Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

BTW what's wrong with the mempool again? I'm waiting for a transaction to arrive for almost 24h now! Paper hands panic selling and clogging the mempool? 

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[BitcoinBunny]

Who's buying this fucking shit? "The Bored Ape Yacht Club"
What the fuck is this bollocks, seriously?

I wouldn't give them 3 cents.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59638565

Utter pish.

[Biodom]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start believing that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[serveria.com]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

Possible (or as JJG says perhaps.. perhaps.. haha  ). But we can as well still be in the same cycle with a blow off top delayed until Q1 2022. Even if we're not, I don't think we're going down a lot from here because MS, Grayscale, Bukele etc are not selling I'm sure about that. Already $30k looks very improbable. There are little to no weak hands lefts (only miners desperate to cover running costs?). If I haven't sold at $69k why should I sell at $46k? Does it make any sense?  

[serveria.com]

Also, nobody knows what's coming next. People are confused but not scared (yet). So I don't think we should expect some major selloffs soon.

[OutOfMemory]

Also, nobody knows what's coming next. People are confused but not scared (yet). So I don't think we should expect some major selloffs soon.

Agree.
And... so far i've seen worse things before.

[philipma1957]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

All I know is I sold 18500 worth in early november. 61-67k I am buying it all back at far lower prices.  

Get some dip while you can.

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

[serveria.com]

Also, nobody knows what's coming next. People are confused but not scared (yet). So I don't think we should expect some major selloffs soon.

Agree.
And... so far i've seen worse things before.

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

[OutOfMemory]

Also, nobody knows what's coming next. People are confused but not scared (yet). So I don't think we should expect some major selloffs soon.

Agree.
And... so far i've seen worse things before.

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

It'll have to go below $10k for me to mindrust it.
But that's proudhon's territory i'm stepping on now 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.

I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now  

I took significant, life changing (to an extent) fiat out & now I don’t regret it at all. If we go much, much lower I will hoover up cheap coins. If we don’t then whatever, I am set for life now. Totally chilled until the next halvening & beyond.

 

[JayJuanGee]

Merited a long post…. For effort and writing work….

Everyone earns something while working 

Sometimes a bit more work than initially intended...

It's not like a bot is coming up with all of the ideas contained therein.

Moar pain!!! I'm not selling, we're not selling brethren! Bring it on bears, is it all you've got? 

Gosh..

Not selling should have been a given.. .. kind of like an unspoken


Who would-a-thunk?

Ok, I'm posting a cat picture.



Or not.

So no it works again, This is a weird day for me.

Arrie!  It has a red dildo in the foreground, damnit!

Looks more like a red buttplug (on a handy stick for sitting on)

You had to go there? 

I see a pussy pic and you see..


oh well...

Such down,
So dip,
Pray to Karhu and weep.

I'm praying that my lowest buy order at $44.500 gets filled today.
All the higher ones were already hit, catching the knife  

I know it is tempting.. but you should try to stop yourself from those kinds of wishenings.

For me, it is pretty rare to get to the last buy order, so the closer that we get to my last 5-10 buy orders I start to get a little bit nervous... Of course, if we had gone up for 4x or 6.5x, then maybe it is not such a BIG deal to have several corrections along the way and to attempt to balance out some of the buy orders that had been stacking up (seemingly too much)... maybe I just have an ongoing preference for UP.. even though currently I have buy orders down to $20k, but I don't even really want anymore buy orders in the $40ks to get filled.. Of course, I am willing to tolerate such ongoing buying of BTC.. but still would prefer NOT to buy any more BTC in the $40ks.. make it stop, make it stop.. ..

Is it just me?

I gave it up already. It stops when it stops.
Wishful thinking didn't work for me, so probably the $44.5k will never get hit  

I hope not... .. I also hope that this is the last chance, ever, for anyone to be buying BTC below $50k.. but seems like a pretty BIG ask at this point in time.

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.
It's time to start beliving that bitcoin price is simply chaotic now with an upward trend driven by diminishing pulses from the halvings.
In retrospect, maybe about 70K top (intermediate or not) was inevitable, considering the bulk of the data or is it?
Consider this series: 32, 1160, 19835, "68991".
First three tops already happened.
From the first to the second it was X36.25X, from second to third  X17.09, so the third interval (8.06X, if you project diminishing returns) should have been to $159,811, NOT 68991.
What's wrong? I guess nothing and it simply does not fit into linear logic any longer.
What about lows?

