To me that's not of much concern, the idea of remaining within the same range price has effectively been in for 12 months, without a parabolic top and after confirming a recovery, but
I can't speak for any investors or traders from the past year who think that $20K or $10K could end up getting re-tested, after getting in around $40K, simply because price has twice got rejected from $64K+. Each to their own I guess
Just watching the MACD turning Bullish on the 4hr....
Not surprised
I think it price were to go significanty lower, like sub $46.2K, then we would have seen it already. Despite the lack of quick recovery, there are more weak hands to flush out for stronger ones, about 10-month worth minimum, so it's not surpsing this may take a little longer than expected or usual, and until then a tight trading range will develop... above an accumulation zone non-ironically.
There's something off with your discussion of the possibilities of retesting $10k or $20k.. and gosh you might even come off as a bit bonkers to be suggesting that retesting of $30k has any kind of realistic chances.. been there done that, and that ship has sailed.
I don't think there's something off with my discussion at all, but other investors who are now considering these exact concepts, no doubt the ones from the past 10 months in the $30K-70K range, particularly around $40-$50K I imagine. For example those who don't want to see price drop to $20K or $10K or
"I have no idea how far price could drop pls help me sir" type price range. I see very little chance of it, but many are fearful of a bear market right now, without any idea how far price could drop, or any data to suggest such a theory. Many aren't even sure if this is still a bull market, as have very little grasp of being able to identify long-term bull vs bear. After all, they only know what a bull market looks like, and don't really understand the idea that price could re-test support, which it has. Like $30K and $40K all over again basically.
Who cares what the various vague other people think? I could give less than two shits about giving much if any weight to vague concepts regarding that people might think that we are no longer in a bull market. There were plenty of those same peeps who thought the same thing in May, June and July.. and those ideas did not pan out too well.
Sure.. we seem to be in a bull market until we are not, and I am not even going to proclaim that I am going to know when until we have already been in a bear market for a year then I might concede... I am a lagging indicator, and you want to know early.. and I hardly give too many shits.. because it seems to me quite likely we are still heading up.. even if some peeps (including you) may well be scared that we are no longer in a bull market.. so what.. we can think differently.. and I already said my piece on what I believe the tentative current odds for $10k, $20k and $30k in the near future.. or even ever for that matter... we might not see sub $50k ever again.. just saying.. not likely but that is also a possibility... staying open and not giving too many shits.. but still asserting my thoughts about not liking the way that you had been talkng about $10k, $20k and $30k.. seems a bit detached from what's actually happening.. but hey, you do you.
This is why I can see price taking a little longer than usual to recover, due to the current price structure (or time structure I should say).
It does not necessarily need to take a lot of time to recover.
Sure, we just had a 39% correction down to $41,967, and that may well be sufficient for the price to return UP... NOT saying that it will, and yeah, no man's land did not really work out how I had expected, but hey, I had only assigned a high likelihood that we would go from $55k to $80k without any glitches, and the mere fact that it did not happen in the way that I thought that was amongst the most likely hardly means shit because we just adjust to the new facts which largely seem to indicate that there was a wee bit of a delay in UPpity and the DOWNity hardly even seems more likely yet.. I don't even need to reassign my various odds for UP, yet.... there is not enough of any kind of factual happenings to really get in the midst of the UP thesis that could top a bit above $69k or could end up topping as high as $1.5 million-ish... in this cycle..even if it could take until the third quarter of 2022.. possibly? Let's see... Let's see.
Many are fearful of the market right now, most of these are newbies who don't even know whether they should be buying, selling or hodling.
I doubt that is much different from previous cycles, and probably overall there is way more confidence in this cycle than there was in 2017... even though there are likely more DOWNity manipulation tools.. but even if there are more DOWNity manipulation tools, that does not mean that those DOWNity manipulation tools are going to be successful to stop the bull run that we are in, even if they seem to have been successful in undermining noman's land (at least temporarily).
Longer-term investors know there is no rush in these conditions, and simply take cheap Bitcoin as it comes back down to support.
Yes.,. .. so where is the balance going to be reached then?
Seems to me that we are in a bullmarket until otherwise, and who gives any shits about the scared newbies. Scared newbies get reckt in every bullrun.. so we need not be weighing them as if they were some kind of significant meaningful factor that we now need to take into account.. when there is already a tendency to run them over like a steamroller anyhow.
I mean look at Billy for example, he's still waiting for $10K or whatever, and the reality is he's not the only one.
Fuck Billy...
He is hardly representative.
He is a troll at best, and if you actually believe that Billy actual represents any kind of meaningful person then you are likely delusional yourself.
Sure, I know that anything can happen, but it seems that quite a bit of attention is being given to such highly unlikely scenarios.. and sure even you are saying that going below $46k could put some of those scenarios back into play.. but to me it seems that we would surely need pretty black swan events to be visiting $10k or $20k and we might even need a black swan event to get down to $30k-- even though of course, $30k has some kinds of outrageousness possibilities (maybe less than 15% odds?) that are quite a bit higher than $10k or $20k which seem to be less than 1.5% or 3% odds respectively..
Not sure where you heard me thinking that dropping below $46K would meaning creating lower prices than $30K, you must have me mistaken with those newer investors I referenced
I thought that you said that if we move below $46k then it opens up more likelihood for some of the lower numbers.. I am not mixing you up..
As I've stated before, can't be bothered to quote, closing below key support would provide a good argument that the bull market is over, for now,
You see... you just said it again. You believe that the bull market is likely to be over soon.. and I think that we are quite a ways from reaching that conclusion.. even though I do understand that it is possible that there is no further UP.. and $69k ends up being the high for this cycle.. which means that the bull market is over.. I just think that it is a minority likelihood at this time which means that I believe that we are still in a bull market.. at least until we are not.
and that given price is in a trading range of $30-70K,
Oh gawd.. that is way too damned broad.. I doubt that we are currently in a $30k to $70k trading range.. Probably we could assert that we are currenty in a $45k to $55k trading range.. probably too early to call, exactly because we just corrected down to $41,967 a few days ago.. so currently in the midst of a bounce back from that.. and let's see where it goes and if we get back into noman's land.. which seems likely to me.. but hey.. we are not there, yet.
it's most likely to stay there - maybe for another year.
I doubt it.
Not something I've really considered as that likely either, or necessarily that worrying, although sure anything is possible.
Seems like a minority scenario, but hey you can frame your tentative theory any way that you like. I prefer to stick with stock to flow, the four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects as still being driving forces that are keeping up in a likely bull market. and $70k just happens to be around the middle of Noman's land.. Hey.. I might have to readjust noman's land based on this latest correction to call the new noman's land to be $61k to $96k or something like that... to early to reformulate that aspect.. because we are still in the midst of recovering from the liquidation of longs that dropped us to $41,967 and to figure out how much of a bounce we are going to have or if we might get stuck in pre-noman's land prior to reentering the tentatively new noman's land.
Poll
