Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Farewell Cardano.

to me it looks like a possible short-influenced play, which is possibly indicative as to where we are in our diminished cycle.
not truly relevant to us, though, which makes it kind of a nuisance rather then important on the balance.
I am a bit more concerned (in the near term) about the latest verbiage coming from India.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

That is a good explanation of the chart-pattern we have been seeing over the last year. The lack of an exponential peak was leading many observers to conclude that this bull run was only in an early stage. However that does not fit the pattern very well.

It would seem logical that, as the market matures (and stock/flow, halving influence is part of that maturity, as well as adoption) the chart patterns will evolve and change. There will still be waves, but they are changing and flattening.

Nice to see you in these here parts Majormax... It's been a while.

You coming to save us from our lil selfies and / or from BTC price extremes?

hahahahaha

Remember your prediction (or would warning be a better word choice?) that we may well not see supra $10k again for years?  March to May 2020 you were striving to let us know about some more down time that king daddy might need... down before up, no?  Maybe even spending some decent amount of time in the $1k to $2k range may have been necessary with this dangerous/volatile asset, no?  Hopefully you did not take your own advices or influence too many innocent peeps to 1) sell too much too early, 2) fail/refuse to buy BTC by waiting for more down or flat or 3) fail/refuse to adequately and sufficiently prepare for up.

Good one, Billy.

It's like a fantasy post that shows your dreams regarding what you wished reality to be. Your BTC predicting track record does not seem too good, especially considering the various proclamations that you have made since coming to the forum.. None have come true, right?

It seems that I recall seeing something like that in the past.  

Who are you quoting?

It's reminiscent of this:

“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Fair enough.. yet.. aren't you citing one unsourced message with another, or am I missing something (which would not be new, to say the least).

[Biodom]

@JJG

jeez...asking for a source for an extended passage in the age of google, etc. Really? With your typical OCD-like attention to details and incessant quotations?

Almost as soon as I 'declared' you a humanoid, you put me back in a "they pull me back in" situation.
People typically don't want to convince anyone that they are people by being prone to something contradictory to their displayed "ego".
Bad upgrade?
Sad.

[JayJuanGee]

I think that bitcoin cycles are already largely diminished, therefore the price dynamics will follow a random trajectory with a trend up, but we are not going to get an average of 200% per year anymore (maybe 50-100%).

I, too, a few months back suggested that the halvings are getting less and less relevant. Of course I didn't have this insight myself - it's something I read during the 2017 bull run. I got picked by a few fellow WOers, and there was a little discussion - quite civilized actually, no flame wars. After all that, however, I'm still not sure how "relevant" the last halving is going to be.

Some seem to think this bull is over, and we won't go parabolic this time. Could be, yes. But I think we should see at least a few indicators (RSI for one) point to overbought territory before the fat lady sings.

Can you edumacate yours truly, and perhaps some others in dees here parts regarding how you might consider RSI to be relevant to dee honey badger?

Maybe you could paint some potential scenarios or something?  

OK, some edumacatening.

I don't consider RSI to be terribly relevant to the honey badger herself, but it is a decent descriptor of buyer vs. seller behavior. Such behavior could indeed be considered relevant to the least resistance price trajectory for honey badger like creatures - although they are known not to give a fuck (or a ratt's ass, as someone used to say).

I'm not proposing new models or trying to improve old ones - but I can offer a rephrasening.

Even if we don't go parabolic before this bull ends - so, no blow off top, no breathtaking 4x-5x - I think we are not done yet. If we were, we would at least see an excess of eager buyers chopping wood and putting it on the fire that inflates the balloon. So the RSI should go up - meaning too many buyers too quick - if the bull is really done with. RSI is nowhere near alartmingly high levels. So let's wait the end of this month and let's see what happens after options expiry, Thanksgiving, and Black Friday.

Since I don't really feel higher levels of being edumacated prior to your postening, I will give you an E for edumacating efforts and leave it at that.

By the way, I do accept that each 4-year fractal could end up playing out differently than previous 4-year fractals, so for sure, if we might not consider our 7-month-ish run from $10k-ish to $65k-ish to have had been too much too fast, so then our May/June/July correction that ended up adding up to 56% might have been enough of  steam removal to allow for continued UPpity - and sure we mayor may not be able to get another 4-5x out of this bad boy for this particular cycle or this particular UPpity run - to the extent that 4 year fractals still exist - and surely I am of the sense that we cannot proclaim the early death of the 4-year fractal until we actually see it dead.... and sufficiently dead to be sincerely dead as pointed out by a credible coroner.

