Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[strawbs]

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.

How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.

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[strawbs]

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

The process of buying this amount was not easy I had to call my bank because the transaction was blocked then I had to wait 20-30 minutes for the bank to answer me. After that the customer service guy tried to lecture me about how cryptocurrency is very risky to invest in. I told him I had been around number of years but he said he had to go through all of it. I then had to confirm that I wanted to send this amount knowing the risk. They wanted me to come into the local bank and confirm some details but I told them because of the snowy conditions that would not be possible. He then allowed me to go through verification and send the amount. This probably took me over 2 hours to complete because I was put on hold many times. But do you know what the biggest eye opener of this experience was? with Bitcoin I would not need to go through this waste of time confirming my details because now I am my own bank. I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment. I am both relieved and scared. I have a lot of faith and I think I have bought at the best possible time and before completing the purchase I was 99% sure this was the right thing to do but the nerves have kicked in and I think I am probably about 60% sure now.

This is great to read. Congratulations on making the greatest financial decision, perhaps of your life to-date. As others have said, don't get panicked by dramatic price movements (either up or down). Perhaps put a significant amount of your BTC into cold storage so you're not tempted to panic sell at any point. And remember that nobody who has held BTC for at least four years has ever seen the value of their holdings go down in fiat terms. Well done, go spread the word (EDIT - to clarify: spread the word about the superiority of BTC, but probably keep to yourself the fact that you own BTC, for now).

[philipma1957]

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.

How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.

Makes sense to me.

Mining ⛏ difficulty is the backbone of btc.

btc is created by converting energy to coin.

more difficulty means more power is needed to mine a coin.

thus the base value of a coin is determined by power needed to mine it.

He is making perfect sense.

Any one that does not agree simply should go for pos coins and leave this thread 🧵

how is that for fighting words.

Now I stand by that.



edit if you don't it means you don’t belong here as a btc person or a pow person or a satoshi person


second edit ✍️ it is okay if you don’t believe in the POW 💥 concept that satoshi coined when he first set btc into motion.

But the whole idea is energy is used to create wealth.

POW


not POS

[strawbs]

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.

How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.

Makes sense to me.

Mining ⛏ difficulty is the backbone of btc.

btc is created by converting energy to coin.

more difficulty means more power is needed to mine a coin.

thus the base value of a coin is determined by power needed to mine it.

He is making perfect sense.

Any one that does not agree simply should go for pos coins and leave this thread 🧵

how is that for fighting words.

Now I stand by that.



edit if you don't it means you don’t belong here as a btc person or a pow person or a satoshi person


second edit ✍️ it is okay if you don’t believe in the POW 💥 concept that satoshi coined when he first set btc into motion.

But the whole idea is energy is used to create wealth.

POW


not POS

Yeah, I agree with you regarding PoW etc, but that doesn't mean that mining drives price. Also, demanding that people should leave this thread simply for not agreeing with you might suggest that you yourself are less suited to a thread such as this which requires discussion. What a very odd position to hold.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

[Arriemoller]

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.

How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.

Makes sense to me.

Mining ⛏ difficulty is the backbone of btc.

btc is created by converting energy to coin.

more difficulty means more power is needed to mine a coin.

thus the base value of a coin is determined by power needed to mine it.

He is making perfect sense.

Any one that does not agree simply should go for pos coins and leave this thread 🧵

how is that for fighting words.

Now I stand by that.



edit if you don't it means you don’t belong here as a btc person or a pow person or a satoshi person


second edit ✍️ it is okay if you don’t believe in the POW 💥 concept that satoshi coined when he first set btc into motion.

But the whole idea is energy is used to create wealth.

POW


not POS

The market forces set the bitcoin price.
It's simple supply and demand, and the market don't care about miners expenses.
If for some reason everybody decides tomorrow that they no longer want any bitcoin and sell them all, the price will go to zero, regardless of how much power the miners use.

[icopress]

I don't remember taking the quiz previously.  I

I did take aysg76's quiz and maybe a few other forum or bitcoin related quizes over the years.

I would not mind seeing a bit more of a mixture of questions.. both bitcoin and forum related.. easy and more difficult questions.. and maybe a dedicated thread.. solicitation for question topics.. suggestions privately and in the thread... maybe once a year re-issuance.. Yeah.. maybe a lot of work.. but not a bad topic.. and surely there could be some fun with that topic too.. maybe throw in old and new questions.. and yeah of course, repeat test takers would likely get better results, even if they don't study...

It was a test run after which I changed about 5 more questions 

 As for the last quiz, it was posted in this thread (and since it didn't have a separate thread, it's likely you missed it). Anyway, We are Live!!

