Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

So.....

How the heck you all doing? Its been a minute right? I had a roller coaster of year in 2021. I think many did...all I can say is I am really glad its 2022 now. Time to move forwards again.

I met someone late last summer....at a point I didnt think there was anyone else to meet. It was a hot and steamy affair but doomed from the start. It took 6 months for me to admit we had absolutely nothing in common other than a desire to be in a relationship with someone.

She's a nocoiner...

That and the fact she had never seen Star Wars should have been a clue.

Hope springs Eternal.

Anyway...I hope this new Year finds you all in good health and good spirit.

Carry on.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

I met someone late last summer....at a point I didnt think there was anyone else to meet. It was a hot and steamy affair but doomed from the start. It took 6 months for me to admit we had absolutely nothing in common other than a desire to be in a relationship with someone.

She's a nocoiner...

Converting nocoiners is a worthy endeavor, captain - even if it should require some steam.
We know you tried your best.

Hope springs Eternal.

So does love. Steady on!

[Richy_T]

-snip-

Where'd you get your hat?

Where did you get that tile?

[cAPSLOCK]

* Few hours later *



Yeah, it's ~8k sats today so far just in fees.

OK, I'm sold. I'd like to run a LN node. I already have a bitcoin node running.
Is Umbrel my best choice?
Bob? cAPS?

My first lightning node was something I built by hand using Docker images on a NAS.  Lol.  That was a nightmare and I was lucky to shut it down and actually get my coins off of it.

Now I use Raspiblitz.  I think it a very nice system.  Stable, actively developed. A little "power-userish".

As Bob mentions Umbrel is also a well liked node-in-a-box.  I think it's a little more polished overall, but similar.

One interesting bit with these things are we are trusting the devs with an awful lot using any of these... I would DEFINITELY suggest doing things like verifying checksum of images and the like.  Because these "distros" are basically Bitcoin wallets with a huge attack surface.  If I were a hacker I would be looking for vulnerabilities in these os/sw distributions.  If you could find a crack in the armor you could certainly make a lot of stolen Bitcoin...

But I do not worry all that much.

One important choice in particular:  I cannot see any reason NOT to use Tor as a private node.  Putting these things behind TOR not only anonymizes them, it also improves firewalling and networking details right out of the box.

[cAPSLOCK]

So.  Updates to various Michael Saylor narratives.

And yes, I know he is (rightly) looked at with a certain amount of dubious caution.  And he SHOULD be.  He has enough Bitcoin now to do serious damage if he doex X, and he is most certainly NOT in the rag tag "be your own bank", "down with the Fed" type of libertarian idealist that many Bitcoinners like to gatekeep.  And yes I am accusing us of being exclusive and short sighted in this regard.  Because sometimes I think we look at Bitcoin as this Holy Land where only certain people should be able to go when in fact one of it's fundamental properties is it's blind inclusivity.  We can't be OK with Libertarians, Drug Dealers and Black Hats of all kinds without also welcoming Banks, Billionaires and dirty capitalists.

Ok that screed over with let me get to the recent tweaks to his narrative which are interesting.

He is now calling Bitcoin a:

Technically Sound
Economically sound
Morally Sound
Politically sound

Digital property system and instant  financial electronic ******** (insert the rest of his usual good sales pitch).

The bits he is hitting all the normie business folks and old money people with are the Technically, Economically, Morally, Politically sound ideas.

And this is good stuff.  He is also articulating why we do NOT want some company to run this network, and even dances around the idea that we do not want governments doing it either (Politically sound).  He is CLEARLY explaining why Bitcoin, implicitly explaining why ONLY bitcoin, and why not Government, or corporate issued moneys.

So for now I still see Saylor as a pretty good asset for Bitcoin.  And for that matter Jack Dorsey is also doing more good now than what was happening with his politically captured last business.

It is easy to imagine a situation in which these sorts of "frontmen" for Bitcoin could turn sour...  But for now I think they are still net positives... and with a system that lets enemies transact we kind of have to take them, right?

[d_eddie]

* Few hours later *



Yeah, it's ~8k sats today so far just in fees.

OK, I'm sold. I'd like to run a LN node. I already have a bitcoin node running.
Is Umbrel my best choice?
Bob? cAPS?

My first lightning node was something I built by hand using Docker images on a NAS.  Lol.  That was a nightmare and I was lucky to shut it down and actually get my coins off of it.

Now I use Raspiblitz.  I think it a very nice system.  Stable, actively developed. A little "power-userish".

As Bob mentions Umbrel is also a well liked node-in-a-box.  I think it's a little more polished overall, but similar.

One interesting bit with these things are we are trusting the devs with an awful lot using any of these... I would DEFINITELY suggest doing things like verifying checksum of images and the like.  Because these "distros" are basically Bitcoin wallets with a huge attack surface.  If I were a hacker I would be looking for vulnerabilities in these os/sw distributions.  If you could find a crack in the armor you could certainly make a lot of stolen Bitcoin...

But I do not worry all that much.

One important choice in particular:  I cannot see any reason NOT to use Tor as a private node.  Putting these things behind TOR not only anonymizes them, it also improves firewalling and networking details right out of the box.

