Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Farmer Bill]

OT: All this talk in the MSM about the "relief rally" in stonks, and how the market "liked" the hawkish Fed news about tapering and potential 3 rate hikes in 2022.

Lol, what bullshit. The stonk market only likes free money, and more of it. They in fact hate tapering, and really hate higher interest rates. And they could give a shit about inflation.

A bunch of shorts got hammered, that is all.

What everyone should be very worried about is when the Fed really *does* start seriously tapering and raising rates. That would start the clock, and mean that another global black swan "event" is right around the corner. By design.

It's interesting to see the plan unfold.  

It seems to me THIS phase is mostly focused on supply chain problems, particularly with food supply.  They had no issue with killing us with an engineered virus, and they are going to starve some of us to death next.  The most interesting part is the worldwide UREA shortage being created by China (of course).

This is a chemical which has an underestimated importance.  Who knew the world would run on pig piss?  But it does.  It is a primary ingredient in fertilizer, and ALL modern diesel engines require it to run.  It is not a requirement, in that the engine needs it.  But the engines all now have systems built in that will either shut off the operation altogether, or seriously govern the speed when it is missing.

So this attack has a 2 pronged effect.  It will make food harder/more expensive to produce.  And it will make the delivery of all goods also harder and/or more expensive.  So food production AND supply chains are going to shut down to some extent.  And people will die.

We are JUST beginning to see the first effects of this attack.  But I think it's going to get worse.

I personally drive a little 4 cyl diesel truck.  I bought myself 20 gallons of DEF a little while back when I realized this attack was coming.  So I will be good, for several years... probably overdoing it, but it will at least give western pig farmers the time needed to build the systems needed to produce this ourselves.

I have a slightly different take on this.

Yes urea can be sourced from animal products but it is usually synthesized, the process takes a huge amount of energy. From the production of the ammonia which is usually made from hydrogen processed from natural gas or LPG and reacted with nitrogen ( you may remember the Haber- Bosch process from high school chemistry) and then reacting the ammonia with carbon dioxide to produce urea.

Recently the cost of natural gas and energy in general has seen a huge increase.
Leading to the highest price I have ever seen for fertilizer, Nitrogen (urea) in particular. Almost double last years price.
If farmers use less nitrogen due to increased cost, crop yields will fall and food prices will rise affecting everyone but those in third world countries most as a far higher proportion of their income is spent on food than in the developed countries.

The cause of huge increases in the price of energy is deliberate and due to the insane pace of shutting down traditional carbon electricity generation before alternative sources are fully in place. And the pressure to shut coal mines and oil wells for the misguided climate agenda movement.
This is at best could be described as an oversight by our great political leaders or a deliberate attempt to use starvation and poverty to subdue the worlds population ahead of the great reset. (couldn't possibly be connected to the onward march of Marxism promoted by our own progressives and others worldwide)

I never understood the purpose of the climate hoax, not that the world is getting warmer (it has been since the last ice age) and that it's progress has been sped up by human activity but the predicted outcomes of doom and horror centuries into the future. Supposedly caused by a 2.0C increase in temperature. Absolute zero is -273C - 0 degrees Kelvin, if average world temp is 15.0C then we are at 288 Kelvin so even a 3 degree increase is just 1% more heat energy and this is supposedly going to catastrophically destroy the world. WTF I do not believe this.

So the climate hoax has everything to do with controlling people through fear and it is working, especially on young people who's anxiety levels about so called climate change are making them ill. This allows governments to bring in ever increasing draconian measures to control their populations. Increased energy prices to fuel inflation, increased money supply to add fuel to the inflation fire and people being softened up through the resulting poverty inflation brings.
Couple this with the Anthony Fauci backed research on Corona Virus at Wuhan institute of Virology, the experiments (to modify virus to be able to infect human cells) were not allowed to be conducted in USA labs, so were outsourced to Wuhan along with $millions of grants to upgrade their bio-security there. This is likely to be a deliberate release of a virus given the level of bio-security at Wuhan. Which now has the entire world in the grips of yet more fear. The time has never been better for those with totalitarian visions to strike.


