Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dabs]

When a person or entity buys a few thousand coins at today's (or last year's) prices, that means they don't need the money right now, and can probably see that the value appreciates in the next few years. They are not going to sell until it is in profit, or they might not sell for quite some time. And if it were Saylor, he said he is never going to sell.

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[OutOfMemory]

*conspirative glibberish*

Seems your frequent call out of "lies" are actually a good indicator for truth.
You're the proudhon of truth.

(sorry, i suck at comparisons, but most fellows here will get the point)

You suck in general, yo.
That said, your comparison is a total failure. proudhon lies out of his head trolling about Bitcoin since it was two digits.
Whereas myself, is all about exposing the uncomfortable truth. If you wish to label it “conspirative gibberish”, you’re welcome.
But we both know that you’re a shill-onian in a mission.

When delete your account?

You're just repeating the same BS without any arguments.
How do you expect anyone else but you would be able to understand what you actually mean, which is backed by... accusations out of thin air.

This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD

Current loss?
Unrealized "losses".
I also bought at $15k in 2017. How much was the "loss"?
Right: ZERO   As well as the "gain", because i'm still hodling the coins from this transaction.

When a person or entity buys a few thousand coins at today's (or last year's) prices, that means they don't need the money right now, and can probably see that the value appreciates in the next few years. They are not going to sell until it is in profit, or they might not sell for quite some time. And if it were Saylor, he said he is never going to sell.

Hi Dabs!
Did i miss your return? How do you do?
Saylor plans to lend BTC, so he will need a good amount of it to make $$$, at times when Bitcoin scarcity gets real. He doesn't ever need to sell.

[philipma1957]

This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3K5dmrkBMS8ZVgERMLwiw7PJuG8GWTbo8e

current loss = zero


he is hodling.

and he now has the opportunity to buy in at 41k

thus the 63k+41k = 104K / 2 or 52k price for break even.


Tell you what if he sells you can then say his loss is whatever. 404 mill I think.


Actually if I were the op I would delete his post as to say current loss is 404 million is a 100% lie.

I don't let liars keep there post.

 100% proof provided in this case.

What really annoys me is he disgraces the nam of my Late  great uncle ThorLief as Thour is a riff on Thor as is ThorLief.

At ThourLief it is okay to hate any coin you want and I have a lot of ways to voice hate or dislike of a coin.

LN still seems to be the largest threat to BTC  riff on that if you will. BTC I am not sure that LN will hurt BTC ,but I think down the road say 2050 or 2060 it will.

Once miner do not get many fees for the then smaller blocks they may vote for a fork and against the LN version of BTC I will likely be dead in 2050 or 2060. Time will tell but at least the LN argument against BTC could be true.

What you posted is a lie.

[AlcoHoDL]

This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD

[...image snipped...]

As others have already pointed out, "current loss" is irrelevant. Like OutOfMemory, a friend of mine bought at the very top of 2017 (at just under $20k). He was "currently losing" for the entire 3 years that followed. But he was smart and did not sell. Since December 2020 he is in "current gain" mode... In fact, there is no real gain or loss, since he has never sold a single sat.

Whoever bought the above 18,600 BTC is smart AF.

[philipma1957]

This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD

[...image snipped...]

As others have already pointed out, "current loss" is irrelevant. Like OutOfMemory, a friend of mine bought at the very top of 2017 (at just under $20k). He was "currently losing" for the entire 3 years that followed. But he was smart and did not sell. Since December 2020 he is in "current gain" mode... In fact, there is no real gain or loss, since he has never sold a single sat.

Whoever bought the above 18,600 BTC is smart AF.

Yep and ImThour's statement is 100% incorrect at this moment in time. Since he said currently losing and he is not currently losing a dime.

[empowering]

hmmmmmmm

Bitcoin is money 2.0


Bitcoin is property


etc

OK well I am your accountant, tell me what is your networth today ?


Well, at todays valuation, unless your accounting method is 1 btc = 1btc, then yeah, he has made a loss as far as any accounting method which makes sense.

Cannot have it both ways.


He bought high, and now , TODAY , it is worth less.


It takes mental gymnastics to make it anything other than that.


Own it ....

