[edited out]
it's no longer people with much insight or knowledge about the currency or markets in general.
oh gawd..
you trying to make another overall
(wrong and likely irrelevant) assessment regarding how the BTC market participants have changed?
You changed the substance of what I had said by crossing part of it out.. and sure that is all fun and games if it is not potentially confusing regarding who said what.
Exactly. Not so much how investors have changed, but how they have always changed, continue to change, and how that could influence price and the future of Bitcoin's cycles.
I understand that's not to everyone's taste, but personally I prefer to wake up and smell the coffee (if it's getting hot) before it get's burn, while using a percolator.
Stop trying to act like you are more enlightened merely because you have a differing perspective.
Bare in mind that around 50% of investors are currently new, so obviously this changes the dynamic, whether you like it or not.
Interesting thing about bitcoin is that there are always new investors. Yes... that's true.. but still a BIG so what.. at least so far in the ways that you are supposedly wanting to use such information.
Many words for you then 👇👇👇
After a quick perusal... i noticed.
Willy Woo has touched on this quite a lot, based on the blockchain data available, as well as exchange data. It's part of his argument for ending up in a super cycle based on the 100% increase in Bitcoiners every 2 years. Personally, I find it interesting, even if others do not.
Sure.. Willy Woo has good analysis and a variety of good arguments.. does not make him right about specfics regarding a supercyle.. even if he has some decently good ideas.
I'm not completely convinced either. The
10-month 11-month wide trading range could easily end up like 2013, where after roughly 7.5 months of an even wider range $50 to $250, price finally moved up by 4x. So a range half that wide would still give a new ATH target at 2x the previous (ignoring the fake-out) of around $135 for example, just short of current logarithmic growth target most notably.
If you want to go down that path, then a lot of things could happen.. but seems to me that the more straight forward theory is that we are likely just having had experienced a 39% correction and returning to UPpity.. but hey.. will have to see how the coming weeks play out... in other words, to me seems to early to be going down a path of a lot of various other theories including your flat for a while (10-12 months blah blah blah).. when there is hardly any support for that idea, except that you are mentioning it as a possibility.. as if the various other dominant credible theories of stock to flow, four-year fractal and s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects can just be ignored as if they do not exist.... that's fine.. you do you, but I believe those models need to be accounted for rather than completely ignored and coming up with some random thing that seems to have less grounding in either logic or facts.
One theory that sticks in mind however is that max pain could now be a supercycle, which is probably the opposite of what most people consider it to be, thinking it's the never-ending bull run which it's not. This would be due to the number of longer-term investors who want a blow off top in order to take profits and re-invest at lower levels, even the newbies like the idea more these days, as we've seen this pattern consistently so far, so becomes harder to ignore.
It's possible that a supercycle could cause more pain .. but who knows.. we are not even thre yet.. we have to get past our current top and likely into supra $100k territory before you find very many people starting to sell. and geez,... you might have to get into supra $500k for your max pain of the supercycle theory to actually start to make sense.. but whatever, when you are going all over the place.. it is not necessarily easy to follow... kind of like a stream of consciousness way of approaching the subject matter.
Each time it has happened, it becomes more likely that people want to be a part of it, it's natural psychology. Being a sheep instead of the bull basically, being the one that traps as opposed to getting trapped.
I don't know about all of that. You seem to be getting ahead of yourself, and we have not even seen what you said to have had happened yet... so once it happens it might become more clear regarding why it happened after we see the details.. so it hardly makes a whole hell of a lot of sense to me to be trying to overly generalize what people are doing until we see it happen... or however it ends up playing itself out.
Few people want to be the guy that bought the top, they want to be the one who bought the bottom for example, even if it's not how it works. I know that many who have been around for longer aren't waiting for some 75-80% drop, they'll happily re-invest for the long-term once some suitable discount presents itself, but it represents a similar concept nonetheless.
There are all kinds of variations of such story.. and still we are so damned early that there are all kinds of people too.. so in the end, I hardly see how you can reach any logical conclusions trying to lump so many people into categories that seem convenient and we have not even seen it play out yet..