There is a reason the communist China banned Bitcoin and that progressives like Sen Elizabeth (marxist) Warren would like to see it banned. Is that it can play a great part in thwarting their ambitions for a world wide (nightmare) communist state by giving power to those who would oppose such a plan.

(The shit that revolves around in your head when you are driving a tractor)

[1713581235]

1713581235

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

I never understood the purpose of the climate hoax, not that the world is getting warmer (it has been since the last ice age) and that it's progress has been sped up by human activity but the predicted outcomes of doom and horror centuries into the future. Supposedly caused by a 2.0C increase in temperature. Absolute zero is -273C - 0 degrees Kelvin, if average world temp is 15.0C then we are at 288 Kelvin so even a 3 degree increase is just 1% more heat energy and this is supposedly going to catastrophically destroy the world. WTF I do not believe this.

id rather look at the temperature range that more or less supports life here on earth. that being between the freezing and (a bit less than) the boiling point of water (granted at sea level) rather than kelvins full range using absolute zero as a starting point. so call it, say (very broadly as its SOMA), 0 to 70 celsius? so 3*C is 3/70 so around 4% and 2*C is 2/70 so around 3%

3-4% seems pretty noticeable.

anyway i tend to agree its a bit overblown.. solar activity goes in long cycles and arent we in a solar warming period now?

unsure as im pretty stoned.

[cAPSLOCK]

I have a slightly different take on this.

Yes urea can be sourced from animal products but it is usually synthesized, the process takes a huge amount of energy. From the production of the ammonia which is usually made from hydrogen processed from natural gas or LPG and reacted with nitrogen ( you may remember the Haber- Bosch process from high school chemistry) and then reacting the ammonia with carbon dioxide to produce urea.

Recently the cost of natural gas and energy in general has seen a huge increase.
Leading to the highest price I have ever seen for fertilizer, Nitrogen (urea) in particular. Almost double last years price.
If farmers use less nitrogen due to increased cost, crop yields will fall and food prices will rise affecting everyone but those in third world countries most as a far higher proportion of their income is spent on food than in the developed countries.

The cause of huge increases in the price of energy is deliberate and due to the insane pace of shutting down traditional carbon electricity generation before alternative sources are fully in place. And the pressure to shut coal mines and oil wells for the misguided climate agenda movement.
This is at best could be described as an oversight by our great political leaders or a deliberate attempt to use starvation and poverty to subdue the worlds population ahead of the great reset. (couldn't possibly be connected to the onward march of Marxism promoted by our own progressives and others worldwide)

I never understood the purpose of the climate hoax, not that the world is getting warmer (it has been since the last ice age) and that it's progress has been sped up by human activity but the predicted outcomes of doom and horror centuries into the future. Supposedly caused by a 2.0C increase in temperature. Absolute zero is -273C - 0 degrees Kelvin, if average world temp is 15.0C then we are at 288 Kelvin so even a 3 degree increase is just 1% more heat energy and this is supposedly going to catastrophically destroy the world. WTF I do not believe this.

So the climate hoax has everything to do with controlling people through fear and it is working, especially on young people who's anxiety levels about so called climate change are making them ill. This allows governments to bring in ever increasing draconian measures to control their populations. Increased energy prices to fuel inflation, increased money supply to add fuel to the inflation fire and people being softened up through the resulting poverty inflation brings.
Couple this with the Anthony Fauci backed research on Corona Virus at Wuhan institute of Virology, the experiments (to modify virus to be able to infect human cells) were not allowed to be conducted in USA labs, so were outsourced to Wuhan along with $millions of grants to upgrade their bio-security there. This is likely to be a deliberate release of a virus given the level of bio-security at Wuhan. Which now has the entire world in the grips of yet more fear. The time has never been better for those with totalitarian visions to strike.


There is a reason the communist China banned Bitcoin and that progressives like Sen Elizabeth (marxist) Warren would like to see it banned. Is that it can play a great part in thwarting their ambitions for a world wide (nightmare) communist state by giving power to those who would oppose such a plan.

(The shit that revolves around in your head when you are driving a tractor)

Nice.

