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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336724 times)
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January 06, 2022, 10:08:41 PM

OT..: from reddit: W--mart "meta"-verse:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/rxlxzp/walmarts_metaverse_looks_sick/
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January 06, 2022, 10:17:22 PM

In my experience, when the prices are falling all around the place, developers wake up from natural bull-market-induced laziness and come up with great new products. Not only ideas and hype, but actual implementations. I for one am looking forward to ETH2 going live, and all the rest of the major milestones to come in 2022.

Keep your spirits high folks Smiley
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January 06, 2022, 11:01:27 PM


Explanation
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January 06, 2022, 11:44:01 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

In my experience, when the prices are falling all around the place, developers wake up from natural bull-market-induced laziness and come up with great new products. Not only ideas and hype, but actual implementations. I for one am looking forward to ETH2 going live, and all the rest of the major milestones to come in 2022.

Keep your spirits high folks Smiley



Wow...that's cool. I didn't know ETH - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology is opening a 2nd campus...
Valuable info, thanks !  Smiley
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January 06, 2022, 11:48:31 PM

Wow...that's cool. I didn't know ETH, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology is opening another campus...
Valuable info, thanks !

Just to be clear I'm talking about ETH2, the next gen evolution of Ethereum that will make it scale like big time! I don't want to say more since you might be familiar with it already, I guess most readers of this thread are, but if you don't, it's worth a few minutes to Google it Smiley

About the ETH, I know we like on the same spinning rock of the milky way, but are you from Switzerland by any chance? Grin

I am developing something right now which will hopefully eventually turn out just great.

Cheers!
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January 06, 2022, 11:51:57 PM

So I'm watching as the price keeps bouncing off the $42.5k support level. When things are going the other way and repeatedly bouncing off a resistance level, it means to sell at that resistance expecting to buy lower because it's very likely to break through and leave you holding less.

There are generally two schools of thought with the repeated tests of support or resistance. The first being the more you test a level the weaker it becomes, the latter being the more you test a level the stronger it becomes. Personally I think the price structure is more relevant to answer this. Is price creating lower highs/lows while doing so, and therefore price is getting weaker, or higher lows/highs with price getting stronger?

I think more relevant in this case, given you talk of DCA, is to ignore the lower time-frames here, as they are not relevant to the longer term trend. Ideally ignore price all together when you DCA, stick to time-based analysis. Price could be up significantly by the end of the week, it could also be lower by next week. Likewise price could be lower by tomorrow and significantly higher by the end of the week.

Am I reading this wrong in thinking I should hold off a bit longer to buy a dippier dip? My DCA isn't due until tomorrow anyway, so kinda asking for support for resisting a reverse FOMO buy. (I have occasionally pulled the trigger on DCA buys a day early beat out a weekend pump) I'm just not used to Downs yet as I'm still a bit new at this.

If your DCA is due tomorrow, not today, then I'd recommend buying tomorrow - because that's when your DCA is due. Rushing in to buy falling knives is always very risky move. This will also help to maintain your disciple with DCA. If you start buying early, you're also likely to be buying late, therefore trying to trade price instead of time. I imagine JJG will otherwise give you all the relevant info on dollar cost averaging...

I am surely of the opinion that if you have either a weekly DCA allowance or even a DCA allowance that is employed every two weeks (something like every paycheck could be every two weeks), then you could set up both strictness and flexibility - of course, sometimes it will end up costing more if you split the DCA - so for example $100 or $200 per period might end up getting split as $20s or $50s or $100s or whatever.  So, if you are not penalized with fees, then the main other penalty would just be that you are spending time on the matter, which may or may not be a good use of time, including that you could just end up out-thinking yourself. 

Largely in my first year of bitcoin, I authorized myself with a weekly allowance, so frequently, I would buy manually every week and attempt to be strategic about my buys in the week - whether or not I was able to stack a few extra sats in the whole attempts to be strategic might really not be that big of a deal in the whole scheme of things, even though I know the feelings that newbies have to attempts to get the most bang for their buck and also to attempt to avoid and/or minimize fees... I had some of those kinds of ways of thinking about the matter, so in some sense it made me feel good to 1) have a weekly BTC buying allowance, 2) attempt to be strategic within the week to get better prices when possible and 3) largely make sure that I spent the whole allowance by the end of the week.. absent maybe rare carry overs.. but mostly I would spend the whole of each week's allowance each week.