Again, you do you if you want to speculate about all that, I am not going to necessarily agree with you and maybe if it appears to be true after the fact then I might agree with such an explanation, but at this time, I don't see a lot of plausibility to try to overly generalize in the way that current buyers are supposed to fit these various categories that you are describing.
The pain could therefore be something like price getting to $100-150K in Q1, but then only falling back down to maybe $50K-$60K, taking another few months to consolidate, or even another 11 months for example, then moving upto $150K, or $200K, and overall breaking the 4-year cycle.
Doesn't sound like pain to me.
The pain comes from those who sold the top, but then never bought back in around $50-60K as were waiting for some 75-80% drop a year later that never comes, only around 50-60% for 6 months for example, as we alrady had.
I doubt that we are going to get pain unless we get at least supra $300k and then many folks selling in that arena between $300k and $500k and not having any coins.. and then the price goes to $1.5 million.. that would be painful. hahahahaha.. if you could call it pain?
The super cycle theory also doesn't mean that price is permanently in a bull market either, but rather with more short-term bear markets or longer periods of consolidation in between.
Whatever.. I will believe it when I see it.. that is if I see it.
The sort of price movements that definitely confuse investors as well as speculators as to whether price mid-term remains bullish or bearish when the answers is neither. So far I still don't see it, but with price breaking key long-term support for a bull market, and without a blow off top, I see the argument becoming much stronger. For wealth preservation this is obviously better for most people, as well as the price stability obviously becoming a necessary characteristic for Bitcoin to mature towards, some would say inevitable even. As you say, Bitcoin doesn't give a fuck about the average investor, so it shouldn't be that unimaginable that the supercycle theory is what leads to Bitcoin's price stability and therefore further adoption in future. Like actually buying a coffee for 100 sats, without that price dramatically changing next year to 350-400 sats while trapped in a 4 year cycle, then the year after to 50 sats, etc. Not the best analogy I know, but I think you get the idea here.
I get the idea.. and it also seems quite apparent that we are still in the early stages of exponential s-curve adoption, so I am not ruling out the 4-year cycles to stay within that too.. at least until they do not ... I am not going to assume them away or even assume that there are enough folks who know either the difference between 4-year cycles, the supercycle or variations of other price theories to really cause any kind of changes in the patterns that we already have.. so in other words, if there is going to be a change in the pattern, then I would like to see it first before present ming it.. .. so in other words, until the pattern changes, we still have the 4 year fractals and we still have s2f models that are quite fact based.. even if we know that history does not prove the future, but those models are still the strongest things in existence that show correlation and co-integration with actual data rather than just making shit (non-grounded theories) up.
Also generally the predictability of the blow off top event in one sense makes it less likely to occur, as less people are now wanting to buy into a parabolic run to the upside, if their idea is to sell it, in the same way others have done so in 2013 or 2017.
Blow-off tops seem way the hell more likely.. but whatever.. I would rather play it by ear and see what happens than to presume that they are not going to happen.
Waiting for prices to finally capitulate before buying back in at lower prices. Bare in mind that many investors aren't looking at wealth preservation, as many are still looking for speculative profit, hence their interest in shitcoins for example. I'm struggling to find many reasons as to why the new ATHs above $64K weren't sustained, apart from the obvious low volume (lack of buying interest). I'm not going to blame shitcoins for that like others have suggested, even if I find it an influencing factor looking back at 2017 cycle and how that played out (controversial I know). Others who are more drawn to Bitcoin's fundamentals, which I think is fair to say are increasing in the world, rather than it's speculative price movements, are more likely to buy at any price or otherwise try and buy dips (if that's what others are recommending). It means less people are going to be willing to buy tops or even break-outs, leaving only the margin traders to trap themselves at higher levels it seems. Bingo.
You seem to be going out on a limb with a lot of this.
