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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26337004 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
somac.
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December 03, 2021, 10:29:32 PM

So what will this weekend bring us I wonder? hopefully a bounce because I'm getting tired of dip after dip. I see on-chain indicators are still going fairly well but not as good as a month ago.

What surprises me still is that the markets actually listen to the FED tough talk when they know its impossible to let things deflate as that will cause massive debt destruction (i.e money supply destruction) and the failure of society. It seems we have to go through these tempoary periods where we all pretend we are not in a ponzi before we realize that we are so the FED pumps again. Our monetary system can not survive deflation, therefore we must have inflation, the FED will let up if markets continue to sour.
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bitserve
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December 03, 2021, 10:36:50 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), JayJuanGee (1), aesma (1)

Hello guys. I have not much time for the forum these days, trying to get a promo at work, so that I get more fiat to buy coins. And also the satisfaction to climb a "level", becoming "management" (with nobody to manage, which is the best kind).

Some time ago we talked about stablecoins to trade BTC against, and I came out thinking I should go with USDC, not USDT, I wanted to see if the sentiment is still the same, here.

I want to stop trading fiat<=>BTC because legally I should declare every trade with an uber complex formula that includes the total of my crypto assets. Something I don't do, and don't plan to do, so I want to just stop doing these trades, that way after a few years without being found out, I would be "in the clear". Since I've been in crypto I put more money in that I got out so in a way there is no fiat profit, so I don't feel I should have paid taxes either, the day I'm BTC rich (well, the day BTCUSD is high enough) and live off them I won't mind paying taxes on my withdrawals (might be in a low tax place, but I would only go somewhere I would enjoy). Meanwhile I pay all my taxes on fiat income.

My trades are basic, I sell some coin every 1000$ up, and buy back 3000$ lower, using all the fiat from the sale (profit is all in BTC). It's not making me rich but I accumulate some dust that way, and it's enough to keep me from doing stupid things (like selling big amounts at low prices...). The coins I'm selling were all bought for that purpose from fiat, not part of my stash.

I notice that USDC has less volume and liquidity than USDT, I'm not sure it matters for what I do. USDC being safer seems more important. I will follow USDT prices on my phone and see if my USDC trades are executed when USDT crosses a 1000$ line.

I might change my main exchange since I won't be needing the very good instant Euro deposit anymore, nor fiat at all. Which one is a big one, safe, and with the lowest fees ?

I also have wired and converted enough fiat for my expected 2022 DCA, I will need to figure out a way to buy USDC (or other crypto that would be converted to USDC, or BTC) on the DL, without using my bank accounts, for subsequent years.

TLDR : USDC over USDT, yay or nay ?

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but... In most countries, any time you sell your Bitcoin for anything else (be it FIAT, other crypto, stable coins, or just whores & coke) it is a taxable event. You 100% sure it is not like that under your jurisdiction?

About your specific question... None of the stable coins are risk free. Haven't really analysed which one is "less risky/more stable" even if I think USDT is the more popular/widely used one.

P.S.: Looks like you are right in that France does not consider it a taxable event. That's awesome:
https://koinly.io/guides/crypto-tax-france/
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December 03, 2021, 10:39:53 PM

Observing massive walls of text with some tiny buddy walls in between.

#metoo

Sucks, doesn't it?


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

New Moon on Dec 4th => Full Moon on Dec 18th and the weekly chart reminded me of a dragon.
I think things are about to heat up(ward).  SOMA!



Jupiter9?

Is that you?
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December 03, 2021, 10:53:22 PM
Merited by fillippone (3)

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE A B S O L U T E L Y  C R I T I C A L ! ! !
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December 03, 2021, 11:01:25 PM


Explanation
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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December 03, 2021, 11:01:40 PM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2), JayJuanGee (1)

BLAH!!!!

10,159 Words.
56,675 Letters.

Dayum.

lol

my 1st computer had 1k memory. didnt get to a computer that could hold that JJG post fully in RAM till years later on my CP/M rig with 64k.

too lazy to math out the transfer time on a 300 baud modem but im sure its long enough to fall asleep waiting for it.

oh wait, just like actually reading them irl
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December 03, 2021, 11:39:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Here we go BTC. We should break $53K. $50K would be great. After that, we could come back stronger 💪.

