much with him about work.  But it was tempting to bring up Mark's recent clash with Pysh and the others on Twitter.  In fact I played drums for him on a short tour from Texas to Wyoming a few years ago, and I talked about Bitcoin at the time.  At that time he was an accountant for the Mavs only... he had not reached the C-Suite yet.  Anyway I digress.  IF I remeber correctly his position on Bitcoin was fairly typical for the average responsible person.  Something along the lines of "That's interesting, but you ought not put all your eggs into a crazy basket like that.  You ought to be saving up for retirement mostly".

Anyway... I think Mark is one of the poster boys for the "Bitcoin Maxis Suck" team right now.  And I think the whole thing is a sort of 3D problem.  Not as simple as he, or someone on our side would make it out.

On one had you have a bunch of assholes going around saying things like "HFSP" mostly because they like to be abrasive.  The way to be art of the "In crowd" is to virtue signal with all kinds of caustic gestures to people who are NOT in the in crowd.

On another hand (this things gonna have several hands lol) you have Bitcoin's "auto immune system".  These people are the gatekeepers for purity.  Though they are related to the above assholes they are also somewhat responsible for drawing the stark line between Bitcoin and all the endless list of scammy shitcoins, and pointing out the difference for those who have ears to hear, so to speak.

Then you have the sort of aspergers crowd that inevitably will be drawn to a pure CS project that is based on exotic math.  Sort of a special subclass of the above.

But finally (perhaps) we have the people that I believe that meme sort of points out.  People like a lot of us, I think.  People like me on that endless van ride from TX to WY and back getting to hear from someone for the 2000th time about how I was going to lose all my money.  And the guy was both smart, and probably extremely right in general. He was, for a while, the CFO of an NBA team (before he was promoted again)! Bitcoin was worse than a penny stock then (If you didn't get it).

But those sorts of conversations have hardened us, as well as weeded out those of us who really DIDN'T see from early on how Bitcoin would change the world.  Leaving a set of people who, though not just getting off on saying things like "NGMI" or "HFSP", but folks who have to be like the guy in the meme to survive.  People who may not have much tolerance for hearing about how lucky they got in the coming years from the same people who lambasted them as they held through multiple 85% draw downs.

I wanted to ask my friend about Cuban, since to some extent I think *he* is the lucky one... sold a useless business (broadcast.com) at the height of the dotcom bubble.  


And now just seems mad theat these "mean internet millennials" are getting rich "by accident and without deserving it" because of stupid internet money that he made fun of for years before trying to "join the scam" by latching onto another billionaire who is also kind of full of shit (youknowwho) .

But i figure conversations like that with my buddy would end up with me looking like one of those assholes up there... So instead we just did the "Hows it goin?  Haven't seen you in a while!"  "Great!  You still working for the hospital" sort of conversation instead.

And... in the end, I couldn't give a shit what other people think.  I *was* lucky to be here, yes.  But it was NOT luck that kept me here for the last 10+ years.

(Edit- I realize I might be getting the reputation of telling tall tales... Met Robert Moog, friends with a C level guy on the Mavs.  But all true (or is it? lol), and I guess it's kind of bad for my opsec... but I feel like I have trashed that ages ago at this point...)

Well gosh cAPSLOCK, we do have to measure the extent to which any potential audience might be receptive to talking about various kinds of discussions of what makes bitcoin a special investment, and if you might not be inclined to bring up the topic (largely because you have already been down some aspect of that road), and if they are not wanting to talk about those kinds of matters, then surely there might not be any kind of mutual interest in the topic.  There are likely a decent number of status quo well-to-do folks who are ongoingly feeling that they have a sufficient amount of extra cashflow that it does not really matter to them.  They cannot really see their properties or equities going down, so they feel that they are sufficiently hedged.. and sure they might not feel comfortable with nearly everything at retail (especially bigger ticket items) seeming to have price doubling issues.. but yeah, that may well be transitory - and just like Biodom mentioned, there are a lot of people (including Biodom his lil selfie) who believe that we are going through a time that is not really very much different from the 70s... we just have to get through it... and the rich will continue to fair well (at least that is what they believe).. and many of the costs of the various struggles are going to be borne by poorer folks in a variety of scattered ways.. which has historically been allowed to happen..

Oh by the way, this time around, the USA (dollar) is able to get away with causing the poor of the whole world to bear the costs of the money printing (since the dollar is way more dominant these days) rather than in the 70s, we were living in a more nationalized dollar situation..   so of course, having the whole world bear the irresponsibilities monetary policies behind the dollar does provide way more runway.. but a lot of the is irresponsibility is going to be recognized and appreciated higher and higher up the socio-economic ladder.. and surely the status quo rich (including those in decently great status quo positions of cashflow) might not appreciate the bottom up empowerment that bitcoin provides (and that those status quo elite would benefit more from getting in early, too.. rather than waiting another cycle or two.. or however long it takes before it starts to sink in their status quo elite noggens).

