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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336417 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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December 20, 2021, 02:01:28 PM


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Richy_T
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December 20, 2021, 02:45:49 PM

There are images being spread out on the internet to create some kind of fake demotivational spirit among the residents to avoid vaccines like this image :




That's a fear based pro-vaccine message just FWIW. Think about it.
Richy_T
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December 20, 2021, 02:48:51 PM

Yeah, but a full floor (or even 2 or 4 floors) condo isn't exactly a crash pad ! Unless you crash with an entourage (or a harem).

You don't?

Not yet. Maybe when 1 BTC = 1 million dollars :d

Pro-tip: timeshare.

You can't own the keys to that, so I'm not interested.

I mean the entourage. No point paying them to sit around when you're busy with other stuff.
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December 20, 2021, 02:52:40 PM

Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?

I don’t know does it even mean?

Paid off the loan on his main car.
ChartBuddy
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December 20, 2021, 03:01:37 PM


Explanation
DaRude
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In order to dump coins one must have coins


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December 20, 2021, 03:02:30 PM

It sucks that anti-vaxxers's choice is effecting (sic) everyone around them and not just themselves

Dude. Holy fucking shit... Stahp. Plz.

Well that's the problem. Covid-19 keeps on trucking so people keep on posting.

When I get some time I will post a photo of myself to show my rainbow glasses and my Hodl t-sweater along with a nuts cap a bandanna thanks to covid I can walk into a bank looking like that.

It is one of the few nice things about covid-19 you can say has happened.

To all take it back  step remember thanks to biology none of us will be alive in 2121 so lets stop fighting over mask no mask and or vax no vax. Either way you will be dead in 2121

THIS!

Definitely a blow to face recognition. Everyone should embrace any chance they get to fuck with the big brother/surveillance regimes.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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December 20, 2021, 03:05:59 PM

Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?

I don’t know does it even mean?

means it needs repairs every day that cost more than book value of the vehicle? ive owned winter beater vehicles like that. i didnt even bother changing the oil on many of my cars because i knew it would fall apart way before the engine would die. and i was pretty surprised how long some engines lasted on sludge (225 cid slant six, damn things are almost unkillable. i had a few)
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December 20, 2021, 03:09:43 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (9), xhomerx10 (1)

shitty ta with a shitty flag on a shitty looking chart 

Santa: HO HO HO..and what do you want for Christmas little man?

Little Johnny: Please dump it sub $30k and lower over the next bear market cycle so I can buy the dip.

Santa:  ....

merry fucking hoho you hoes


#dyor

D

#stronghands
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December 20, 2021, 03:12:14 PM

There are images being spread out on the internet to create some kind of fake demotivational spirit among the residents to avoid vaccines like this image :




Haha witty ad.  Grin
serveria.com
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December 20, 2021, 03:18:43 PM

Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?

I don’t know does it even mean?

means it needs repairs every day that cost more than book value of the vehicle? ive owned vehicles like that. i didnt even bother changing the oil on many of my cars because i knew it would fall apart way before the engine would die. and i was pretty surprised how long some engines lasted on sludge (225 cid slant six, damn things are almost unkillable. i had a few)

I once had a Mazda oh man that thing did last. It was old so I stopped changing oil eventually but the goddamn thing ran and ran and ran. It did some 100k miles and then died but if my memory serves me well it wasn't engine related failure...  Cool
OutOfMemory
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December 20, 2021, 03:52:59 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

shitty ta with a shitty flag on a shitty looking chart 

Santa: HO HO HO..and what do you want for Christmas little man?

Little Johnny: Please dump it sub $30k and lower over the next bear market cycle so I can buy the dip.

Santa:  ....

merry fucking hoho you hoes


#dyor

D

#stronghands

Those dumps are getting smaller, volume decreasing...
Can't be too long until we're bottoming out. Then maybe a final little capitulation dump, and we are where we were in 2019, just at least 10 times higher.
2023 might get unexpectedly interesting, in a positive way  Grin

vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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December 20, 2021, 03:57:45 PM
Last edit: December 20, 2021, 04:33:20 PM by vapourminer
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), psycodad (1)

When I get some time I will post a photo of myself to show my rainbow glasses and my Hodl t-sweater along with a nuts cap a bandanna thanks to covid I can walk into a bank looking like that.

It is one of the few nice things about covid-19 you can say has happened.

THIS!