Great for whom? I don't think it's "great" for any long time hodler whose bags are full...  Cool

What is this "Full bag" that you speak of?

It's great in the way a 25% off sale is great.

Think about it: If you told one of us at $800 a coin that bitcoin would be crashing down to 53k I don't think they would have been too depressed.
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December 03, 2021, 11:52:05 PM

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE A B S O L U T E L Y  C R I T I C A L ! ! !
TA Confirmed
OutOfMemory
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December 03, 2021, 11:55:48 PM
Last edit: December 04, 2021, 12:19:50 AM by OutOfMemory
Merited by BobLawblaw (2)

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE A B S O L U T E L Y  C R I T I C A L ! ! !

Somehow this quote made me instantly think about those good old days of LSD...  Grin Cheesy

EDIT: $53k is becoming boring already?



https://i.imgur.com/5Cx2vQk.png

Spoiler: (‿ˠ‿) (‿ˠ‿) (‿ˠ‿)
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December 03, 2021, 11:59:51 PM
Merited by somac. (1)

This "cycle" is weird, if I may say so.
I am getting 'lost' in all these gyrations, but hodling through for better or worse.

yea I'm totally lost -- I feel worn out -- not selling or anything but growing tired and could use a break from the charts and the constant feed of news...
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December 04, 2021, 12:01:35 AM


Explanation
Biodom
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December 04, 2021, 12:56:37 AM
Merited by Gachapin (1)

Here us something interesting, if true.
Apparently, SP500 is flat since 1997, if you calculate (normalize) against M2 money supply.

https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1466868260838821895/photo/1
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December 04, 2021, 01:01:29 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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December 04, 2021, 01:15:22 AM

This "cycle" is weird, if I may say so.
I am getting 'lost' in all these gyrations, but hodling through for better or worse.

Just HODL those 20 BTC (that you bought for $6k-ish in 2015), and when BTC gets to $10 million-ish per coin (soontm)**, you will be set to spend your $200k per month passive income.

**maybe 2-5 more cycles - ish

I Am Ready To Buy At $10,000

Don't hold your breath.

Even if we were in an actual bear market - or flat for a couple of years - or end of the bull market, as you suggest, you are going to be lucky to get any coins below $30k..... .. and even then, the odds are not looking too good for even that....maybe I am just fighting the fact that we could actually have fallen out of a bull market yet - especially since we already had a 56% correction and then a recovery from that.. so accordingly, look at the 208-week (4 year) moving average at $18k or the 104-week (2 year) moving average at $28k or even the 52-week (1 year) moving average at $46k.. it is hard to appreciate that we might be moving below any of those amounts in the near future or even in the next 6-12 months.. and each of those numbers are continuing to trickle upwardly with the passage of time, too.

By the way, that reminds me that Raja_MBZ may be getting excited to the extent that he might want to get back into bitcoin, but I am still having my doubts about getting down to the 200-week moving average if he maintains that as his repurchase price arena goal... though he does seem to be distracted into other nonsense, anyhow... so there is that angle, too.
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December 04, 2021, 01:15:54 AM

THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE A B S O L U T E L Y  C R I T I C A L ! ! !

allow me to say it, i kinda think that there is a very small chance Evergrande is one of the direct reasons bitcoin falls a lot today. i have been suspecting Tether's actual commercial paper list as they denied the claim (Reuters link) of investing them. as of 10 hours ago, Evergrande declared insolvency (Reuters link again) towards its offshore bonds.

the link between all crypto and Tether is that a lot of trading pairs involve Tether. and if Tether did invest in Evergrande, then that is what i am talking about.
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December 04, 2021, 01:20:25 AM

Here us something interesting, if true.
Apparently, SP500 is flat since 1997, if you calculate (normalize) against M2 money supply.

https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1466868260838821895/photo/1

That's not surprising as the stock market wouldn't be the only one to receive all of the inflows. Other things such as bonds, commodities, property, etc would of seen a good portion of it as well. I don't think the stock market is particularly overvalued though, as this M2 comparison alludes.
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December 04, 2021, 01:25:09 AM


I hate to be the bearer of bad news but... In most countries, any time you sell your Bitcoin for anything else (be it FIAT, other crypto, stable coins, or just whores & coke) it is a taxable event. You 100% sure it is not like that under your jurisdiction?