I had other portions of my cashflow that I dedicated to lump sum investing and also buying on dips, so I did have some funds that I kept in reserves for such purposes, or if new funds were to come in (some kind of a surprise cashflow of $1,200 for example), then I might immediately divide the new and unexpected $1,200 into
those three categories... for example.. lump sum invest immediately with $400 (1/3), plug $400 (1/3) into my DCA system (based on time of course.. maybe add $20 per week for the next $20 weeks or $80 per week for the next 5 weeks) and plug $400 (1/3) into my buy on dip budget (ladders - which might be spread out to buy every 5% drop in price or some other increment of comfort... so I could spread them through the whole ladder or just strategically pick some price points to add the $400.. whether adding to $20 to 20 buy points or $100 to 4 buy points or some other increment that would be of comfort to me).
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January 06, 2022, 11:54:12 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (5)

Wow...that's cool. I didn't know ETH, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology is opening another campus...
Valuable info, thanks !

Just to be clear I'm talking about ETH2, the next gen evolution of Ethereum that will make it scale like big time! I don't want to say more since you might be familiar with it already, I guess most readers of this thread are, but if you don't, it's worth a few minutes to Google it Smiley

About the ETH, I know we like on the same spinning rock of the milky way, but are you from Switzerland by any chance? Grin

I am developing something right now which will hopefully eventually turn out just great.

Cheers!


I'm sorry you didn't get it. But never mind...
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January 07, 2022, 12:01:36 AM


Explanation
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January 07, 2022, 12:14:16 AM

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

I don't know if you are correct regarding the top is already in.. yeah we have a bit of a moving target, but I am still thinking that the odds are against the top being in.. so less than 50/50.. so I view a bit of a problematic angle to your speculation when you are asserting the top to already be in with such seemingly high level of confidence..

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

I don't believe it will take that long.

My energy provider just now emailed me asking me to lock in my energy prices for the next 3 years.

They LITERALLY quoted £300 / $400 per month. More than double of what I pay now.
They reckon that is going to be a "good deal".  Shocked

The true realities of inflation are going to come to light this year I reckon.

We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

I cannot really disagree with you regarding your assessment that ongoing money printing and unsoundness of money is likely going to lead to even more extreme clownishness.. and perhaps even various kinds of moves of desperation.

Of course, your energy provider is wanting to front load to some degree, so it pays for your energy provider to lock you in to double prices, and sure they may well end up being right, but I bet that they wrote the contract in such a way that it does not matter if they are right about the future prices, you are responsible for such speculation that they want you to take while paying them in advance.

Regarding the end of the cycle, you do seem to premature in such speculation.. so I would speculate that the odds are against you, and for sure, it is not easy to proclaim what would end up being a correct assertion, especially if we end up getting something that kind of looks like a cycle, but ends up not really being a cycle, then both of us could end up claiming that we were correct.. you saying that the cycles have ended and my unwillingness/refusal to give up upon such cycles just yet....

....and by the way, I give few shits about whether I am correct or not, because so far in my bitcoin life, I have NOT played such nonsense in terms of trying to time bigger sales towards the top, and so I am not really sure if I am going to change my ways... Probably, if we were to experience up to about $250k in the coming 1-9 months, I am not going to really deviate from my already existing system too much; however, if we were to get into the $600k to $1.5 million in the coming 1-9 months.. or maybe dragging out into 2023, I may well play something like that a little BIGGER than my already existing system suggests.  Now price tops of $250k to $600k might be a bit more ambiguous regarding whether I might need to make some adjustments to the amount that I expect to sell on the way there (if we were to get there in the coming 1-9 months).. so could be a product of price and time in terms of if the whole matter is looking/feeling like a blow off top (again if we go there, which sounds like wishful thinking but still seems to me to be good to prepare for these kinds of possibilities, even if they might seem pretty damned low on the probability scale).
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January 07, 2022, 01:01:28 AM


