Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

Despite the price-based technical analysis looking shaky today, retail accumulation continues...



https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1470777764886495233

I do not have access to data ANYTHING like Mr. Woo, but I am NOT seeing this retail volume anywhere...  Wonder what exchange(s) he is using, and I am assuming he must be using USD volume not BTC volume.  This "dip" looks NOTHING like March 2020 to me.

Mr. Woo's conclusions are mainly worthless SOMA stuff, while he is acting like a super intelligent pro.
He probably makes good money that way
A little bit like Tone Vays but way worse..

[1713455931]

1713455931

[cAPSLOCK]

End of year/beginning of new year prediction:

Some well-known entity or person is going to announce a sizeable bitcoin acquisition. It could be Elon Musk (again), Jack, M. Saylor, Ark Invest, or some other notable person or company we haven't heard about yet.

It'll either happen right before 2021 ends, or shortly after 2022 begins.

Just leaving this here for the funzies.

You think the price action is in part reflecting that "work" currently being done?

Yes.

Wealthy elites, entities, and funds don't buy assets on-market and at high prices. They buy OTC, below spot when the asset is undervalued, and their whale connections help them to do it.

I agree with your assessment... and I think we will see much much more of this.  But it is interesting to me to see if this ultra organic asset with a real limited and known supply will be endlessly manipulable like paper gold.  I have a feeling physical gold being sequestered to <God knows where> is an integral part of how this trick works.  With a ephemeral bearer asset I think the kind of shenanigans needed to run this rope-a-dope are in jeopardy, perhaps.

This is a new frontier, I think. A fun time to be alive for sure.

[JayJuanGee]

Me, I wasn't that lucky unfortunately so I'll just stay here for a while. I have raised all my sell orders from ~50k to 80k a while ago (some WOers clairvoyant granny's prediction remember?  ).

I think it was 600Watt?

You see OOM.  Your memory is not that bad.  I had not recalled the meaning of the "clairvoyant granny" referent until you mentioned 600watt, and now my memory has been refreshed in that direction too.

It's like each of us remember different things, and then there can be some power within some of the crowd sourcing matters, even though I am still waiting for the power of the crowd to give me some kind of a solution to my question regarding why I cannot set BTC sell orders above $100k on BinanceUS... and really, my problem with that particular issue is not really seeming as urgent in recent times anyhow.

End of year/beginning of new year prediction:

Some well-known entity or person is going to announce a sizeable bitcoin acquisition. It could be Elon Musk (again), Jack, M. Saylor, Ark Invest, or some other notable person or company we haven't heard about yet.

It'll either happen right before 2021 ends, or shortly after 2022 begins.

Just leaving this here for the funzies.

You think the price action is in part reflecting that "work" currently being done?

Yes.

Wealthy elites, entities, and funds don't buy assets on-market and at high prices. They buy OTC, below spot when the asset is undervalued, and their whale connections help them to do it.

I do believe that you make a decently good point here Torque in terms of the goals of many larger investors is to strive to be ahead of the curve, and surely even in bitcoin some of them can play the game right to be able to get their little side deals and special treatment.

It likely has also been the case that a lot of the BIG entities have been way the hell too greedy and even underestimated bitcoin in several ways and they have become frustrated with several aspects in which they are not really able to easily shake a lot of the longer term HODLers from their coins - and especially NOT to the degree that they wished that they were able to accomplish such shakening.. so there are several times in which some of the BIGGER players had been forced to buy whatever BTC they do have at higher prices than they would have wanted to and surely some of them do get locked out of BTC's price appreciation because they are too smart for their own good (too smart by a half as Greg Foss likes to say)...

Even in recent times we have examples of such dynamics in which the BIG players got fucked... Hey Torque think about it.. this might be one of the areas that you and I might be able to come closer in resolving because it seems to me that you frequently want to presume that some of these BIGGER players are able to get their way, and I am sure that you agree that sometimes they get fucked in terms of the level of their greed, and you and I can agree to both be somewhat gleeful about their getting fucked by bitcoin way more frequently than they are either used to or that they would prefer.  