 BTC price fluctuates, that is what the Y-axis is for...  oh and it fluctuates over time, that is what the x-axis is for.


The value of future BTC, is unknowable... it could be $5000, it could be $1,000,000 + ....


There is a reason that we have price charts showing todays price.... because, it matters.


As of today, that guy is down almost half a billion dollars, his net worth , measured by today , is down half a billion dollars, it is what it is... own it.


I dunno why that is so hard for people swallow.


His opportunity cost, has depreciated by half a billion dollars..


Just imagine, if he waited, and bought today... and the market recovers to where he did actually buy.... then, he would have bought at half a billion dollars cheaper, (bought half a billion dollars more BTC) and then for example if he sold at the price he actually bought at,  half a billion dollars+ in profit... and so would be almost a billion dollars up. 


Say what ya like.... but I am sure he would rather have bought cheaper.... even if he intends to hodl.


It is not complicated, and someone pointing it out... is not an "attack" ffs


Fucking price moves both ways , get over it .


ffs


ok ok be a maxi, ok whatever you feel is best... but denying that the price moves both ways, denying that a guy who is down almost half a billion dollars, is somehow not "down" , as of TODAYS date... is peak delusional, peak "over invested" , peak cultish...


Stay honest ...BTC does not need smoke blowing up its ass by an internet cult, it is plenty plenty plenty impressive enough.

[empowering]

[empowering]

If in any doubt I am probably joking

[philipma1957]

hmmmmmmm

Bitcoin is money 2.0


Bitcoin is property


etc

OK well I am your accountant, tell me what is your networth today ?


Well, at todays valuation, unless your accounting method is 1 btc = 1btc, then yeah, he has made a loss as far as any accounting method which makes sense.

Cannot have it both ways.


He bought high, and now , TODAY , it is worth less.


It takes mental gymnastics to make it anything other than that.


Own it ....

 BTC price fluctuates, that is what the Y-axis is for...  oh and it fluctuates over time, that is what the x-axis is for.


The value of future BTC, is unknowable... it could be $5000, it could be $1,000,000 + ....


There is a reason that we have price charts showing todays price.... because, it matters.


As of today, that guy is down almost half a billion dollars, his net worth , measured by today , is down half a billion dollars, it is what it is... own it.


I dunno why that is so hard for people swallow.


His opportunity cost, has depreciated by half a billion dollars..


Just imagine, if he waited, and bought today... and the market recovers to where he did actually buy.... then, he would have bought at half a billion dollars cheaper, (bought half a billion dollars more BTC) and then for example if he sold at the price he actually bought at,  half a billion dollars+ in profit... and so would be almost a billion dollars up.  


Say what ya like.... but I am sure he would rather have bought cheaper.... even if he intends to hodl.


It is not complicated, and someone pointing it out... is not an "attack" ffs


Fucking price moves both ways , get over it .


ffs


ok ok be a maxi, ok whatever you feel is best... but denying that the price moves both ways, denying that a guy who is down almost half a billion dollars, is somehow not "down" , as of TODAYS date... is peak delusional, peak "over invested" , peak cultish...


Stay honest ...BTC does not need smoke blowing up its ass by an internet cult, it is plenty plenty plenty impressive enough.

value has  nothing to do with current loss.

no more complicated than that.

current loss is zero.


do not mix your terms.

[empowering]

....btw I had heard that Croatian wine was decent.... but their ham game is also on point....muy buena  .... hiccup

[Cryptotourist]

You're just repeating the same BS without any arguments.
How do you expect anyone else but you would be able to understand what you actually mean, which is backed by... accusations out of thin air.

All right. How can I prove it with arguments then?
After four three years of reading you guys - I began to notice patterns. Very distinct ones too, coming from very specific accounts.

BTW, I’ll tell you why and how I started thinking about this.
I took in the literal meaning - one of your buddy’s claims - that we need the shill-onians to get us to where Bitcoin is going. [yousuck and titter promo]
You know, that beggar shill. Guess who trolled with his avatar subtext - “I need 3 Dogecoins, urgently”. Ring a bell?
Finally I know that you guys have very limited intellect, and you’re so full of shit. It’s because you’re sort of young and that also seems to be very common between you.

