Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714042514]

1714042514

[1714042514]

1714042514

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DaRude]

So, CSW taking the stand today in Florida.

What's the over/under on him being charged with contempt within the first two hours of him being on the stand?

*sigh*

My hope for that sort of thing is fairly low.  I feel like hes going to get away with very little bad happening to him at all.

Perhaps I am just projecting my fears.

I will be VERY happy to have been wrong.

I think he's playing with fire. All it takes is pissing off a judge once. Then it's all downhill from there.

Nah his lawyers covered that angle by playing the retard card. Now he can get away with anything he says, by claiming it on his autism.

[d_eddie]

Hmm, you may be right @DaRude.

[serveria.com]

Any particular reason transactions are slow for the last couple of days? Mempool filling up?  

Also observing a slight dumperino... coiling up for the face-melting stage? 

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/johalmiles/status/1455920996213473306?s=21

Math and science  

Tasty find, dude!

That particular brand of Twitter math&science places the top at 450k-520k. I could live with it. Even averaging with PlanB's most conservative, old estimate of ~100k, it still checks out at 270k-310k. Not sure about you, but I could still live with that.

Weren't you the guy in 2018 (of course not the only one) who was pissing and moaning about how long that  it might take to get back to $20k and even expressing concerns that we might never get back to $20k?  I am not even blaming you, but I am still wondering how you could convert from pissing and moaning to NOT being excited as fuck that we are 3x higher than the price that you had been pissing and moaning about being potentially unreachable further... so wouldn't anything above $20k be a gift and/or icing on the cake of what your previous considerations had been.  

Again, I am not really blaming you.. but life must be ecstatic as fuck, no?  or is it just an example of how we are never happy even if BTC prices way out perform our expectations?

Let me see if I can rephrase this?  If a guy has pretty damned low expectations like you seemed to have had in 2018-ish when you were going through some levels of disappointment and even resignation that it could take a while to reach richie status.. you HODL through and maybe even add small amounts to your BTC position along with way without really high expectations.  So we have found that one of the advantages of having low expectations in bitcoin is that bitcoin ends up way out performing your expectations, no?

Am I analyzing you too much?  

In other words.. why aren't you ecstatic?  or am I just reading the situation badly?

By the way, we know that nothing is really any kind of given, so whatever top we end up getting, what are you doing?  Are you shaving off along the way, or you have some lump sum withdrawals?  or are you just riding it out?  This question is not just for d_eddie?  What you guys doing?  Part of the bitterness of some of the guys in 2018 was that there was some regrets about their not having had shaved off more on the way to $20k.. but not even that they would have shaved more off, anyhow.

In other words, what is the gratification of having high numbers unless you are planning to shave some off along the way, or alternatively is there just gratification because when the spot price number gets higher, it seems to also drag up the downside potentialities?  Asking for a friend.

[d_eddie]

A quick Q&A with our resident inquirer.

https://twitter.com/johalmiles/status/1455920996213473306?s=21

Math and science  

Tasty find, dude!

That particular brand of Twitter math&science places the top at 450k-520k. I could live with it. Even averaging with PlanB's most conservative, old estimate of ~100k, it still checks out at 270k-310k. Not sure about you, but I could still live with that.

Weren't you the guy in 2018 (of course not the only one) who was pissing and moaning about how long that  it might take to get back to $20k and even expressing concerns that we might never get back to $20k?

I might have moaned about how long it would take, hoping in vain that the bull wasn't over yet. I don't think I expressed concerns that we wouldn't get back though.

 I am not even blaming you, but I am still wondering how you could convert from pissing and moaning to NOT being excited as fuck that we are 3x higher than the price that you had been pissing and moaning about being potentially unreachable further... so wouldn't anything above $20k be a gift and/or icing on the cake of what your previous considerations had been.

Not in the following cycle

Am I analyzing you too much?  

It could be a possible way of expressing the situation, yes.

Part of the bitterness of some of the guys in 2018 was that there was some regrets about their not having had shaved off more on the way to $20k..

That would be called coreck, as someone likes to say.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

So, CSW taking the stand today in Florida.

What's the over/under on him being charged with contempt within the first two hours of him being on the stand?

*sigh*

My hope for that sort of thing is fairly low.  I feel like hes going to get away with very little bad happening to him at all.

Perhaps I am just projecting my fears.

I will be VERY happy to have been wrong.

I think he's playing with fire. All it takes is pissing off a judge once. Then it's all downhill from there.

What I hope is the judge is able to see what the meta game is he's trying to play.  He has made it very clear online. 

It's all part of a long con.  But there are several sub cons going on at the same time. 

Here is what I see as the big story arc:

1. Establish via the court systems that he is SN.
2. Use the courts to try to force the Bitcoin devs to give him control over a list of blocks he claims to own without having to use the private keys.

The courts have been fairly clear that they are not trying to decide whether he is Satoshi or not, I think.  But one possible thing is they could claim he owes billions of dollars worth of BTC to the plaintifs.  And if so I think the plan is to say he's lost the keys to those blocks and the only way he can get the money to pay the plaintif is if the court orders the BTC devs to basically code his access into Bitcoin Core.

