Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[heslo]

Seems Bitcoin didn't like those CPI numbers. Or is it that the trad markets didn't like it and there are still a few hold outs left from this latest Bitcoin bull run that think Bitcoin is just another asset.

I have noticed over the last few weeks though that there is definitely some decoupling going on. This makes me think that 90% of the weak minded, weak handed fools have already vanished. If we do get further dumping from this point the last 10% will be gone I'm sure. Which will then lead to complete decoupling and the start of our next bull run.

8.6% and it's only going to keep rising. But you're right, seems the drops to this type of news are getting smaller with BTC each time; the weak hands are being flushed out

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[cAPSLOCK]

Who tested it?  Where is the version that crashed.  The version that people played with for a few months before they found the flaw.

You must be new to Bitcoin.  Eventually, you will learn the Bitcoin lore.

The early versions of Bitcoin were riddled with flaws.  It took years to refine Bitcoin into what it is now.

You missed my point.  That's OK My point was not super clear.  But in the very next line (I think) I mention, with less detail, the existence of issues.

But my point is more about the broad brush than the little issues.  And I agree that details matter (pointing out that Quantum computing theoretically threatens the elliptic curve rather than the SHA algorithm) and appriciate your corrective fine point.

But my point is that I think we are somewhat blind to the magnitude of achievement that Satoshi whoever he/she/they are/were.  Not with the specifics, but with the broad brush.  

One way to say it is by now we would have seen the system taken advantage of in some way had it not been so well thought out.   As rough as Bitcoin was, and as many pain poibnts as still exist.  the more I think about it the less likely it seems to me that some random jamoke could just throw together the replacement for GOLD (and then all money) in a couple months.  I would think there would need to be a lot of testing done even before it got to the point it was before the genesis block.  And sometimes I wonder if a team of folks was indeed behind it... And that LOTS of work was done before the initial release...  I just find it astonishing what Sartoshi managed to do.

I am not sure if your point about cult like stuff had anything to do with my odd post.  But I would agree that is not helpful.  MP was a weirdo.  And similarly the various scammers in crypto have leveraged that kind of stuff for their gain.  I am not terribly comfortable when people talk about Bitcoin as if it were a new religion...

[aysg76]

Get yourself a girl who supports you like Saylor support  BTC

[somac.]

Seems Bitcoin didn't like those CPI numbers. Or is it that the trad markets didn't like it and there are still a few hold outs left from this latest Bitcoin bull run that think Bitcoin is just another asset.

I have noticed over the last few weeks though that there is definitely some decoupling going on. This makes me think that 90% of the weak minded, weak handed fools have already vanished. If we do get further dumping from this point the last 10% will be gone I'm sure. Which will then lead to complete decoupling and the start of our next bull run.

8.6% and it's only going to keep rising. But you're right, seems the drops to this type of news are getting smaller with BTC each time; the weak hands are being flushed out

Yeah that's just how I'm seeing it in the price action. Comparing the Nasdaq to BTC for instance. Nasdaq well below its June 7th price, BTC above its June 7th price. That's a clear indication to me.

[dragonvslinux]

https://twitter.com/RsiBitcoin/status/1535147312900517889

To clarify, for anyone reading this indicator incorrectly, the "Capitulation alert" (grey circle) appears as the MA30 dropped below the MA60, not because hash rate has dropped below them both. Bare in mind hash rate hit new ATH yesterday, likely due to cost of mining dropping to lowest level in around 9 months, so we might not have the 2018 style capitulation shown below, or what happened in 2019 and 2021.

This is what happened last time in 2018 when Hash Ribbon - Capitulation occurred on $BTC. Price went down 50%.

For reference sake (because it's very relevant here), this is what happened in 2020. Red arrows are the sell signals and green arrows are the buy signals.

March 2020: Sell $5.4K --- Buy $7.5K
May 2020: Sell $8.7K --- Buy $9.3K
October 2020: Sell $13.4K --- Buy $19.2K



I imagine you can see the issue with selling capitulation and buying the recoveries here. You'd simply be losing substantial amount of Bitcoin by doing so.