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January 07, 2022, 01:02:00 AM

Even if it goes back to $10k, I am HODLing, will keep on buying coz I am proud to be the first 1% in this technology. Smiley

I admit that my buy orders run out at $20k, so it would be a bit of a dilemma for me.. regarding if BTC prices were to go down that low.. .and I have even been giving some thoughts of pulling some of my buy orders between $20k and $27k.. and hopefully that would not be too fool-hardly.. so in that regard, if BTC prices were to stay below $20k for more than a couple of weeks, there might be some questions regarding the overall investment thesis..  
 Of course, getting below $27k and staying there for a bit of time, even a few months would not be completely out of the realm of possibilities, but that also seems like a bit of a long shot scenario that may well put some aspects of bitcoin's investment thesis into question...  

I will believe it when I see it (that is if I see it), and surely there would be some need for analysis and maybe even trouble shooting regarding how some of the financial instruments are being used.. and maybe even perhaps some needs for the community to reassess if there might be some  higher (considerably?) value that is needed to be given to coins in your possession and if there might be some weirdness going on with attempts to debase bitcoin like had been done to gold and really seems to be a lot more difficult to achieve in bitcoin, especially if people (HODLers) are recognizing the value of directly holding their keys and pulling them away from third parties if there seems to be too much fuckery going on in regards to seeming inflation of the BTC supply (which is likely already happening, but it remains questionable whether such fuckery is really going to be able to keep King Daddy down).

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,


We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

Well said mister bunny…..
I share the same thinking, cycle’s are a thing of the past…

OutOfMerit….

"No more cycles" seems to be rising to the level of contagious in the WO..

Gonna have to clone some batmans for some serious slappenings if the virus does not stop, soontm.

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

#nohomo

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

I don't believe it will take that long.

My energy provider just now emailed me asking me to lock in my energy prices for the next 3 years.

They LITERALLY quoted £300 / $400 per month. More than double of what I pay now.
They reckon that is going to be a "good deal".  Shocked

The true realities of inflation are going to come to light this year I reckon.

We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

Pretty much so. With major institutional investors NOT selling how much more can we dive? Just to remind you - we're about 40% from ATH already.

I don't see many of those whining tweets and posts anymore - ooohh guys I took a loan, sold my wife, kids and kidney and invested everything in Bitcoin now I'm broke fuck Bitcoin and please help me (Bitcoin ruined my life)!!!  Grin  

Oh my.. is that another "disappearance of the cycle" theory?... gonna need some gloves (just to protect from the chafe)..


and oh my.. the children!!!!!!

How many BTC do you need?

Maybe 2.9? or perhaps 3.1..?  or let's just ballpark the amount to be at 3 BTC, no?  

That would be a reasonable amount for some of us to help you to achieve your target(s), right?  Like manna from heaven... .even better than getting it from Santa, sir?
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January 07, 2022, 01:02:27 AM

Just to be clear, I didnt sell any bitcoin...shitcoins I won't comment.  And I cant predict if the top is in, I suck at predicting.  I still feel top will be in the 80k$ range.  however something did change with the cycles, I agree with that.  I trust the math though, and the math says bitcoin goes higher with time as long as its not dead xD.  
Also I dont want to shill for a project or anything, but i've been playing neosVR since the start of the pandemic pretty much and I really recommend VR to everyone.  the "metaverses" you see in the news are pretty much garbage, really interesting stuff is going on right now that is years ahead of anything big corps can put out.  You can have actual facial expressions, emotions, eye tracking, face tracking, full body tracking, haptic response vests, haptic gloves/hands, etc.  your brain thinks its real....so its real.  welcome to the matrix.  You can have a fully wireless setup with 10+point tracking and dance in VR and its pretty awesome.  like https://youtu.be/kqNzBrvEk8s?t=667
Just posting this to inspire people who have a hard time in lockdown/pandemic.  delete this if too offtopic or whatever I wont be offended
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January 07, 2022, 01:31:30 AM
Merited by Arriemoller (1)