One more by the way, is that I have a good friend from childhood who has done really well for himself in terms of his business and his investment into a decent number of properties... My historical conversations with him seem similar to the kinds of conversations that you have been having with your exec friends.. .. they do not see it.. their investments are doing well.. their cashflow is way more than they need.. and it is nearly like talking to a brick wall in terms of broaching the investment thesis of bitcoin topic with them... you can give the best of arguments and presentations, and they just do not see bitcoin as any kind of meaningful hedge.. even putting something as low as 1% into bitcoin.. from their point of view, it would be better to buy property or equities with that 1%.. rather than screwing around with something so faddish (already had a big run) like bitcoin... that's part of the reason why we still have only about 1% of the world invested in bitcoin and even in the most bitcoin savey of areas (tech maybe?) in the USA, you are still likely only in the 5% arena, at best (not referring to the hoarders like Saylor who get it.. they do not take up a large percentage of the population even if they are engaged in ongoing hoarding of bitcoin practices).

But my oft repeated position is it breaks, and it breaks to the upside.  And PlanB will go down in history as the person that figured out the natural progression of bitcoin's value until human nature pulverized his model.

He's ONLY saying similar things as what others had said before him.

He only put it in terms of data points and talking points on a model (he was already familiar with analyzing assets through stock to flow before learning about bitcoin, so he ended up spending a decent amount of time plugging bitcoin into a model that he already knew)..

So, sure he likely is going to go down in history.. so I do not really have any problems with that, but he still does not seem to be saying anything much different from many folks before him, except that he put it in a perhaps better presentable package...in which many of us can learn more than we previous knew from his better presentable package.

[cAPSLOCK]

Well gosh cAPSLOCK, we do have to measure the extent to which any potential audience might be receptive to talking about various kinds of discussions of what makes bitcoin a special investment, and if you might not be inclined to bring up the topic (largely because you have already been down some aspect of that road), and if they are not wanting to talk about those kinds of matters, then surely there might not be any kind of mutual interest in the topic.  There are likely a decent number of status quo well-to-do folks who are ongoingly feeling that they have a sufficient amount of extra cashflow that it does not really matter to them.  They cannot really see their properties or equities going down, so they feel that they are sufficiently hedged.. and sure they might not feel comfortable with nearly everything at retail (especially bigger ticket items) seeming to have price doubling issues.. but yeah, that may well be transitory - and just like Biodom mentioned, there are a lot of people (including Biodom his lil selfie) who believe that we are going through a time that is not really very much different from the 70s... we just have to get through it... and the rich will continue to fair well (at least that is what they believe).. and many of the costs of the various struggles are going to be borne by poorer folks in a variety of scattered ways.. which has historically been allowed to happen..

Oh by the way, this time around, the USA (dollar) is able to get away with causing the poor of the whole world to bear the costs of the money printing (since the dollar is way more dominant these days) rather than in the 70s, we were living in a more nationalized dollar situation..   so of course, having the whole world bear the irresponsibilities monetary policies behind the dollar does provide way more runway.. but a lot of the is irresponsibility is going to be recognized and appreciated higher and higher up the socio-economic ladder.. and surely the status quo rich (including those in decently great status quo positions of cashflow) might not appreciate the bottom up empowerment that bitcoin provides (and that those status quo elite would benefit more from getting in early, too.. rather than waiting another cycle or two.. or however long it takes before it starts to sink in their status quo elite noggens).

One more by the way, is that I have a good friend from childhood who has done really well for himself in terms of his business and his investment into a decent number of properties... My historical conversations with him seem similar to the kinds of conversations that you have been having with your exec friends.. .. they do not see it.. their investments are doing well.. their cashflow is way more than they need.. and it is nearly like talking to a brick wall in terms of broaching the investment thesis of bitcoin topic with them... you can give the best of arguments and presentations, and they just do not see bitcoin as any kind of meaningful hedge.. even putting something as low as 1% into bitcoin.. from their point of view, it would be better to buy property or equities with that 1%.. rather than screwing around with something so faddish (already had a big run) like bitcoin... that's part of the reason why we still have only about 1% of the world invested in bitcoin and even in the most bitcoin savey of areas (tech maybe?) in the USA, you are still likely only in the 5% arena, at best (not referring to the hoarders like Saylor who get it.. they do not take up a large percentage of the population even if they are engaged in ongoing hoarding of bitcoin practices).

Yeah.  I wanted to talk about Cuban more than Bitcoin, because he seems to be SO INCREDIBLY wrong on the topic.  And kind of embarrassing.  I don't know if you followed the Twitter space, or the dick measuring stuff that led up to it, but it was embarrassing in my opinion.  Cuban was acting like a child.  And of course the bitcoin maxis were swarming around him like piranhas being assholes.  He is right there are plenty of assholes in bitcoin.  But he's wrong about almost everything he says about Bitcoin.  And the whole "How much Bitcoin do you own, Preston... let's compare with how much I own" thing just reeks of a big man with a little pecker.

So I was avoiding THAT conversation with my friend who is an employee of his, as well as someone who probably agrees with Cuban's position on BTC both because hes a standard finance guy as well as someone who has done very well with a traditional sort of approach to money.  My firned is also an iconoclast and would probably like Doge based on that alone, similarly to Musk.

I just think the conversation would go nowhere...  Or perhaps even to somewhere bad.  My buddy will have made a good deal of money the usual way... good job, right decisions, with a dash of skinflint thrown in.

And I will be well off because I made a retarded bet on magical internet money and got spectacularly lucky despite having no idea what I am doing and being in the right place at the right time in spite of my mistakes.

What frustrates me is Cuban is most literally a beneficiary of the above luck equation (though I imagine to hold on to what he gained took some good decisions) whereas from MY perspective my decisions have been VERY WELL researched, and understood.  I just don't see the argument of who was struck by blind luck to be productive.