This is why it's advised not to trade the capitulations, but only the buy signals. The creator of the indicator emphasised this quite heavily based on back-testing. Based on current metrics (hash rate, difficulty and mining cost), it seems a buy signal is more likely than further capitulation, unless price drops below mining cost (currently $25.5K). Further capitulation would be based on hash rate declining, not just consolidating, and therefore difficulty declining (over a multi-bi-weekly period), but so far difficulty has again increased, and is so far estimated to increase further. So for me, this doesn't yet signal any alarm bells like in 2018, 2019 and 2021.

This indicator instead now suggests two possible outcomes:

1. Price dropping below $25K could signal much further downside (as miners capitulate switching off machines), to an uber bearish target of $12K - $14K. Or not, as the signal isn't very reliable.
2. Price maintaining above $30K in the coming days/weeks would likely lead to a highly reliable buy signal (MA30 and MA60  bullish crossover), as hash rate would continue increasing.

This isn't intended to install hopium, just providing the background and purpose of this indicator. Notably how reliable it has been with buy signals, but how unreliable it is for capitulations.

Edit: If any states want to try and have a short-term influence over BTC price by banning mining then now would be there moment. Similar to China in 2021 for example.

[Torque]

OT: Honestly even though the latest CPI print number came in hot, international freight charts are telling a slightly different story:

https://fbx.freightos.com/

Looks like we are right on the cusp of a huge downswing (crash?) in freight rates, especially East to West. If it doesn't happen naturally, one more Fed rate hike will definitely send freight rates plunging globally.

[Hamza2424]

Seems Bitcoin didn't like those CPI numbers. Or is it that the trad markets didn't like it and there are still a few hold outs left from this latest Bitcoin bull run that think Bitcoin is just another asset.

I have noticed over the last few weeks though that there is definitely some decoupling going on. This makes me think that 90% of the weak minded, weak handed fools have already vanished. If we do get further dumping from this point the last 10% will be gone I'm sure. Which will then lead to complete decoupling and the start of our next bull run.

Agreed.

The reality is that the new ones made an entry in the market by its green moment they use to hear stories of the traders and investors of crypto they judge their them they don't see their consistency and their Ups and Downs in that struggle,

then they make irregular entries without making any research and also without knowing the Trend they make a loss and due to hasty they use to book Loss instead of Holding then create a panic.

[somac.]

OT: Honestly even though the latest CPI print number came in hot, international freight charts are telling a slightly different story:

https://fbx.freightos.com/

Looks like we are right on the cusp of a huge downswing (crash?) in freight rates, especially East to West. If it doesn't naturally, one more Fed rate hike will definitely send freight rates plunging globally.

Absolutely. A massive recession is already baked in and the Fed is hiking into it and they know it. The ascending USD is a giant wrecking ball destroying the rest of the world as we speak, particularly EMs. Freight is not the only thing falling right now, hell governments are already collapsing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Crypt0S0ul]

Today Bitcoin price $31.5k. . My guess is that Bitcoin will go back to the previous position.The current market situation is fairly good.

Plagiarising merit whores are breeding now... wonderful.

You may Want to Check this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402089.0

Merry-merit-go-round!

Relevant here because Blue King received most of his merit in WO. :/

You may also Want to Check this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402089.0

[hisslyness]

seems 99% of us are not like anyone else here either judging by the many differing viewpoints that are discussed in this thread. only common denominator here is the only one of importance.. we agree bitcoin is the future. all else pales in comparison.

True enough.

Rephrase what I said, according to its context:  In the hypothetical event of a total ban, >99% of people here could be easily stopped from using Bitcoin.

If the ban were global (or even just covered the strategically most powerful jurisdictions), the rest of us could then have fun anonymously trading encrypted virtual pizza NFTs for bitcoins—since the market as we now know it would cease to exist.

I urge people to stop blowing off the threats of anything from regulatory attacks on use and trading of Bitcoin, to restrictions on mining, to (less likely, but still possible) widespread bans.

phil, why bother with the vest?  Don’t worry.  You can’t get shot, because it’s illegal for criminals to have guns.

Brings us back to the question regarding how much effort that any of us might be putting into scenarios that have low odds of happening.  

To me, it seems as if you may well be putting way disproportional amount of efforts and resources into a kind of scenario that likely has low odds of playin gout anywhere near the level that it would need to play out in order for you to get your "I told you so " moment... and sure maybe for you, to the extent that you really have not made mistakes, the various costs are worth it.. and you  get a kind of thrill out of making such preparations and being such a "unique beast.".  