[Voting] Bitcointalk Community Awards: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382917.0
[Discussion] Bitcointalk Community Awards: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5277804
[Quiz] History of Bitcoin and Bitcointalk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5381367.0

[JayJuanGee]

Just back from a 2 week vacation, price down 8.5k in that time.

It's not too often a guy has two whole weeks to NOT look at the BTC price... .. or maybe to look.. but then not really be in a place to be able to do anything...


some of us should not be looking at the BTC price as much as we are.. but I can look at the charts, and I can see that on January 5 my first buy order was hit at $44k-ish, and I can see within the past 14 hours I had a buy order that filled at $33k-ish.. so I count those at 12 buy orders.. I suppose that if I had been on vacation, then I suppose I had not missed anything because all 12 buy orders filled.. but the price has not gone up enough to cause any triggering of sell orders since currently my first sell order does not start until $40k-ish.. at least for my current way of structuring matters.

I did not intend to buy any more Bitcoin but at these price levels (greed takes over) I am wiring fiat to the exchange today.

Fair enough... good that you have enough float for that.

Have had a catch up read through a selection of WO posts and in places detect a hint of fear even amongst 2 cycle hardened folks.

Hm?  Are we talking the normal ones who go into fear mode?  or new ones?  Frequently there are some new ones who come out of the woodwork, and other times, we will see some signs of breakings.. these are not easy times... gotta concede that much... I can imagine mistakes being made.. and surely we did see some posts of guys saying that they were selling a bit on the way down to be able to buy back lower.. not sure if that is going to work out very well.. but sometimes, we just hear afterwards about how supposedly "wonderful" it went.. hahahahaha.. if you could believe that?

Who banned Bitcoin this time now that China is completely banned out? oh! Russia.
A quick search of RT turns up a piece which gives no real cause for concern.
But it is enough alongside perfectly choreographed dumps to help panic sellers part with their coins.

You likely realize already that there is usually not just one supposed cause for any event that shakenings of weak hands, and for sure, there are quite a few folks who are coming to the conclusion that we already entered into the bear market.. so even if they are not selling coins... they are either waiting it out (before buying - presuming the price to be going lower for sures) and/or suggesting that others do the same.. and surely we likely realize that these guys are frequently on the side of having way the fuck too few coins and cannot even relate to why some longer term HODLers would not have any kinds of reservations to shave a coin off here or there as the BTC price is going up.. kind of a detachment from the asset class to NOT realize that it does not hurt to stock up a few extra coins when the price dips, even if the price might end up dipping a bit more in the future....

anyhow.. I am kind of getting into a $46k-ish arena before I am willing to suggest that the bottom might be in.. and surely.. not sure how long it might take to get there.. ?  We know king daddy could get there in less than 12 hours.. but it's really hard to have any ability to say that we might be well set up for that until after it happens... if it were to happen...and yeah, it could take weeks, weeks and more weeks for any kind of "surprise" UPpity to play out.  I am not proclaiming to know any of this.. except just to know that those things happen in bitcoinlandia from time to time, and if you are not in bitcoin when those price dynamics happen, then you likely will not get an opportunity to buy your previously sold coins (or the ones you failed to buy because you were "too busy" waiting because you are smarter than everyone else... blah blah blah.)

I do have some open orders

But really lucky guessing to hit 5 orders

Thinking first 3 are good imo

Last to on the lower side with a lowest of 23k (not exactly hoping to hit….. )

Just a worst case scenario imho…

I am thinking something similar.. if the most recent local bottom of $28,600 were to be breached.. probably the lowest that it could spike would be in the $23ks, and that surely would be a pretty decently long shot scenario.. that I also do not even expect $28,600 to be breached.. but hey in bitcoinlandia.. it can be helpful to be prepared for some of the more extreme scenarios.. even if we consider them to be long shots.

Lucky guessing targets, just if we go up I’m fine with it, if we go low I will end up with extra btc for cold storage…

Little question, op for everyone of from here ??
Where would be a smart to put 5 bids in order to BTD….?
Could maybe change my mind in my targets. Cheers..

...

I personally like to put them at equal intervals all the way down on the way down and don't even try to predict with any kind of precision.. but of course, if there are support strength points, then likely one would be above support strength point would be above $30k.. like maybe $31k.. and then another would be $29k--- ish (which is above $28,600).. ..

If $28,600 were to break then probably $26, 25k and $24k and $23k.. would each be possible support strength points.  .. really hate to think about down.. even though all of my buy orders have filled from $60k-ish through $33k-ish (which would be around 28 buy orders every $1k on the way down). so I only have about 13 orders left going down to $20k.. and really I don't want any of those remaining buy orders to fill..