Yes, I hope some smart people outside of China are cranking up the production of the factories that can make urea.  AND hopefully these businesses will not be impeded by the people currently controlling most western governments.  The good thing about the US is there will always be a state somewhere that will allow freedom, and support businesses.  There is a reason that Musk is moving his road show to Texas.

I am not a prepper (maybe I should be?) but you better believe I am hoarding a little urea to keep my truck running without having to hack it.  I might even buy a little deionized water to wet it down with and make it last a little longer.

[Farmer Bill]

I never understood the purpose of the climate hoax, not that the world is getting warmer (it has been since the last ice age) and that it's progress has been sped up by human activity but the predicted outcomes of doom and horror centuries into the future. Supposedly caused by a 2.0C increase in temperature. Absolute zero is -273C - 0 degrees Kelvin, if average world temp is 15.0C then we are at 288 Kelvin so even a 3 degree increase is just 1% more heat energy and this is supposedly going to catastrophically destroy the world. WTF I do not believe this.

id rather look at the temperature range that more or less supports life here on earth. that being between the freezing and (a bit less than) the boiling point of water (granted at sea level) rather than kelvins full range using absolute zero as a starting point. so call it, say (very broadly as its SOMA), 0 to 70 celsius? so 3*C is 3/70 so around 4% and 2*C is 2/70 so around 3%

3-4% seems pretty noticeable.

anyway i tend to agree its a bit overblown.. solar activity goes in long cycles and arent we in a solar warming period now?

unsure as im pretty stoned.

Have another smoke and think about it.

[Farmer Bill]

I have a slightly different take on this.

Yes urea can be sourced from animal products but it is usually synthesized, the process takes a huge amount of energy. From the production of the ammonia which is usually made from hydrogen processed from natural gas or LPG and reacted with nitrogen ( you may remember the Haber- Bosch process from high school chemistry) and then reacting the ammonia with carbon dioxide to produce urea.

Recently the cost of natural gas and energy in general has seen a huge increase.
Leading to the highest price I have ever seen for fertilizer, Nitrogen (urea) in particular. Almost double last years price.
If farmers use less nitrogen due to increased cost, crop yields will fall and food prices will rise affecting everyone but those in third world countries most as a far higher proportion of their income is spent on food than in the developed countries.

The cause of huge increases in the price of energy is deliberate and due to the insane pace of shutting down traditional carbon electricity generation before alternative sources are fully in place. And the pressure to shut coal mines and oil wells for the misguided climate agenda movement.
This is at best could be described as an oversight by our great political leaders or a deliberate attempt to use starvation and poverty to subdue the worlds population ahead of the great reset. (couldn't possibly be connected to the onward march of Marxism promoted by our own progressives and others worldwide)

I never understood the purpose of the climate hoax, not that the world is getting warmer (it has been since the last ice age) and that it's progress has been sped up by human activity but the predicted outcomes of doom and horror centuries into the future. Supposedly caused by a 2.0C increase in temperature. Absolute zero is -273C - 0 degrees Kelvin, if average world temp is 15.0C then we are at 288 Kelvin so even a 3 degree increase is just 1% more heat energy and this is supposedly going to catastrophically destroy the world. WTF I do not believe this.

So the climate hoax has everything to do with controlling people through fear and it is working, especially on young people who's anxiety levels about so called climate change are making them ill. This allows governments to bring in ever increasing draconian measures to control their populations. Increased energy prices to fuel inflation, increased money supply to add fuel to the inflation fire and people being softened up through the resulting poverty inflation brings.
Couple this with the Anthony Fauci backed research on Corona Virus at Wuhan institute of Virology, the experiments (to modify virus to be able to infect human cells) were not allowed to be conducted in USA labs, so were outsourced to Wuhan along with $millions of grants to upgrade their bio-security there. This is likely to be a deliberate release of a virus given the level of bio-security at Wuhan. Which now has the entire world in the grips of yet more fear. The time has never been better for those with totalitarian visions to strike.


There is a reason the communist China banned Bitcoin and that progressives like Sen Elizabeth (marxist) Warren would like to see it banned. Is that it can play a great part in thwarting their ambitions for a world wide (nightmare) communist state by giving power to those who would oppose such a plan.

(The shit that revolves around in your head when you are driving a tractor)

Nice.

Yes, I hope some smart people outside of China are cranking up the production of the factories that can make urea.  AND hopefully these businesses will not be impeded by the people currently controlling most western governments.  The good thing about the US is there will always be a state somewhere that will allow freedom, and support businesses.  There is a reason that Musk is moving his road show to Texas.

I am not a prepper (maybe I should be?) but you better believe I am hoarding a little urea to keep my truck running without having to hack it.  I might even buy a little deionized water to wet it down with and make it last a little longer.

There is no harm in having a few months food, fuel and importantly water, or the ability to produce clean drinking water, at hand.

My grandmother kept 6 months food supply in case of emergency, this was not considered as unusual or being a prepper, but just as insurance against tough times. For many today those tough times may not be end of the world scenarios but just being made redundant or suffering a period of poor health. Witness the lines at foodbanks of those who did not set aside anything when times were good. It does make me scratch my head when I see people burning gas by driving their SUV to the foodbank. Can afford gas but not food?
My grandfather always had 2 years supply of animal fodder (hay) stored, in case of a total crop failure in one year, it can happen in a drought year. Few farmers do this now but it adds to resilience and self reliance, qualities certainly missing amongst many in the general population today. 

[BitcoinBunny]

Poor Ronald.   
One minute you are luring children into restaurants dressed like a clown like some kind of walking billboard.
The next, you are taking it up the ass from the CEO himself to keep him happy.

 

There is no dignity in that job.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

I never understood the purpose of the climate hoax, not that the world is getting warmer (it has been since the last ice age) and that it's progress has been sped up by human activity but the predicted outcomes of doom and horror centuries into the future. Supposedly caused by a 2.0C increase in temperature. Absolute zero is -273C - 0 degrees Kelvin, if average world temp is 15.0C then we are at 288 Kelvin so even a 3 degree increase is just 1% more heat energy and this is supposedly going to catastrophically destroy the world. WTF I do not believe this.

id rather look at the temperature range that more or less supports life here on earth. that being between the freezing and (a bit less than) the boiling point of water (granted at sea level) rather than kelvins full range using absolute zero as a starting point. so call it, say (very broadly as its SOMA), 0 to 70 celsius? so 3*C is 3/70 so around 4% and 2*C is 2/70 so around 3%

3-4% seems pretty noticeable.

anyway i tend to agree its a bit overblown.. solar activity goes in long cycles and arent we in a solar warming period now?

unsure as im pretty stoned.

Have another smoke and think about it.

*puffpuffpass* done

let me rephrase it a bit.. the kelvin range is for physics mainly. and my 0-70*C should be -20*C to 50ish*C, i forgot to slide the 70*C range down.. was easier to do the math in my head. anyway..

so for a better number, how low a temp is survivable for humans and the ecosystem that humans need to survive? and then the highest.

for example how low and how high a temp can your crops and livestock survive long term, ie for generations. now how about bacteria and such that are also needed. isnt the freezing point of water considered a hard limit for crops and seasonal variances a bit deal for some crops? some of those crops/lifestock that now can exist at the current highest or lowest temp (the extremes) will not be able to survive if those extremes are moved. that will upset the ecobalance (is that a word?). there will be a new equilibrium reached of course and new species may move into niches that were occupied by those that die off but it could be messy.

but im more stoned now so i may not be able to type or think coherently much longer, if indeed it is even coherent now.

as a farmer you are more knowledgeable about how climate extremes effect your profession and nature so i do bow to your superior knowledge in areas such as this.

[philipma1957]

OT: All this talk in the MSM about the "relief rally" in stonks, and how the market "liked" the hawkish Fed news about tapering and potential 3 rate hikes in 2022.

Lol, what bullshit. The stonk market only likes free money, and more of it. They in fact hate tapering, and really hate higher interest rates. And they could give a shit about inflation.

A bunch of shorts got hammered, that is all.

What everyone should be very worried about is when the Fed really *does* start seriously tapering and raising rates. That would start the clock, and mean that another global black swan "event" is right around the corner. By design.

It's interesting to see the plan unfold.  

