Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

So let's go to the 200WMA and get over with this crap...

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[somac.]

So let's go to the 200WMA and get over with this crap...

I hear ya. This selling is relentless.

Might need to take a second job at this rate. Macca's is till 24hours at some locations right?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

So let's go to the 200WMA and get over with this crap...

I hear ya. This selling is relentless.

Seems the big guys wanna have their 21k

[Gachapin]

blabla

gtfo asshole

[somac.]

At this rate, in a few hours we'll be hoping we stay in the 20s.

[death_wish]

For information indicating an answer to my own question, my own question, a non-Google search found this Coincentral.com article dated “08 December 2021” (archived 13 Jun 2022 03:01:15); boldface is in the original, my highlights are added:

Is Celsius Network safe to use?

Yes, Celsius Network is safe for you to use.

The company was founded in 2017 by Alex Mashinsky (CEO) and Daniel Leon (Founding President and COO). Mashinsky is notable for his work bringing cell phone service and free WiFi to the New York City subways, enabling WiFI on U.S. flights, and creating Voice over IP (VoIP). And Leon has had an accomplished career as a social entrepreneur, serving as a leader at several organizations, including Atlis Labs, Beyon3D, and GroundLink.

To date, Celsius Network supports over 101,000 users worldwide containing over $730 million in assets. Additionally, the platform has facilitated nearly $5.5 billion in loan originations (about $8.2 billion in today’s BTC prices). The company has made $12 million in interest payments,

You should note, however, that Celsius Network is a custodial wallet platform. So, the company keeps control of the keys for each of your cryptocurrency wallets. While this fact shouldn’t be a deal-breaker for most people, it is essential to know.

By the way, does Coincentral.com have a forum account against which a Type-1 flag can be raised?  Spreading the highlighted type of misinformation causes newbies a high risk of losing money.

Further down, the same article provides this warning about that assuredly “safe” custodial platform, where trust-us “shouldn’t” be a deal-breaker:

An important warning: Currently, Celsius Network does not provide any insurance on your deposits. So if the company falls victim to a hack, for instance, there is a possibility that you will lose your funds.

Anyway...  For a back-of-the-envelope guesstimate of the magnitude of a Celsius collapse:  Allowing that it’s likely that Celsius exposed assets shrank between December and June, it looks like this is probably one order magnitude smaller than the Terra collapse—which, in turn, was about an order of magnitude smaller than Gox in terms of BTC lost (Gox) or dumped (LFG), but two orders of magnitude larger than Gox in dollar terms of total losses.

IMO, that would barely cause a blip in the BTC price chart—if the market were not already beaten to hell by Fed interest rate news, Terra, massive FUD, what must be terrifically huge and professional organized shorting, ridiculous coupling to a crashing stock market, and the mass-reaction to the latest official USD inflation numbers.  If Celsius is the cause of the current rapid downswing, then it is the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Edit:  Corrected order-of-magnitude comparison of the Mt. Gox collapse to the Terra collapse, in the penultimate paragraph.  Archive of original.  Cause of error:  Brain malfunction; I know the relevant information.  I dislike making such a substantive alteration when a post has already received merit; but the numbers I stated were factually wrong, and a misstatement of order-of-magnitude is not insignificant.

[HI-TEC99]

I remember the crash to $3k in late 2018. Half a year later and it was over $12k.

[somac.]

I remember the crash to $3k in late 2019. Half a year later and it was over $12k.

Too any noobs reading this right now, take note.

[JayJuanGee]

Had some free time today, so I decided to fire up MATLAB and try to create some BTC/USD polar (a.k.a. spiral) price chart visualizations.

Trying to catch up and not really up to posting but this is a great chart visualization you setup so had to comment.

What is the absolute minimum time frame for length to be in profit.

Obviously its in between the 2 and 4 year but i'd like to know the exact timeframe as it would be nice to see if it holds as we progress.

Thanks Hueristic, and to everyone who found my visualization helpful (links to post and video, for those who missed it). I'm also VERY busy IRL right now, so I've had to switch to "lurker" mode. I'm trying to keep up with WO, and very quickly skimming through the posts.

On to your question, which is very interesting, and is one that also came into my mind while writing the visualization code and observing the results. You're right, the profit threshold is between 2 and 4 years. This is obvious, by comparing the plots for Case 4 and Case 5. Answering the question programmatically is not very trivial, so I found the answer graphically, by observing adjacent plots (one day apart), around the time point the spiral untangles. It turns out that the profit threshold is at 1096 days. This is around 156 weeks, or exactly 3 years. The funny (and interesting) thing is that this threshold is EXACTLY 3 years to the day (1096 / 365.25 = 3.0007)! The price point at that time is just under $20k (around $19,700).

