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Question: What happens first:
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336434 times)
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goldkingcoiner
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February 09, 2022, 07:31:30 PM
Last edit: November 11, 2023, 02:04:47 PM by goldkingcoiner
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)

*tweet quotes from the same guy with 323 followers*

I am not sure if Russia will be able to keep bitcoin under wraps as much as those various law announcements seem to require.  Russia is saying that using bitcoin is o.k. so long as you do it under their rules and through their official systems... but if you try to use bitcoin as it was intended (for kinds of private peer to peer transactions), then that would not be legal.

Good luck with that.  

Of course, the Russian govt likely knows their people and culture way better than some kind of outsider like yours truly - yet I am thinking that maybe the Russian govt feels that they have to frame their laws of "opening up to bitcoin" in those kinds of ways just to kind of keep some potential level of control over the whole thing?

From what little I know, I still have my doubts about the extent to which Russians are complying kinds of people (culture).  They seem to be the opposite.  They do not really like to follow rules, and so maybe that is why the Russia Govt has to appear so tough? We will see how it plays out, and I doubt that a government can ONLY make bitcoin acceptable for the elites and rule followers to the extent that they seem to have some target audience of "model citizens" that they are considering would follow the dictates.

I think the same goes for the whole world. Even China. Legal, illegal, that does not matter. Bitcoiners won't give up being Bitcoiners. If anything this "Russia wants to adopt Bitcoin" fud LCB is doing great things for the Bitcoin price already.

Fuck... covid got to my family.

I'm just getting rid of it...

Stay safe

Stay safe, stay healthy.

All Omicron did to me is an ear infection which somehow turned into tooth pain. Seriously WTF.

The next 24 hours are absolutely critical



Russian mentality be like:

I pick axe for woods,
I hit you in the head,
And then you die. Suka!


 Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy


*edit(): There is also some spitting and kicking of the dead body after that, but that is just 'post mortem satisfaction' cuz dog is dead. Tongue

Kinda cringed reading that.
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February 09, 2022, 07:46:33 PM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

Also, notice that spot price has (almost) never dropped below 200WMA, and, instead, has consistently stayed well above it,

BTC/USD 200-Week Moving Average (200WMA) Indicator



Graph source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

I agree with everything you said and even your framework - however, there is something not quite correct about an assertion like this:

"spot price has (almost) never dropped below 200WMA, and, instead, has consistently stayed well above it"

technically you are correct, but it seems that each of us should maintain some level of guard regarding both how close BTC spot price has come to (or below) the 200 WMA, and how it might do so in the future.

We can also see from the chart (and link) that you provided that there have been a few times in recent times in which BTC spot prices had either come close to the 200WMA or had gone below.  Almost the whole of 2015 was one of those periods, several months between December 2018 and March 2019 was another period, and finally our liquidity event of March 2020 had about two weeks of such closeness (and even 10 days or so below the 200 WMA.

For sure, the 200 WMA seems to be a quite solid way of considering how much of a cushion that any of us are likely to have in terms of how low the BTC price might go, and how long it might stay in such doldrums.. .,. and so in that regard, we likely should be prepared that they BTC price could go that low and could stay that low for a while (such as nearly a year in the 2015 case), and maybe it is not too likely that we are going to get another year like 2015, I surely would not rule it out... even though I agree with you that the 200 WMA is a pretty damned decent grounding regarding both extremes lows and feasibility regarding how long that there  might last - in the event that some kind of fatal flaw is not found in Bitcoin - which is seeming less and less likely with the passage of time....

As you may well recall, there are some guys who believe that the 200 WMA is something that a guy could profitably trade off of - and surely, Raja_MBZ is one of those who proclaims to have sold all of his BTC around $55k around May 2021.. and he had been waiting and waiting and waiting to buy back when the spot price meets the 200 WMA.. which seems considerably nutso to a lot of us and it also seems a bit too greedy and even emphasizing BTC's downside rather than UPside... so yeah for some of us guys including you AlcoHoDL who are not trading off the 200 WMA, we can recognize that the 200 WMA represents amongst the low of the lows.. and sure we might not even be waiting that long to buy BTC.. if we were going to be buying on the way down.. but hopefully also we would be somewhat careful selling any BTC between the 100 WMA and the 200 WMA (by the way the 100 WMA is currently just shy of $32k.

