Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

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[Farmer Bill]

Rainy day - idly looking at world news.

Had to laugh at news coming from Glasgow where the COP 26 Climate Convention is being held.

A fleet of 200+ luxury EVs has been put at the disposal of the delegates.

But there is a problem there are too few charging points for the vehicles in the city.

So some diesel generators have been hired for the task.

You could not fucking make it up.

In more pertinent Scottish news the wee dip is not quite over yet.

Wee dip?

I believe Scots call their First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon "Wee Nippy"

[JayJuanGee]

How does it feel to be #homo-raped hard by a thick, veiny, green red dildo?

Now I know.

Only joking, this is ant stuff, noise, jitter. Want to see the real trend? Average out. 52-/208-week MA. Smooth as silk, cool as air. Such dips don't even register.

HoDL.

Hahahaha

On this https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd  website.. I keep my EMA/MA SETTINGS "indicator parameters" set with 26, 52, 104 and 208... so of course those would be showing the weekly averages (which also accounts for volume) for 6 months, 1 year,  2 years, and 4 years with different color lines (light blue, orange, pink-ish and dark blue respectively)...

Currently, on the weekly, those four lines show about:

26 - $44,595  (moving sideways-ish)

52 - $42k-ish  (moving Up)

104 - $25,786 (moving Up)

208 - $17k-ish (moving Up)

Of course, in the shorter timeframes, the lower averages change directions a lot easier and also are breached a lot easier than the higher averages, and since all of those are lagging indicators (because they are averages of weekly prices and also include trade volume, too), we cannot really determine BTC price direction from them exactly.. but we can get some sense of cushion (BTC price bottoms on various timelines) regarding how far up we happen to be from the current location (and the historical locations) of those various moving averages.

In about the last 8 minutes of PlanB's interview with Preston Pysch, he mentioned that his new floor model is an advanced way of attempting to measure floor - beyond the 200 week moving average, so in that sense PlanB is saying that his floor model gives more accurate short term measures specifically connected with BTC (whereas the 200-week moving average is vaguer and safer - because ongoingly bitcoin prices tend to be way above it on an ongoing basis).    In that portion of the interview, PlanB is a bit elusive about the math bases for his current "floor model," and surely I don't claim to really understand it - even though it may be worth looking into a bit more in order to attempt to possibly get a bit more accurate ideas in regards to shorter-term BTC floor prices.. Personally, I prefer to have some kind of an understanding regarding what I am talking about or considering rather than just rely on someone (such as PlanB) to tell me where the floor is, and in what time frame (even if, purportedly based on maths/sciences)..  blah blah blah.

This was a short lived low volume dip. Nothing to see here.

We should attempt to be realistic, if we can.

Combinations of low volume and high volume can be mixed in there quite frequently.

Of course, high volume is going to tell us that potentially a more meaningful battle is taking place or at least there is some level of seriousness behind the BTC price dynamic "happenings."  I am not going to rule out short-term low volume events because it only tells us what is happening at the moment, but it does not tell us whether the bearwhales are running out of ammo (or their willingness to employ it). 

Many of us know that if we end up witnessing a high volume dip coupled with a high volume reversal, we can gain confidence that the bottom may well be in.. no guarantees that the bottom is in, but the evidence is decently stronger in those kinds of high volume reversals. 

If we do not witness a high volume reversal, then we should continuously retain some skepticism regarding whether the most recent local bottom is "in" or not.. and frequently, if the volume stays relatively low (or at least not high), then we must rely upon getting some distance up the price ladder that would cause us to garner increasing levels of confidence based on cushion.. How much cushion is enough is likely another question.. ?  Frequently 5% to 10% can be helpful, but many times we have to get in supra 15% levels or so above our local bottom before confidence might be assured that such "bottom is in".. I know that peeps are capable of calling the bottom earlier than my supra 15% level is suggesting - and yeah call me a conservative when it comes to presuming the bottom too early.. and even if I start to presume any such bottom.. I become nervous if the cushion gets reached and then we start to fall back within striking distance in that 5% to 10% cushion zone.. which again.. just does not seem enough.. absent some stronger indications, such as a high volume reversal or something like that..

[Farmer Bill]

I knew a devastating crash was coming!

I like your timing and sense of humor plus the fact that you are consistent with your math and science.

M.S. Mathematics - University of North Colorado https://www.unco.edu/  (home of the bears)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[proudhon]

I knew a devastating crash was coming!

I like your timing and sense of humor plus the fact that you are consistent with your math and science.