It seems to me THIS phase is mostly focused on supply chain problems, particularly with food supply.  They had no issue with killing us with an engineered virus, and they are going to starve some of us to death next.  The most interesting part is the worldwide UREA shortage being created by China (of course).

This is a chemical which has an underestimated importance.  Who knew the world would run on pig piss?  But it does.  It is a primary ingredient in fertilizer, and ALL modern diesel engines require it to run.  It is not a requirement, in that the engine needs it.  But the engines all now have systems built in that will either shut off the operation altogether, or seriously govern the speed when it is missing.

So this attack has a 2 pronged effect.  It will make food harder/more expensive to produce.  And it will make the delivery of all goods also harder and/or more expensive.  So food production AND supply chains are going to shut down to some extent.  And people will die.

We are JUST beginning to see the first effects of this attack.  But I think it's going to get worse.

I personally drive a little 4 cyl diesel truck.  I bought myself 20 gallons of DEF a little while back when I realized this attack was coming.  So I will be good, for several years... probably overdoing it, but it will at least give western pig farmers the time needed to build the systems needed to produce this ourselves.

I have a slightly different take on this.

Yes urea can be sourced from animal products but it is usually synthesized, the process takes a huge amount of energy. From the production of the ammonia which is usually made from hydrogen processed from natural gas or LPG and reacted with nitrogen ( you may remember the Haber- Bosch process from high school chemistry) and then reacting the ammonia with carbon dioxide to produce urea.

Recently the cost of natural gas and energy in general has seen a huge increase.
Leading to the highest price I have ever seen for fertilizer, Nitrogen (urea) in particular. Almost double last years price.
If farmers use less nitrogen due to increased cost, crop yields will fall and food prices will rise affecting everyone but those in third world countries most as a far higher proportion of their income is spent on food than in the developed countries.

The cause of huge increases in the price of energy is deliberate and due to the insane pace of shutting down traditional carbon electricity generation before alternative sources are fully in place. And the pressure to shut coal mines and oil wells for the misguided climate agenda movement.
This is at best could be described as an oversight by our great political leaders or a deliberate attempt to use starvation and poverty to subdue the worlds population ahead of the great reset. (couldn't possibly be connected to the onward march of Marxism promoted by our own progressives and others worldwide)

I never understood the purpose of the climate hoax, not that the world is getting warmer (it has been since the last ice age) and that it's progress has been sped up by human activity but the predicted outcomes of doom and horror centuries into the future. Supposedly caused by a 2.0C increase in temperature. Absolute zero is -273C - 0 degrees Kelvin, if average world temp is 15.0C then we are at 288 Kelvin so even a 3 degree increase is just 1% more heat energy and this is supposedly going to catastrophically destroy the world. WTF I do not believe this.

So the climate hoax has everything to do with controlling people through fear and it is working, especially on young people who's anxiety levels about so called climate change are making them ill. This allows governments to bring in ever increasing draconian measures to control their populations. Increased energy prices to fuel inflation, increased money supply to add fuel to the inflation fire and people being softened up through the resulting poverty inflation brings.
Couple this with the Anthony Fauci backed research on Corona Virus at Wuhan institute of Virology, the experiments (to modify virus to be able to infect human cells) were not allowed to be conducted in USA labs, so were outsourced to Wuhan along with $millions of grants to upgrade their bio-security there. This is likely to be a deliberate release of a virus given the level of bio-security at Wuhan. Which now has the entire world in the grips of yet more fear. The time has never been better for those with totalitarian visions to strike.


There is a reason the communist China banned Bitcoin and that progressives like Sen Elizabeth (marxist) Warren would like to see it banned. Is that it can play a great part in thwarting their ambitions for a world wide (nightmare) communist state by giving power to those who would oppose such a plan.

(The shit that revolves around in your head when you are driving a tractor)

Well the plus side of being 64 and having had all your kids die via miscarriage is global warming will very likley not be an issu for me as I will escape it via being dead in 20-30 years.

If you are under 50 with kids and grandkids I would guess it is an issue or should be an issue.

I am a 1 from the right and 1 from the left type guy which means I usually get both sides pissed at me.