Does not mean that others in this thread should even want to put anything close to the same level of preparations and efforts into such scenarios that you hypothesize that may or may not come even close to playing out at your fantasy levels.  

To make your point there, you cherry-picked one post out of an extended discussion.

In this particular post, I primarily mentioned a worst-case scenario that I deem very unlikely:  A total, global ban of Bitcoin in all major jurisdictions, with draconian criminal penalties for mere possession of BTC.  It is hypothetical—as should be implicitly obvious:  I am not so stupid as to discuss publicly my own violation of these nonexistent laws, if they exist or are likely to soon exist!  Of course, it is not impossible:  The United States banned gold for a long time, with draconian criminal penalties for unlicensed individual possession of gold bullion.  A gold coin was deemed “contraband”.

I must drive that point home.  There is no cause to treat me as Chicken Little (or when we turn to discussing E.U. politics, Henny Penny) for my striving to awaken people out of their complacency, when even the absolute worst-case scenario has real-world historical precedent.  Banning Bitcoin would be much easier for the U.S. government than banning gold was in 1934, at a time when a relatively high percentage of middle- and upper-class people owned gold—very few people have Bitcoin, by comparison.  In 1933, a ban of gold must have seemed totally impossible; I’d think that anyone who was worried about a gold ban would have been dismissed as an alarmist.  To gain some perspective, mull on that for a bit.

(Other things that seem very unlikely:  The Nixon Shock.  What, do you imagine that the U.S. government will simply renege and default its obligations to other governments?  You believe that the United States will blatantly break its promises to other governments about the the dollar being redeemable for gold, just like Do Kwon did with the UST peg?  Actually, what the USG did was worse than what Do Kwon did—much worse, and on a much larger scale.  Nah, that will never happen... whoops.)

In the post that started this subthread, I briefly mentioned likelihood of various other scenarios:

Now, I foresee a multi-pronged carrot-and-stick attack to force Bitcoin to switch to POS.  A part of the “stick” is government regulation that drastically drives up the costs and hassles of mining (more likely), or maybe even an outright ban of POW mining (less likely).  The writing is on the wall.  In the U.S., which now hosts a terrific percentage of global hashrate, there are a few Federal legislators actively trying to prevent this:  Cruz, Lummis—anyone else?  Now, why are you sneering at them?

I did not even try to assign a likelihood to an absolute, total ban of Bitcoin.  I raised that worst-case hypothetical to shoot down the stupidity of bragging that governments can’t stop Bitcoin.  Yes, they can.  If the USG banned gold, then they can ban Bitcoin!  It would be costly and difficult for them, but assuredly not impossible.

Due to the cost and difficulty of banning Bitcoin, I think it’s much more likely that anti-Bitcoin factions will seek other ways to bring Bitcoin under control:  To corrupt it, to mislead people to treat it as a quasi-stock (which opens the door to worse regulatory attacks that you ignore in your other post), to suppress mining, and most of all, to force a switch to POS.  That last is not only a very likely attack:  The push for it is already happening!  Actually, all of the scenarios that I have just enumerated are in some degree already happening.

My focus is proportionate, measured, and well-attuned to reality.  You are sticking your head in the sand, living in a fantasy that your “King Daddy” is invincible.

Seriously bro!.. what are you trying to prove?.. how smart you are? how dumb everyone is?

we get it!.. you've got a subscription to grammarly and want to maximise the use of it!

every post is always about you you you!... fucking sick of it!...

[ivomm]

My relationship status with 30k

Love…
Hate…
Love…
I don’t know it’s complicated

Mine is Love when I met her first and Hate since I saw 31K - until now. Actually, the hate was getting stronger with each day. I think I now hate her infinitely. But if she proves to be faitful and stays here for several years, I'll begin to love it again, since by DCA-ing will increase significantly my stash. For now, she shows herself to be just another hooker around the corner.

[Hamza2424]

Seriously bro!.. what are you trying to prove?.. how smart you are? how dumb everyone is?

we get it!.. you've got a subscription to grammarly and want to maximise the use of it!

every post is always about you you you!... fucking sick of it!...

