My thoughts are moving to the "we are in a large sideways channel", and have been since the move from 64k to 30k. I think it is therefore very possible that we move back down to near the 30k level, but there will be a lot of stacking on the way by long-term holders and it will only possible with a collapse of the traditional markets. All very possible.
I surely agree that there are decent odds that we could go back down to the lower $30ks... maybe even around 50%.. which is far from guaranteed but surly not zero odds.. and I am thinking shorter-term here, something like 1-3 months, perhaps?, and surely it is not clear how sustainable that kind of going down would be... but there are scenarios of even potentially exceeding the longer term of the range.. such as including some kinds of phenomenon that ends up really attempting to remove some of the froth in the shitcoin space.. with some of the NFT, and various ethereum imitator scamcoin models.. and surely not wanting to suggest that the tail wags the dog... and I am not even suggesting that there is any meaningful froth in Bitcoin, but if there are opportunities to purge froth and to shake some more weak hands who do not believe themselves to be weak hands, then so be it.... ..again.. maybe at best a 50/50 scenario rather than anything that has strong inclinations..
On the other hand, I will say that framing bitcoin to be in a largely sideways action since May 2021 comes off as both baloney talk and failure/refusal to appreciate the importance of the in-between BTC price movements that really has placed bitcoin in an interesting place in terms of a kind of false start on a trip to the moon in which our current ATH of $69k went ONLY slightly more than 6% above our previous ATH of $64,895...
In any event, describing that whole period as sideways has a kind of misleading flavor to it... and of course, even though I hardly give too many shits about trying to predict short-term BTC price moves because my system just reacts to BTC price movements by selling all the way up to our new high of $64,895.. and then buying all the way back down to $28,800 and then selling all the way up to $69k and buying back again down to our current local low of $39,559, and for sure I never hit any exact tops or bottoms, but surely my system usually hits within $1k or $2k of such top or bottom.. and buys/sells at several points in between.... relatively small amounts, really... .
There still seem to be needs to appreciate these kinds of up/down happenings for what they are - even if we are not sure about what might happening to be causing such seemingly outrageous ups and downs.. we are not flat.. yet we should be able to appreciate the violence of the ongoing battle, the inevitability of volatility and the confusions about the actual happening of the greatest wealth transfer in history.. Seems like some BTC price dynamics that should not be glossed over by merely asserting that we have been flat for the year..... even though factually true that any of us could have bought BTC for right around the same price as we had been able to buy such BTC a year ago,
Still quite a bit of importance has happened in the past year.....including that the 200-week moving average has moved up more than 100%.. specifically, we have a move from about $8,208 to $19,105 in the past year, which is about 133% Uppity... go chew on the significance of that reality... hahahahahaha
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/Another thing is the BTC mining hashrate.. holy fucking shit.. you really want to suggest that bitcoin has been flat in 2021? Other WO members have been mentioning such hashrate/difficulty adjustments phenomenon.. and really consider the matter. We had an ATH in hashrate and difficulty adjustment that was reached around May 13, 2021..
>>>
683,424 2021-05-13 01:58:58 25,046,487,590,083 - 25.05 T + 21.53 % 0x170b3ce9 08 min 14 s 179.25 EH/s
<<<<
https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038and then holy shit.. a drop by about 45%.. down to:
>>>>>691,488 2021-07-17 16:32:17 13,672,594,272,814 - 13.67 T - 4.81 % 0x17149624 10 min 30 s 97.87 EH/s
and 13/14 of the past difficulty adjustments have been positive in order to put current hashrate above the May 13, 2021 levels, and surely already exceeded the ATH in hashrate and going to exceed the ATH in difficulty within the next 2.5 days....
>>>>Latest Block: 719306 (a few seconds ago)
Current Pace: 107.7220% (1611 / 1495.52 expected, 115.48 ahead)
Previous Difficulty: 24272331996979.97
Current Difficulty: 24371874614345.62
Next Difficulty: between 26180068974341 and 26262010465283
Next Difficulty Change: between +7.4192% and +7.7554%
Previous Retarget: January 7, 2022 at 11:40 PM (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Thursday at 11:35 PM (in 2d 14h 39m 40s)
Next Retarget (latest): Friday at 12:34 AM (in 2d 15h 38m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 12d 23h 54m 50s and 13d 0h 53m 9s<<<
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimatorWhether we agree that some kind of sponsored state attack might have been happening in bitcoinlandia, we surely have not had flat bitcoin dynamics in the past year.. and framing the matter as flat just comes off as overly simplified.. and having some misleading elements, too... at least from the perspective of this here cat.
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