So anyhow back on track and back to my story, my assertion remains that a lot of these privileged fucktwat manipulators were thinking that they were going to get BTC prices below $28,600 in May/June/July and perhaps even below $20k and even into the $15k arena.. similar to their thinking that they were going to be able to get sub $2k coins and maybe as low as lower $1ks in late 2018 and into 2019.. but both times they got fucked royally up the ass by UPpity BTC price performance.. and so this time around they are still hoping to get into BTC with sub $28,600 coins, and really I have my doubts about whether their quench will be satisfied.. maybe some of them are like Raja_MBZ and waiting for the spot price to meet the 200 week moving average, which is currently in the $18,500 arena and will soon be moving above $20k.. and sure anything is possible.. but I would still bet that the odds are not so highly in their favor as they would like and there are pretty decent odds that they are going to get fucked again, especially if they continue with those kinds of greedy expectations.. yeah they have futures and they have some new additional financial shorting tools that allow them to push the BTC price down without putting any BTC on the table, but are they really going to be successful or willing to loose that much money (even if they might have seemingly unlimited amounts of money) when the BTC price moves against their manipulation attempts?

Of course, retail is doing way better with BTC than they have been able to do with various traditional investments, and that contributes to causing even more resentment from some of the BIG players who really want to screw retail.. and they have been continuing to be as successful as they would like to be.. and don't get me wrong, I am not conceding that the haves do not have the ability to profit way more than the have nots, but there are plenty of them that remain too greedy by a half (Foss) and normies are also still able to get into bitcoin and to figure out ways to profit way more than they have historically been able to profit by any kind of prior investments that were difficult for them to get into.. and yeah of course we have the greatest wealth transfer going on too.. and so surely in the short term, some normies can get reckt by that too if they do not learn how to approach their BTC investment in terms of prioritizing buying, accumulating and HODLing for several years and riding out some of the shorter term attempts at DOWNity manipulation that may or may not end up being successful for those who are used to getting their ways in regards to finances/investments and getting/staying richie.

[d_eddie]

I think we will see much much more of this.  But it is interesting to me to see if this ultra organic asset with a real limited and known supply will be endlessly manipulable like paper gold.

The asset itself is as hard as can be, but there are ways.

Easy naked shorting, for example. Or paper buildings built on top a hard foundation, maybe. Options, futures, all kinds of derivatives. Or ETFs built on top of that, possibly. How peculiar that the only ETFs approved in the USA are paper based. Because regulated market safu, of course.

This is a new frontier, I think. A fun time to be alive for sure.

How to disagree on this?

[JayJuanGee]

I think we will see much much more of this.  But it is interesting to me to see if this ultra organic asset with a real limited and known supply will be endlessly manipulable like paper gold.

The asset itself is as hard as can be, but there are ways.

Easy naked shorting, for example. Or paper buildings built on top a hard foundation, maybe. Options, futures, all kinds of derivatives. Or ETFs built on top of that, possibly. How peculiar that the only ETFs approved in the USA are paper based. Because regulated market safu, of course.

This is a new frontier, I think. A fun time to be alive for sure.

How to disagree on this?

Your negative nancy is coming out d_eddie....

[d_eddie]

It's just that mommy told me about the evil ways of the world.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Ant

Ser

[bullrun2024bro]

We did it boys! This is what MOON feels like:



Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/

PS: Screenshot 14.12.2022

[LoyceMobile]

CMC drunk again? It also messed up Coinomi.

[OutOfMemory]

Me, I wasn't that lucky unfortunately so I'll just stay here for a while. I have raised all my sell orders from ~50k to 80k a while ago (some WOers clairvoyant granny's prediction remember?  ).

I think it was 600Watt?