About your specific question... None of the stable coins are risk free. Haven't really analysed which one is "less risky/more stable" even if I think USDT is the more popular/widely used one.

P.S.: Looks like you are right in that France does not consider it a taxable event. That's awesome:
https://koinly.io/guides/crypto-tax-france/

Yes it's not a taxable event. And now taxation has been aligned with that of financial instruments, with a capital gains tax at 30% (you used to be taxed like other income, so up to something like 60%). What we lack is a "pocket" inside which we could trade without tax, paying only when getting money out.

The problem with USDT is that there are doubts about its backing. And authorities are looking into it. So at some point things could go bad.
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December 04, 2021, 01:39:11 AM

@jjg....or, maybe you stay away from other peoples pockets...you have quite an imagination being in a position of "unknown unknowns".
..let's keep it this way.
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December 04, 2021, 01:45:30 AM

Bloodbath with the alts that many Crypto YouTubers (very) recently shilled:
Mana, Kadena, The Sandbox, UniSwap, Solana, Cardano.
Even big daddy Ethereum is dropping more than BTC.

Will people ever learn?
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December 04, 2021, 01:51:29 AM

Ding Dong - The Bull Is Dead

It’s So Cold - Bitcoin Winter Is Coming

I Am Ready To Buy At $10,000

You still won’t buy at $10,000 if we got there (unlikely).
You’d be hoping for $2,500, I’ve seen your type many times over the years. Have fun staying poor!

But LFC.. the main reason that billy nocoiner set such a dumbass goal is because he does not want us to get there.. just like you suggested, he is not buying at any price.

At least Raja_MBZ has a somewhat possible target which is to meet the 200/208-week moving average which is currently just above $18k, so it could get up to about $20k/$22k in a couple of months.. but still does not seem very likely at all that we are going to be getting to the 208-week moving average unless we really do fall out of this bull market, which surely is also hard to believe given the so many macro-economic circumstances - or maybe there is a hope for another liquidity event and hoping that such liquidity event were to play out in some kind of way that would be similar to the March 2020 liquidity event and just does not seem that we get to cross that stream again and maybe the best case scenario with that might be something like $30k-ish..   

Personally I believe that it is not any kind of a bad thing to prepare financially and psychologically for potentially outrageous and extreme DOWN scenarios, even if they are NOT likely to happen... and for sure, Billy no coiner is taking these extremes that are quite further than what would be very likely at all to happen.. and likely it is for effect rather than practicality.. It's like those guys talking about sub $500 BTC prices throughout 2017 or talking about sub $1k throughout 2018 and 2019.. and many of us appreciated that that ship had sailed.. but did not stop them from talking about it and trying to scare (or motivate) peeps into believing that those kinds of low-ball BTC prices were still reasonably within the cards.

What's this? A dip for ants?

Well?  For me, I consider 8% to 10% to be dips for ants, and I consider 15% to 20% to be dips for ants if we had already gone up 50% or more in a relatively short period of time.. but currently our $51,556 is about a 25% correction, so it seems to be greater than "ant level", at least from my perspective... especially when we should be (we are supposed to be) (we are getting off schedule towards) going UPpity.. which is supposed to mean higher than $69k by this time on the clock...

It was all fun and dandy, king daddy, but now it is starting to become a wee bit annoying..

King daddy is annoying.

 Tongue Tongue Tongue Tongue

Hate for bears to get rewarded too much.. but hey.. shit happens.. ..even annoying shit.. and if we could just have some rewards of some shitcoins getting destroyed worse than bitcoin HODLers.. then at least there might be some consolations in that.. not sure if true, though...  Cry Cry Cry Cry
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