Nothing is proof of anything of course. But my gut, almost always, serves me right - without a fail.
No more benefits of a doubt for you. You’re a shill-onian, end of story.

[empowering]

snip

value has  nothing to do with current loss.

no more complicated than that.

current loss is zero.

Sure... people know the cost price of everything and the value of nothing


However.. it is not called a "value chart" ... its called a "price chart"

Like I am kinda donkeying around here, but alas, the guy if he sold today, or had to report today for accounting purposes.. is down, like all jokes aside .....

Tomorrow, he could get squashed to death by a fattie that did an accidental sitting on them, who knows what happens tomorrow.

Today though, that guy is down half a billion dollars....

Probably NOT the worst problem he could have , and yes tomorrow or next month he could be at break even again... but today the bro is down.


Try paying for shit with your unrealised p/l  , it does not work


Down is down, and up is up... like when people are praising this guy in a few years , about his amazing gains, which I am sure they will be... then he will no doubt be the first to say " I was down half a billion dollars , and now I am up 2 billion dollars"   and you are not going to say to him... "bro you ain't in profit until you sell bro"

[BitcoinBunny]

This has to be the longest Michael Saylor talk yet at almost 4 hours, recorded at his $30 million home.  
Some pretty good points early on already from what I've heard.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC43pZkpTec&ab_channel=LexFridman

[AlcoHoDL]

The thing is, no one can predict the future. That's why there's the saying "the best time to buy Bitcoin is now." The guy bought 18,600 BTC and then the price dropped 35%. It could have just as easily gone the other way. Endlessly postponing buying BTC in the hope that "the price gets lower," you may end up never buying at all.

In 2-3 years' time, the guy who bought 18,600 BTC could be sitting at a few billion dollars' worth of BTC. It could be the smartest investment he's ever made, even if he's "currently losing"...

[empowering]

The thing is, no one can predict the future. That's why there's the saying "the best time to buy Bitcoin is now." The guy bought 18,600 BTC and then the price dropped 35%. It could have just as easily gone the other way. Endlessly postponing buying BTC in the hope that "the price gets lower," you may end up never buying at all.

In 2-3 years' time, the guy who bought 18,600 BTC could be sitting at a few billion dollars' worth of BTC. It could be the smartest investment he's ever made, even if he's "currently losing"...

I totally agree...

However, today he is not "currently losing" , he is just currently losing. (as much as a guy with that much BTC can be considered "losing " lol)

It is what it is,  I am donkeying about, playing devils advocate, whatever....

But, price moves in both directions.

This is not a bug and it is definitely a feature

Y'all realise that some people make/accumulate more BTC, when the price moves down right ?


It is not an "attack"  


Jus facts.


btw Viva la BTC !!!!  


Nothing wrong with some dry powder

[OutOfMemory]

I'm still subscribed to a freelancer website (since 2008), didn't cancel my account because of ... why exactly? IDK.
In today's mail:

Crypto Trading Bot (ID: stripped)
Looking for an experienced coder to build a crypto trading bot that will run on a AWS server. Must have experience in block chain technology
Required Skills: programming, amazon aws, cryptocurrency
Fixed Price Budget: $5k-$10k

 

Off for watching Legion Season 1. Thanks, STRF 

[NoorulHuda]

IMF Warns Russia Could Use Bitcoin Mining to Evade Sanctions
https://decrypt.co/98171/imf-warns-russia-could-use-bitcoin-mining-to-evade-sanctions

[empowering]

IMF Warns Russia Could Use Bitcoin Mining to Evade Sanctions
https://decrypt.co/98171/imf-warns-russia-could-use-bitcoin-mining-to-evade-sanctions

Here we fucking go......

now this IS an attack, and it is an attack from folks who are salivating, wanking , smeagoling, desperate , for any opportunity , any disaster, any tragedy, any excuse.... to stick the knife in.  

[JayJuanGee]

A "nice" Cryptotourist?  wouldn't that be an oxymoron (pun intended)?

Nah.
Nice to see you try to tackle the Greek language.

That was Greek?

I thought that I was typing in English.

As an added thought, your quants would feel right at home if they were programmed in Greek. #just.saying

Oh?  

You might know better than me.

Secondly:  Hypothetically going into JJG comparison mode, would call for long?  deep?  mean? or some other approach?

Wait. I was only referring to the daunting “walls of text” - in my usual personal style - insulting n all.

That will teach you.  If that's possible?

Maybe I should not be asking the above questions, right?  You know there's an expression about not feeding "them," right?  

I make sure to feed all my pets on the WO. That includes you too.

Sounds like you have "control (sense of superiority) issues," if you believe in that "pet" theory.

[...]

I am not even saying that the 200-week moving average might not be touched before we get another ATH...

[...]

If/when the 200-Week MA indicator is touched, it will be the third time in Bitcoin's 13-year-long history.

1st touch: 3-Sep-2015 (200-Week MA: $234, Spot: $231)
2nd touch: 12-Mar-2020 (200-Week MA: $5488, Spot: $5143)

There was one more time that the 200-Week MA was almost touched: 14-Feb-2019 (200-Week MA: $3319 Spot: $3583). This, together with the 2021 ATHs could be seen as evidence to support the bearish scenario described below.

Touching the 200-Week MA indicator is a rare event, which, based on past historical data, appears to possess some useful properties:

I will agree that touching the 200-week moving average isn't that common, but I would 1) characterize it happening more frequently than you are describing it and 2) agree with your overall point that it might not even be guaranteed to touch it in the future.

It seems to occur every 4 years or so, and I think that the March 2020 touching event was a bit of a quirk.

2012 - right around 6 months the BTC price hovered around $4.

2015 - around 10 months the BTC price was in the lower to mid $200s.

late 2018 until April 2019 - BTC price in the upper $3ks

March 2020 - BTC price was below $5k for only about a week and a half.

By they way:  We are using the same website for our analysis of the 200-week moving average, so it is not as if I should need to provide that chart again... right?  But we are discussing the factual representations a bit differently, our conclusions are not very much different, except some "technically quibblings".. it seems.

1. Periodicity — Its occurrence correlates with Bitcoin's 4-year Halving cycle. Specifically, it appears to occur some months before Halving.
2. Correlation with ATH — ATHs tend to occur about 2 years after the 200-Week MA touch events.

Bullish scenario — Based on the dates of the above 200-Week MA touch events, the ATH associated with the 2nd touch may not have occurred yet (the 2021 ATHs happened too soon and for odd reasons, and do not quite satisfy the 2nd property above). In fact, according to the 2nd property, the next ATH should come around this time (1st half of 2022). It is possible that this has not yet happened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other world events. Based on the above, it is reasonable to expect the next ATH to occur sometime in 2022.

Bearish scenario — If what Jay describes as a possibility in the quote above actually happens, i.e., that the 200-Week MA is touched before we get another ATH, then this would shift upcoming events further into the future, by treating the 2021 ATHs as the main ATH events of this cycle. Specifically, the next 200-Week MA touch event should occur sometime in late 2023 (say, 6 months before the Halving of March 2024—property 1), followed by the upcoming ATH, which should occur around 2 years later (property 2). This gives us an expected ATH date of late 2025.

Without disregarding the bearish scenario, I'm more inclined to place my bets on the bullish scenario, given that we are still somewhat early in the 4-year cycle, and lots of things are happening in the world that could be putting a downward pressure on price, and thus inserting a time lag in the upcoming price action events. However, anything is possible, really, and we could be in for a long wait to reach ATH and beyond. Regardless, I'm not worried at all. It's not an IF, but a WHEN, and it will certainly happen "soon" in a monetary investment timescale.

GTCTTWW — HoDL.

[Numerical Data Source] LookIntoBitcoin — 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap

I don't disagree with any of the rest of your framings... including your weigh the possibility of upside scenarios and downside scenario - as well as considering that upside scenarios have ongoingly good chances of happening... even if they are no where close to guaranteed in terms of how far they will go or when they might happen, and even if we were to consider some of the downward pushing of the BTC price, those kinds of pushing of the BTC price down can actually end up having the BTC price explode upwardly - contrary to the desires of some of the folks ongoingly attempting to push BTC prices down when they seem to not want to go down.

[vapourminer]

This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD
[...]
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3K5dmrkBMS8ZVgERMLwiw7PJuG8GWTbo8e

what so we are r/bitcoinbets now?