Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[lightfoot]

These dumb-ass 5% bitcoin sales are annoying: It's not worth cashing in coin to buy back lower as the ~21% Capital gains tax will wipe out any profit.

Oi.

IOW: Capital Gains Tax makes it so that selling to rebuy lower is a losing move unless the after-sale dip is more than the CGT rate. Not limited to bitcoin: it's the same with stonks or any other financial asset.

unless it is long term rate sale.

...and, first $80,800 in long term cap gains are FREE (if you are married).

Not if your income (the stuff you get for being a wage slave) exceeds 80k. That is like the crappiest phase out ever. Unless I am wrong about that.

[1713465722]

1713465722

[Biodom]

The year end seems to be quite annoying, isn't it?

2021 was not a great year by many occurrences:

1. A skimpy bull run despite all rah-rah-rah expectations. We basically did slightly better than double in four years; pretty good by stock market standards, quite low compared to what was expected.
2. Viral persistence. How many waves we gonna get?
3. Being totally tired of #2. Reinfection rises in the people I know.
4. The rise and rise of everyday rudeness...especially on our "autobahns".

Prediction:

Bitcoin is incompatible with your typical political/investor operator psyche.
As such, the path forward would be slower and more tenuous than I expected.
It is entirely possible that 'they' would try to control the narrative by pushing some solutions that are more easily controlled: it could be E-coin or S-coin or some other shitcoin (heck, it might even be xerp, once it settles), but it ain't going to be bitcoin as they cannot direct it to their benefit.

TL;DR Slow bitcoin in 2022, politicos heavily promoting a few shitcoins (probably the most corrupt ones). Fiat stock market slightly down, maybe 5-7%.

[Biodom]

These dumb-ass 5% bitcoin sales are annoying: It's not worth cashing in coin to buy back lower as the ~21% Capital gains tax will wipe out any profit.

Oi.

IOW: Capital Gains Tax makes it so that selling to rebuy lower is a losing move unless the after-sale dip is more than the CGT rate. Not limited to bitcoin: it's the same with stonks or any other financial asset.

unless it is long term rate sale.

...and, first $80,800 in long term cap gains are FREE (if you are married).

Not if your income (the stuff you get for being a wage slave) exceeds 80k. That is like the crappiest phase out ever. Unless I am wrong about that.

afaiu, LONG term cap gains are different from income, but who knows.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp

Your ordinary income is taxed first, at its higher relative tax rates, and long-term capital gains and dividends are taxed second, at their lower rates.
So, long-term capital gains can't push your ordinary income into a higher tax bracket, but they may push your capital gains rate into a higher tax bracket.

https://erwealth.com/podcastblog/will-capital-gains-push-me-into-a-higher-tax-bracket

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

 Otherwise, $100K-150K for no blow-off top, simply reaching the logarithmic growth upper band and reversing.

I don't really have any major problem with this kind of scenario ending up playing out because it is still very profitable for me, personally.

One of my problems with the considering of such scenario to be reasonable remains that it just does not seem to reflect bitcoin's history very well, and it does not even seem to fit very well into a kind of "smoothing of tops" kind of depiction of bitcoin as a maturing asset class... and maybe that ends up being part of the rub (the crux of it) that I have with these kinds of smoothing top depictions of bitcoin in that there seems to be some kind of built presumption that bitcoin is sufficiently maturing as an asset class in order to really meaningfully be considered in that kind of a way.. which I really have some difficulties accepting that as a very likely scenario (even though I understand and appreciate that any kind of scenario could end up playing out, even a kind of $100k to $150k whimpy top scenario as does seem to be amongst your favorites, even if you are reluctant to admit it... hahahahahahaha       ).

I'm not suggesting that closing the year below $48K would leave to sub $40K, but would likely be a catalyst for some sub $46K prices to return, like $44K and $42K I imagine.

Surely we have each expressed our views on this.  I don't have anything further that I want to add regarding my earlier assertions.  Maybe for you it matters more in terms of your attempts to trade when you see what you believe to be some kind of convincing tradable pattern, and for me, it's a big so what, in terms of my not changing my orders either way...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

Well not much happening on the BTC front. Just the same like a whore's panties up and down of late.


Saw Spiderman - No Way Home this evening.

What an overhyped load of tosh. Bit sad the general audience buys into this dumb garbage at this rate. Honestly they could make a one minute trailer with Robert Downey Jr. coming onto the screen and saying "I'm Iron Man", do a loud fart and still get cheered on.

This dumb movie was entertaining in places to be fair but the heroes constantly behave like complete selfish and utter morons.

Could have been much better I reckon.
Couple of nice surprises but just a dumb self inflicted carry on mostly just doesn't seem to raise the stakes much.
Never understood why they make Zendaya look so plain in these films. She seems quite pretty elsewhere.

6/10

Awful having to wear masks again in the cinema in the UK.
Won't bother again until this rule disappears unless there is something unmissable on which doesn't happen often I guess.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Awful having to wear masks again in the cinema in the UK.
Won't bother again until this rule disappears unless there is something unmissable on which doesn't happen often I guess.

Dude, buy a sunflower lanyard. You can be exempt from wearing a mask. I’ve been doing it for ages.
They’re less thsn £5.
No mask & nobody will ask you why


https://hiddendisabilitiesstore.com/shop/sunflower-lanyards.html


My disability is that I am a degenerate OG bitcoiner.

[BitcoinBunny]

Awful having to wear masks again in the cinema in the UK.
Won't bother again until this rule disappears unless there is something unmissable on which doesn't happen often I guess.

Dude, buy a sunflower lanyard. You can be exempt from wearing a mask. I’ve been doing it for ages.
They’re less thsn £5.
No mask & nobody will ask you why


https://hiddendisabilitiesstore.com/shop/sunflower-lanyards.html


My disability is that I am a degenerate OG bitcoiner.

Yeah it's a good point.
I don't think any of that mask shit makes any difference when you are in a cinema for hours anyway.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Yeah it's a good point.
I don't think any of that mask shit makes any difference when you are in a cinema for hours anyway.

We’re 2 years in now & it still spreads like wild fire. It’s clear masks do very little by now.
People will be on their 4th jabs soon but we still have restrictions. I’ve been done with this bull shit for a long time now.

[Hueristic]

[Syke]

Congrats for ending 2021 with the highest number of cases of covid-19. Your anti-vax anti-mask is working well!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Turducken.

[Arriemoller]

Congrats for ending 2021 with the highest number of cases of covid-19. Your anti-vax anti-mask is working well!

Well, it doesn't really matter if you get it, if it doesn't make you seriously ill.



Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

[Biodom]

Turducken.

popularized by Madden, RIP.

as far as other stuff...once you get it, it is your case, stats are mostly irrelevant...have wife's close relative in intense care rn (strain unknown), had to get oxygen as the "number" was getting to 83. Do we care about the overall stats? Of course, not, in this case, just about the particular individual situation. In a large scheme of things, this is relevant, of course.

[suchmoon]

afaiu, LONG term cap gains are different from income, but who knows.

In the US the federal long term cap gain tax rate depends on the total income. It can be 0, 15, or 20%.

Then there are state taxes, somewhere between 3-13%, although there are few states with 0%.

[Syke]

Since you didn't bother to mention what country you were referring to I will do the same.
(see how easy it is to manipulate with graphs and numbers).

Changed my mind, my graph is for Sweden, I assume yours is for the UK since that's where LFC lives.

Kudos for keeping the deaths low. Unfortunately, 1500 Americans are dying from it every day.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

afaiu, LONG term cap gains are different from income, but who knows.

In the US the federal long term cap gain tax rate depends on the total income. It can be 0, 15, or 20%.

Then there are state taxes, somewhere between 3-13%, although there are few states with 0%.

Probably true, but a simplification.

according to the blog post i cited,

Example: You are married, have 200K income and 200K long term cap gains.
Your "regular" combined income is taxed at 32%, but your longterm cap gains are taxed at 15%.
See the table in here:
https://erwealth.com/podcastblog/will-capital-gains-push-me-into-a-higher-tax-bracket

Capital gains will not cause your ordinary income to be taxed at a higher rate..
So, again, long-term capital gains are taxed at different rates and separately from your ordinary income.

Unless i completely misunderstand their "slang" it appears that you could be taxed differently for reg income and for cap gains.