Do I think global warming will happen and fuck humans bigly by 2100 yes I do.

Do I worry about it nope not at all. As my exit via normal biology 🧬 is a given.

I am already dead if global warming happens and fucks the nonbelievers.
I am already dead 💀  if they are right and it does not happen

[BitcoinBunny]

....

Well the plus side of being 64 and having had all your kids die via miscarriage.....

I joke around on the forum mostly but I'm sorry to hear this.

[philipma1957]

....

Well the plus side of being 64 and having had all your kids die via miscarriage.....

I joke around on the forum mostly but I'm sorry to hear this.

Well ya have to cope with it one way or the other.

So Even though I think global warming is going to happen and really fuck humans I am pretty much I don’t give a shit and have no fear about it.

I still try to increase the solar footprint of NJ and soon PA since I think it is better to do than not do. I also figured out a way with my partners great help  to do it using BTC. So if I am wrong about global warming and it does not really fuck shit up wel will still have lots of solar.

and if global warming is bad our solar is good for the planet.

win win works for me.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

I am not a prepper (maybe I should be?) but you better believe I am hoarding a little urea to keep my truck running without having to hack it.  I might even buy a little deionized water to wet it down with and make it last a little longer.

How hard is it to hack it?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

I don't think the price wants to go down but someone has a lot of ammo. Hopefully they'll run out soon.

[philipma1957]

I don't think the price wants to go down but someone has a lot of ammo. Hopefully they'll run out soon.

here's hoping it it turns into blanks soon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

I don't think the price wants to go down but someone has a lot of ammo. Hopefully they'll run out soon.

Short term, we are in a clear downtrend, midterm-about flat, longer term-still uptrend.
In this view btc would flatten up on the short term chart before surging higher and ultimately produce a longer cycle, terminating somewhere in Q1-Q2 2022.

An alternative, worse view, would be that we are in a longer term flat similar to the one we saw in 2018 at around 6k.
This view would suggest that we would stay relatively flat for a while before a sharp plunge, which would start the long term bull.

Personally, my opinion is neither of the two views above.

To re-iterate, I think that we bottomed for this cycle in June and the secondary top was a simple reaction to a premature top (in April) caused by China shenanigans.
Without China, we were about to go exponential in April (all signs were there) and should have finished the cycle by May or June at the latest.
Instead, we got a double hump with bull energy spent between two peaks instead of one.
Right now-we are early in the NEXT cycle, imho.
Flat city.

[JayJuanGee]

I don't think the price wants to go down but someone has a lot of ammo. Hopefully they'll run out soon.

Hard to know for sure if they have a lot of ammo (in the official sense); and especially if they might not need to buy any BTC to put DOWNity pressures on the BTC price.. so if they are able to use dollars to put DOWNity pressures, then it seems that some entities might have endless amounts of dollars.. but it would also be possible that they could end up getting in trouble if the price moves against them in very meaningful ways..

Sure, I don't know how it would be played exactly when financial instruments are used in order to have safeguards from getting reckt. not  that any of us HODLers and those of us actually buying the underlying would have any sympathy for folks to get reckt who might not even be buying the underlying.

I don't think the price wants to go down but someone has a lot of ammo. Hopefully they'll run out soon.

Short term, we are in a clear downtrend, midterm-about flat, longer term-still uptrend.
In this view btc would flatten up on the short term chart before surging higher and ultimately produce a longer cycle, terminating somewhere in Q1-Q2 2022.

An alternative, worse view, would be that we are in a longer term flat similar to the one we saw in 2018 at around 6k.
This view would suggest that we would stay relatively flat for a while before a sharp plunge, which would start the long term bull.

Personally, my opinion is neither of the two views above.

To re-iterate, I think that we bottomed for this cycle in June and the secondary top was a simple reaction to a premature top (in April) caused by China shenanigans.
Without China, we were about to go exponential in April (all signs were there) and should have finished the cycle by May or June at the latest.
Instead, we got a double hump with bull energy spent between two peaks instead of one.
Right now-we are early in the NEXT cycle, imho.
Flat city.

Oh gawd.. early in the next cycle.. It's not completely ridiculous but bordering upon it.  #nohomo