M.S. Mathematics - University of North Colorado https://www.unco.edu/  (home of the bears)

[OutOfMemory]

At this stage I don't understand why every Tom, Dick, Harry and their dogs aren't buying Bitcoin.

What the fuck are people waiting for?

The news is literally reporting in the UK that inflation will hit 5.4% next year.
I'm of the opinion they always under report this. So real figures will be higher surely.

People are fine with getting 5-6% minimum poorer every year yeah?

Are people under the illusion that the precious money they are shoving into their private pensions somehow won't be affected by this?

What the fuck are people doing?

Gold sucks as has been pointed out.
Property most people can't afford or becomes a fucking headache with renters etc.

Why exactly are people waiting and watching themselves getting poorer?

Still hoping on that "inevitable" lottery win as long as they keep playing?

You know what?
They don't care.
No?
Yes.
Because they are too distracted.
Distracted by everyday life, when they put all their time and effort into earning cash to consume things they really need and/or think thy need.
Distracted by the mass media. Everybody knows the latest memes and what the latest fart of celebrity (put any name here) sounds like.
Distracted by fear (Covid19, war, hostility within their society...) - also driven by the mass media
Like lab mice, which are distracted by running in the wheel.

In the end it's ok for most people if they have someone to blame for their problems. Politics, society groups, foreigners, bankers, maybe even bitcoiners...
Or tell me, how many people do you know who changed their lifes, all by themselves, for the better?
I bet it's a minority, and most other people will hate them when their lifes are miserable enough.

That's us humans.

[JayJuanGee]

... smells like option expiry, just about set your calendar by the bitcoin price these guys are so transparently manipulating now

... picking up pennies in front of the train is never a good idea though

Yo right.
I just mentioned oct21 futures and options expiry a few days ago and already forgot about it myself.
fuck my life  

yeah, bitcoin dumps almost every month because of this shit.

Why so down vroom?  You will likely continue to have a copter job in the coming months.. and a lot of employment.  No need to be looking at glass half full matters...

In other words, seems like a BIG "so what" to me.

Let them do what they are going to do.  It's not like they have been able to keep the BTC price down in the longer term, right?

If it was up to the futures/options manipulating dweebs we would still be sub-$10k, and that ship seems to have sailed quite a while ago.. nearly a year ago, if I recall.. ... and then they had another chance to try to keep the BTC prices below $30k.. and it seems quite likely that they were not too successful regarding that.  Anyone who is reasonable still expecting sub $30k coins in the coming year, or even ever for that matter?

In other words, let them have their little funzies along the way - as if several of us studying this space (and HODLing decent quantities of coins) do not have some decent clues regarding direction.. even if we might not really know for sure (or want to argue about) some of the specifics regarding how far we might be going and how long it might take to get there---- but directionally, many of us seem to have decent clues regarding where we are likely going.

What are the chances of a double top reversal? I need to keep stacking

About as high as the chance of this thing mining a block.

img]https://i1.wp.com/techarx.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Mining-Bitcoin-on-the-Commodore-64-.jpg?resize=696%2C392&ssl=1[/img]

See, I have a funny feeling we gonna come down to $50k and hang around there for just a more few months

Don't be counting your negative nancy chickens too soon podyx.

I have seen you make those kinds of "out of touch" predictions plenty of times, and probably explains why you likely do not have enough coins.

Pobrecito.....


 

Wednesday cruising

Yeah new color… pealing off…

Don't be taking pictures, texting and driving...

 

Pro-tip: Don't never forget that the life of a bitcoiner is scarce.... ... (I feel like I need the assistance of Yoda here)...  

[noorman0]

[BobLawblaw]

ABSOLUTELY ASS-BLASTED WITH THIS DROP TO $58k.

How ever will we survive?

Time to take a nap and sleep on this...

[JayJuanGee]

I'm calling it

Those are some pretty small shorts.. Is that what you mean?

I SOLD 1% of my btc to pay my crypto taxes from 2017. First time ever I cashed out for fiat. Feeling like a monster now

Accepting your factual representations, 1% does not seem to me to be a very BIG mistake in terms of planning out your cashflow and having to possibly cash out some corn at a time that is anything other than your own choosing.