I really recommend VR to everyone.  the "metaverses" you see in the news are pretty much garbage, really interesting stuff is going on right now that is years ahead of anything big corps can put out.  You can have actual facial expressions, emotions, eye tracking, face tracking, full body tracking, haptic response vests, haptic gloves/hands, etc.  your brain thinks its real....so its real.  welcome to the matrix.  You can have a fully wireless setup with 10+point tracking and dance in VR and its pretty awesome.  like https://youtu.be/kqNzBrvEk8s?t=667

Offended? Not at all! On the contrary, I'm going to join the Metaverse soon. Waiting for 10+ point tracking wearables with 10+ point haptic response. Nether wearables.
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January 07, 2022, 01:46:25 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

The situation in Kazakhstan just shows that the governments still have power over us and over our money, even if we invested in Bitcoin. They just need to shut down the internet. I am no tech guy. But I hope there are plans for a decentralized internet in the very near future.

Quote
The Blockstream Satellite network broadcasts the Bitcoin blockchain around the world 24/7 for free, protecting against network interruptions and providing areas without reliable internet connections with the opportunity to use Bitcoin.

https://blockstream.com/satellite/
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January 07, 2022, 01:53:07 AM

Even if it goes back to $10k, I am HODLing, will keep on buying coz I am proud to be the first 1% in this technology. Smiley

I admit that my buy orders run out at $20k, so it would be a bit of a dilemma for me.. regarding if BTC prices were to go down that low.. .and I have even been giving some thoughts of pulling some of my buy orders between $20k and $27k.. and hopefully that would not be too fool-hardly.. so in that regard, if BTC prices were to stay below $20k for more than a couple of weeks, there might be some questions regarding the overall investment thesis..  
 Of course, getting below $27k and staying there for a bit of time, even a few months would not be completely out of the realm of possibilities, but that also seems like a bit of a long shot scenario that may well put some aspects of bitcoin's investment thesis into question...  

I will believe it when I see it (that is if I see it), and surely there would be some need for analysis and maybe even trouble shooting regarding how some of the financial instruments are being used.. and maybe even perhaps some needs for the community to reassess if there might be some  higher (considerably?) value that is needed to be given to coins in your possession and if there might be some weirdness going on with attempts to debase bitcoin like had been done to gold and really seems to be a lot more difficult to achieve in bitcoin, especially if people (HODLers) are recognizing the value of directly holding their keys and pulling them away from third parties if there seems to be too much fuckery going on in regards to seeming inflation of the BTC supply (which is likely already happening, but it remains questionable whether such fuckery is really going to be able to keep King Daddy down).

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,


We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

Well said mister bunny…..
I share the same thinking, cycle’s are a thing of the past…

OutOfMerit….

"No more cycles" seems to be rising to the level of contagious in the WO..

Gonna have to clone some batmans for some serious slappenings if the virus does not stop, soontm.

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

#nohomo

So rich fucks ruined the 2021 bitcoin rally perhaps.  See y'all in 2025 for the next run up ?  Hope you all learned and took some money out to go skiing in Italy or something xD.  But we all know why we are here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIvxOjS6Ag
edit: with love,

I don't believe it will take that long.

My energy provider just now emailed me asking me to lock in my energy prices for the next 3 years.

They LITERALLY quoted £300 / $400 per month. More than double of what I pay now.
They reckon that is going to be a "good deal".  Shocked

The true realities of inflation are going to come to light this year I reckon.

We have seen nothing yet.

--> More money printing

--> More inflation

I think BTC is inevitable and cycles are a thing of the past.

Pretty much so. With major institutional investors NOT selling how much more can we dive? Just to remind you - we're about 40% from ATH already.

I don't see many of those whining tweets and posts anymore - ooohh guys I took a loan, sold my wife, kids and kidney and invested everything in Bitcoin now I'm broke fuck Bitcoin and please help me (Bitcoin ruined my life)!!!  Grin  

Oh my.. is that another "disappearance of the cycle" theory?... gonna need some gloves (just to protect from the chafe)..


and oh my.. the children!!!!!!