Thanks for chiming in, Bob and cAPS!

My Bitcoin node (Bitcoin Core) has been running for years on a regular Ubuntu desktop workstation. It has Tor transport enabled and working - not sure that means it's behind Tor. I guess it's just a possible alternative.

I think I'm going with Umbrel for now. Gonna run it on a brand new Raspi4. I'm going to order the hardware later today or early tomorrow. I guess this means that my already running node, along with its already downloaded and synced blockchain data on the local Ubuntu drive, will be useless: the LN node will just reload/resync from scratch. Or maybe I will be able to copy at least the raw blockchain data from old node to new LN node, and have the latter "just" verify it. We'll see when the raspi+stuff arrive and I get around to set it up.

I will ask you guys for advice. A lot. You have been warned.

[eXPHorizon]

This is a really good Podcast for those who enjoy such.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdmDtqB46Jc&t


Georges St-Pierre, John Danaher & Gordon Ryan: The Greatest of All Time | Lex Fridman Podcast #260

[cAPSLOCK]

* Few hours later *



Yeah, it's ~8k sats today so far just in fees.

OK, I'm sold. I'd like to run a LN node. I already have a bitcoin node running.
Is Umbrel my best choice?
Bob? cAPS?

My first lightning node was something I built by hand using Docker images on a NAS.  Lol.  That was a nightmare and I was lucky to shut it down and actually get my coins off of it.

Now I use Raspiblitz.  I think it a very nice system.  Stable, actively developed. A little "power-userish".

As Bob mentions Umbrel is also a well liked node-in-a-box.  I think it's a little more polished overall, but similar.

One interesting bit with these things are we are trusting the devs with an awful lot using any of these... I would DEFINITELY suggest doing things like verifying checksum of images and the like.  Because these "distros" are basically Bitcoin wallets with a huge attack surface.  If I were a hacker I would be looking for vulnerabilities in these os/sw distributions.  If you could find a crack in the armor you could certainly make a lot of stolen Bitcoin...

But I do not worry all that much.

One important choice in particular:  I cannot see any reason NOT to use Tor as a private node.  Putting these things behind TOR not only anonymizes them, it also improves firewalling and networking details right out of the box.

Thanks for chiming in, Bob and cAPS!

My Bitcoin node (Bitcoin Core) has been running for years on a regular Ubuntu desktop workstation. It has Tor transport enabled and working - not sure that means it's behind Tor. I guess it's just a possible alternative.

I think I'm going with Umbrel for now. Gonna run it on a brand new Raspi4. I'm going to order the hardware later today or early tomorrow. I guess this means that my already running node, along with its already downloaded and synced blockchain data on the local Ubuntu drive, will be useless: the LN node will just reload/resync from scratch. Or maybe I will be able to copy at least the raw blockchain data from old node to new LN node, and have the latter "just" verify it. We'll see when the raspi+stuff arrive and I get around to set it up.

I will ask you guys for advice. A lot. You have been warned.

Quick bit of advice.  Go ahead and get the big RPi.  The 4gig?  (or is there a bigger one yet?)  The extra memory makes the initial chain validation process much faster.  You want a good strong power supply, and a good energy efficient SSD (and though 1g is fine for now... I would almost say just get the 2 so you don't have that hanging over you eventually... I dunno...).  Some external SSDs (like the M.2 in a little case kinds) are power hogs, but the little usually rectangular ordinary ones tend to be power sippers.  And you most likely want some decent cooling for the little thing.  They do not run badly under normal load... but during sync and other operations these little suckers get pretty dang hot.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Saylor interviews Dorsey...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdgP25UcHB0

[savetherainforest]

Saylor interviews Dorsey...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdgP25UcHB0

Something they said triggered me. And lead me to a strange path of thinking that 'Satoshi' is aliens. And if the inventors planned this that when they come back after 200-300 years and their species will inherit our planet because they have too much wealth. Of them having a big corporate-parliament council and they split 100K bitcoins to each.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

I think next bear market will happen before 2024 halving.

Bitcoin will definitely moon before that, it's inevitable.

To much bullish news.

[philipma1957]

I swear these EthTards just can't code!

I really can't wait until it goes fuill retard with the Piece of shit protocol and implodes.

In Second Largest DeFi Hack Ever, Blockchain Bridge Loses $320M Ether

The network has over $1 billion in total value locked and supports six blockchains: Terra, Solana, Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain, Avalanche and Polygon

https://blockworks.co/in-second-largest-defi-hack-ever-blockchain-bridge-loses-320m-ether/

niceeeee 👍

[cAPSLOCK]

I think next bear market will happen before 2024 halving.

Bitcoin will definitely moon before that, it's inevitable.

To much bullish news.

I think you are exactly right. We have not seen the current fundamental circumstances in play any time in the last 12 years.

It's not even just bullish news.  We are standing on the cliffs edge.  And we are about to go over with no chance of return, and I personally think (as I have said 100s of times) that it is going to be an astonishing transformation, and since Bitcoin *IS* value then the reflection of the coming growth is seen directly on the price.

