Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

I stilllike the PlanB content

He earns lots of respect for the work he has done etc

One dildo is missing on this graph! 

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[Torque]

Guys, just a PSA reminder on how markets work.

This is THE primary month for selloffs. It is customary to sell winners in order to offset losers for tax purposes.

This is a cyclical thing and happens every friggin year.

Please remember this and temper your expectations appropriately.

/end rant

Oh?

We are going down then?

No pumpening impendening?

I still stand by my prediction that the price won't really go anywhere significant until January 2022.

And for those wishing that it would double from here by the end of December, it would never hold that price for very long. It would get PnD'ed. So why would you want that?

What you want is a newer high with a new floor that will stick.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Guys, just a PSA reminder on how markets work.

This is THE primary month for selloffs. It is customary to sell winners in order to offset losers for tax purposes.

This is a cyclical thing and happens every friggin year.

Please remember this and temper your expectations appropriately.

/end rant

Oh?

We are going down then?

No pumpening impendening?

I still stand by my prediction that the price won't really go anywhere significant until January 2022.

And for those wishing that it would double from here by the end of December, it would never hold that price for very long. It would get PnD'ed. So why would you want that?

What you want is a newer high with a new floor that will stick.

Sounds good

[LoyceV]

I had to look up the word "tapering". Isn't it amazing it's so normal nowadays for the FED to buy assets, they even came up with a word for when they buy a bit less?

[El duderino_]

Just watching a pump… only in the wrong direction….

[Dabs]

Thanks but I might get internet again next week. A new plot twist. Tell u more later when I can see what I write and dont have to fight the Swedish spell check.

Över här People just dont give a fick and fly Them anyway, oh fick spela check.

I just turn off all dictionaries and spell check for my phone. It never gets anything right and just auto-completes gibberish all the time anyway.

[Torque]

I had to look up the word "tapering". Isn't it amazing it's so normal nowadays for the FED to buy assets, they even came up with a word for when they buy a bit less?

The world normalizes the Fed having to buy $120B/ month or else the world economy collapses into another Great Depression 2.0, as not a dire situation.

The world normalizes negative real rates with a shrug, like it's no big deal.

The world normalizes inflation running at 12-15% annually like it's no big deal.

The world normalizes tens of millions of jobs lost annually that are never coming back, with a shrug.

The world normalizes graduates carrying $100K+ in student loans that they'll never pay back for a basic degree, with a shrug.

The world normalizes a housing crisis that's only getting worse as no big deal.

The world normalizes a worldwide obesity epidemic that's only getting worse as no big deal.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop here.

And then they call us Bitcoin buyers as "crazy".  

[Dabs]

The world normalizes a worldwide obesity epidemic that's only getting worse as no big deal.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop here.

And then they call us Bitcoin buyers as "crazy".  

I'll pick this one, only because you mentioned it. A lot of the world are in hunger or poverty. The people who have obesity have a different problem and for many of them it's a personal thing. Only a few of them have a real medical condition that warrants treatment, the rest should be able to fix themselves on their own if they can just eat less.

Again, there are some who have real problems, but it seems to me a lot of the others have the problem in their heads only.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

The world normalizes a worldwide obesity epidemic that's only getting worse as no big deal.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop here.

And then they call us Bitcoin buyers as "crazy".  

I'll pick this one, only because you mentioned it. A lot of the world are in hunger or poverty. The people who have obesity have a different problem and for many of them it's a personal thing. Only a few of them have a real medical condition that warrants treatment, the rest should be able to fix themselves on their own if they can just eat less.

Again, there are some who have real problems, but it seems to me a lot of the others have the problem in their heads only.

It's not just a matter of eating less, it's also eating differently. I could spend an entire JJG-like diatribe talking about how the FDA and the food industry have conspired to make sure their unhealthy, carb-and-sugar laden food products (with high profit margins and next to zero nutritional value) are cheap, plentiful, and championed in the Media, vs. clean healthy meat (protein and fat) and vegetables that are getting media-smeared and made more expensive by the day.

Ever wonder why in this high inflation environment, that a bag of potato chips or a package of cookies barely goes up in price, while at the same time 2 lbs. of ground beef nearly doubles in price? That a bag of apples nearly doubles in price? There's a reason behind that. (not that I buy chips or cookies, that's garbage).

Just go research the evolution of available food over the decades in places like Tonga and the Pacific Islands, and their subsequent explosion of obesity epidemics with associated heart disease and Type-2 diabetes.

[Dabs]

I guess it's both. Eat less. Eat different. If you have access to a cell phone, or internet, you live somewhere sort of decent, have some sort of income ... you can be NOT obese. It's possible people don't know any better and were taught the wrong info, but these days almost anyone can figure it out.