How many BTC do you need?

Maybe 2.9? or perhaps 3.1..?  or let's just ballpark the amount to be at 3 BTC, no?  

That would be a reasonable amount for some of us to help you to achieve your target(s), right?  Like manna from heaven... .even better than getting it from Santa, sir?

rather than 20-27

shift to 18-25

and if you have some 38-42
drop them

or not.

I just keep the $50 a day going
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January 07, 2022, 02:01:28 AM


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January 07, 2022, 02:16:32 AM

It's all true about no or diminishing cycles, but then it is difficult to find pivots.

Maybe go by oversold conditions, but you could still be off by quite a bit.
The best policy is to not sell much for a long time. It worked for AAPL, GOOGL, even MSFT and it should work even better for bitcoin.

If you are getting into comments about strategy, you tend to be a bit inconsistent, so you would not be a good source, even though you do say some decent things from time to time.

Surely, whether cycles exist or not, there might not be any kind of BIG difference in long-term financial strategies.. at least in terms of some imprudence that may well come from making any kinds of BIG sales of a portfolio in anticipation that the price is going down and in anticipation that you will be able to buy lower. 

Nonetheless, the possibility of ongoing cycles should allow for some kinds of preparations that go beyond mere psychology.  One thing that has tended to happen is that guys get really nervous in regards to how much their networth is rising on paper when the BTC price is going UP exponentially, so if they have not prepared for such an exponential rise - both psychologically and financially, then they may well end up engaging in too much emotionally motivated behaviors... so I would not even be arguing that any of us can completely get rid of the emotions that come from exponential moves in the BTC price (either direction), but if we fail/refuse to plan for such (even if it is of minority likelihoods), then we become more likely to panic or NOT to really have clearly prepared ourselves for such extremes.

Sure, it might not be as BIG of a deal if you are holding onto 20 coins from 2015, but if you had stocked up on coins somewhat aggressively and/or excessively (whether 50 BTC or 100 BTC or some greater amount), then you might be more inclined to shave some BTC off on the way up or to see some value in preparing yourself both financially and psychologically for such an exponential and outrageous toppening thing that could end up happening and then resulting in a kind of exponential and outrageous crashening.. even if you cannot tell if the UP is over or not and even if the whole idea of exponential UPs playing out may well be a minority theory.

By the way, part of the logical explanation why such seemingly outrageous blow off tops end up playing out is partly due to the length of time and the degree that the BTC price is kept down.. so if you look historically at BTC cycles in 2013 and 2017, you may well notice that BTC's price for the 2021 cycle is not even near to either the 2013 or the 2017 levels,.. so perhaps we might be able to argue something like a 16x top for this particular cycle, yet the 2013 and the 2017 tops were around 100x and 78x respectively.  Yeah, sure of course, it could be time for bitcoin to start leveling out in terms of the extremes of UPpity.. but I continue to have my doubts, and you can believe whatever you like, and let's see what happens.

Again, yeah for some folks who have not really overstocked in BTC for whatever reasons, and they might ONLY have 20 BTC instead of 50 BTC, 100 BTC or some greater amount, then they might not feel as over-invested in BTC and willing to shave some off along the way UPpity.. if such continued periods of UPpity continue to happen as they have historically done.. and maybe we ONLY end up getting 40x or 50x for this cycle, rather than 100x or  78x, but 16x seems a wee bit of a departure.. at least to this cat.. and I am not totally opposed to some kind of minority theory such as the top is in playing out...or that we have a 1 to 2 year pause before going to the next ATH again.. just seems like a minority theory to me.. even though it is possible to happen.


All schemes that include buy/sell every thousand are pitiful.

That's quite the blanket statement... and for sure seems to be a jab at me... not that you hardly have any clue about what I am doing besides trying to pick it apart and to misrepresent the several aspects of the considered tradeoffs.


