A few hours ago, I had seen a reference to this survey in fillippone's thread, and I did not realize that the claim was in reference to all Americans... and fuck do I have to actually go look at the survey summary rather than just asserting that it is bullshit?
No way that 26% of adult Americans own bitcoin - even if the ownership threshold were to happen to be as low as $10 (0.0002 BTC) worth of BTC... and I am not sure if we could concede that some threshold of less than $50 (0.001 BTC) worth of BTC ownership would actually constitute
(anything beyond ant dust) meaningful and substantial BTC ownership...
Ok... I did a quickie look at the matter and it seems that I have identified the issue on the third page under "Survey Methodology":
There is a link to the survey in this post from earlier today.>>>>
"An online survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers was conducted by
8 Acre Perspective between August 12, 2021, and August 20,
2021. All respondents were between the ages of 25 and 64,
and had primary or shared responsibility for household financial
decision-making. All respondents were involved in some form of
personal investing, with at least $10,000 in household investable
assets (excluding workplace retirement plans or real estate), and
at least $50,000 in household income."
<<<<
I do not mind extrapolating from a survey size of 1,000 participants.. I have no problem with that, but if you think about who Grayscale surveyed, they are not even close to surveying "all Americans" as the above referenced tweet summarizes (so maybe it is NOT Grayscale's fault but the summary's fault)...
To particularize, the surveyed persons have to have at least a $10k investment portfolio... excluding various 401ks (retirement plans) and real estate.... .. so then who the fuck would be left as supposed Americans eligible for the survey? There may be a few of us who regularly participate in this thread who would be eligible to participate in such Grayscale survey, but Jesus did we not already see information that most Americans do not even have enough savings to cover $500 in expenses.. and there is plenty of other information out there that the ONLY investments that a vast majority of Americans have is either their 401k(retirement plan) or their own individual homes.. once you eliminate these people from being eligible to participate in the Grayscale survey then we are likely dealing with elites to be eligible to participate inm such survey to even have $10k of investments outside of the two categories of retirement plans and real estate..
Sure I know that $10k is not a lot for an investment portfolio threshold but still likely 80% to 90% of actual American adults are eliminated from even having that large of an investment portfolio outside of their home and retirement plan.. and so therefore from the survey we have a best-case scenario of 26% of the 20% of adult Americans that would have even been eligible to be in the Grayscale survey, which puts us right around 5% of all Americans who would be claiming to own some bitcoin (and is that bitcoin exposure?).. and that is best case scenario.. and I rest my case... even though I could probably make some more arguments.. but who wants to argue.. when the likely situation that involves how many people actually own bitcoin is obviously exaggerated right on the face of it (at least the tweet summary of what the Grayscale survey means).
I will add that many times several of us WO regulars have asserted that we suspect world-wide adoption of BTC to be likely quite a bit less than 1%, and for sure many of us likely realize that there still are pockets of BTC hoarders
(and some of us might be hoarders too.. not saying that there is anything wrong with BTC hoarders.. but it brings down the likely distribution level of BTC amongst other normies) or maybe even we know about some circles in which we might find something in the level of 5% to 10% BTC adoption within some of those theoretical circles (maybe a group of software Engineers in Munich, Germany, expat surfers in El Salvador, college football players at UC Berkeley, or some other niche group) , but I doubt that we are going to find pockets much larger than 10% when we start going further out into the general population - except maybe if we might be focusing in on a potential Grayscale client group who have to already be into investing with a portfolio of at least $10k (outside of the value of their real estate investments and their retirement portfolios)..
Actually, I know some pretty well-off folks who seem to ONLY own real estate... and some other groups of people who happen to have retirement plans (but not too much ownership of any investments beyond that), and yeah, these normies are not diversified enough in their investments to even be qualified as a Grayscale survey participant..,. same is true for the 25 to 35 year olds who have not advanced to investing beyond their 401ks... yeah, they graduated from college, landed a pretty good job, and they invest into a 401k.. and that's about it.. and if they have been aggressive with their 401ks, by the time they are 35, the rare ones may have accumulated somewhere in the $300k to $500k arena.... since we had also seen information that even folks approaching retirement in their 50s and 60s do not even tend to have more than $500k in such retirement plans, and sure maybe those folks who are starting to build equity in their retirement plans and real estate might start to feel some inclinations to diversify investing outside of their 401k or their personal homes, but maybe one of the first things that they might invest into would be to buy a home or a second home?
Poll