Let's say for example, you have something like 10 BTC (of course, you do not need to admit nor deny the quantity because I am using this as a kind of way to attempt to concretize aspects of the situation you have mentioned), and so you end up cashing out 0.1BTC (which is currently around $5,900).. If you had decided to resolve your "crypto taxes"** in 2018-ish (or even some time earlier), then you may well have had to cash out your hypothetical $5,900-ish at sub-$10k.. and perhaps even by using something close to a whole bitcoin...  .. anyhow, I guess that part of my point is that when you are dealing with relatively smaller percentages of your total BTC stash, you can see that even being forced to sell now, is not even bad for a person who may well have ONLY been in bitcoin for a wee bit more than 4 years-ish (also considering your forum registration date for my presumption)... .. ...

** By the way, I am not necessarily going to invite any discussion of what good or bad decisions that you may have made in regards to having "crypto" taxes to the extent that you are referring to anything other than bitcoin.. because going into those kinds of details would likely take us off-topic into a possible slippery-slope quagmire of irrelevance (and brain clutterening).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[proudhon]

Oh yeah, a new ATH is just around the corner /s

[bitcoinPsycho]

Oh yeah, a new ATH is just around the corner /s

Proudhon see the light

[JayJuanGee]

People say first top in April at 65k and afterwards we had a dogecoin rally. Now we had 67k and a shiba rally.

But looking at the data, we are far away from a 2nd top.

If you happen to believe any of that crap you are describing, you come off as distracted by shadows on a cave wall UnDerDoG81...

At this stage I don't understand why every Tom, Dick, Harry and their dogs aren't buying Bitcoin.

What the fuck are people waiting for?

The news is literally reporting in the UK that inflation will hit 5.4% next year.
I'm of the opinion they always under report this. So real figures will be higher surely.

People are fine with getting 5-6% minimum poorer every year yeah?

Are people under the illusion that the precious money they are shoving into their private pensions somehow won't be affected by this?

What the fuck are people doing?

Gold sucks as has been pointed out.
Property most people can't afford or becomes a fucking headache with renters etc.

Why exactly are people waiting and watching themselves getting poorer?

Still hoping on that "inevitable" lottery win as long as they keep playing?

You know what?
They don't care.
No?
Yes.
Because they are too distracted.
Distracted by everyday life, when they put all their time and effort into earning cash to consume things they really need and/or think thy need.
Distracted by the mass media. Everybody knows the latest memes and what the latest fart of celebrity (put any name here) sounds like.
Distracted by fear (Covid19, war, hostility within their society...) - also driven by the mass media
Like lab mice, which are distracted by running in the wheel.

In the end it's ok for most people if they have someone to blame for their problems. Politics, society groups, foreigners, bankers, maybe even bitcoiners...
Or tell me, how many people do you know who changed their lifes, all by themselves, for the better?
I bet it's a minority, and most other people will hate them when their lifes are miserable enough.

That's us humans.

I get a sense that the vast majority of people believe that they are doing their best based on the information that they have available to them.. even if they can look at their own historical performance and see that it could have been better... they still believe that they did the best that they could have based on the information that they had at the time that they made the various decisions to not invest in themselves adequately, whether that be bitcoin or some other kinds of investments. 

Actually, in retrospect, I can look at my own life prior to bitcoin, and I had thought that I had done pretty decently with around an average of a 5.5% annual return for 25 years or so prior to getting into bitcoin.. I had built a pretty decent nest egg.. but surely I could not really appreciate that all that I had done had mostly ONLY been keeping up with inflation, and probably I would have really gotten screwed if I had not found bitcoin.. and surely as I had already admitted that in large part, I found bitcoin in late 2013 because I was trying to find something like gold.. but I did not really like gold (fees, centralization and even costs of having to hold and verify yourself if you were to attempt to hold the physical)... so anyhow, again just feeling that I got lucky in terms of finding bitcoin and thereafter really having decent chances of actually beating inflation and getting into a more meaningful and significant fuck you status rather than what would have likely been a fuck you status that would have been annually eroded in much greater ways than realizable on the surface for many (if not most) normies - which I consider myself to largely be a normie who got lucky...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Oh yeah, a new ATH is just around the corner /s

Don't think you zoomed in enough. If you zoomed in a bit further you could have drawn a line that would take us to zero dollars in 2 hours.

Congratulations on your buffoonery though.

[5thFear]

I'm calling it

It is one juicy azz.. yummmy


It is hotter then Shiba Inu right now... or may b not

[BitcoinBunny]

I'm calling it

It is one juicy azz.. yummmy


It is hotter then Shiba Inu right now... or may b not

The difference is that people who hold BTC can / will actually afford to have a go on that ass whereas the Shiba Inu holders will be left holding a billion tokens that will do jack shit once the hype is over. Just like the older dog.