Definitely a blow to face recognition. Everyone should embrace any chance they get to fuck with the big brother/surveillance regimes.

gait analysis: hold my beer

edit.. hang on lemme find a another link

ok
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK557684/
ChartBuddy
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December 20, 2021, 04:01:29 PM


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December 20, 2021, 04:21:19 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

shitty ta with a shitty flag on a shitty looking chart 

Santa: HO HO HO..and what do you want for Christmas little man?

Little Johnny: Please dump it sub $30k and lower over the next bear market cycle so I can buy the dip.

Santa:  ....

merry fucking hoho you hoes


#dyor

D

#stronghands

Those dumps are getting smaller, volume decreasing...
Can't be too long until we're bottoming out. Then maybe a final little capitulation dump, and we are where we were in 2019, just at least 10 times higher.
20232022 might get unexpectedly interesting, in a positive way  Grin


2023? You were trying to say 2022? FTFY  Cool
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December 20, 2021, 04:22:03 PM
Last edit: December 20, 2021, 04:44:12 PM by Torque
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1)

The MSM: "The stock market is falling because of Omicron fears!"

Reality: The stonk market is falling because Congress did not approve another $2T free money package for the wealthy elites to continue buying up more stonks.

Look over here, not over there. truth.gif

Also other reason, this:
https://kvia.com/news/2021/12/20/china-cuts-key-interest-rate-for-the-first-time-in-20-months/

China showing more cracks.
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December 20, 2021, 05:01:28 PM


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December 20, 2021, 05:05:55 PM
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For all dutchies: https://rabobank.jobs/nl/vacature/blockchain-cryptocurrency-specialist-senior/JR_00057127/

Edit: love the Rabobank. Went there in March 2020 for an extra mortgage to buy btc. They thought that was a good idea and gave it to me.
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December 20, 2021, 05:30:36 PM
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Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?

I don’t know does it even mean?

means it needs repairs every day that cost more than book value of the vehicle? ive owned winter beater vehicles like that. i didnt even bother changing the oil on many of my cars because i knew it would fall apart way before the engine would die. and i was pretty surprised how long some engines lasted on sludge (225 cid slant six, damn things are almost unkillable. i had a few)

322k miles on my dodge dart slant six 1977
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Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


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December 20, 2021, 05:34:09 PM
Last edit: December 20, 2021, 06:09:04 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1), shahzadafzal (1)


Well yeah.. does not seem like a bad use of coins, overall... and sure there are a lot of discretionary aspects in terms of figuring out at what point to shave off around 26% of your coins (9/35).... in order to satisfy various fiat obligations and maybe even to diversify some of your value into profits (and he is not even seeming to completely be referring to consumption or luxury goods) is that you LFC?   hahahahaha  

Another aspect is merely being in profits gives quite a few options.. because let's just say cryptorich13 was not so fortunate to get all of his coins or even at the average (median) of the difference between $1,200 and $4k... and so even if we might suggest some kind of average price per BTC at about $3k per BTC, the options come into play with 18.3x in profits ($55k/$3k).  

Anyhow, 35 BTC acquired in 2017 is not even a bad time horizon in terms of letting at least a whole cycle of BTC price performance play out, and sure, he might never be able to get those 9 BTC back or anything close to that if he just stays in a kind of DCA or buying on dips mode.. perhaps?  perhaps?  Anyhow, we can estimate that he had spent around $105k ($3k x 35 BTC) to purchase those 35 BTC, and he had cashed out around $495k. ($55k x 9 BTC).. and even at today's prices, he still has around $1.2 million in value ($46k x 26 BTC).  

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

As far as getting back the coins.. maybe he will be able to and maybe he won't.  I doubt that it hurts to monitor his ongoing portfolio value and maybe just to keep it in more of a preservation and accumulation mode in the coming years, or maybe just a minimum shaving of value mode.. again, with around 18.3x of profits (currently only 15.3x in profits), the guy continues to have varying degrees of profitable options in terms of BTC portfolio management.... and the main questions likely revolve around how much profits, loss of opportunity costs or principle preservation...

So maybe for me, instead of engaging in a kind of lump sum behavior of shaving off 25% all at once, more likely I would have considered a kind of sensible capital preservation liquidation methodology under some kind of formula that I might accept.. and sure, maybe we could have ended up at similar kinds of shavings.. though ballparkedly I am thinking that I probably would not have shaved more than 12%.. which would have been around half of the amount that the guy did.. and that would have been to use the spot price and then to say that I am able to shave off 4% per year.. which then gets me to 12% if i am frontloading the amount based on concerns about the BTC price over the next 3 years to be returning to that particular price...

