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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336542 times)
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January 13, 2022, 11:06:32 AM

Can't your internet connexion play a role in the chance of hitting a block ?

No, your chances of hitting a block are not affected by your internet connection, but indeed it can affect how quick you can distribute a found block to your peers. I admit that is a bit of hairsplitting around words, if you phrased your question as "play a role in getting the reward for a found block" the answer would be yes.

So if for example Alice and Bob find a block at the very same time (same milisecond), and Alice has a satellite connection with ~1s roundtrip while Bob has fiber to the home with a roundtrip of <10ms, Bob has much better chances to have his block accepted and being built upon by other miners/pools.

Also if you mine on a pool and the network connection to the pool has a lot of delay/roundtrip you probably waste some hashpower after submitting a share and before receiving new work from the pool. Let's use above example and assume you submit a share every 25s, that is Alice loses ~1s every 25s waiting for new work, while Bob loses 5-10ms every 25s waiting for new work from the pool. So Alice loses ~4% while Bob only wastes ~0.02-0.04% of their hashrate (if my math is not on meth).




Yeah that's what I meant, thanks for reminding me of the various issues.
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January 13, 2022, 11:17:39 AM

She should stick to bad amateur porn instead of peddling shitcoins.

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/kardashian-west-mayweather-sued-over-170000342.html
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January 13, 2022, 11:20:51 AM

Good Day to ya all Cheesy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19gq3Soo7ms
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January 13, 2022, 12:01:37 PM


Explanation
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January 13, 2022, 12:03:18 PM

Thought CB was going to print out 44k range as 43914 price waves were recorded and only 86 was short but CB plays that backward move again and take us back to $43k still ocean Grin

No need for some another TA analysis and here is one funny meme for the same



Is this right LFC_Bitcoin? Grin
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January 13, 2022, 01:01:27 PM


Explanation
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January 13, 2022, 01:04:15 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (3), vapourminer (1)

This is not a once in a 70 Day chance, if it was we all be hearing about it and everyone would be solo mining... You will need about 17,500TH to be hitting a block every 70days.

You are using a PPS method to calculate the above. Statistically it is what you would generate with the current network difficulty.

Excluding fees/cost/etc and any network diff changes, you are earning 0.00065BTC a day

If difficulty was to never rise and fall, it would take approx 9,615 days to generate 6.25BTC or approx 26 Years.

Here are some numbers and facts to drool over...

Every hash has an equal chance of hitting a block
There is approx. 175,000,000TH or 175,000,000,000,000,000,000 Hash
126TH  or 126,000,000,000,000 Hash is approx 0.000072% of the over all hash rate
Remember, statistically speaking, you will never hit a block, but that doesn't mean you will not get lucky. (glitch in the Matrix)

So yes it is a once in a life time hit.

Probably Black Jack has about the best odds for the player out of any of the casino games, so long as the casino does not further undermine the odds by adding new unfair rules (or rules that worsen odds of regular blackjack)... but even with odds of maybe 1% to 2% against the player, some players believe that they can beat the odds to cause them to become 1% to 2% in their favor - mostly by attempting to play consistently with a system that maybe allows to change their bet on certain conditions (probably a kind of counting involved too, even though some players claim that they can consistently win at blackjack without counting cards).  

Playing Black Jack sounds much better than the odds being described above - hence likely the reason that hardly anyone mines solo unless they have enough hashpower to hit on a fairly regular basis, maybe monthly or so.. which probably would cost quite a bit of money to get to that level of hashpower.. so yeah mining has been questionably  profitable through the years as compared with just buying coins.  

I suppose that if the miner cannot generate enough hashpower to attempt to hit close to 10--12 times per year, then such miner then is forced (for practical purposes) to join a pool.  This post likely demonstrates part of the reason that I am not a miner.... and just a plain Jane buyer of bitcoins (or would it be a plain Joe?).