Buy in oversold conditions, sell (if you must) in overbought conditions.

This is probably part of the reason that you hardly have any coins.

For one DCA probably works a whole hell of a lot better to stock up on BTC without having to be some kind of technical analysis expert regarding what the fuck is oversold and what is overbought.

Furthermore any DCA strategy can be supplemented by lump sum investing and buying on dips, and for sure there should be needs to attempt to both tailor to your own situation including finances and psychology but also to make some overall assessments that include figuring out cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to plan, strategize and reallocate from time to time which may include the employment of trading or financial instruments.. even though trading and financial instruments are more advanced techniques and likely should not be employed until after getting a pretty good grasp over the power of more basic techniques including understanding and appreciating the asymmetric opportunity that seems to be present in bitcoin including that relatively modest investment amounts could end up in large levels of wealth (and arriving at fuck you status way sooner than otherwise feasible or possible through various traditional investments).


That said, those situations might still carry on for extra 20-30%, so achieving an absolute top/bottom is a rarity, but try we must.

Biodom's strategy:  try to time absolute tops and bottoms... does not sound too good to me.. but hey, if that's what you want to do, it's your money... or lost opportunities when you have not adequately pee pared ur lil selfie for UP because you are too busy waiting for further dippenings that do not end up happening... which is another reason that you had not stocked more than 20 BTC since 2015...too busy waiting for a dip that does not end up happening.


Even if it goes back to $10k, I am HODLing, will keep on buying coz I am proud to be the first 1% in this technology. Smiley

That escalated….. 10k talk etc…..

<snip>This sums up the behaviour of both the spot  and the derivate traders. I'm sure their loss is tremendous, but they continue to believe doing the same thing over and over again will give different result at the end. This is just the definition of stupidity.

of course, because most of them are playing with "other people's money" (OPM).

Yeah.. put it on you, Biodom, to consider that there is some value to laud those kinds of techniques to leverage with other people's money... by the way, I am not against tactical and strategic use of leverage and debt, but you can get yourself into a whole ton of shit if you are gambling too much with leverage/debt... but hey, you do you...if you believe that aspiring to gambling with other people's money and playing around with sophisticated financial instruments is a comfortable way to attempt to live.  Stress much?

[edited out]

***PS EDIT***  I want to seemingly contradict myself hugely by saying one other thing.  I do still think a S-curve adoption/valuation supercycle event is a non-zero possibility.  It really is a matter of how steep is that curve.  Imagine if we see the last 18 months just repeat itslef over and over for about 7-10 years... see what I am saying?  I am not sure if my opinion on the likelihood of this has changed in the last 6-8 months... hmm...

I am not completely in agreement with your ideas about the disappearance of the cycle or the disappearance of extremes, but surely you made your claims decently well.

It seems that my continuous point is that bearfucktwats do some of this to themselves by pushing the BTC price way too low for too long.. so then when it starts going up or gets past certain points, they surely cannot control it anymore and really are forced to go with the flow... whether we are referring to extreme UPward movements or extreme DOWNs.

Maybe it does not even matter if we call them cycles, but surely we have to see how they play out, rather than just proclaiming that if they did not happen by December 2021 or within a month or two thereafter, they are no longer applicable... and surely market sentiment is ONLY one aspect of whether we might enter into some kind of blow-off top at a time that might not be exactly anticipated or even easily stopped once it gets out of hand.

Regarding your questioning of whether an s-curve exists in bitcoin or will continue to exist.. sure it is already in existence.. and likely going to continue, even though sometimes it is difficult to see that you are in it while it is going on.  Even if we take $100-ish as a base price (in 2013), 430x from there is not an s-curve? 

come... spit... on.. .