You see OOM.  Your memory is not that bad.  I had not recalled the meaning of the "clairvoyant granny" referent until you mentioned 600watt, and now my memory has been refreshed in that direction too.

Yes, it got better, and i'm working hard to improve it.
In this case i made a note in a text file, which i came across several times within the last months. That certainly helps to keep some information for longer.
I think i even remember last time i tried to recall 600Watt, when i failed. This time it just popped up in my mind.

Working memory is generally used for different tasks than storing/reminding simple, single-associated informations/relations, for example repeating and summarizing sentences and stories, making plans and meeting decisions, getting an overview of a situation/process, as well as reminding vocabulary. I spend a lot of time in dictionary software when writing replies, because i struggle to find the right expression although i actually know (but can't recall) it. It's just not "there" when you need it, most of the time.
It's still unthinkable to write and maintain source code, which was a big part of my dayjob before i got the fucking flu that triggered all this.

Both short- and longterm memory have both improved to satisfying degrees over time, thanks to good therapists and regular exercise.


Off topic:

Thick fog is actually beautiful, if you are outside of it.

[dragonvslinux]

Despite the price-based technical analysis looking shaky today, retail accumulation continues...



https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1470777764886495233

I do not have access to data ANYTHING like Mr. Woo, but I am NOT seeing this retail volume anywhere...

It wasn't noticed on the charts in 2020 either, that's precisely the point here. No doubt because this specific set of retail accumulation being very low volume. This quiet accumulation began to increase from around $9K in 2020, upto $10K, down to $4K, and peaked out around $6K roughly. The accumulation is very similar to what has been seen from $40K to $69K, back down to $42K, to where price is now.

Wonder what exchange(s) he is using, and I am assuming he must be using USD volume not BTC volume.  This "dip" looks NOTHING like March 2020 to me.

It is based on all BTC off-exchange wallets, not USD, as can be read in the subtitle: "7 day change in coin balances of hodlers les less than 1 BTC".

There is also notable accumulation of >1 BTC hodlers since $30K dip, for reference sake. The point is these "shrimps" have been outperforming whales since $3K prices, due to being more strong-handed hodlers. Dropping below $60K hasn't shaken them out either, quite the opposite, they have increased their accumulation.

To me it seems a bit difficult to make real solid conclusions in regards to that kind of data and to really assert that retail seems to be buying BTC. 

Sure, if don't trust his blockchain data or think institutions have been the ones adding <1 BTC to their balance sheets in recent months, I can't convince you otherwise. It's possible, but highly unlikely imo.

For sure, many of us would like to see some increases in the buying and getting started in BTC activities of retail, especially since we have seen quite a few examples in the past year and a half of guys like Michael Saylor educating institutional investors about the value of hoarding.. and even really seeming to lead by example, too.

If only the institutions were hodlers, but you really think they are allowed to do that when sitting on considerable profits, that they are simply not used to in such a short amount of time, that their traditional and rigid risk managements strategies allow them to do so? I doubt that very much, with the exceptions of some institutions like TSLA and MSTR. A few others maybe, but clearly not the rest.

This is why no doubt why the >1000 BTC wallets steadily increased from $6K prices to $36K, prior to $60K, only to dump their bags all the way down to $30K. Failing to re-accumulate thereafter. No surprises there, at least they've done better than in 2016 when they started dumping at $600 in order to re-accumulate at $10K. Hilarious stuff. The whales have a history of getting it wrong basically.

The >100 BTC addresses have also performed piss poor, as has been the case since 2016 when they started dumping at $1K lol. The >10 BTC hodlers have easily outperformed them, even if they did start selling at $20K, they've learnt from their mistakes and started re-accumulating at $30K at least, though still down considerably from $8K prices in 2020.

Of course of course we can point out how BTC prices have risen over the years, people "breaking up" their stashes, etc, but the data remains completely unaffected by these theories. Especially if you consider the <1 and >1 BTC addresses as likely enough to be DCA accumulation from larger hodlers, as well as shrimp like buyers. But this still would be categorised as retail accumulation is also the point here.

Summary: Be like the <1 BTC and >1 BTC addresses who have a good history of accumulation, not the >100 or >1000 addresses who sell too early and fail to accumulate late in the rallies.
There is also the obvious reality that Bitcoin is generally a wealth re-distribution game, and has been for 10+ years. From long-term hodlers with more, to short-term hodlers with less.
If it makes you feel better, break up those 10-1,000 stacks of BTC into 0-9 stacks, just so you feel like you are on the winning teams 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Only if you're not rich enough to pay someone else do it. 

Unfortunately, that's something that pushes against my upbringing. There might be some level where I was happy doing that, I suppose.

[Richy_T]

About these purple "no trespassing" markings, can't this be used by someone to get away with murder? You drag someone inside the fence, you shoot him dead, and then claim he was trespassing and did not respond to verbal warnings and warning shots. How would the authorities in the relevant USA territories deal with this?

Shooting trespassers is not actually legal. However, the truth of the matter is that if you have any amount of land, you could make the body disappear and that would probably be that.

[BitcoinBunny]

Bought another 100 Big Mac meals worth of BTC.  




Green dildo....

Why does Coinmarketcap fuck up during such critical FOMO moments?
I've seen that before.  

[cAPSLOCK]

We did it boys! This is what MOON feels like:



Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/

PS: Screenshot 14.12.2022

Yeah... Never been a fan of this site for SEVERAL reasons (not the least of which being a market cap for Bitcoin is only slightly more valid than one for a shitcoin, and neither is valid) but what the hell?

[dragonvslinux]

Regarding the willywoo link above there were a couple more tweets from woo to attempt to further explain the data of the graph and surely just a few interesting replies to the tweets too.. such as the ongoing buying does seem to allow greater odds for our run to be continuing yet in any event, even if the data ends up being correct in terms of retail continuing to buy, we can never have a whole hell of a lot of confidence regarding some momentum continuing until maybe we start to see the price go back up into the $50ks and maybe we have to even get into the upper $50ks to really start to get some confidence coming back.

I mean sure, based on price action, this isn't really a trade-able dip very easily, no doubt why many traders have continued taking profits while others have been accumulating. At least the whales have stopped dumping and the longs got liquidated, that's the main takeaway here. The information Willy Woo often presents is when the fundamentals suggest dips are good for buying, as opposed to price-based breakouts to the upside. If people want to wait until +20% @ $60K for confirmation, then they should obviously do so. If people want to buy the average price over the past year, now there chance basically (or at least it was).

If people don't want to buy the 50 Week MA @ $48K, I recommend waiting until the 100 Week MA currently priced around $30K, or even the 200 Week currently @ $18.5K. Each to their own really. Either way, with price getting back to $60K, no doubt those who got out of positions at $50K, or wish they had bought there, will fomo back into the market above $60K just like they did before.

[OutOfMemory]

About these purple "no trespassing" markings, can't this be used by someone to get away with murder? You drag someone inside the fence, you shoot him dead, and then claim he was trespassing and did not respond to verbal warnings and warning shots. How would the authorities in the relevant USA territories deal with this?

Shooting trespassers is not actually legal. However, the truth of the matter is that if you have any amount of land, you could make the body disappear and that would probably be that.

You get better chances with a little help of our animal friends...

Oregon serial killer Susan Monica murdered two men, dismembered them and fed them to her hogs. But she was caught when remains were found on her 20-acre farm.

So hogs won’t eat everything?

The TV Tropes website seems to verify this, explaining that a pig will “eat meat if they are able to come by it. Fact of the matter is, pigs can eat almost anything they can chew. (They’ve even been known to eat pork if they find it.)”

[Toxic2040]

#stronghands