Don't consider me in it bro like its too funny that i don't even use to read such bigger posts in the thread except for the Guy JayJuanGee i found him interesting from day one.

eventually, it doesn't matter how you do respond but with the passion which this guy use im sure nobody can just go through it.

Read analyse and go forward thats how all work for me. Its Domain and Range of learning

[Franctoshi]

https://twitter.com/RsiBitcoin/status/1535147312900517889

To clarify, for anyone reading this indicator incorrectly, the "Capitulation alert" (grey circle) appears as the MA30 dropped below the MA60, not because hash rate has dropped below them both. Bare in mind hash rate hit new ATH yesterday, likely due to cost of mining dropping to lowest level in around 9 months, so we might not have the 2018 style capitulation shown below, or what happened in 2019 and 2021.

This is what happened last time in 2018 when Hash Ribbon - Capitulation occurred on $BTC. Price went down 50%.

For reference sake (because it's very relevant here), this is what happened in 2020. Red arrows are the sell signals and green arrows are the buy signals.

March 2020: Sell $5.4K --- Buy $7.5K
May 2020: Sell $8.7K --- Buy $9.3K
October 2020: Sell $13.4K --- Buy $19.2K



I imagine you can see the issue with selling capitulation and buying the recoveries here. You'd simply be losing substantial amount of Bitcoin by doing so.

This is why it's advised not to trade the capitulations, but only the buy signals. The creator of the indicator emphasised this quite heavily based on back-testing. Based on current metrics (hash rate, difficulty and mining cost), it seems a buy signal is more likely than further capitulation, unless price drops below mining cost (currently $25.5K). Further capitulation would be based on hash rate declining, not just consolidating, and therefore difficulty declining (over a multi-bi-weekly period), but so far difficulty has again increased, and is so far estimated to increase further. So for me, this doesn't yet signal any alarm bells like in 2018, 2019 and 2021.

This indicator instead now suggests two possible outcomes:

1. Price dropping below $25K could signal much further downside (as miners capitulate switching off machines), to an uber bearish target of $12K - $14K. Or not, as the signal isn't very reliable.
2. Price maintaining above $30K in the coming days/weeks would likely lead to a highly reliable buy signal (MA30 and MA60  bullish crossover), as hash rate would continue increasing.

This isn't intended to install hopium, just providing the background and purpose of this indicator. Notably how reliable it has been with buy signals, but how unreliable it is for capitulations.

Edit: If any states want to try and have a short-term influence over BTC price by banning mining then now would be there moment. Similar to China in 2021 for example.

Many data ,indicators and events around BTC now shows we're likely bottoming out and it's building up for a possible Bitcoin rally in months to come, we could get imminent supply shock ahead, with the assumption of many investors and traders thinking that BTC is heading to $20k might be the Scam time of the market where smart money guys will do the opposite, turns market around thereby pushing the price up a bit towards the next main event (halving) and to the freaking moon after the event.

If this this indicators Plays to be accurate, we could get a bit down side before getting long anticipated relief rally,
however the clock could be ticking faster more than we expect.

To avoid I was actually waiting for another deep.

HODL and loading up now for the future when #BTC is cheap ( Price within $30k-$28k) and the (transaction fee) is still on the low side,
 Data shows it has always bring the best profit.

[BitcoinBunny]

OT:

The loving green Dutch government has decided (in accordance to following EU emission regulation) enough with farming in The Netherlands. It is simply too polluting regardless of the fact that the food and milk generated has fed millions over the hundreds of years and was there before a single green policy and any form of Unity within Europe was ever thought of.

Enough is enough with this disgusting practice of localised farming, we'd rather pay Billy HingPing Swing in the outskirts of Shanghai to do your job!

"Fuck you farmers, and no, we don't thank you, just close shop, we'd rather import all this stuff and make it look like we are as clean as Elon Musk's bare ass."

Sounds reasonable I guess. Especially since the conservative party was voted in again as the biggest party. The voters get exactly what they want with the green policies shoved down their throats.

Inflation is just not high enough!

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/06/farms-will-have-to-close-down-to-meet-nitrogen-targets-ministers-say/


In this type of environment "what" happened on Jan 6th last year in the USA is completely understandable in my opinion.

Hopefully the Dutch farmers will resist this complete and utter moronic nonsense.