Of course, the longer that we are in BTC the more likely we are already to be quite profitable in our BTC, even if we are using the 200WMA and/or the 100WMA as our measures of our BTC portfolio value.. so at some point, we might not give too many shits even if spot price is approaching either of those two values, even though we likely realize that we are much better off to be cashing out some BTC when the BTC spot price is several times higher than either of those two values.... part of the reason why I consider some prudence for guys to take a wee bit of value off the table when we start to get several multiples above the 200WMA.. and especially if we actually do get around a magnitude above the 200WMA (which has happened historically, and it is not clear whether it will continue to happen).. and we need not take a lot of value off the table in order to provide some insurance to our BTC portfolio.  

Of course, guys are also free to ride out the waves in BTC price... and just wait before they get above their projected level of FU status before the start shaving off any BTC from their holdings  - or if they might have other ways of managing their BTC once getting close to their entry-level FU status or exceeding it.


Next topic.  Regarding current spot price:  with $44,738 in the past 15 minutes as I type this post, it seems possible that we could be testing and exceeding our current local high of $45,501 (maybe in the coming hourstm?).. and surely thereafter getting in the $46k to $50k range.. which at that point (if we end up getting there), I am going to have a decent amount of confidence that our current local bottom of $32,951 is in.. I am not quite comfortable to believe that our bottom is in, currently, even though with our ongoing UP price pressures it seems that the odds to be getting pretty damned decent that our bottom is in.
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February 09, 2022, 07:52:35 PM
Merited by icopress (2)

Fuck... covid got to my family.

 Hope everyone will be fine.  Keep them hydrated and make them rest.
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February 09, 2022, 07:54:05 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Was a billionaire yesterday...


Q:
How it’s possible they were so stupid to keep their private key on plain text on a cloud service?

A:



They were no less stupid than the average cryptocurrency investor who keeps his coins on CEX, online wallet, or cloud/email. A fool who has an empty wallet and a fool who has 100 000 BTC in a crypto wallet are still fools who face the same fate. They could have lived like kings all their lives and stayed under the radar, but it still required intelligence they obviously did not have.

The more that we find out, the more implausible the whole story seems -... yet we do know that some dumb peeps do exist in this world, but somehow they might end up coming across fortunes of BTC or some other cryptos.  Something is missing in this story in terms of transferring online and into one wallet rather than maybe having some coins spread in various other places..

I lol'ed

https://twitter.com/Cryptofung/status/1491235352195272706
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February 09, 2022, 07:58:51 PM


The more that we find out, the more implausible the whole story seems -... yet we do know that some dumb peeps do exist in this world, but somehow they might end up coming across fortunes of BTC or some other cryptos.  Something is missing in this story in terms of transferring online and into one wallet rather than maybe having some coins spread in various other places..

The only way i can try to shoehorn sense into this one is she has synesthesia, which means she is likely autistic which would explain both the really odd art/communication style, and could also account for an unusual ability to manipulate computer systems.

But yeah...  even that sounds like craziness, really.  Something/someone else has to have been involved.
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February 09, 2022, 08:01:21 PM


Explanation
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February 09, 2022, 08:34:19 PM

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully they are vaccinated and thus the impact will be minimal. If not then hopefully the hospitals in your neighborhood are past the peak admissions from January.
Yes, but I’m not vaccinated, because until now it seemed to me that this was just a convention ...

As a heavy smoker, I have severe shortness of breath in the mornings and evenings .... so for the most part I worry that my already deplorable lung condition will get worse (although I have not yet taken a test). No matter how stupid it may sound, my subconscious will feel better if it does not know about the diagnosis and will position the current state as a common cold, (although I admit I feel inner anxiety).

