Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

Come on Bitcoin. I'm never going to be able to lie on a bed wearing sunglasses covered in $100 bills and holding a gun at this rate...

The only thing that troubles me is that I might get too old for the $100k party... 

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[somac.]

C'mon Bitcon, you know, do something...  

Anyways, where're Saylor's and Bukele's BTFD announcements? Right about time to buy the dip, girls!  

Probably blown their wads already on all the previous dips down from 69k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

Prepair for a possible max pain weekend dump to $35k and a wick to $30k.

[somac.]

Prepair for a possible max pain weekend dump to $35k and a wick to $30k.

Possible, but I think that would depend on how the traditonal markets do tonight.

And I think it is important to note that the main indexes are at key support. The market already knows that we have more than 4 rate hikes coming this year with cessation of all QE. It's possible that everything is near or at being fully priced in and the thing with rate hike cycles is that they are not actually bad for the markets. The bad part is what we have already had, and history shows that after that is done, markets go up with interest rates.

[NeuroticFish]

Well, the events described in this post happened. There was a short/long squeeze on the market and a further drop in prices below significant support levels:

Is there any good reason that the steady rise/recovery of mining difficulty is not visible at all in the latest evolution of the price?
I mean that we're almost back to all-times-high-difficulty and nobody seem to care. It makes me think that this movement could be a trap, but maybe it's just my hopes talking.

[somac.]

Well, the events described in this post happened. There was a short/long squeeze on the market and a further drop in prices below significant support levels:

Is there any good reason that the steady rise/recovery of mining difficulty is not visible at all in the latest evolution of the price?
I mean that we're almost back to all-times-high-difficulty and nobody seem to care. It makes me think that this movement could be a trap, but maybe it's just my hopes talking.

Zoom out on the chart, and you'll see that it is indeed a trap. The monetary system is designed to have constant inflation (not deflation i.e it's not possible to suffer a great depression), this means that long-term asset prices must go up. Take the S&P500, look at the last 30 years and imagine you bought every week no matter what the price was. >99% of those buys would be in massive profit right now. The system is designed for up and up only long-term, buy regularly every week for decades and retire with craploads of money.

[BitcoinBunny]

R.I.P Meat Loaf.

 

I have all his stuff.

Saw him many times live, all over the UK in fact.

He was rather good at performing rock shows with his band in the 90s and 200xs. His music was epic, especially the stuff with Jim Steinman.

Very sad to hear.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[greensheep]

Again some options expiry today, seems like every week there is an option expiring somewhere
Can anyone even keep the overview?

Those paper thingiez don't seem to do no good...

[BitcoinBunny]

Again some options expiry today, seems like every week there is an option expiring somewhere
Can anyone even keep the overview?

Those paper thingiez don't seem to do no good...

Everything surrounding Bitcoin that isn't Bitcoin is just a toxic piece of crap and a distraction. They are designed to make non holders money, or try to make money from BTC within existing retail markets which is just foolish when you think about it, make a quick buck and these distractions just eat away at BTC itself. Non of these things remain and almost all such things seem to come and go except for BTC itself.

Futures, ETFs, YouTubers, "evangelists", shitcoins, NFTs.

You name it....

[aysg76]

CB are you listening??



Not resizing it because want to pump with full pressure and don't break this barrier and go upwards.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

#Bitcoin investors have realised large losses during this sell-off, with net daily losses between $600M and $875M/day.
Whilst these are significant sums, they remain small relative to $1B+ losses realised during the May-June capitulation, and the deleveraging of 4-December.


https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1484445927888859136

[serveria.com]

Bitcoinwisdom has a new design?

P.S. Liked the previous look better as now there's a long list of shitcoins on the front page.

[tertius993]

It is amazing that the only coins that moved in this 2 month bear market are bought in the last 6 months

Curious. How are you discerning this?

Glassnode stats. They also publish weekly analysis including this indicator. They track each address movement with the exact datestamp. So, since any purchase/sell is related to such a movement, they can tell if it is old or new coins.

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-03-2022/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=woc_03_2022

I am somewhat dubious about the Glassnode conclusions:

1. they assume that every transaction is associated with a buy/sell action - clearly this is not true
2. they ignore exchange holdings when calculating LTH vs STH
3. they (obviously) cannot see the specifics of exchange buys and sells (as they are off-chain);
4. exchange volumes are highly likely to include the same coins changing hands multiple times - its not a one buy and then move off exchange type activity

Accordingly while I think it is very interesting it is easy to read too much into it.

[BobLawblaw]

[cygan]

all-in

[tertius993]

Question for @fillippone

When I buy MicroStrategy stock for the USD price a bitcoin is worth, how many bitcoins do I indirectly own?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR
- Market Cap: $5.252B (nasdaq closed)
- Bitcoin price: $41700
- As of 12/29/21 we #hodl ~124,391 bitcoins


$5,250,000,000 / 124,391 = $42205 per bitcoin. So you currently pay a ˜$500 premium, for the company?

Well,
This subject has been analysed many times in the thread:

MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

There you will find a spreadsheet with my computations:



There seems like the value of BTC is actually above the value of the share itself.
I am going to double check the computations, to see what’s wrong.
(This is literally the first thing I am doing awake).

You don’t seem to have allowed for all their debt.  They borrowed money to buy Bitcoin, at some point they need to repay it.

Probably by taking out another loan. That is the difference between BTC and FIAT. It makes sense to just keep borrowing more FIAT to pay off the previous debt as it continues to devalue over time. Try doing that with BTC and see where that gets you!

My point was not about how they would pay it back, merely that it needed to be accounted for when considering the valuation of MicroStrategy.

[somac.]

It is amazing that the only coins that moved in this 2 month bear market are bought in the last 6 months

Curious. How are you discerning this?

Glassnode stats. They also publish weekly analysis including this indicator. They track each address movement with the exact datestamp. So, since any purchase/sell is related to such a movement, they can tell if it is old or new coins.

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-03-2022/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=woc_03_2022

I am somewhat dubious about the Glassnode conclusions:

1. they assume that every transaction is associated with a buy/sell action - clearly this is not true
2. they ignore exchange holdings when calculating LTH vs STH
3. they (obviously) cannot see the specifics of exchange buys and sells (as they are off-chain);
4. exchange volumes are highly likely to include the same coins changing hands multiple times - its not a one buy and then move off exchange type activity

Accordingly while I think it is very interesting it is easy to read too much into it.

Well yes, but your not looking for perfect accuracy you're looking for consistency in the data over long time frames. This is what gives it relevance, and the chart posted matches up nicely with their other data saying retail did not move in strongly on the increase to 69k and LTHs did not unload coins in great numbers.