Furthermore, each of us know that there is no "must" or "have to do" in terms of where bitcoin goes in this cycle, and we have experienced similar kinds of trepidations (unknowingness) in the past in regards to how much is the price going to go UP and when is the UP going to be over.  So even if we might concede that something like 16x BTC price appreciation has already happened for this cycle (from $4,200 to $69k), we could also recognize that the amount of BTC price appreciation would surely appear a dwarf as compared with our 2013 cycle that was more than 100x and our 2017 cycle that was at least 75x, so given our macro backdrop, a lot of us sense that the top of this cycle is not likely over and sure it could drag out for 1, 2 or 3 quarters beyond our expectations, and sure if some kind of long and drug out bear period were to happen between a further top then we might question what is going in terms of the actual cycles and maybe even needs to reconsider how to look at where we are at (based on where we have been) and where we might be going... Personally, I am not giving up.. and maybe the next three quarters might be critical^tm?  perhaps?

@JJG

jeez...asking for a source for an extended passage in the age of google, etc. Really? With your typical OCD-like attention to details and incessant quotations?

Almost as soon as I 'declared' you a humanoid, you put me back in a "they pull me back in" situation.
People typically don't want to convince anyone that they are people by being prone to something contradictory to their displayed "ego".
Bad upgrade?
Sad.

I am glad that you still have feelings for me.  Try NOT to get too attached because even if I had not been responding to a few of your most recent weird statements, I can still appreciate that I had been on the cusp a few times......

Any experienced forum member should realize and appreciate that best practice is to cite sources, especially when in the form of text and the words could be misunderstood to be theirs (that could potentially be deemed as plagiarism if it is not just a failure/refusal to cite).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

We also have few champs here on WO who sold BTC ~$40k and if i'm not mistaken  Raja_MBZ also sold all around the same.


https://twitter.com/plan_marcus/status/1463255790828105729

[Richy_T]

The portable heaters are actually helping quite a lot, so a hotel should be unnecessary.

If you do go to a hotel, turn your water off.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

It's actually an electric furnace which heats water supplied to wet radiators (with hot water coming from a completely different electric immersion heater) - there is no gas in my rural location. It was installed many years before I bought the house and there seem to be hardly any of them around. I think it probably dates back to the early 1990s. There has been some kind of electrical overloading which has fried at least one, maybe all three, of the internal relays. There's also no guarantee that the element itself hasn't gone too. The manufacturer no longer exists and a search online for known spare part numbers has proved fruitless. So I could spend ages trying to source spare parts; and/or pay 100s for a call-out and repair fee with no guarantee of success; or buy an equivalent modern replacement furnace.

This is the kind of thing where parts continue to be available forever and they are often interchangeable (standard) so it's probably worth to keep investigating a bit more. It just depends which of the bits are broken. When you say relay, do you mean thermostat? Or is it part of the pumping system?

[Richy_T]

Fair enough.. yet.. aren't you citing one unsourced message with another, or am I missing something (which would not be new, to say the least).

It's from Frank Herbert's Dune*. It's well known enough that I thought I would throw it out there without citation and see what happened. Don't hate me, it's just in my nature.


*Now a major motion picture

[shahzadafzal]

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Fill up the bag! It's not going back to 48k or $10k! Next move is for $100k

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

Man, I can literally see LFC and Arrie fuming...

Hang in there guys. $100k is not too far away. One more year at most. You HoDLed through a lifetime. What's another year?

HoDL, brothers!

One more year?  Holy moley!

You are really rolling your own models, no?

Yeah, bearish, I know... But a realist too.

There's no point in sticking to some target ($100k+ in 2021), when said target becomes increasingly unreachable. PlanB's model is all nice & cute, and it could work under certain circumstances, but here we're talking about far too many uncertain parameters. Of course, this entire price dippening / suppressening / sidewaysening could just end up being a big outlier, and the price could spring back up at any time, reasserting PlanB's model. It's just that I don't currently see the dynamics of such a large UPpity action ($40k+) being able to fit inside the space on 1 month.

Early 2022? Likely.
Within 2022? A certainty (for me).

[AlcoHoDL]

OT:

For those who enjoyed The Squid Game, check out Alice in Borderland (Netflix).

I love Japan. I wish I could live there someday...

[aysg76]

[lightfoot]

It's actually an electric furnace which heats water supplied to wet radiators (with hot water coming from a completely different electric immersion heater) - there is no gas in my rural location. It was installed many years before I bought the house and there seem to be hardly any of them around. I think it probably dates back to the early 1990s. There has been some kind of electrical overloading which has fried at least one, maybe all three, of the internal relays. There's also no guarantee that the element itself hasn't gone too. The manufacturer no longer exists and a search online for known spare part numbers has proved fruitless. So I could spend ages trying to source spare parts; and/or pay 100s for a call-out and repair fee with no guarantee of success; or buy an equivalent modern replacement furnace.

Ah ok, oil retrofit. Electric immersion is pretty simple, the big problem is it's rather inefficient. I wonder if there is a heat pump solution as the loop water only needs to be heated to 120 degrees or so.

Depending on your outside climate (is it cold for just a few days a year or not) and your house power (12kw boiler is 60a so you need at least a 200a service) it might be reasonable. If you own the house and plan to stay awhile I'd say really check out a geothermal solution as those are much more efficient than an air-water heat pump.

Regardless glad you found a short term solution. Sounds like it needs a plumber for the water connections, then an electrician for the wiring work :-)