Edit: After posting this, I did some verification of the price data, just to make sure I haven't made a mistake. Everything checked out, but what I also realized was that the time the spiral untangles is on 17 December 2017—the exact time point of the 2017 ATH (for the older cycle). Hence the price of just under $20k! For the newer (outer) cycle, the time point is 1096 days (3 years) later, which is on 17 December 2020.

Here's the relevant polar plot (indicating the point the spiral untangles):



When I have some free time, I'll try to think of other ways to visualize price data, so that we can get a better understanding of price dynamics. For the time being, I'm in "HoDL-&-wait" mode. The recent price drop (and even today's drop to nearly $27k) does not worry me. I'm convinced that it's just a matter of time for the price to reach 6 digits and beyond. Just need to wait for a little while longer... We're all used to that. This is fine.

Maybe I am misunderstanding Hueristic's question or the point that is being made, but I was thinking that Hueristic was asking at what timeline point do the spirals never cross again because the BTC price never goes below the earlier high price, and we should be able to do a quick look at the spot price numbers on regular charts and find the various highest price points, and then look at the subsequent chart data to find at what point the BTC price gets above the previous ATH and never goes back below such earlier ATH price point, ever again.

You seemed to have considered the December 17, 2017 to December 17, 2021 timeline to represent such longest period crossing point, but it seems to me that our November 30-ish 2013 (at $1,163-ish) to April 3-ish 2017 would have been longer because in March 2017, the BTC price went below $1,163, and did not get back above $1,163 and stay above $1,163 until about April 3rd-ish (which result in a gap of right around 1,220 days rather than your result of 1,096 days)


Edit:  Upon reflection, the obvious point became more clear to me that your data for this matter does not go back to November 2013.. it only goes back to late November 2014... well duh (saying that to myself)....

[Biodom]

Well, we 'ate' all but 11-12% (at the moment) of 19780 to 67566 move from 2017 ATH to 2021 ATH.
This is a bit more of the give back than before, imho.

[Gachapin]

I remember the crash to $3k in late 2019. Half a year later and it was over $12k.

So 100k in December...

Where is the lama?

[death_wish]

I remember the crash to $3k in late 2019. Half a year later and it was over $12k.

Typo, I think you mean late 2018/early 2019; but the point is well taken.

At that time, I wasted two hours arguing with a nocoiner.  I suggested buying some BTC—at least a wee little bit.  He insisted that it would go to zero.  Last I heard, he was waiting to buy when it goes down to $10k.  I guess that’s an improvement, although he steadfastly refuses to admit that he made a mistake by not-buying at $3k.

[Biodom]

I hope he (B. Cowen) is wrong, but who knows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxbpmp3HF4E

Comment: why nobody take under consideration the "potential" hockey stick of adoption?

TL;DR 40K at 2024 halving. Yea, not very bullish, this one.

[JayJuanGee]

 Perhaps I should stop writing forum posts, and write some code.

Not a bad idea, especially if you believe that bitcoin is deficient in various ways (which seems to frequently underly several of your ongoing talking points).  Then if you can get your code merged into bitcoin, that might NOT be a bad thing.

I could say.. "I used to know him back when he was a perpetual whiner.  Now, he's a superstar, but still doesn't seem to know shit about personal risk management."    . hahahaha  

Just my point of view

which sucks......


#nohomo








 

most people are now in agreement that the "real" top was in April (based on momentum, etc). November was an especially wimpy "top-lite".

Most people agree that you suck, too.. but what does that have to do with anything?

 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Buy order hit, this game is too easy. Thanks for the cheap coins, paper hands.



CZ Binance
@cz_binance
During the last ATH, new people were marveling at OGs who got in early and held on. This is what it feels like the other half of the time.

Your actions now determine what you will feel like during the next ATH.

Not financial advice.
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1535991698035294214?s=21

[somac.]

I hope he (B. Cowen) is wrong, but who knows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qxbpmp3HF4E

Comment: why nobody take under consideration the "potential" hockey stick of adoption?

TL;DR 40K at 2024 halving. Yea, not very bullish, this one.

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

Probably about right, always a long grind between cycle bottoms & tops. $250,000 by end of 2025!

[somac.]

Right now 40k at 2024 doesn't seem too bad honestly, lol.

Probably about right, always a long grind between cycle bottoms & tops. $250,000 by end of 2025!

Yeah watching the video now. Never heard of the guy before but his analysis sounds good. 250k, i could handle that.

Getting excitied for all the extra BTC I'll be able to accumulate over the next 2 years.