You can choose to see it or not.. or you can hypothesize if it is part of the future.. blah blah blah... seems we are already in the midst of it and maybe the only question is whether we are at the bottom, middle or top... Probably more like the early stages, since bitcoin is likely 1,000x gold, which would be 10,000x from here rather than your assertion that we might only have 100x in us.. and suggesting the 100x might be ONLY a splurge.. and of course, I know that you are more bullish than that. #nohomo
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January 07, 2022, 02:51:39 AM

@jjg..your comments about my holdings are a bit strange. I never disclosed it, so you basically circle-jerk yourself talking about this. The number you keep referring to was one of the hypotheticals that I posted to indicate that you didn't need a lot of money in 2014-2015 to have a decent sum now, but I never said how much I personally got, so let's just drop the subject due to the number being discussed being based on your vivid imagination and nothing else.

I also remember that at one point i was also referring to 0.03 btc being a decent number based on average per earthling being able to buy only 0.003.
Examples are just this: examples. Do bots get it or it is too much to expect?

btw, your "peepered for Uppity" line is getting stale.

anything new?
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January 07, 2022, 02:53:46 AM

[edited out]

I agree. I dont expect these massive 1000% run ups in one week but also no more 90% drops. It will stabilize over the years more and more as it should for a real store of value. You cant expect massive pumps and dumps from a store of value because then it is no store of value but a highly speculative object. On the other hand, we still measure the value of Bitcoin in Fiat. But if the value of a Fiat currency drops dramatically (like we seen in Turkey), then we will get those massive candles in the currency of that country. Its just a mind fuck to think about a world where only Bitcoin exists. How will we set the value of something? How much Bitcoin will one cup of coffee be worth?

I've been hearing these kinds of Kumbaya arguments that bitcoin is transitioning into "stability" ever since I got into bitcoin in late 2013. 

We have seen a lot of "non-stability" in bitcoin, and bitcoin has been doing just fine.

None of us should be expecting either a smooth transition to unseat the incumbents or that war is actually stable..

but hey... you can believe what you like.

I have not seen stability in bitcoin, but people still want to argue that nonsense.

Every calendar year we have "nonstability" but peeps still want to assert that from here on out stability is coming.

Yeah right.

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Just take the last year?

Yeah, maybe it seems stable in retrospect, but if we entered the year from a $10k bottom in September 2020 that went up to 6.5x and then later to 6.9x with a 56% drop and a 39% drop so far... ..

yeah we have overlap across years, but who gives any fucks because bitcoin and its price moves are not calendar year dependent, just like it is not exactly on a 4 year schedule.. but hey.. let's read bitcoin into a strict schedule and then get disappointed when the badger does not cooperate, right?

2021...or the relevant parts surrounding what bitcoin did during such calendar year was not exactly stable.. or the end of volatility, even though we have many peeps spouting out such nonsense is in bitcoin's near term future.. yeah right... sounds like a wish rather than some kind of a fact/logic based assessment of what bitcoin is.

By the way, one of the only guarantees in bitcoin is that it is going to be volatile.. but hey, let's try to assume away one of the only aspects of bitcoin that is anywhere close to being a guarantee...


again...


rrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiigggggggghhhhhhhttttttt

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

[edited out]

Most of the things mentioned in this post are self-explanatory. On the other hand $40k x 1000 is only 40 million so taking into account current and future inflation I wouldn't say it's unreachable.  Cool

Of course, 1,000x is 100x the value of gold, and we could fairly reasonably conceive bitcoin to be 1,000x the value of gold, which puts bitcoin at about 10,000x price appreciation from here.

I am not saying 10,000x would be easy.. and maybe even 1,000x might not be easy either.. but 10x to 100x seem reachable in one or two or perhaps three cycles from here... so then the question might be how long does it take to get the additional amount to get to either 1,000x or 10,000x.. and that could be 10 more years or 50 years or maybe 100 years..

@Bob: Year of the crab? Waddayamean?

Bob is ongoingly crabby, and he has a whole year to dedicate to such. 



It's gonna be a good year.














#nohomo


  I dont want to shill for a project or anything, but 


That's a big but.

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January 07, 2022, 03:00:34 AM

@jjg you outdone yourself here haha.."bitcoin is 1000X better than gold, so it has to cost 1000X of gold".

well, light microscope is 1000X "better" than a human eye to see relatively small objects, so it has to cost 1000X of the eye, right?

it's hilarious.
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