That is a thumbnail of the long con.  And it is entirely ridiculous.  BUT the only thing that scares me is BTC has BIG enemies at the nation state level.  Depending on how corrupted our world is, I could imagine a scenario in which the courts were told to do it.  The is far fetched and nearly impossible to imagine.

The lesser con is to convince his faithful of the above plan.  That is what the BSV people are believing is the way at this point.  LAW is going to grant him the access to those blocks, and he is going to crash BTC and buy all the BSV with it and usher in his kingdom.  And they will dump all their BSV that they have collected up over time (?) on them.  Another angle here is they fail to get any traction on their plan to rewrite the BTC client to give him millions of coins, but they have well prepared the failthful to allow him to take those blocks on BSV.  So I think that's the last level fallback.  (Obviously legal claims on BCH will also be made, and probably fare as badly as they will on BTC)

Or perhaps Calvin Ayre is the anti-christ, and CSW is his prophet.  And BSV is the mark of the beast.  A panopticon  of evil.

You think I am joking with that last part... but there are people who believe this line as well, and I think CSW has played into the image with all the red socks etc...   The anti-christ is indeed called "the father of lies".  It kinda fits.

I seriously hope the courts crush him, and we can really start to put this chapter fully in the rear view.

[JayJuanGee]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still sideways... currently $62032USD/$77094CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

Ho freaking hum.

...funny one llama...

You do know the difference between a llama and an alpaca, don't you?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Alpaca

Hm?

Your link seems to justify why to NOT refer to proudhon as an Alpaca.

I was referring to him as a donkey recently too... so I cannot see any downside to mixing it up with that loosed-lipped moose wannabe.

Any particular reason transactions are slow for the last couple of days? Mempool filling up?  

Also observing a slight dumperino... coiling up for the face-melting stage? 

Even if the mempool might be having periods of scattered filling up as shown here:

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC%20(default%20mempool),1w,weight

The block times are not slow.. Currently, for this difficulty period (which has only been in effect for about 4 days.. so less than 1/3 of the whole period) they are about 2-4% faster than average.. at least at the time of my posting this response.

Latest Block:   708197  (3 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   103.8164%  (582 / 560.60 expected, 21.4 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   20082460130830.84                           
Current Difficulty:   21659344833264.85                           
Next Difficulty:   between 22062403353132 and 22491039247481
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.8609% and +3.8399%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 12:58 PM  (+7.8520%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 13, 2021 at 11:37 PM  (in 9d 14h 12m 50s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 14, 2021 at 5:52 AM  (in 9d 20h 27m 48s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 38m 53s and 13d 17h 53m 51s


https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

[Biodom]

https://twitter.com/johalmiles/status/1455920996213473306?s=21

Math and science  

well, it's a "bit" optimistic, but i like it.

That said, what would be a % of WO that would think that 84K wave 2 "top" is IT and would start selling as it would go down a bit down to re-test 65K?
Nerves would be fried remembering 2017, right?

Kind of look forward to this because I know that obnoxious bitboy would surely sell there.
bitboy=Vinny Lindham of 2017
can't stand that loudmouth (both of them, actually)..

[BitcoinBunny]

Seems like someone took that Shiba Inu, dragged it through a rainforest and left it for dead.

Good.

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

[...]

Merited, mainly for the style of writing. I just love to read you, Jay. Even if it takes me forever, sometimes...

[AlcoHoDL]

https://twitter.com/johalmiles/status/1455920996213473306?s=21

Math and science   

That's nice, but the reference to Deepak Chopra spoiled it all...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/johalmiles/status/1455920996213473306?s=21

Math and science  

well, it's a "bit" optimistic, but i like it.

That said, what would be a % of WO that would think that 84K wave 2 "top" is IT and would start selling as it would go down a bit down to re-test 65K?
Nerves would be fried remembering 2017, right?

Kind of look forward to this because I know that obnoxious bitboy would surely sell there.
bitboy=Vinny Lindham of 2017
can't stand that loudmouth (both of them, actually)..

It’s less optimistic as Proudhon version is….
Both versions are confirmed by math and science I have heard

[kellrobinson]

Take a quadratic regression of time as a function of bitcoin’s daily closing price since July 7, 2010 (Mt Gox and Bitstamp concatenated):



Solve the quadratic and invert the axes, putting yourself back in the time domain:



Divide by 2.5; call this bitcoin’s historic price floor:



Manipulate the price floor to fit the halving cycles by superposing a cyclical function on the monotonic trend:



The yellow trace extrapolates an ad hoc curve-fitting of the halving cycles.

[xhomerx10]

I couldn't resist buying this one.  https://www.tradera.com/item/302531/506026473/ikea-bordslampa-arrie-vit?utm_source=wishlist-reminder&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=transactional_wishlist-reminder&utm_nooverride=1

  That's pretty f*%$in' lit, Arrie.  

 It's a lamp named "Arrie".  What a tough crowd!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

Explanation

 Thanks ChartBuddy old pal.  I knew you'd get it.