[Wilhelm]

OT:

The loving green Dutch government has decided (in accordance to following EU emission regulation) enough with farming in The Netherlands. It is simply too polluting regardless of the fact that the food and milk generated has fed millions over the hundreds of years and was there before a single green policy and any form of Unity within Europe was ever thought of.

Enough is enough with this disgusting practice of localised farming, we'd rather pay Billy HingPing Swing in the outskirts of Shanghai to do your job!

"Fuck you farmers, and no, we don't thank you, just close shop, we'd rather import all this stuff and make it look like we are as clean as Elon Musk's bare ass."

Sounds reasonable I guess. Especially since the conservative party was voted in again as the biggest party. The voters get exactly what they want with the green policies shoved down their throats.

Inflation is just not high enough!

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/06/farms-will-have-to-close-down-to-meet-nitrogen-targets-ministers-say/

Yup we're a postage stamp sized country trying to single-handedly solve the climate crisis 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Franctoshi]

Get yourself a girl who supports you like Saylor support  BTC

Actually Money is energy it cannot be destroyed it can only shift phases i.e change from one form to another, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is another form of money changing phase ( Fiat currency  - digital currency)

According to a news article I read on the internet the CEO of JPMORGAN- Jamie Diamon- warns an economic hurricane is coming.
https://news.bitcoin.com/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-of-incoming-economic-hurricane-says-you-better-brace-yourself/
 
If actually these comes to play,  I see more energy (Money) flow into Bitcoin in time to come because BTC will be the best safety in performance against inflation thus expanding greatly in value,
And this is going to be the biggest wealth transfer in history as so many things are going to be digitalized and tokenized .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Rephrase what I said, according to its context:  In the hypothetical event of a total ban, >99% of people here could be easily stopped from using Bitcoin.

for anyone of us in the USA (you know, land of the "free") a government ban would certainly stop almost all of us in their tracks. even if youre not kyc'd anywhere, use tor, decentralized exchanges etc i would wager they would find out anyway. maybe if you live totally off the grid and never go near civilization it could be done but thats not for me. call me a wimp or whatever, i need modern society to live comfortably. especially modern medicine.

understand: i HATE kyc and the government snooping in our business to the point they just hoover all info they can to store and analyze  for "security/terrorism/etc" purposes even when its not currently useful. as they can always make some law in the future and look back at all that collected data to retroactively get you on some law that doesnt even exist right now.  

look, i will mess with a lot of things but one entity i wont mess with is the irs. they have NO sense of humor. makes me glad i did not hide my btc gains even before the irs targeted it. call me a wimp but thats what we here in the USA need to do to exist in peace.

bleh.

In the USA you could mine to an address and never touch it.

I kyc everything fully transparent and I now did an LLC with buysolar. I had a schedule c but turning 65 and wanting to still work my accountant advised using an account with the business name on it for bitcointalk.

 Thus the new account vs philipma1957.  Thinking BTC is truly private and stealthy holds back its adoption as that is my opinion.

phil (or LLC2022), you seem to mix a few things (anything below is not an advice, consult CPA):
1. btctalk and business are two different "things" that don't have to be related, lol.
2. If it is a one member LLC, then taxes are being channeled to your INDIVIDUAL 1040. If LLC has more than one member, then it is more like a corp, which has both advantages and disadvantages.
3. You can very well mine to an account, but still record it and pay proper taxes on all proceeds (after accounting for expenses).

I sell a lot of gear .

I wont be selling with this account.

I will be using the LLC account to sell from now on.

I did a schedule c and used philipma1957 to sell here and on ebay for years and years and years.

I will not be doing a schedule c with the two person LLC .

I will be closing the schedule c business.

So since I have sold 10s of thousands of gear in the past I want zero confusion when I sell off a lot of gear.

I think it’s wise.  Legally, the LLC is a separate person; you must operate it at arm’s-length from yourself.  If anyone ever wants to pierce the corporate veil of your LLC, then they will look for evidence that you treat the company as yourself, or as a flimsy mask for yourself.  If you keep everything separate, including a separate forum account for the LLC to speak and conduct business on its own behalf, then that tends to show me, at least, that it is a bona fide entity separate from you.

(Not legal advice of any kind.  Just making some observations, and expressing my opinion.  Your lawyer could advise, and perhaps has, on proper arm’s-length treatment of a company.)