I want to take all of that money off the table and out of the system (spend it on hookers, lambos and blow).. but I have not removed it, yet.. .. so hopefully, down is over.. so that I don't have to worry about any of those remaining 13 buy orders between $32k and $20k.. fuck that shit.

Actually.. why did we even go below $46k?  I would have preferred that my 13 already filled buy orders between $45k and $33k to have had also NOT been filled... fuck that shit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

$2,800 catastrophic bearish in 2018
$28,000 catastrophic bearish in 2022
$280,000 catastrophic bearish in 202x?

HODL!


https://twitter.com/bitcoinissaving/status/1485705391803617280?s=21

[JayJuanGee]

I mean.... I do deal in sh!tcoins as well....... But I buy at the f^cking bottom. or at least 5-10% away from it in worst cases. And my strategy is to wait at least 1 year before selling or minimum 5-7 months (depending on market momentum.)  And my other strategy is to no trade more then 1% per day, and that means basically every 100 days, you double your money. But I'm starting to fear stable coins and the traditional fiat, it might go nuts in the following months.    

You are so full of shit that I was considering that it might not even be worth any comment - but just in case some newbie might wrongly conclude that you actually know something... .. when it is mostly difficult to find you to post two coherent posts in a row... maybe a challenge to any member to find.. though.. not sure if it would be worth any prize for any member to be wasting his/her time so thoroughly in such a quest for something like: "Save the RF consecutive coherencenings"....

 

When will BTC price reach parity with WO page count........again?

You are thinking in the wrong direction PoolMinor...












You may well need a batman slap for the purposes of re-orientationing...











#justsaying.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Well, if you sell old corn, it's not really "the bottom"

That makes no sense OOM.

Anybody going to sell into this little pump? I see the stock market continues to bleed and worst case is we see a real massive dump coming. I dont know much about the stock markets. But it feels very different this time. Because the stock market pump after the covid crash was massive.

Every time feels different.

Good luck selling at the bottom.. you will need it.

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

The process of buying this amount was not easy I had to call my bank because the transaction was blocked then I had to wait 20-30 minutes for the bank to answer me. After that the customer service guy tried to lecture me about how cryptocurrency is very risky to invest in. I told him I had been around number of years but he said he had to go through all of it. I then had to confirm that I wanted to send this amount knowing the risk. They wanted me to come into the local bank and confirm some details but I told them because of the snowy conditions that would not be possible. He then allowed me to go through verification and send the amount. This probably took me over 2 hours to complete because I was put on hold many times. But do you know what the biggest eye opener of this experience was? with Bitcoin I would not need to go through this waste of time confirming my details because now I am my own bank. I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment. I am both relieved and scared. I have a lot of faith and I think I have bought at the best possible time and before completing the purchase I was 99% sure this was the right thing to do but the nerves have kicked in and I think I am probably about 60% sure now.

I appreciate your description, but seems that you would have already established a decently sized bitcoin investment over the past 7+ years that you have been a forum member, no? 

When I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I largely front-loaded DCA'ed for a year, and then at some point towards the end of 2014, I had contemplated cashing a portion of my 401k into bitcoin, and that would have largely doubled my BTC investment at that point.. and also brought down my average cost per BTC quite a bit.

After I considered the matter for about one or two weeks, I decided NOT to go through with such a large transfer of value into BTC, and part of my rationale was that I concluded that I had already established a pretty damned large amount of exposure to BTC - including considering that in relation to my various fiat related investments (which would have also included my 401k)..

I don't regret my decision.. even though I could have doubled the size of my BTC stash at that time because I made such decision based on my sense of my total situation and the information that I had in front of me at that time.

Of course, I have a lot of posts on this forum, so in some sense, members can see various ways that my ideas about bitcoin have changed over the year, and largely it seems to me that bitcoin is quite a bit of a better investment these days than it was in either late 2013 or late 2014.. even though we have had a whole hell of a lot of BTC price appreciation between late 2014 and present... so in that regard, whether you doubled your BTC stash or you increased it by some other amount - even 10% or 20%, there is some value in going through a process of considering the totality of your own financial circumstances. which surely would include considering your cashflow, your other investments, your view of bitcoin as compared with other possible investments, your timeline, your risk tolerance and your skills, time and abilities to learn along the way and to tweak your strategies along the way which may also include considering reallocating from time to time, trading and/or the use of financial instruments (including margin), and for me, I have never really been a big advocate of any kinds of gambling techniques, so I am frequently concerned about making any moves that are on the relatively BIGGER side of things.

Hopefully things go well for you, and I hope that your investment timeline for this additional injection is at least 4-10 years, and in that regard, I would have more confidence in the whole situation rather than if you might have been considering the possibility of turning much if any of your additional investment in less than 4 years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

The most simplest explanation is we won't have a blow off top.....

You should already realize that bitcoin is not simple.

I agree with you that it is possible that no blow-off will occur this time; however, there is a little problema with human nature and greed..

the bearwhale twats cannot help their lil selfies...

they manipulate the BTC price down lower and longer than it should be, and wham, bam, thank you ma'am.. another blow off top has just occurred.

I would not be too quick to write it off, even if it is possible that it will not happen, the odds are not really in your favor... and I am not even giving any shits.. because my finances and my psychology is fine (prepared) either way, but that does not mean that bitcoin is not going to end up doing what it tends to do.. which is get out of control..

again.. I don't give any shits about the extra money that I will be making in such scenario because I already have enough.. but the problem is that there is a kind of underlying situation that we have going on and that is the greatest wealth transfer in history.. so it seems quite implausible to be conjecturing that everything is going to go fine, smooth and dandy.. which is about the ONLY thing that does not happen in bitcoinlandia.

In other words, volatility is inevitable, including volatility to the upside whether we are prepared for such upside volatility or not.

Miner's revenue is the chart that needs to be observed.

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.

I don't buy it for one minute that price follows hashrate.. good luck with that theory..

By the way, miners speculate on price in terms of their incentives to mine, so sure they might even front run their hashrate out of anticipation of which way the price is going.. but they do not control price, even though you and some other believe in that theory (your not the only one for sure.. but not this cat)...

China ban actually set the progression of mining revenue back about 6 months.

I will grant that some of the China dynamics have been quite interesting in the last year.. but I doubt that it has really delayed much of anything.. and king daddy hardly gives any shits.. .tick tock next block.. etc etc.. .. in spite little tales about China fucking things up and blah blah blah.. it only served as an excuse for panic and the shaking of weak hands.. yet in the end, it did go to show how bitcoin has a pretty damned strong self-correcting mechanism for anyone who wants to strategize attacking it in various ways.. good luck.. you are going to need to use a lot of resources.. so sure, it might not be the last time that the BTC network is attacked.. and for sure there was some learning that came from such China attack situation including that some miners have been reconsidering their geographical distribution of their services and where they get their supplies in order that they will be in a position to be more profitable upon other attack situations.  yes, a variety of miner preparations in which some miners are going to put themselves in better positions than others to withstand and sustain an attack, and surely the amount of profits in the last year attracted a lot of miners too.. who will likely get washed out if the competition gets more fierce.. but will they last a year or two before competition gets more fierce? or will they get weeded out in a shorter timeframe?

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenue

Yes.. miners will reference some general trends, but they will also reference their own situation including how long they have been in mining and what equipment and facilities that they already have including its profitability and if there are ways to make it more profitable... .From my perspective there are surely some lagging indicator aspects that are connected with mining (even though you consider it as some kind of a leader..), but I surely do find it to be a good sign that miners continue to come into bitcoin mining and causing the hashrate and difficulties to continue to go up.. even if there have been some down periods.. but even the lower hashrates and difficulties of the period in 2021 did not disincentivize miners from continuing to mine, build their mining systems and to establish businesses around bitcoin.. which surely is not bad for bitcoin fundamentals..and likely inspires confidence in the bitcoin price whether it ends up playing out that way in the short-to-medium term or not.

By the way, I started talking about how I did not consider that BTC's spot price would be meeting the 200-week moving average any time soon and a tentative theory that the 200-week moving average may well go up another 3x before spot price meets it.. not easy to say with any certainty how these matters will play out.. but I am no where close to buying your theory (and others have made similar claims) that mining and hash rate are in any way leading in the directly indications of how much BTC prices might move in one direction or another or the extent to which spot price may well continue to stay above the 200-week moving average.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around.

How on earth did you come to such an erroneous conclusion? That makes zero sense.

Makes sense to me.

Mining ⛏ difficulty is the backbone of btc.

That does not mean that the BTC price follows mining or mining difficulties.  You can wish that hashrate leads all that you like, but makes hardly any sense and it's going to lead you to the wrong conclusions on a variety of occasions if you continue to believe such crazy detached concepts and especially if you make your BTC allocation or reallocation decisions based on such a lagging indicator.. and/or fail/refuse to account for indicators that are likely more predictive of BTC price dynamics such as stock to flow, 4 year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and network effects (mining is one of the 7 or so network effects, so ONLY one of the network effects factors)

For sure there are some good aspects in terms of monitoring the presence, role and incentives of mining, especially if you are in the business of mining... and figuring out the extent that mining might be profitable or not or more profitable than buying bitcoin directly without getting involved in mining.

btc is created by converting energy to coin.

more difficulty means more power is needed to mine a coin.

thus the base value of a coin is determined by power needed to mine it.

base cost of a coin should help miners to determine whether they are going to mine or not mine.... including help them to decide the extent to which they will expand or shrink operations or attempt to make their operations more efficient in order to attempt to be profitable.

He is making perfect sense.

Does not make sense to me.

Any one that does not agree simply should go for pos coins and leave this thread 🧵

Yes.. you are coming off as quasi-delusional, argumentative for the sake of it and spouting out bullshit and hardly tied to reality proclamations.. including your attempt to make a nonsense framework that either BTC price is lead by hashrate or otherwise anyone who does not agree with that way of thinking about the matter then believes in POS...   nonsense..  

Actually in some sense, people who buy bitcoin or even support bitcoin might not even need to know the technical background of bitcoin, or the difference between bitcoin and other coins in order to participate in this thread and to develop some rationale for their own decisions to allocate or partially allocate some of their value into bitcoin.

You are showing your own ignorance and leading into arrogance with those kinds of lacking in insight claims, especially worse when you try to proclaim that you understand bitcoin by asserting that you are a miner who supports and supposedly understands POW.. also probably have to question even if you understand POW if you are trying to assert that it means that miners are in control and leading the price blah blah blah.

how is that for fighting words.

Now I stand by that.

Yes.. stand behind bullshit frameworks (and show your ignorance).. that makes a lot of sense and makes you look real good...

It's a bit ironic that you have been in bitcoin for more than 10 years, but only recently you realized that it might be good to hold some coins, and now all of a sudden you are an expert on bitcoin because you had learned how to mine and spend bitcoin.. more than 10 years ago, but you only recently learned that HODLing coins was something that might be a good thing, in case bitcoin were to catch on...

Surely seems to be some strange claims that you are making... even questioning your past judgements and experiences, and then all of a sudden you are an expert about what kinds of beliefs qualify members to participate in this thread, too?.

edit if you don't it means you don’t belong here as a btc person or a pow person or a satoshi person

Fuck off with that nonsense...  .

second edit ✍️ it is okay if you don’t believe in the POW 💥 concept that satoshi coined when he first set btc into motion.

But the whole idea is energy is used to create wealth.

POW


not POS

You are repeating yourself, and also you seem to not even understand what kinds of frameworks you are creating or the trade offs between supporting bitcoin versus a shitcoin, participating in this thread or participating in bitcoin... .. and yeah.. you are giving permission for us to not understand even when we have to question your understanding.. and your supposedly being smarter than everyone else.


It should be pretty clear that quite a few longer-term bitcoiners have learned that bitcoin brought POW to the space, and so bitcoin is differentiated from a lot of coins by both its paradigm invention and application of POW including difficulty adjustments every 2016 blocks, and at the same that network effects including mining and other networking effects have grown around it... so you surely were creating some kind of false dichotomy when you are proclaiming that miners are leading bitcoin's price blah blah blah.. and that true believers in bitcoin need to sufficiently understand the power of mining, which surely any of us should be able to understand that mining is powerful, but also understand that a variety of factors - besides mining contributes towards BTC's price dynamics..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I don't remember taking the quiz previously.  I

I did take aysg76's quiz and maybe a few other forum or bitcoin related quizes over the years.

I would not mind seeing a bit more of a mixture of questions.. both bitcoin and forum related.. easy and more difficult questions.. and maybe a dedicated thread.. solicitation for question topics.. suggestions privately and in the thread... maybe once a year re-issuance.. Yeah.. maybe a lot of work.. but not a bad topic.. and surely there could be some fun with that topic too.. maybe throw in old and new questions.. and yeah of course, repeat test takers would likely get better results, even if they don't study...

It was a test run after which I changed about 5 more questions  

 As for the last quiz, it was posted in this thread (and since it didn't have a separate thread, it's likely you missed it). Anyway, We are Live!!

[Voting] Bitcointalk Community Awards: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382917.0
[Discussion] Bitcointalk Community Awards: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5277804
[Quiz] History of Bitcoin and Bitcointalk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5381367.0

Oh it seems that I was ONLY watching one out of 4 of those threads.. and I suppose that it was something that was not as interesting to me.. since it kind of gravitated towards a meta-type category.. I had noticed that one of the bitcoin talk Youtube videos had mentioned the community awards, so I probably had been aware of the 2020 vote and thread that was being referenced within that YouTube video.