Edited:  Made a few clarification and fleshing out of idea attempts.
<snip>i just feel 10,000 to 1 is not a right representation of the odds of hitting a block regardless of time/duration.

it's not 1:10000 per block in his example, it is 1:10000 per day.
There are about 6X24=144 blocks a day, so the chance per block is 1:1440000 (one in 1.44 mil blocks) in his example.
@jjg..almost no one is mining solo, true...that was just one person who hit the jackpot.
Or, maybe, he had 101 machines with 100 mining in a pool and 1 "playing lottery"...this is not possible to determine. Some old timers do this kind of thing.

I do that in a modified version.

two very small pools not solo mmpool.org and Laurentia.org

I mine 20th at each one I get a share of the pool if we hit the block, but the pools are so small it is a big share.

and I mine 1300th at a pool that gives daily payouts.

look here I am in 3rd place

https://pool.laurentiapool.org/#/miners

I get 0.75 btc if the pool hits a block.

This is a modified hodl method. where you hodl the potential payout.  not the actual coins

pretend we have 393th as the team that is 1,440,000/393 = 3664 to 1 chance the block hit 1 block today I get .75 x 43700 = 32,775 for playing the pool all day and hitting a block

what is my cost 15 th x .2284 = $3.426 if it was in sure earnings pool

well I have 1300 x .2284 = $296.92 in the sure earnings pool

who cares about the $3.43 I risk daily for a 32,775 payout

check those odds 32,775/3.43 = I am getting a payout of 9555 to 1 and what are the odds of hitting this 3664 to 1

so this is a low cost high risk high return investment.

Basically for today I play a 3664 to 1 shot and if I hit I get paid 9555 to 1

one could argue my math is wrong but it is based on a 144 block day not 1 block. and it is based on the 15th loss of mining income with free power. which is $3.43

you could argue I should count the power cost for that 15th in my case it is $1.56

which means I spend $1.56 to do this each day not the $3.43 I would have collected or you could could use 3.43-1.56 = 1.87

but 3.43 cost vs 1.87 cost vs 1.56 cost  means I did the least favorable interpretation

32,775 payout

32,775/3.43 =    9555 to 1
32,775/1.87 = 17,526 to 1
32,775/1.56 = 21,009 to 1


I ask anyone who would not want to play 1.56 a day for 32,775 if the odds of collecting are 3664 to 1
or play 1.87 a day for the same 32,775 at 3,664 to 1
or play 3.43 a day to get 32,775 at 3,664 to 1


you would be surprised how many people do not understand and argue that I am wrong.

in each and every case I give I am simply doing a low cost high risk high yield investment that over time should score bigly.

Of course it does not mean it will it only means the odds favor the play.

unlike a casino where the odds do not favor the play

mining = investing odds are in your favor
casino = gambling odd are against you

viabtc.com the payout is steady

1300th earns 296 a day  pre power cost.

this is a high cost low risk low yield investment

my cost to get the 296 = 50% or I net 148 a day  very sure very steady subject to price of btc and the difficulty.

My gear cost is now 0 my power and infrastructure cost is always 50% of the coin mined.  so when bears wake up I still earn when bulls are running my host does better than I do.

but in 2018 and 2019 and 1/2 of 2020  the bear was very nasty my deal worked well.

Back to solo mining or tiny pool mining

why not play 2 or 3 or 4 or even 10 dollars a day at a long shot when you earn the safe mining.  and the long shot mine plays way better then the cost. just takes time.




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January 13, 2022, 01:28:30 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Tonga plans to move from USD-pegged beans to BTC too:

In a ruling that is “almost identical to the El Salvador bill,” Tongan bigwig Lord Fusitu’a anticipates that his country could adopt Bitcoin by November.
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January 13, 2022, 01:34:23 PM

Be careful out there, brothers.