[El duderino_]

Reinforcements please

Sent in the troopers

[philipma1957]

Reinforcements please

Sent in the troopers

Do me a favor reverse the image 

[Dabs]

Reinforcements please

Sent in the troopers

If you flip the image, or view it from the other side, it would have looked better huh...

Do me a favor reverse the image 

I was just about to say the same thing.

[BitcoinBunny]

Reinforcements please

Sent in the troopers

Presumably if you move to the other side of that lightning bolt it looks mega bullish.

[Dabs]

Did you know, lightning actually travels from the ground to the top (or the clouds) ...

[dragonvslinux]

Genuine wall observing on Coinbase, waiting to see if $55K will hold after initial re-test:



Old resistance level to become new support on small time-frame? Only time will tell.



Either that or expecting the $50K strong long-term support area to come into play if $55K breaks.

Am otherwise beginning to see the argument for a bullish descending wedge pattern:



So breaking back above $58.5K could certain see new ATH pretty swiftly. But the pattern appears to be lacking confirmation of third touch-point of support.
Very much like the bearish broadening wedge theory... so lack of confirmation of a bearish or bullish pattern in reality.

on the 4hr, the bears remain in control by creating lower highs as well as trapping bulls at higher prices

What a riddle, but surely could not have lower odds of coming true than the mumbo jumbo that dragonvslinux just propagated upon us....

After anticipating some bearish short-term price movement that has now occurred, after multiple rejections from higher levels, I wouldn't be surprised to see price return to short-term distribution level of $57K, as well as resistance trend-line. Simply to trap the bears at lower levels, similarly to how bulls recently got trapped at higher levels, without confirming a notable reversal at the same time, but merely a fake-out.

Either way, price is setting up for a breakout up or down in the near future, possibly over weekend, that still favours the bears in the short-term.

[cAPSLOCK]

I stilllike the PlanB content

He earns lots of respect for the work he has done etc

Totally agree.  So many folks see him as black and white too.  If you listen to him he very much recognizes that his models have been AMAZING that they have held up so long.

I really have come to like the second s2f model with the other assets included.  I think ultimately it is a more appropriate data set than just comparing purely against the USD.  I think comparing against the USD is like the temperature.  While the cross asset model is more like the weather.

I think he has a sizable bet he might be about to lose to another TA luminary.  I can't remember if it was a whole BTC or 100k.  Maybe because thats the whole bet... that it goes to 100k by end of year.

Even if he loses I think he got close ebnough to still be notable.  That said, if it does not quite make 100k @davethewave's model will be proven as the winner.

Thing is I think that model is doomed too since it is basically the opposite of the cross asset model.  Only taking into account the USD value, and banking on a decreasing parabolic arc.  I think the "S shaped" adoption breaks Dave's model eventually.

[cAPSLOCK]

The world normalizes a worldwide obesity epidemic that's only getting worse as no big deal.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop here.

And then they call us Bitcoin buyers as "crazy".  

I'll pick this one, only because you mentioned it. A lot of the world are in hunger or poverty. The people who have obesity have a different problem and for many of them it's a personal thing. Only a few of them have a real medical condition that warrants treatment, the rest should be able to fix themselves on their own if they can just eat less.

Again, there are some who have real problems, but it seems to me a lot of the others have the problem in their heads only.

Just to nit pick.  I think it is the CONTENT of the diet that causes it, not the amount. It is easy to see the human body as an energy in->energy out machine.  But the systems (citric acid cycle, hormones, etc) are FAR more complex than that.  

It really does come down to macro nutrients.  Thre are two big things we eat now that we did not used to.  Highly refined carbohydrates and seed oils.  People who drop those two things will live longer and look more like our great grandparents who did not eat them.

This age's "people chow" has hijacked out metabolisms, and the drug companies have "fixed it" by throwing gasoline (insulin) on the fire.

The good news is you can eat real food fairly easily.

I lost 60lbs effortlessly by doing this and have kept it off for 7 years...  anyone wants any input on what works PM me, though I spelled it out 95% above. It's actually simple.

-EDIT-  I see Torque already laid this out.   I will say one other thing.  When I changed the content of my diet I did not have to even CARE about the amount.  I cuold eat like a horse and would still lose weight.

That's another clue.  If the system was purely energy in/out, then we would have skeletons and super fat people.  Because just eating an extra 100 calories a day that you do not need?  That will eventually make you morbidly obese... and same thing with a deficit.  The body would waste away with a -100 kCal deficit.  But our hormones and systems adjust and keep us in the "set weight" zone either way.  What MOVES the set weight are things that cause the body to produce insulin.