It has been said. So many times.
The next XXX are critical!
At the crux of the two big model types for Bitcoin price. Bulls vs bears. Each model has some interesting, even compelling sub varieties. Some able to exist WITH the others, some invalidating the others one way or the other. The point of this post is we are not going to have to wait TONS longer to kind of find out... For example PlanB's model below has a real shelf life on it, and so do all the others based on the prevailing cycle theory. We are at the halfway point in this 4 year cycle. It will be under a year to really know what the overall direction is. And that is the max, I think.
The Bullish scenarios:-PlanB's S2F model, and an average price of right around 100k this cycle (I think that's it?) meaning we should see a fairly good run in the near future. And the a price oscillating around that ~100k locus for most of the remainder of this halving, and then the gears slowly turn for the next one.
-The Supercycle/S-curve and related theories (Preston Pysh, Dan Held, cAPSLOCK
et al). In this one adoption drives the price astonishingly higher at a crazy pace, most likely outpacing PlanBs 100k center and breaking it to the upside. Things like Nation state adoption, and much greater institutional adoption (Spot ETFs, 401k allowing corn) This could be about to happen, or we might have to wait one or more cycles further before we see it. I thin one interesting aspect of this idea is it can come at any time. It is not dependent on the 4 year cycle. It is more dependent on adoption, and a singularity of buying pressure.
The Bearish scenarios:Modified cycle theory/standard TA (DaveTheWave? LFC). We did not see the type of top we would thought possible based on past bullish multiples. Instead we had a more reasonable downcurved log sort of function. Similarly this cycles pullback will not be the 80-90% type but something more like what we have seen so far (40-50%) with the possibility of a capitulation phase that dips further. Since this is part of a 4 year cycle it will take a little longer but when zoomed out look like one of the dips to 3k-ish during the end/middle of the last cycle. A last shaking off of the weak hands before the next run.
Standard cycle theory This one is already possibly invalidated for the top. And actually we should see one more push really... to get Bitcoin to a higher multiple before we drop 80-90% again for the next run. Interestingly many are still calling for the BIG BEAR part even though we never had the bull we would expect. This continues to support the invalidation of this one since an 80% drop from 69k would put us WELL BELOW the last cycle top which has never happened in the history of Bitcoin.
Oh yeah let's not forget:Bitcoin is a bubble! (Proudhon, Various asschapped goldbugs, that weird dancing gay space man going blblblblblblb daht dah dah! Bitcoin is a bubble!) We are going to zero! Soon!
I personally rank the possibilities with a bias towards the Supercycle, with the modified cycle theory being a fallback in case THIS TIME is not going to be the supercycle run. I see the modified cycle theory as stronger at this point than I did 6 months ago. But I have not heard any fat ladies yet... And Bitcoin is nothing if not the master rug-puller of everyone's pet theories. If we do not see a lot more adoption in the next year or two that drives price in a direction that breaks the cycle of the last 3 halvings, then I believe we will see it on one of the next ones. And I am personally good either way. I don't need any more value to be in Bitcoin for my own personal security, and that is nice. I would really like for more recent adopters to also get a taste of that before we are all done... and frankly the possibility that we have seen most of Bitcoin's price appreciation already? Seems like nonsense to me!
Hold!
Poll