Another thing is my last couple of years (developed) desire to use the 208-week moving average for the calculation of BTC portfolio value rather than spot price, and when I use the 208-week moving average as my calculating amount, I authorize myself up to 12% per year based on that 208-week MA price (so long as the spot price is at least quite a bit above that 12% higher than the 208-week moving average), even though I would still have some reservations in shaving off 3 years worth of my allocated amount, but I still believe that would get me to similar results in terms of what is going on now in the BTC price as compared with the 208-week moving average... so the current 208-week moving average is about $18.3k, so if I multiply that price by my hypothetical 35 BTC, then that gives me a portfolio value of $640,500, so I had already speculated that I would have been able to shave off 12% per year (which would be around $77k), so then the question would be whether to front load that shaving off (and limit myself from future shavings) or not and to be able to withdraw up to $231k ($77k x 3 years), and at the price of $55k that would have allowed me to cash out 4.2 BTC if I felt that there were a need to front load my cashing out. By the way, $55k is a spot price that is more than 3x higher than the 208-week moving average, so I should not be worried about my 12% shavings based on the spot price being way the hell higher than my measuring stick of the 208-week MA.

Back to the question of authorizing myself to cash out 3 years worth of BTC liquidation, there would have to be some level of confidence in my own short to medium views of the BTC price that the BTC may well not return to $55k for 3 years, which surely seems like a stretch to imagine that kind of scenario (even if such a scenario would be possible) - especially since we had already had a 56% price correction down to $28.6k in May/June/July.  And, we just recently had a December 3 - 39% correction down to $41,967.. and of course, with a posturing (presumably more than a couple of weeks after cryptorich13 having had sold) cryptorich13 had actually sold at $55k before our December 3 dip down to $41,967... so sometimes there can be some seeming gloating when guys assert that they sold at a price that is higher than our current seemingly stagnant price.  

For me the amount of BTC that I would authorize myself to sell would have to have some kind of connection to how strongly I believe that I might get stuck out of being able to sell BTC at any such chosen sell price, so in this case that would be $55k, and so in that regard, if there seems to be expectations that such non-return of BTC to the spot price of $55k could last for 1 or 2 years, then I would authorize my sale based on that period of time, so accordingly, I would not have been able to sell up to 4.2BTC because that would have been a calculation for 3 years, and I cannot bring myself to conclude that we are not returning to $55k or higher in the next 3 years. In other words, based on my view of the probably likely longest period of a correction that does not return to $55k, I would have ONLY been able to authorized myself a maximum of 1-2 years of selling, and that would have been to be able to sell the value of between $77k and $154k (which would have been 1.4 BTC to 2.8 BTC).. so that is where I stand in terms of my considerations of shaving authorizations based on recent BTC price actions.  

Even after having asserted that I would have not shaven off so much BTC as cryptorich13 had done, and also asserted that I am not against the idea of shaving even decent amounts of BTC from time to time, I can still accept that these choices about how much to shave and when are discretionary matters and still a more aggressive strategy like cryptorich13 could end out playing out better than what I would consider to be my own more conservative BTC portfolio management approach.
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December 20, 2021, 05:42:45 PM
Last edit: December 20, 2021, 07:48:17 PM by Torque
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Richy_T (1)

OT: Need more proof that we live in an ever-deflating world where zombie corporations are being propped up with free money, and then with acquisitions?

Take a look at Cerner, Oracle's latest acquisition. The are buying Cerner for $28.3 billion, the most Oracle as ever spent to acquire another company:

Oracle to buy medical records company Cerner in its biggest acquisition ever
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/20/oracle-to-buy-medical-records-company-cerner.html

Now you would think that Oracle is buying them because they are profitable? Nope.

Cerner's financials say that their Total Debt to Equity ratio (FY) (%) = 29.81.

Which means that out of that $28.3B equity valuation, they have $8.3B in total debt outstanding. If you believe the valuation estimate, that's still nearly a third of the company that is all debt! And over the past 4 years, their accumulating debt had been growing at a much faster rates than their profits. Which means they were on track to eventually going belly up.

Is it any wonder that M&A is at an all time high?

Quote
It comes amid a surge in global mergers and acquisition activity. M&A topped $5 trillion for the first time ever in 2021, led by technology and health care, according to a report cited by Reuters.
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