One way of looking at it..,  Up until now the 4 year halving cycle has been the most important driver for the price.  It has been the direct driving variable change that has had a profound effect on what the coin is worth.  And because it is 1/2 of 1/2 of 1/2 of 1/2 it is a logarithmic progression.  The halving is exactly the same each time by percent, but NOT by value.  We lost the creation of 25 BTC per block the first time around, and then 12.5, and then 6.25, and the next one will only reduce the subsidy by 3.125 BTC.

So we have seen 93.75% of the magnitude in dollars already be released for the Bitcoin network.  Thus the vast majority of value is out there.  And the halvings as we go forward will be each a logarithmic order smaller than the one before.

At the same time as that inescapable perfect mathematical situation continues humming along we are seeing the demand for the asset standing on the brink of explosive growth. 

So, what I think is about to happen is the forces of the demand for Bitcoin are soon going to weigh MUCH MORE than the forces of supply, and the changes to it.  Demand will happen on a logarithmic curve as well, but I would think one with a different function and shape as the issuance curve.  I think demand = adoption, and adoption curves are famously "S shaped" with a somewhat long slow beginning (You are here! This was us) then a explosive rise in the middle (the majority come onboard), and then a long slow ending (as the last stragglers come online).

I believe when that middle section really gets underway that is going to VASTLY outweight the 4 year supply cycle shocks that have driven the price since inception.  Both because demand will be the stronger force, and as I said above the Supply has already taken ~90% of it's shot! 

The question is where are we on that S shaped curve.  I think we are well into the very front of it, but only at the beginning.  Maybe 10-20% into the explosive middle section.  We will soon see more countries come on board, more businesses, more investment tools (our favorite ETF topic) and just more organic demand from regular users like us.

So no more 4 year cycle.  At least not as the primary driver anymore.  It will take a backseat to demand eventually.  And I think it's going to happen SOON.  As in: I am betting it will happen during THIS cycle.  Or at least begin to.  Of course I could be wrong, and we could have one more boom/bust supply shock thing... but that just does not seen to make any sense to me.

And finally, there *IS* still significant risk of a devastating blow to Bitcoin's price because of geopolitical forces.  If the US Federal Reserve can pull the right strings in our government to try to kill bitcoin we could see a massive drop in value.  This is really the only scenario I see that would cause our fabled 80+% drop.  But it is absolutely a non-zero possibility.  So there is that.  But even then, that will only delay the inevitable and give the enemies of the USA a nice head start.  In some ways it will validate bitcoin my the tacit admission that it is the foe of the Fed that it indeed is.  So even the bad news would be good.

But this is why I did not sell when it got frothy up there this time.  One of the reasons at least.  I decided I would rather not miss the next rise than risk taking any profits.  And frankly I just don't need it yet.  And I think the psychological torture of 2017-2020 prepared me to handle the even bigger $ losses that I can expect this time even IF this is as low as we go...

Anyway.  I think you are right!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BobLawblaw]

6 million sats for 300 transactions? Paying those on-chain comes much cheaper.

Yeah, well, that's where the circle jerk part comes in. I'm trying to fill up nicehash for real cheap, but kelo keeps draining it, while simultaneously funding it.
Crazy shit, man.

 Ok. My strategy of setting retarded low levels on a drained channel to fill it back up again finally resolved with ln.nicehash.com. Took longer than 24 hours with the kelo circle jerk, but finally got it fully rebalanced to my side, where I can start cranking up the fees again.

 Babysat another LOOP connection open, and set fees to 1000/2000 just now - Let's see how long that lasts. Already drained 25% of the liquidity after setting it to 1000/1000 fees. Expecting this one to eventually get shut down because of the way LOOP handles their connections; not sure I'll be able to use my super low pricing strategy to refill the channel my way when it inevitably gets drained to their side...

 Assholes.

[savetherainforest]

6 million sats for 300 transactions? Paying those on-chain comes much cheaper.

Yeah, well, that's where the circle jerk part comes in. I'm trying to fill up nicehash for real cheap, but kelo keeps draining it, while simultaneously funding it.
Crazy shit, man.

 Ok. My strategy of setting retarded low levels on a drained channel to fill it back up again finally resolved with ln.nicehash.com. Took longer than 24 hours with the kelo circle jerk, but finally got it fully rebalanced to my side, where I can start cranking up the fees again.

 Babysat another LOOP connection open, and set fees to 1000/2000 just now - Let's see how long that lasts. Already drained 25% of the liquidity after setting it to 1000/1000 fees. Expecting this one to eventually get shut down because of the way LOOP handles their connections; not sure I'll be able to use my super low pricing strategy to refill the channel my way when it inevitably gets drained to their side...

 Assholes.

Well.... if u'r making them lower their fees as well to compete with you.. Then.. THAT IS GREAT NEWS!! CRYPTO CAPITALISM AT ITs FINEST!!!


*edit(): I would do what you do, just to stick it to others! Don't care much of the losses. And if break even, then I'm uber.super.ultra.mega GAME!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation