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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26363862 times)
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Biodom
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May 16, 2022, 04:54:40 PM

To discuss planB latest musings, i have to say that I am in agreement that actual bull market peak was in April 2021.
There was a small increase in ATH in December, but it was basically a "reactionary" top with no strong momentum.
This means that cycles continue at a regular ~4 year interval, hopefully (maybe with some false starts as in 2019).

planB: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1526129846723698688  (@Gachapin already posted the link, I just repost it to reference what I am talking about).
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May 16, 2022, 04:55:58 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1)

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced that 32 central banks and 12 financial authorities are meeting in the country to discuss Bitcoin.

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Late Sunday night, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced on Twitter that 32 central banks and 12 financial authorities from 44 countries are to meet on Monday, May 16, to discuss financial inclusion, digital economy, banking the unbanked, El Salvador’s Bitcoin rollout and its benefits in the country.

In follow up tweets, the president announced that the Central Bank of São Tomé and Príncipe, Central Bank of Paraguay, National Bank of Angola, Bank of Ghana, Bank of Namibia, Bank of Uganda, Central Bank of the Republic of Guinea, Central Bank of Madagascar, Bank of the Republic of Haiti, and the Bank of the Republic of Burundi, Central Bank of Eswatini and its Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Jordan, Central Bank of The Gambia, National Committee of Banks and Seguros of Honduras, Directorate General of Treasury, Ministry of Finance and Budget, Madagascar, and the Maldives Monetary Authority are among those that will be attending.

Bukele added that the National Bank of Rwanda, Nepal Rastra Bank, Sacco Societies Regulatory Authority (SASRA), Kenya, State Bank of Pakistan, General Superintendency of Financial Entities of Costa Rica, Superintendence of the Popular and Solidarity Economy of Ecuador, and the Central Bank of El Salvador will also be in attendance.

On Friday, May 13, the Twitter account for Bitcoin Beach announced that “Central bankers from Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Burundi, Congo, Costa Rica, Egypt, Gambia, Ghana, India, Namibia, Senegal, Sundan, Uganda, Zambia and 25 other developing countries are getting on planes today to fly to El Salvador.”
JayJuanGee
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May 16, 2022, 05:03:56 PM
Merited by OutOfMemory (2)

You really seem to not know nuttin...as far as I can tell.
We all know nothing Jay. Only things we think we know. That includes your silicon highness too.

Interesting.


Very, very interesting.


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May 16, 2022, 05:04:59 PM


Explanation
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May 16, 2022, 05:10:10 PM

Voted $40k+ in the poll (as a retarded hardcore permabull).  Cool

Meanwhile, got some pics of the upcoming 100k party from a time traveler.  Grin



So frequently while going through consolidation periods (and corrections), they seem like they are taking forever to play out.. and yeah, maybe we need to stop pondering 100x or even 50x or 20x.. even though 20x from here ($30k-ish - which would add up to $600k) seems more than doable to me... even though it could take 4-8 years to play out - and I don't even have any problem with 20x playing out in 8 years.. (even though I might no longer be alive because even the implications of the picture involves pondering various health implications with the passage of time.

There may well be some difficulties getting our momentum to revert back to UPpity since we have fallen below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at about $35k)... so getting above that first and foremost might help to establish if the bottom is in.. and then moving further above the 100-week moving average might allow us to consider whether we have gone back into possible UPpity mode... How long will these happenings take?

Remember our little correction between November 2018 and then our reversions to UPpity that happened around April 2019.. that was about a 5 month turn-around, which does not really seem too bad, upon retrospect.. but those felt like a long 5 months while we were going through the process of figuring out if the trend was going to revert to UP....

I hate to sound like a bear.... so maybe I can try to frame potential optimistic reversals that might happen as quickly as a month to play out, but that seems way too optimistic so in that regard, we know that the worser case scenarios for reversal could take longer than the 5 months we experienced in the playing out of that 2018/2019 situation.

By the way, about a month ago, I had noticed that the 200-week moving average was moving up around $30 per day, and now it seems to be moving up around $15 per day.. so for sure lower BTC prices does contribute towards that 200-week moving average moving up at a slower pace (even though it does ongoingly tend to move up since the BTC price does ongoing tend to trade above it - at least so far in our 8-ish plus years of BTC trading history that has established a 200-week moving average in the first place (there needs to be nearly 4 years of prior trading history, just to establish a 200-week moving average)).

Oh my, crazy times we're living in - JJG turning into a bear, proudhon predicts $70k soon (contrarian indicator) OMG we're in trouble boys!  Grin
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May 16, 2022, 05:42:26 PM
Merited by vapourminer (3), JayJuanGee (2)

Lightning Network a thread to BTC.



I do not know why I am compelled to do this, but this particular FUD is so annoying.  I just want to point out why it is wrong.

Once the block subsidy is very low, or over, then fees will be what pay miners.  If we continue on with blocks the size they are fees will go up quite a bit.  This will not matter because it will be being used as the settlement layer.  Transactions will be batched by LSPs, and other people willing to pay high fees to enshrine transactions in the immutable layer.  It is conceivable that transaction fees could end up in the thousands of dollars (by today's failing standard).

The circular nonsense people believe about this is annoying.  You can;t have both.  If lightning and other 2nd layers are a success then there will ALWAYS be transactions in line to get on the base layer.

Now I am sure someone MIGHT be able make a good argument why fees will not ever be enough to support the miners.  But so far I have never heard it, and THAT is certainly not it.

The reality is it may be bad for btc and mining.

The reality we were whaling back in spring of 2021 over 68k big fees in block and miners were counting their soon to be riches.

The reality is LN got actived  more completely in spring of 2021 we have not had 1 btc fee blocks since that happened and BTC has pretty much crashed to a 30k level.

But that is short term let us wait and see if btc comes back.

If it does not than LN will have done a lot of harm to BTC

Most people do not understand what LN will do for or against miners since the time period of wide enacting is only about 1 year.

My gut is it is a terrible idea since that second layer (LN) is very much like staking but I simply do not know much about the world. I will wait and see if 1 btc fee blocks ever come back like they used to do.

I think you may not be thinking enough levels deep.  The very first email response to Satoshi's announcemnet laid out the problem immediately:


A couple years later Hal Finney made a similar point:

Actually there is a very good reason for Bitcoin-backed banks to exist, issuing their own digital cash currency, redeemable for bitcoins. Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain. There needs to be a secondary level of payment systems which is lighter weight and more efficient. Likewise, the time needed for Bitcoin transactions to finalize will be impractical for medium to large value purchases.

Bitcoin backed banks will solve these problems. They can work like banks did before nationalization of currency. Different banks can have different policies, some more aggressive, some more conservative. Some would be fractional reserve while others may be 100% Bitcoin backed. Interest rates may vary. Cash from some banks may trade at a discount to that from others.

George Selgin has worked out the theory of competitive free banking in detail, and he argues that such a system would be stable, inflation resistant and self-regulating.

I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash. Most Bitcoin transactions will occur between banks, to settle net transfers. Bitcoin transactions by private individuals will be as rare as... well, as Bitcoin based purchases are today.

Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain.

That's the crux.  That is the point of the blocksize wars.  And there has been disagreement here forever.  It can be argued that Satoshi himself even seemed to intend for Bitcoin to scale "on chain".  But we have realized over time that this is not possible.  You cannot have a broadcast network broadcasting 10,000 TPS to a immutable ledger without centralizing.

Therefore... IF we scale to where the whole world is using Bitcoin as the foundation of a payment system, and the blocksize remains where it is now then block space is going to become EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE.  Because there will be a huge demand for base layer transactions. Put another way, if lightning (and other layer two systems) get a large amount of traffic then the node operators are going to have to pay the miners to settle channel balances.  And the miners will be setting those fees. 

In fact, if we are going to keep blocks small the ONLY way bitcoin survives is for base layer fees to go up to replace enough of the subsidy that mining stays worth it.  In that sense layer 2 does not "steal income from miners" it ENABLES it.  If we can only have 3,500 transactions a block max, then we will need to see fees in the ~$200 range to replace the current subsidy.  And the only way to justify fees like that is to have a 2nd layer on which trivial transactions can take place and to use the base layer for settlement.  Lightinng will not have hurt the miners... it will have saved them.

And the argument that we should increase blocksize enough to handle all the transactions... well enough has been written on that.  And the reality is it would still be technically quite difficult to have that much traffic being broadcast to EVERY node each 10 minutes.

Not to mention the fact that 10m is not fast enough for small transactions.  Buying a car?  No problem we can sit for a while at the dealership.  Buying a bowl of Pho'.  Nope.  Takes too long.

So the puzzle now is how to use bitcoin in a trust minimized way on a second layer from which settlement can take place on the base. 

I also wonder if we might see the consensus emerge for increases to the block size.  Obviously this is a contentious topic and some believe we can never see it happen because of the code becoming ossified. But if that happens, though it will not turn Bitcoin into being able to do broadcast layer microtransactions, it WILL at least allow for more transactions, and therefore more total fees per block.  As tech advnaces I think it will not be too long before the chain and network could su stain a 3-20x increase in resource needs.

You are a miner.  How will enabling millions upon millions of transactions a day not increase demand for Layer 1 space?
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May 16, 2022, 05:43:28 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Ben Cowen...not just about bitcoin..his numbers hurt my 'inner child'  Smiley
linking from the point he starts talking about btc specifically:
https://youtu.be/S-tKFGSrDYI?t=918
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May 16, 2022, 05:51:29 PM

Unfortunately for them their 80k BTC also couldn’t save LUNA

Reserve before crash: 


Reserves after crash:


https://twitter.com/lfg_org/status/1526126703046582272?s=21


I would also be interested to know why the Tard Held Shitcoins?
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May 16, 2022, 06:01:45 PM

If you want a <5s/b tx right now you will need to wait several hours. 

Fucking Lightning channel waiting to open for almost 3 days now at 1sat/vb. Don't feel like bumping the fee for <reasons>

Damnit.
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May 16, 2022, 06:05:04 PM


Explanation
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May 16, 2022, 06:06:34 PM

Fucking Lightning channel waiting to open for almost 3 days now at 1sat/vb.
That's why I usually pay a fraction more than 1 sat/vbyte. 1.1 would have been enough to confirm a day and a half ago.
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May 16, 2022, 06:09:20 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

So very much like staking. Except better staking, as you get your coins at the time of transaction.

Except for edge cases like closing out channels with unbalanced liquidity. eg: I open a wumbo channel that gets totally drained down to 100k sats, I close the channel, and I only get back 100k sats until I wind down the entire node - to the best of my understanding.

Very VERY irritating.

I have about 0.3 BTC in a "quantum state" right now, and am hesitant to load up more liquidity to make up for the "shortfall"

The Lightning Network really pisses me off, but LNDg 1.1.1 being included in Umbrel now makes me a happier camper.

For now.

Autofees FTW.



Fucking Lightning channel waiting to open for almost 3 days now at 1sat/vb.
That's why I usually pay a fraction more than 1 sat/vbyte. 1.1 would have been enough to confirm a day and a half ago.

I don't know why I didn't think of this. Feeling kinda more retarded than usual ATM. Thanks for the great tip, brother.
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May 16, 2022, 06:22:55 PM

If you want a <5s/b tx right now you will need to wait several hours.

Fucking Lightning channel waiting to open for almost 3 days now at 1sat/vb. Don't feel like bumping the fee for <reasons>

Damnit.

Ah... I might need to move a little pile of corn over to the nodes to reciprocate...  All those transactions will eventually clear...  It's down like 30% from the weekend.  -eidt- wait no... it's down like 65%...  My mempook is only like 30 blocks deep right now...
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May 16, 2022, 06:26:53 PM

[edited out]

I have been in this since 2013 with large ups and downs in my holdings (I have always had some BTC, never a lot, never less than several) so now I'm not really looking at allocations compared to other assets nor changing it depending on the price, I want to accumulate more without spending too much, so I guess I'm doing an allocation for new available fiat

I find this explanation a bit confusing, even though I understand that guys can start from all kinds of place in terms of both their finances and their view of bitcoin as compared with other assets (whether referring to other crypto currencies or other traditional asset classes).

From my perspective, it seems to me that even though you have been into bitcoin since 2013, you still seem to have quite a bit of foggy or muddled thoughts in regards to how to go about the matter, and I am not meaning this as any kind of personal attack, but we are in a public thread, so I am trying to respond to you in a way that provides another perspective from the way that you framed the matter.. even though there is no real shortage of either my views or framing of the matter - but I do still believe that your framing raises quite a few concerns in regards to what I would categorize as muddy thinking (even though I concede that I am just one person so you or anyone else can surely take any of my views with a large grain of salt or tell me to go fuck off.. but it is still not going to stop me from spouting them out - as many folks who are active in this thread have already likely realized through the years).

First: I have no problem with the idea of attempting to somewhat stay focused on going through initial stages of building an investment portfolio by limiting the number assets contained in such portfolio until it grows to a certain size that would thereafter cause some level of diversification to make more sense once the investment portfolio has gotten to a certain size.. maybe in the west we might consider the size of such portfolio to need to be something liek $30k to $50k before there is any need to really diversify, and maybe in less developed locations, getting up to $10k or even less might be enough justification to start to diversify.. some of the framing regarding how much concentration is reasonably tolerable will also depend on the cost of living of the area ... and surely we use dollars as our reference in this thread - even though there might be some other ways of measuring such value outside of just saying 1 BTC = 1 BTC , which to me hardly seems to make any sense unless we are attempting to figure out some way of measuring it... whether present value or even some future value.. .including passing down to heirs (even though that is seeming a bit of a stretch of the more tangible in terms of what we should be attempting to focus on when talking about whether we can even get through some BTC accumulation and maintenance goals for our own perspectives while we are still living and possibly able to meaningfully enjoy at some point).

By the way, even though you have been into BTC since 2013 - it seems to me that you are not even getting into an area of considering your BTC holdings beyond nearly pure accumulation.  I cannot really know your situation beyond what you are saying, and at the same time, it may not even matter too much - except that sometimes it may appear that my various responses are presuming too much about your particular circumstances, and that surely is not my intention to presume too much but instead to attempt to address some of the framing principles (or contrary framing principles) that your post seems to be raising.

Second: I understand that I might have been a bit loosey goosey with some of my previous discussion of the matter of possible diversification, but it seems to me that the very first peg in considering how to begin to diversify is to be figuring out allocation between BTC and dollars. 

Of course some folks come into BTC and already own some other traditional investments that might include property, equities and perhaps some PMs, too (I remember some of your previous posts in which you do have some of this, including but maybe not limited to property - even though I am not going to presume that you aesma ONLY have BTC and USD.. ,or that you have not gotten any start into the second peg).. so how any of us might approach the second peg of diversification would be both accounting for how many other traditional assets/investments you already have and that could affect how much you might feel that you need to establish (o0r increase) your base in some of the traditional assets which can help you both in terms of hedging volatility but also having a place to live and/or just providing you with more options and even possible more cover as compared with someone who might not want to get past the 1st peg of diversifcation that is ONLY in dollars and BTC.

Third: The third peg in diversification is one that I consider to be almost completely unnecessary to establish, unless you are just using your involvement in such as a possible way to complement your earning of BTC and/or dollars and that is getting involved in shitcoins or related projects.  Once you have identified Bitcoin in the leader in this area of industry, then perhaps the main meaningful or possible complementary diversifications would be to attempt to make sure that any ancillary investments of time and/or money that you are making relate to building upon bitcoin in some kind of somewhat articulable way that is beyond making shit up in order to get involved in some knowing scam or smoke and mirror project(s).  Of course, it is within your discretion regarding how much time/money to put into various ancillary projects and to figure out the extent to which they might sufficiently/adequately relate to bitcoin... and if you at least are not able to access their relation to bitcoin then at least attempt to access that they are not necessarily going to hurt you in terms of how you are directing your money and your time.

(currently by mining ETH and getting paid in BTC, the fiat allocation being the computer hardware).

To me, this seems like foggy and distracted thinking - not only in terms of the topic of this thread, but also just considering how much you might be wanting to place any value into shitcoins - time and/or money even if you calculate that you are earning more BTC by employing your resources in that way.

I have a number of BTC that I'd like to reach (or I guess several numbers, if the price were to drop a lot, or I would win the lottery), and most of my holdings are on cold wallets.

I don't have any real problems in terms of setting and maintaining goals that focus on the number of BTC that you would like to achieve, but I still surmise that you are measuring those BTC levels based on either present purchasing power value or future purchasing power value.

I will also surmise that you have some timeline considerations in regards to when you would like to reach some of your goals.. and of course, if we are trying to figure out both timeline and quantity of BTC that we would like to achieve, then there are likely to be a decent number of uncertainties, and in several senses, there are also ways to attempt to be as aggressive as we feel that we are able to be without either putting very much of our BTC principle at risk and also while attempting to keep ourselves in a sufficiently strong position that we have the projection of our expenses accounted for and we have also an adequately sized emergency fund that is going to protect us from having to sell BTC at a time that is anything other than our complete voluntary (rather than rationalized) choice regarding when to sell and how much to sell  (if we do end up selling some BTC - in some kind of unscheduled rather than previously scheduled kind of a way).


The USDC is for trading, I have very few at the moment as my lowest BTC buy order was 25K$ (I was looking for a way to add some more fiat without using my bank accounts, but I gave up), so now I have mostly sell orders (up to 100K$), in a ladder, and all these trades are made in USDC, that way I don't have to report them, only when I sell back USDC for fiat will I have to report it.

All of this is on an exchange, so on top of trusting USDC I'm trusting that exchange too, or rather I'm ready to lose what's on there.

Fair enough at least in regards to your holding for the purpose of trading may well not matter too much between whether you trade/hold USDC or USDT.. or maybe some other dollar-pegged coins.  Some exchanges have a lot of dollar pegged options and others have fewer dollar pegged options - even though sometimes it could end up taking a long time to work out various trades, and from my experience, both sides of the trade end up potentially building up on the exchange.. and another issue would be that some guys want to keep some (just in case) fiat on exchanges and even low ball orders, and so sometimes some of the dollar-pegged asset or trading pair could end up adding up to quite a bit of value being held on one or more exchanges.

I am not sure how much that I want to say about my own personal circumstances, but there was a time that I had quite a bit of higher percentages of my overall BTC portfolio value (including what I had considered to be the dollar or dollar pegged value) on various exchanges, and sometimes the price appreciation of BTC had caused that overall value to go to very high levels and also maybe a bit of failure to actively manage had contributed to my overall portfolio value going to levels that were likely beyond 30% of my total BTC holdings (including allocated dollars).. These days, I estimate that I have somewhere in the ballpark of 9% of my total investment portfolio value on various exchanges.. so perhaps we are thinking about the risk of keeping a certain level of value on exchanges similarly in terms that we are willing to allow for some of that risk - and for me, it surely is a smaller overall percentage as compared to where I had been in the past.

I'd like to be rich enough to spread things over several exchanges, several stablecoins, and be able to benefit from people cratering the price or making it go up for a short time, and arbitraging, but that's not to be.

It seems to me that frequently richer people are going to trend towards taking less risk with the amount of value that they have accumulated - especially if it has taken them a decent amount of time to accumulate such value.

Of course there are exceptions in regards to some people (even rich folks) who engage in such seemingly unwarranted (and perhaps even overly greedy) ways of taking chances with their wealth. 

Even with BTC, many of us longer time HODLers have figured out a variety of ways that we are likely able to keep more value in BTC while still reasonably attempting to protect our lil selfies from likely ongoing volatility - and maybe without even getting too worried, even if BTC prices might drop stupendously and on paper we are losing actual wealth, but maybe just having a certain level of confidence that as long as our timeline is long enough.. such as 4 years or longer, then it is quite likely that even some of the short term loss of value will work itself out to our benefit and we do not need to engage in conduct that might end up causing us to be worse off because we were trying to play the short term in a kind of greedy way rather than just allowing the longer term to play itself out..
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May 16, 2022, 06:34:44 PM

Ah... I might need to move a little pile of corn over to the nodes to reciprocate...  All those transactions will eventually clear...  It's down like 30% from the weekend.  -eidt- wait no... it's down like 65%...  My mempook is only like 30 blocks deep right now...

Nah man, it was drader and bfx-lnd0 that were being asshole sinks. We cool.
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May 16, 2022, 06:40:37 PM

Since everyone is calling a bear market, I wonder if the badger will disappoint them in the same way it disappointed the 100k laser eyes bull crowd last year.

One thing I've learned over the years is that BTC rarely goes along with the crowd's expectation.
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May 16, 2022, 06:59:21 PM

Proudhon predicted 70k by the end of may.

we can only hope he is a time traveler 🧳 and knows what he is talking about.




From 25K to 70K in less then 10 days, that would be something epic to observe.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

"Technically" the last time I checked there are more than 10 more days before either 1) we reach the end of the month and/or 2) the last time that we had touched upon $25k - (which was May 12th - using UTC time).

“Inflation is a regressive tax”… bitcoin can fix this!



https://twitter.com/jeffbezos/status/1525846743278944256?s=21

For sure, I have difficulties considering that Bezos has much if any concern for what might or might not be good for the poorest of society...even though surely there can be some ambiguity in regards to the extent to which the delivery of inexpensive (and competitively-priced) items might not also indirectly benefit down-trodden sodds within the society.

Since everyone is calling a bear market, I wonder if the badger will disappoint them in the same way it disappointed the 100k laser eyes bull crowd last year.