Damnit Bob!
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January 13, 2022, 01:37:01 PM

Bye bye Firefox
Its very likely that this perception of the general public about how bad Bitcoin is to the environment, and how it effects climate change is partly the reason why its taken a little fall. I'm not really complaining too much about that to be honest, I get to earn a little more Bitcoin than I would have if it stayed where it was at, and I'm confident in the future we'll actually be able to largely reduce this reputation. Its just annoying to see brands, and services I prefer coming out with nonsense like this. I know they haven't completely removed it yet, since they're conducting a review, but they likely will after they feel the pressure from the public.



The Mozilla foundation had already shown signs they'd been compromised. Fortunately, people are picking up on these things ever more quickly and the wait for alternatives gets shorter all the time.

I am not a very political person.  Some would say I am lacking principal.  But I will be uninstalling Firefox for sure.  Not sure what that accomplishes.  But I do not want to have ANYTHING to do with supporting the sorts of garbage they seem to be supporting.
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January 13, 2022, 01:40:26 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JimboToronto (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

why not play 2 or 3 or 4 or even 10 dollars a day at a long shot when you earn the safe mining.  and the long shot mine plays way better then the cost. just takes time.

I know it's a rhetorical question, but if anyone cares - variance is the answer to "why not". The 1:3664 chance for the pool to find a block means it would take 10 years on average, but it's not a 100% chance in 10 years. I'm too lazy to calculate now but there's probably like a 10% chance that it won't hit a block in 20 years.

I'm not saying this is a wrong strategy - like you said, compared to casino gambling you have an edge here as long as the cost/difficulty ratio is favorable. It's still a massive gamble though.

I am not a very political person.  Some would say I am lacking principal.  But I will be uninstalling Firefox for sure.  Not sure what that accomplishes.  But I do not want to have ANYTHING to do with supporting the sorts of garbage they seem to be supporting.

If you're not political you should ignore the noise, uninstall Chrome/Edge/etc and support Firefox. Seriously, most of the other browsers are a steaming pile of garbage developed by the largest spyware company in the world.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 13, 2022, 01:40:41 PM
Last edit: January 13, 2022, 01:55:49 PM by vapourminer

Can't your internet connexion play a role in the chance of hitting a block ?

if two peeps solve a block at the same time the quickest to broadcast the block to the most nodes wins. thats one reason why block size matters, big blocks take longer to broadcast.

at least thats the way i understand it from back in the day. happy to be proven wrong as im always open to correction.
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January 13, 2022, 01:47:35 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

This is not a once in a 70 Day chance, if it was we all be hearing about it and everyone would be solo mining... You will need about 17,500TH to be hitting a block every 70days.

You are using a PPS method to calculate the above. Statistically it is what you would generate with the current network difficulty.

Excluding fees/cost/etc and any network diff changes, you are earning 0.00065BTC a day

If difficulty was to never rise and fall, it would take approx 9,615 days to generate 6.25BTC or approx 26 Years.

Here are some numbers and facts to drool over...

Every hash has an equal chance of hitting a block
There is approx. 175,000,000TH or 175,000,000,000,000,000,000 Hash
126TH  or 126,000,000,000,000 Hash is approx 0.000072% of the over all hash rate
Remember, statistically speaking, you will never hit a block, but that doesn't mean you will not get lucky. (glitch in the Matrix)

So yes it is a once in a life time hit.

Probably Black Jack has about the best odds for the player out of any of the casino games, so long as the casino does not further undermine the odds by adding new unfair rules (or rules that worsen odds of regular blackjack)... but even with odds of maybe 1% to 2% against the player, some players believe that they can beat the odds to cause them to become 1% to 2% in their favor - mostly by attempting to play consistently with a system that maybe allows to change their bet on certain conditions (probably a kind of counting involved too, even though some players claim that they can consistently win at blackjack without counting cards). 

Playing Black Jack sounds much better than the odds being described above - hence likely the reason that hardly anyone mines solo unless they have enough hashpower to hit on a fairly regular basis, maybe monthly or so.. which probably would cost quite a bit of money to get to that level of hashpower.. so yeah mining has been questionably  profitable through the years as compared with just buying coins. 