Well, if you could it would be nice to keep us up to date. As an objectivist I'd have to say it is what it is, so see where it goes.

Gotta say, I do miss smoking. Pipes were always the best, cigarettes were kinda blah and a good cigar was delicious.
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February 09, 2022, 08:40:04 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, is reportedly planning to offer a bitcoin trading service to its investor clients.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/blackrock-to-offer-bitcoin-trading-report
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February 09, 2022, 08:45:24 PM

Fuck... covid got to my family.

Not the first WOer, likely not the last to be touched.
Later mutations are more benign, I think your dear ones will be good soon.
Much good advice has been offered already, I won't say more except
Hodl your wits
And your corn
:-)
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February 09, 2022, 09:01:27 PM


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February 09, 2022, 09:11:39 PM

The only fear I have right now is, as an American, our stupid government is more likely to knee jerk and fuck up than I would like to think.

What they going to do?

Are they going to end up scaring bitcoin outside of the US?    Is there going to be any kind of distinction between Bitcoin and shitcoins?  or is that going to be part of the upcoming mistake?

*tweet quotes from the same guy with 323 followers*

I am not sure if Russia will be able to keep bitcoin under wraps as much as those various law announcements seem to require.  Russia is saying that using bitcoin is o.k. so long as you do it under their rules and through their official systems... but if you try to use bitcoin as it was intended (for kinds of private peer to peer transactions), then that would not be legal.

Good luck with that.  

Of course, the Russian govt likely knows their people and culture way better than some kind of outsider like yours truly - yet I am thinking that maybe the Russian govt feels that they have to frame their laws of "opening up to bitcoin" in those kinds of ways just to kind of keep some potential level of control over the whole thing?

From what little I know, I still have my doubts about the extent to which Russians are complying kinds of people (culture).  They seem to be the opposite.  They do not really like to follow rules, and so maybe that is why the Russia Govt has to appear so tough? We will see how it plays out, and I doubt that a government can ONLY make bitcoin acceptable for the elites and rule followers to the extent that they seem to have some target audience of "model citizens" that they are considering would follow the dictates.

I think the same goes for the whole world. Even China. Legal, illegal, that does not matter. Bitcoiners won't give up being Bitcoiners. If anything this "Russia wants to adopt Bitcoin" fud LCB is doing great things for the Bitcoin price already.

There might NOT be a lot of difference between what we are saying, if I understand you correctly, even though after googling it, I am not really sure what LCB is.

Maybe the part that we seem to agree upon is that ultimately, the outcome ends up playing out the same in terms of attempting to control King Daddy - but it is likely better to embrace it rather than fighting it.  At the same time, I cannot really appreciate that some of the nuance of getting to the "and then we win" stage remains a lot of people are likely going to get hurt along the way.. some of those people more innocent than others. 

So, I do believe that there is some value in attempting to appreciate how the various cultural variances play out, even if we might have differing perceptions regarding how the game theory might play out in one jurisdiction versus another, and surely many of us relatively earlier adopters hope that we do not end up being casualties towards any of the various kinds of pushback that likely play out, whether it is government actors or traditional rich folks or traditional financial institutions (private sector) that strive to put us in our place in a variety of ways.

I have not traditionally considered government to be the bad guy, even though in recent times, we have seen a lot of examples of various ways that they can fuck things up, and there does seem to be a decent amount of narrow interests who seem to be controlling various aspects of government - which has likely always been the case, but some of the various blatant contradictions have been create quite a few tensions with me in recent times, and likely there are a lot of folks (beyond yours truly) who are reassessing the various ways that they can survive and potentially thrive in spite of many ways that their own abilities and options are being challenged.. and maybe also questions regarding whether bitcoin can fix some of this and how do I hold and manage my own keys in such a way that I will be helped by bitcoin rather than becoming some kind of casualty or example that status quo "powers that be" seem to need from time to time.
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February 09, 2022, 10:01:23 PM


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February 09, 2022, 10:21:43 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1), hisslyness (1)

I got my Raspberry Pi delivered today. I'm still waiting for a few more parts before I can assemble it and set up my very own LN node. Hopefully I'll get the rest of the parts before the weekend.

