A quick Q&A with our resident inquirer.
There is a slogan like that.
Inquiring minds want to know.
AmiNOTrite?
Tasty find, dude!
That particular brand of Twitter math&science places the top at 450k-520k. I could live with it. Even averaging with PlanB's most conservative, old estimate of ~100k, it still checks out at 270k-310k. Not sure about you, but I could still live with that.
Weren't you the guy in 2018 (of course not the only one) who was pissing and moaning about how long that it might take to get back to $20k and even expressing concerns that we might never get back to $20k?
I might have moaned about how long it would take, hoping in vain that the bull wasn't over yet. I don't think I expressed concerns that we wouldn't get back though.
Fair enough. I may have either been misremembering or maybe you were seeming to put the "getting back" at a place that seemed to be quite far into the future.
I am not even blaming you, but I am still wondering how you could convert from pissing and moaning to NOT being excited as fuck that we are 3x higher than the price that you had been pissing and moaning about being potentially unreachable further... so wouldn't anything above $20k be a gift and/or icing on the cake of what your previous considerations had been.
Not in the following cycle
With our investment into bitcoin, should we really realistically expect that we are guaranteed some level of return?
Really, I am still happy to just keep up with various other possible alternatives, so that there is not really any other asset classes that are outperforming bitcoin... and for me, it just seems that on an ongoing basis, we are not only outperforming other assets, but bitcoin has been heads and shoulders above any other assets.
Of course, there are always questions about future performance and even questions about short term performance for guys that get distracted into various shitcoins or various other ways to move around their value.. yet for me, I feel quite great that my bitcoin does not really cause a whole hell of a lot of management.. even though I do spend a lot of time participating in discussions about it and even the employment of my system and tweaking my system from time to time does take some time too.. even though guys like jbreher had lectured me about his employment of a similar system being easy to implement and carry out (and surely I take those kinds of representations with some decently large grains of salt, too).
There are also a lot of ways to both accumulate BTC, to maintain and to liquidate that would be less time consuming than mine (such as just employing pure DCA) so maybe I am trying to accomplish some other personal objectives through some of my playing around with bitcoin and the ways that I choose to implement some additional strategies to both make my system more complex but also provide me with a variety of talking points regarding some of my experimentations and learnings along the way - hopefully I am learning more than I am forgetting... hahahahaha
Am I analyzing you too much?
It could be a possible way of expressing the situation, yes.
Overall, you seem to be pretty good about not taking matters too personally, and surely since we are participating in a public thread there may well be several points that come up that are not even meant to be on any kind of personal level, just whatever you had chosen to post (whether now or previously) raises some questions or concerns (at least for this cat)...
I frequently get uncomfortable too when I am being analyzed in various ways, and probably it becomes more uncomfortable when it seems that the analyzer is either being unfair, getting things wrong or even raising some inconvenient points.
By the way, that reminds me of some of the posters here (not even referring to you) and even some bitcoiners who I have heard in the podcasting space who sometimes describe their own lil selfies as having such strong hands all the way through 2014, 2015, 2016 and even at various subsequent points, and there is a decent amount of reframing of history that is going on that even seems to contradict their own actions. So for example, they describe their lil selfies as so damned brave during various BTC price down turns and assign so much credit to their own knowing that the BTC price would bounce back and have subsequent exponential spurts and they were something like "all seeing" during those down periods, but not even their portfolios or their actions reflect their levels of concerned such as 2015, there were not too many guys backing up their trucks and stocking up on mid $200 bitcoin (and I surely don't claim to be buying hands over fists either), even though their description of the situation should have justified their buying in 2015 rather than waiting until 2016 or even 2017 to stock up more with cash/credit that they already had available in 2015... blah blah blah.
Part of my point is that sure, I do get uncomfortable being analyzed, even if sometimes it can be helpful for my sorting out my own thoughts and/or just attempting to better work through a topic that might be uncomfortable for me in various regards, especially how it had been framed by the one that I feel to be overly analyzing me, my actions or my statements-.
Part of the bitterness of some of the guys in 2018 was that there was some regrets about their not having had shaved off more on the way to $20k..
That would be called coreck, as someone likes to say.
hahahahahaha
hindsight can be 2020... and probably no matter what we do in time 1, we can figure out ways to have regrets in time 2 in ways that we could have ended up playing our hands better - but at the same time, we can also realize that we did not really know at time 1, so we may well have already played our hand as good as we could have, but in retrospect, we are being unfair to ourselves in terms of believing that we should have known better, blah blah blah.
Manipulate the price floor to fit the halving cycles by superposing a cyclical function on the monotonic trend:
The yellow trace extrapolates an ad hoc curve-fitting of the halving cycles.
The bottoms of that last chart come off as somewhat conservative, but I suppose that bottoms do tend to be conservative anyhow... but seeing so much sub $100k bottom projection in 2022 and into 2023 causes me less enthusiasm than seeing tops (even though I have been growing more and more fond of bottom analysis in recent years).
I will note that I can still appreciate the overall chart as still being quite bullish if we would thereafter consider that the projection of the yellow line would likely have some flat in 2023 and then perhaps start to slope UPpity in later 2023..and so at some point our bottom projection would thereafter get permanently above $100k... maybe around late 2024? - early 2025-ish?
Poll