I suppose that if the miner cannot generate enough hashpower to attempt to hit close to 10--12 times per year, then such miner then is forced (for practical purposes) to join a pool.  This post likely demonstrates part of the reason that I am not a miner.... and just a plain Jane buyer of bitcoins (or would it be a plain Joe?).

Edited:  Made a few clarification and fleshing out of idea attempts.

Blackjack, like all casino (non parimutuel) games is a statistically negative expected value (-EV} game. (there are of course legendary exceptions to this for Blackjack in particular but that is another topic, or perhaps movie)

Mining can be a +EV endeavor.

Your example COULD be true for poker, sports betting, or horses...
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 13, 2022, 01:48:12 PM

Can't your internet connexion play a role in the chance of hitting a block ?

No, your chances of hitting a block are not affected by your internet connection, but indeed it can affect how quick you can distribute a found block to your peers. I admit that is a bit of hairsplitting around words, if you phrased your question as "play a role in getting the reward for a found block" the answer would be yes.

So if for example Alice and Bob find a block at the very same time (same milisecond), and Alice has a satellite connection with ~1s roundtrip while Bob has fiber to the home with a roundtrip of <10ms, Bob has much better chances to have his block accepted and being built upon by other miners/pools.

Also if you mine on a pool and the network connection to the pool has a lot of delay/roundtrip you probably waste some hashpower after submitting a share and before receiving new work from the pool. Let's use above example and assume you submit a share every 25s, that is Alice loses ~1s every 25s waiting for new work, while Bob loses 5-10ms every 25s waiting for new work from the pool. So Alice loses ~4% while Bob only wastes ~0.02-0.04% of their hashrate (if my math is not on meth).

running satellite internet here so ill toss my numbers out: 100ms ping on average, 45/3 mbits down/up. i generally get under 1% stales/invalids mining an unmentionable batman slap inducing shitcoin.
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January 13, 2022, 01:51:36 PM

If you're not political you should ignore the noise, uninstall Chrome/Edge/etc and support Firefox. Seriously, most of the other browsers are a steaming pile of garbage developed by the largest spyware company in the world.

This. I still manage to survive without Chrome on desktop. I've been a fervent Opera supporter/user until they switched rendering engine first, and eventually turned into just another Chromium variant. Firefox still feels like they have the user in mind. They're wrong about bitcoin, and maybe they're saying things for marketing reasons. It's hard to survive in the browser arena. I hope they stay afloat and the egemony doesn't turn into a monopoly.

On mobile it's a different matter: The classic Android stock browser is still googleware - just like Chrome anyway. I'll use the latter since it works better.
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January 13, 2022, 01:56:44 PM

why not play 2 or 3 or 4 or even 10 dollars a day at a long shot when you earn the safe mining.  and the long shot mine plays way better then the cost. just takes time.

I know it's a rhetorical question, but if anyone cares - variance is the answer to "why not". The 1:3664 chance for the pool to find a block means it would take 10 years on average, but it's not a 100% chance in 10 years. I'm too lazy to calculate now but there's probably like a 10% chance that it won't hit a block in 20 years.

I'm not saying this is a wrong strategy - like you said, compared to casino gambling you have an edge here as long as the cost/difficulty ratio is favorable. It's still a massive gamble though.

I am not a very political person.  Some would say I am lacking principal.  But I will be uninstalling Firefox for sure.  Not sure what that accomplishes.  But I do not want to have ANYTHING to do with supporting the sorts of garbage they seem to be supporting.

If you're not political you should ignore the noise, uninstall Chrome/Edge/etc and support Firefox. Seriously, most of the other browsers are a steaming pile of garbage developed by the largest spyware company in the world.

Well perhaps I am more political than I pretend Wink  But I will most likely be switching to DDG, I think, which I would assume is Chromium based.
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January 13, 2022, 02:01:28 PM


Explanation
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January 13, 2022, 02:05:56 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

why not play 2 or 3 or 4 or even 10 dollars a day at a long shot when you earn the safe mining.  and the long shot mine plays way better then the cost. just takes time.

I know it's a rhetorical question, but if anyone cares - variance is the answer to "why not". The 1:3664 chance for the pool to find a block means it would take 10 years on average, but it's not a 100% chance in 10 years. I'm too lazy to calculate now but there's probably like a 10% chance that it won't hit a block in 20 years.

I'm not saying this is a wrong strategy - like you said, compared to casino gambling you have an edge here as long as the cost/difficulty ratio is favorable. It's still a massive gamble though.

I am not a very political person.  Some would say I am lacking principal.  But I will be uninstalling Firefox for sure.  Not sure what that accomplishes.  But I do not want to have ANYTHING to do with supporting the sorts of garbage they seem to be supporting.

If you're not political you should ignore the noise, uninstall Chrome/Edge/etc and support Firefox. Seriously, most of the other browsers are a steaming pile of garbage developed by the largest spyware company in the world.

No it is a low cost high risk high yield investment

a massive  gamble would be playing the 1300th at solo  vs the 15th at solo.

 a lot of people fail to understand the principle of

low cost high risk high yield investment

they think it is a gamble.

there is a huge difference playing

say NY lotto pick it a 10000 to 1 shot that pays  5000 to 1 = gambling don't do this

or a solo pool that is a 10000 to 1 shot  that  pays 30000 to 1   = low cost high risk high yield investment  do this

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January 13, 2022, 02:08:03 PM

But I will be uninstalling Firefox for sure.  Not sure what that accomplishes.

Google is 1000x more evil.


Just sayin'
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January 13, 2022, 02:09:15 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1), JayJuanGee (1)

why not play 2 or 3 or 4 or even 10 dollars a day at a long shot when you earn the safe mining.  and the long shot mine plays way better then the cost. just takes time.

I know it's a rhetorical question, but if anyone cares - variance is the answer to "why not". The 1:3664 chance for the pool to find a block means it would take 10 years on average, but it's not a 100% chance in 10 years. I'm too lazy to calculate now but there's probably like a 10% chance that it won't hit a block in 20 years.

I'm not saying this is a wrong strategy - like you said, compared to casino gambling you have an edge here as long as the cost/difficulty ratio is favorable. It's still a massive gamble though.

I am not a very political person.  Some would say I am lacking principal.  But I will be uninstalling Firefox for sure.  Not sure what that accomplishes.  But I do not want to have ANYTHING to do with supporting the sorts of garbage they seem to be supporting.

If you're not political you should ignore the noise, uninstall Chrome/Edge/etc and support Firefox. Seriously, most of the other browsers are a steaming pile of garbage developed by the largest spyware company in the world.

Well perhaps I am more political than I pretend Wink  But I will most likely be switching to DDG, I think, which I would assume is Chromium based.

Maybe give waterfox a whirl, it's definitley a good alternative to bloated firefox.
Though I agree with suchmoon, it's probably the much lesser evil compared to any Google or Microsoft browser (though it really starts to annoy the crap out of me lately with its constant changes on updates).

Actually the wikipedia guys try to catch the same ESG train recently:

https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/Requests_for_comment/Stop_accepting_cryptocurrency_donations

Only few understand that BTC actually helps renewable and green energy by using that energy when nobody else does/wants to.


<snip>
running satellite internet here so ill toss my numbers out: 100ms ping on average, 45/3 mbits down/up. i generally get under 1% stales/invalids mining an unmentionable batman slap inducing shitcoin.

Thanks vapourminer, I did use 1s to simplify the comparison, but if I would have had to pull numbers out of thin air, I would have estimated it to be in the 200-500ms range nowadays. 100ms is pretty cool for a sat link IMO.

May I ask about provider, cost and traffic limits if opsec allows?
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