I've spent the past few days reading guides and watching various tutorials about the lightning network. I'm very eager to get this thing up and running.
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February 09, 2022, 10:31:30 PM


The more that we find out, the more implausible the whole story seems -... yet we do know that some dumb peeps do exist in this world, but somehow they might end up coming across fortunes of BTC or some other cryptos.  Something is missing in this story in terms of transferring online and into one wallet rather than maybe having some coins spread in various other places..

The only way i can try to shoehorn sense into this one is she has synesthesia, which means she is likely autistic which would explain both the really odd art/communication style, and could also account for an unusual ability to manipulate computer systems.

But yeah...  even that sounds like craziness, really.  Something/someone else has to have been involved.

Recently, I did watch the 1988 movie Rainman.. Maybe something like that is going on?  Wink
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February 09, 2022, 10:35:14 PM

I got my Raspberry Pi delivered today. I'm still waiting for a few more parts before I can assemble it and set up my very own LN node. Hopefully I'll get the rest of the parts before the weekend.

I've spent the past few days reading guides and watching various tutorials about the lightning network. I'm very eager to get this thing up and running.

They still haven't told me a delivery date for the Raspberry Pi4. They must be selling like hotcakes. I'm also waiting for the SSD case. Early March. Go figure...  Roll Eyes
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February 09, 2022, 10:57:42 PM

Was a billionaire yesterday...


Q:
How it’s possible they were so stupid to keep their private key on plain text on a cloud service?

A:



Actually this looks exactly like someone that would be stupid enough to be used as a cutout and get busted but whoever was actually behind it is not stupid enough to use cloud storage.


Possibly they were setup with a deal involved to be the "masterminds".
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February 09, 2022, 10:59:41 PM

Jesus Christ WHO has not had covid???

Besides JJG, bots don't get covid...yet!

I think we've all had it by now, I guess it meets the definition of a pandemic.
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February 10, 2022, 12:11:11 AM



What they going to do?

Are they going to end up scaring bitcoin outside of the US?    Is there going to be any kind of distinction between Bitcoin and shitcoins?  or is that going to be part of the upcoming mistake?



Well... I see this with a lot of nuance.  But there are several things they could try to do that would be ultimately futile, but could cause some nasty ripples (pun not intended... but then...) as well as harm to certain individuals.  As a US citizen I could be in that bucket, sadly.

First there is the precedent of Executive Order 6102.  I think this is unlikely, but not impossible.  Right now all governments including the US gvmt are not doing well in the reputation and confidence arena.  And that kind of move by an administration that is fairly well hated by everyone but the choir would likely not go over well for them.  Also the Bitcoin virus has already spread so far and deeply that not only would this be bad for many businesses, but it would hurt individual government folks.  And there are also several other practical differences that I will not take the time to go into here.  But that is one route forward.

Another, is if they were to pull a China and ban bitcoin or more likely try to neuter bitcoin by regulation.  Again, they are way too late, and this will not stop bitcoin no matter what they do.  It will just hurt the US.  But the amount of stupid we have been seeing from our government as well as the amount of evil... well I would not put it past them.

At this point several people would say "Well it's just the US.  This can't stop bitcoin".  And that is true! But it could hurt the US and it's citizens (me!). But, on the other hand this would also be a reality they would see if there is a peanut in any of their heads.

Anyway... It is not impossible for there to be a bad move made on the part of my country, and honestly?  I like at least what my country USED to stand for too much to see that happen.  Plus if they take away everything I have worked hard for I will be double pissed.

But wait 'till you hear my flip side theory.  Hehe... It's a doozy.  

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