Part of the reason that we seem to end up having various blow off tops in bitcoin is that bearwhales hold BTC prices down for longer and lower than sustainable and then they lose control of the whole situation. So you can deny it all you want or characterize however you like, but I will believe it when I see it if that dynamic were to go away.. and yeah there is a combination of fundamental investors and speculators.. and in the end, there is no real reason to proclaim that the bitcoin buyers have meaningfully changed from 2017 to 2021.. even if they are BIGGER and with BIGGER wallets and more institutions and governments but in the end, bitcoin has already anticipated this.. so even if the players are BIGGER there seems to be little to no reason that the whole dynamic is going to change in bitcoin except maybe just shaving off some of the extremes of the extremes because bigger markets are harder to move in both directions up or down.
Either way, time will tell whether this theory is correct or not, without it being too late either imo.
Yes.. time will tell. The next 1-3 quarters will be interesting.. and then reassess at that point. .have we had a blow off top or not. Have we had a correction of great significance or not. If not to both of them are either or both of them still possible or likely or not.
Nobody should ever be scared to see healthy consolidation or a correction in a bull market. Patience is a virtue.
Who said anyone is scared..
Fear & Greed Index for starts that I find a reliable metric, people overall got very scared again... even in this thread too.
Sounds like a bit of noise to me... but hey.. use whatever factors you believe are helpful, even if some of us (maybe just royal?) might consider you to be going on a bit of a tangent.. but hey you do you.
Nobody ever talks about manipulation when price is going up, only down I see. Do you have any references?
I don't need any references. If there are more tools in the market in order to be able to attempt to cause BTC prices to go down without buying any BTC, then those kinds of tools can be used to attempt to manipulate BTC price.. whether they are successful or not may well be another story.
Sounds like a theory, but a valid one nonetheless. Personally I prefer concrete data as evidence to prove specific events, especially when discussing data.
Give it whatever weight that you like. That's up to you... just like it is up to you if you want to look into the matter further or not. I have already made my point and I do not feel like providing any further links or research.. and it is not like I don't want to share information.. but I don't feel like researching into a topic further than I already have sufficient information for myself to have tentative ideas on the topic and also to make various assertions about it.. just like I did.
As far as I understand a whale simply wanted to cash out or panic sell and decided the spot market was a good place for that, hence why price dropped so quicklyt.
Have you heard about leverage?
have you heard about margin trading?
Wait, let me check.... oh wait, there it is, literally my next paragraph
Good we are on the same page, then... or at least somewhere in the same chapter.
I can't say the same for the wick down to $42K, that looked more a cascade of liquidations, after a panic seller got impatient and started panic selling even quicker, not realising he/she/they were triggering such a crash.
Each to their own... it provided some great BTFD opportunities, so I'm not going to discourage any whales from that emotional behaviour!
Don't get me wrong in terms of some thoughts that I am "into" manipulation theories that ONLY explain one side of BTC's price movements, and in that regard, I am not too much into manipulation theories in any kind of direction, but I am not going to deny that manipulation exists or to ignore various behind the scenes conduct that may well be happening.. whether it ends up affecting BTC price in one direction or another or it becomes a kind of wash.
Fair enough.
Seems to me that we are in a bullmarket until otherwise, and who gives any shits about the scared newbies. Scared newbies get reckt in every bullrun.. so we need not be weighing them as if they were some kind of significant meaningful factor that we now need to take into account.. when there is already a tendency to run them over like a steamroller anyhow.
Personally I think the newbie mentality of around 50% of those invested in Bitcoin right now is extremely relevant, as it's a great signal of what not to do.
I'm sorry you fail to see the value in that, given how rekt they routinely get in bull markets, as well as bear markets.
Yes.. newbies.. a likely wash. Good luck with your newbies in the market theory.. you are likely going to need it, if you are working your price analysis to give much if any weight to that kind of wash-laden information.
Personally, I like to consider all the variables.
I like to consider more relevant variables.. and again, if you believe some variables to have relevance and weight then that is up to you... and we may well just end up disagreeing on aspect that involve those variables or conclusions reached that are connected to those variables.
After all, buyers and sellers determine price to many degrees, even if not all or sometimes not by that much either.
I am not sure if you are saying anything of significance here.
I mean look at Billy for example, he's still waiting for $10K or whatever, and the reality is he's not the only one.
Fuck Billy...
He is hardly representative.
He is a troll at best, and if you actually believe that Billy actual represents any kind of meaningful person then you are likely delusional yourself.
He's not representative of most Bitcoiners no, but newbies are easily drawn to his and others mentality that price could drop 50%+ again from here, on a permanent basis it seems. Obviously I barely even think this is possible, without the black swan event you suggested, but this plays on many newbies emotions that are fast becoming a dominant force in this market.
yeah.. newbies and their mentality is about as dominant as one of my little fingers in terms of both of my hands (and my feet for that matter).
If buyers and sellers were both your hands, one of them would be newbies for short-term price action at least, consider that much at least.
Billy represents a lot of newcoiners mentality, that much is obvious to me. Also a useful counter-trading indicator to a certain extent.
BillyNoCoiner has been accurate at helping to identify bottoms in the market, I find value in that personally.
Don't be giving the little figure so much weight as if he were equal to a whole hand. Geez... but whatever, you want to give weight to billy nocoiner, then that's your choice.. I am not going to go along with it at all and sometimes I might even want to call him a dweeb or a double dweeb or a misinformation spreader.. so I see hardly any value in giving weight to misinformation or misinformation spreaders... again.. you do you.
I still remember in summer, when price rebounded to $40K, most newbie investors I knew were looking at a chart that was going viral with an arrow pointed to $10K or some similar stupid level, based on the idea that $40K rebound was a lower high and therefore price would go down. Claiming it was like 2017, without any real analysis to back up such a claim. The classic newbie becoming a TA expert overnight lol.
I literally had to draw a line to $1 million to show how anyone can draw a line on a chart, but without much explanation apart from "looks similar", it doesn't mean anything.
Ok... so you recognize how meaningless the newbies were in May, June, July but you still want to give them some meaning this time around?
Exactly. To me it seemed quite obvious with the new influx of newbies it meant price took longer to consolidate than expected. It generated considerable panic from longer-term investors who weren't prepared for that outcome it seems.
Seems like we are repeating ourselves here.
When I hear in this thread saying "the next 24 hours are critical", when they are completely not, it reminds me of the newbie's influence on short-term price action.
Sometimes guys in this thread purposefully exaggerate too.. you know that, right?
And you would not want to be responsible for my loss of vision, would you?
Don't think I'd feel responsible, that'd be your choice to blind yourself which I would wholeheartedly respect
I should be o.k. now. I stuck some toothpicks in the back of my eyeballs when I am reading your posts, so that way my eyeballs will ONLY go back so far.. so I do not run the risk of them getting stuck back there. So you can stop worrying so much about my well being.. I am good.
As I've stated before, can't be bothered to quote, closing below key support would provide a good argument that the bull market is over, for now, ...
Not something I've really considered as that likely either, or necessarily that worrying, although sure anything is possible.
You see... you just said it again. You believe that the bull market is likely to be over soon..
Again, you misunderstood me. I said
IF price moves below key support, which it has not done so.
I am not misunderstanding you.
You clearly were, I don't see how you can deny that. In exactly the same paragraph I clearly stated I don't believe it to be the case either? I'm not sure how you could have ignored that... It's quite a rudimentary tactic to take someone's quote out of context, and personally I expected a lot better from you. I fail to see what you have to gain from misrepresenting me here.
We should move on, no?
For the past few days I've reiterated many times how the bull market has been given further confirmation. I've not once said "I believe the bull market is likely to be over soon", not even slightly. I've only elaborated on what I think would happen if the bull market ends, which again to reiterate, it has not, and I don't believe will happen either in a hurry.
But I already explained this anyway in my previous post, so probably no point reiterating it so many times if you fail to acknowledge that, for whatever you think you have to gain (which is nothing by the way)...
You acknowledge that you are repeating yourself..., so each of us has made our points in that direction... no seems to me that there are no real needs for further belaborings.
As I've said repeatedly in this thread, I see no evidence that the bull market is over, again you have misunderstood my analysis.
Yes..
even though you see no evidence that the bull market is overHang on, this is a complete contradiction of your previous statement:
You see... you just said it again. You believe that the bull market is likely to be over soon..
With this, I hope you can clearly see where either the misunderstanding or intentional misrepresentation comes from here.
I do see no reason to keep talking about it.. whatever point is perhaps contained therein.
Go on then, tell me more about what if the bull market were to be over even though you do not believe it to be.. does that make sense? You are contributing to your own talking outside of both sides of your mouth, no? You want to be academic? so what.
Well fortunately, I did at the top of this post, so you can read my theory on what happens if, which I find very interesting personally. The idea of a 10 year+ cycle being broken is not only intriguing to me, but naturally raising the question of why and how. I otherwise don't see how I'm giving contradictory statements, I think it's best to see my theories as a flow chart, if one direction is taken, then a different event occurs. Consider it like cause and effect, but the cause has to actually take place.
Ok. you got it on the record.. if that is what you want.
Using the phrase
talking outside of both sides of your mouth appears to be more of a projection of your own statements above, those that completely contradict each other
Well that might be part of the reason that continuing to go down a certain path to reiterate is no longer helpful.. especially if the point has already been made, then why continue to argue about it or try to get someone on the interwebs to agree with a point that you believe that you have already clearly and sufficiently made?
I also think now based on price structure that if the bull market ends, given the wide $30K-70K range in the past 10 months (fact not opinion),
Yes a fact with misleading implications.
You're only misleading yourself if you think such a wide trading range means X, Y or Z without any reasoning.
I believe that I already sufficiently made my points on that topic (maybe even more than sufficiently?).
and that given price is in a trading range of $30-70K,
Oh gawd.. that is way too damned broad.. I doubt that we are currently in a $30k to $70k trading range..
Please have a look at the chart, price has been between $28K and $69K for the past 10 months, so I was rounding.
So what.
So best not to mislead yourself with data? I don't know how you want me to answer that one for you, don't think I cant help.
It's ok to be wrong every now and then. Everyone get's things wrong, myself included obviously!
We have each made our points, no? Why continue to belabor whatever further points you would like to make? I doubt that it is helping anyone.. not us nor anyone else.
This has been the trading range, unless you know of other trades that have been occurring OTC or otherwise outside of this range, this IS the current price range long-term.
Yeah.. believe it all that you like.. good luck with those vague boundaries and your belief that they are relevant in terms of attempting to make a meaningful analysis..
I don't think they are vague, they are quite specific. 11 months of trading data is indeed quite relevant to me, I certainly wouldn't want to analyse for the long-term with any less that's for sure.
We have each made our points.. seems to me.
Nor am I implying that price is stuck on that range, but that trades have been occurring between these prices.
Again. So what?
Well, I already made my point, but think it's been snipped. It's at the top anyway
Good.. we are about to close this topic. YES!!!!!
This is fact not opinion.
Who cares? yes.. you do ... but still.. ?
I always care about facts, much more so than opinions. Many people I know also appreciate facts, not that you have to obviously.
I guess it's just another case of a difference of opinion. Some people live by facts, others prefers opinions I guess.
Yes.. we give different weight to different aspects, and I believe we have each outlined that sufficiently, but sure if you feel that you want to go on about it and to suggest that you are more fact based, then that is your choice.
it's most likely to stay there - maybe for another year.
I doubt it.
Please avoid misquoting me, given how often you misunderstand me.
Who is misquoting you? not me.
Good example higher up for you with evidence included, hopefully that settles the matter.
Yes.. it is all settled. We can move on.
I don't mind the misunderstandings, but the misrepresentations are simply quite rude.
I doubt that misrepresentations are going on.
Apart from the obvious misrepresentation that is.
You want to keep battling.. .. ok.. fair enough.
I will wait until there is something a bit more meaningful to battle about. It seems to me that we have already beaten this aspect to death.. and yeah, not like the topic will not come up again, but at least if some time passes, then we might some variations of the facts that have changed to and we will be able to work with some new facts, perhaps?