One thing I've learned over the years is that BTC rarely goes along with the crowd's expectation.

Just because we are in a bear market does not mean that we necessarily expect BTC prices to go down or have to go down. 

So even with your ongoing seeming desires to act as a contrarian, you might be attributing too much in the attempts that any of us here are looking at what is actually happening and attempting to figure out where we might be at...

Sure, the BTC price might reverse and strongly bounce back over $35k and just keep moving UPpity from there, but it seems that those kinds of expectations are devolving into fantasylandia rather than even appreciating more likely scenarios.

Just like the vast majority of active WO thread participants are likely HODLing a decent amount of BTC, or ongoingly accumulating BTC, or mostly leaning towards being long BTC, many of us want and prefer the BTC price to go up rather than down.. but expecting something like a bounce back above the 100-week moving average without some kind of building of support first seems a wee bit of pie in the sky to me.. .. even though we know anything is possible.. and historically sometimes we have just seen some kind of a short-term short squeeze with a 12 hour or 36 hour period of exponential UPpity (something like a 70% UPpity candle), we should not even be considering those kinds of possible scenarios as base cases, even though they can happen at any time... and they sometimes do happen.. they just are not something that any of us can count on happening - even though there is nothing wrong with being prepared for those things to happen (which is part of the reason that we should always be prepared for UP, even if everyone and their dog is expecting down... which may be part of the point that you were wanting to make).
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May 16, 2022, 07:01:25 PM


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May 16, 2022, 07:20:47 PM
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Since everyone is calling a bear market, I wonder if the badger will disappoint them in the same way it disappointed the 100k laser eyes bull crowd last year.

One thing I've learned over the years is that BTC rarely goes along with the crowd's expectation.

We have been in a bear market (at least as far as almost all on chain params are concerned) since April 2021.
It is obvious to me that Nov-Dec 2021 nominal peak was a simple reactionary move to the 'premature' bull termination caused by the chinese.
yes, we should have moved to a 'regular' peak of probably at least 100-120K by June-Sept 2021 if not for that abrupt halt, then we tried to resume and, basically, failed (made a double top, though).
People (myself included) were hoping for a higher second top, but it did not really happen in the same way as in 2013. The momentum was weak.

Now, we are fast-declining from the 35-40K flat similarly to 2018.
My hope is that since we did not spike exponentially in this cycle, it would mean that we drop 60% instead of usual 80% or more, but nobody said that it is a law.
BTC already done about 62% decline at 25.5, which is close to one of Fib numbers, accidentally.
70% would be 20.4K.

Having said that, the bounce should come sooner or later (maybe to 35-40K).
We already declined 7 wk straight (new all time record) thanks to luna shenanigans.
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May 16, 2022, 07:42:46 PM
Last edit: May 16, 2022, 09:54:43 PM by Gachapin

Since everyone is calling a bear market, I wonder if the badger will disappoint them in the same way it disappointed the 100k laser eyes bull crowd last year.

One thing I've learned over the years is that BTC rarely goes along with the crowd's expectation.

We have been in a bear market (at least as far as almost all on chain params are concerned) since April 2021.
It is obvious to me that Nov-Dec 2021 nominal peak was a simple reactionary move to the 'premature' bull termination caused by the chinese.
yes, we should have moved to a 'regular' peak of probably at least 100-120K by June-Sept 2021 if not for that abrupt halt, then we tried to resume and, basically, failed (made a double top, though).
People (myself included) were hoping for a higher second top, but it did not really happen in the same way as in 2013. The momentum was weak.

Now, we are fast-declining from the 35-40K flat similarly to 2018.
My hope is that since we did not spike exponentially in this cycle, it would mean that we drop 60% instead of usual 80% or more, but nobody said that it is a law.
BTC already done about 62% decline at 25.5, which is close to one of Fib numbers, accidentally.
70% would be 20.4K.

Having said that, the bounce should come sooner or later (maybe to 35-40K).
We already declined 7 wk straight (new all time record) thanks to luna shenanigans.

True. Indicators show a bear.

And you are also right with the premature ejaculation and the powerless second run, which lead to a lack of the usual exponential spike.
That's the reason I wondered, if some bearish expectations like 10k-20k will ever be fulfilled.

I could also imagine a cycle in which we continue to bounce around in a 25k-70k channel for the next two years, essentially forming a huge kind of bull flag until the next halving.  


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