2, 175, 3100:

87.5X, then 17.71X, then it should be 3.58X, which is only $11,110, which is crazily low number (below 200wk MA)-quite unlikely.

Let's look again at that 159,811 number and assume that's where it should have peaked if not for a bunch of a-holes pushing it down.
A 'normal" 80% drawdown from there is $31,962, which is at or even slightly higher than where we were in June.

Therefore, I have a new thesis: this cycle was scrambled by the covid and multiple hasty gov "responses", so it did not pan out as predicted.
Instead, we truly peaked in Feb at 65K, got cut short by China, then we cycle-corrected to 29K.
Since June, we are in the new cycle, which started unusually robustly (since there was some unused buying energy that got curtailed by China), in a way, similar to a "premature" pop to 14K in the summer of 2019.
Now, we are getting to the plateau stage, but, hopefully, not lower than ~30K.

I continue to hold, but expect a bottoming pattern for a while since we are too ealy in a new cycle to experience rapid growth.

TL;DR we are already in the new cycle and expecting 160K soonish is in vain. BTW, congrats to @LFC on a cycle top sell (of at least a portion).

You speak a lot of nonsense.

Are you trying to compete with naim027 to see who can say the dumbest (or at least the most incomprehensible) things?

At least, while you are rolling your own seemingly out of your ass cycles (price prediction models) and your own formulas for determining random tops/bottoms, you concede that the top might not be in.. That's one positive.

[El duderino_]

If it wasn’t cause of PlanB hopium a lot of people where saying we where in a Bearmarket mid this year at 30 K

NO one saw a pump for this year and PlanB was written off

Same thing happening now, price is low and everyone says Bear to quick imho
This time PlanB isn’t on point anymore, but I expected him to fall of the rails sooner or later with the S2F chart… it still is an interesting model, but nothing follows an exact model….

Please don’t say bear to fast you guys frighten the n00bs, and the OG’s

Weird enough




Uughh Uughh …. If it isn’t for the cash, don’t mind to much, funds are safu.
BTC saving is ultimate KEY.

[serveria.com]

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash! 

I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.

I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now  

I took significant, life changing (to an extent) fiat out & now I don’t regret it at all. If we go much, much lower I will hoover up cheap coins. If we don’t then whatever, I am set for life now. Totally chilled until the next halvening & beyond.

 

Congrats! Another WO bro set for life and got his life changed by Bitcoin. You've joined the glorious cohort of WOers on FIRE (financial independence retire early). Bawb, Jimbo etc... ranches and lakes...  no bitterness here I really adore you guys and hope to join you one day

Me, I wasn't that lucky unfortunately so I'll just stay here for a while. I have raised all my sell orders from ~50k to 80k a while ago (some WOers clairvoyant granny's prediction remember?  ).

[fillippone]

This is getting ridiculous! Arrie is bringing the price down by posting his red dildos and cats. We need more gay xmas cards:



 

Whatever it takes.




Helping my friend @LFC_Bitcoin with his image:

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Whatever it God damn takes. Happy Xmas boys.

https://i.ibb.co/HTDM0Kf/CD252054-97-FD-4-BB1-B739-A272-F493-EF39.webp"

(theymos limit on images per page so had to link)

Send it to $70,000

[vapourminer]

Merited a long post…. For effort and writing work….

Everyone earns something while working 

Sometimes a bit more work than initially intended...

It's not like a bot is coming up with all of the ideas contained therein.

no, you are at least two bots that switch back and forth as one or the other gets updated software and tested off line.

[Biodom]

@jjg...still ways to go before you learn how 'normal' humans typically talk to each other.
To whatever you say, i would respond...let's wait and see.
I understand that you are somewhat limited in what you can 'predict' and therefore, react unfavorably when someone does that "unusual' thing.
It's a weakness..you should "fight" it.
However, I see no value in various stepwise buy, sell scenarios, which are boring as heck, so it is that.

[shasan]

Whatever it God damn takes. Happy Xmas boys.

https://i.ibb.co/HTDM0Kf/CD252054-97-FD-4-BB1-B739-A272-F493-EF39.webp"

(theymos limit on images per page so had to link)

Send it to $70,000

[JayJuanGee]

{various predictions]

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

It seems that several times we have seen these kinds of errors that seem so inclined to suggest that cycles are gone.. when they are not even gone, yet... in other words, ongoing premature assertions regarding the death of the cycle..

I'll believe it when either I see it or I see actual evidence beyond bald assertions..