If you believe that you are not being understood well enough, then make yourself more clear.
This is nothing more than attempting to gaslight me into thinking this didn't happen, when it did.
Because it didn't matter how clear I made myself, you still managed to misquote me regardless.
But it's ok, you made your contradictions clear so I'm not going mad at all...
Yes. Why bat around topics that each of us have already sufficiently made our points? By now, I have even forgot about what we were talking about. Bitcoin, no?
I feel that I am making sufficiently good enough representations, and if you believe I got it wrong then state it..
Done.
Why bother with these unlikely theories? Because people are curious as to what is likely to happen if support breaks, and as I said it's much less of a concern than 2013 or 2017 bubble pops.
Fair enough... There are members who do talking about unlikely scenarios.. and they may well get backlash.. so do what you like.
I don't mind backlash, and now come to appreciate it, especially when it's led by misrepresentation. It shows someone is struggling to argue against it when they resort to this.
We each made our points.. I doubt that there is any struggling going on.. if you believe that more evidence is needed from the other side (from me) or you believe that you won the argument, you can believe what you like, but to me it just seems that there are various areas in which we are giving differing levels of weight to different facts and we have some arguments and logic that we believe more than other arguments and logic.. which is another way of saying we can just agree to disagree on some of the aspects.. and just see how matters play out.
I honestly hadn't put too much thought into alternative theories, but you've definitely woken me up to it's relevance based on how people don't want to hear it.
For me, if there are various theories that describe:
A 34%
B 26%
C 19.5%
X 12.5%
Y 7.5%
Z 1.5%
If you want to spend a disproportionate amount of time talking about Y and Z, then I am going to lose patience with you.. even though I do not mind some discussion of Y and Z.. but it is your choice if you want to spend all your time talking about minority theories.. seems like nonsense to me, and my calling you a dweeb is based on your wanting to focus more time than it is worth on them, not because you would like to mention those theories...especially if we have A, b c and x and you are acting as if all of the theories were equal, when they are not... and I am not even denying y and z to exist.. I just assert that they have little to no weight relatively speaking, but you want to talk about them as if they were the best thing since sliced bread.. get's a bit frustrating for some peeps.. no?
It reminds me of the backlash when being bearish around $10K-14K, prior to the drop to $7K, it helped to reaffirm my opinion quite nicely to be honest.
You are making false equivalencies.
Not that I think price will drop 40-50% I should say (to avoid any misinterpretation here), but controversial theories often prove to be correct it seems.
Yes..minority theories do end up playing out sometimes... but still does not mean that we should spend 24/7 talking about them, but whatever, you found your niche.. so be it.
I still remember the bears in 2018 during the $6K-8K range, who were a considerable minority, while everyone thought they were completely bonkers talking of price dropping in half. Myself included at the time... that was definitely an eye-opener for me that made me sceptical or popular opinions. That was my first valuable lesson in learning that the majority is usually wrong when it comes to markets.
I am glad that your vision is so clear.
Also the obvious of being prepared for any scenario, so as to never be surprised, confused or upset about price movements, and simply benefit from adequate risk management.
Sure. We should be prepared for either UP or down.. I am not against that, especially since I also talk about being prepared for UP or DOWN frequently, too.
Ironically, that's only what I've been doing. The only difference is I provide reasoning for why I believe these things to occur, as opposed to considering up or down unaffected by a diversity of variables.
I doubt that your approach is superior merely because you state it to be. There are a variety of ways that guys engage in preparations for up and down and not everyone uses the same kind of risk management strategies because their circumstances are different including their particulars..including but not limited to cash flow, other investments, view about bitcoin compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills abilities to plan, strategize, tweak plans based on learnings, reallocate from time to time including considering the employment of trading, financial instruments, leverage/margin or other financial tools... the later parts are advanced options that many people choose not to employ but does not make them dumber necessarily merely because they choose not to fuck around with trading, financial instruments or leverage.
Poll
