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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26364171 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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June 15, 2022, 09:46:31 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), HI-TEC99 (1)

...

An hour or so ago, Bitcoin Magazine published the below piece on Wasabi Wallet 2.0:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/wasabi-wallet-2-contains-new-features-for-optimizing-bitcoin-coinjoins

Note that author Shawn Amick did not mention anything about the controversy surrounding Wasabi working with blockchain analysis companies to censor their coinjoin UTXOs....

Hmm...

Is Wasabi helping blockchain analysis companies track transactions?


Yup, 11 pages on Wasabi's decision to lessen privacy here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5286821.0
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June 15, 2022, 09:57:11 PM
Merited by HI-TEC99 (1)

...

An hour or so ago, Bitcoin Magazine published the below piece on Wasabi Wallet 2.0:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/wasabi-wallet-2-contains-new-features-for-optimizing-bitcoin-coinjoins

Note that author Shawn Amick did not mention anything about the controversy surrounding Wasabi working with blockchain analysis companies to censor their coinjoin UTXOs....

Hmm...

Is Wasabi helping blockchain analysis companies track transactions?

There is a narrative that they are.  There is a narrative that spooks are behind Samourai too.  Honestly, if you want privacy Bitcoin is not ready.  (I would trust Samourai first..)
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June 15, 2022, 10:04:53 PM


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June 15, 2022, 10:30:41 PM
Last edit: June 15, 2022, 10:51:55 PM by Biodom

I am not expecting this, but is it possible that they truly lost it?
We shall see.
Will 3.5-3.75 interest rate be enough by the EOY?

There is a nice video from Ben Cowen about inflation and stock market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0fM5nlujp4

One thing that was informative is that seventies had three inflation spikes, followed by valleys, but the first one was smaller than our current spike, but it is entirely possible that it would work out like this (my speculation):

1. A current spike extending to EOY (inflation peaking maybe at 9, and probably below 10).
2. Markets at the lowest with inflation at the highest.
3. Decline in inflation (2023-2024) to 3.5-4% with stocks (and bitcoin) recovering and peaking in 2025 with bitcoin at 100K or slightly (20-40%) above and stocks within 5-10% of the prior peak (could be small ATH).
4. Second spike in inflation to 9-12% (maybe by 2026-2027). Fed rate at something currently unimaginable (maybe 5-7% or even higher), markets crushed again, but making higher lows (including btc). The bear cycle ends around 2028-2032 with prices still significantly higher than in 2026-2027.
5. Inflation finally going down, FED is easing profusely, a new secular bull market in everything (could last 20 years). Bitcoin cycles diminished, much smoother ride (for those who are still around).
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June 15, 2022, 10:52:37 PM



I like buying cheap coin at the moment but fuck that, man.

^^^ There's blood in the streets and there's "Kill me now!"

Soon my friend! Soon!  Shocked  Shocked

Vegeta numbers might come! Cheesy Cheesy
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June 15, 2022, 11:01:22 PM


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June 15, 2022, 11:04:04 PM

That argument defeats itself, because it cuts both ways:  You fail to account for leverage in the opposite direction.

I strongly suspect that the current $20k–$22k range is a mirage, caused by massive organized dumping of the market using borrowed coins.

The price range right now is not real, except to three types of people:  (a) Fools who got long-squeezed and liquidated like me, (b) buyers who prudently kept reserves available to buy BTC now, and (c) whoever the hell is reaping huge dollar profits from shorting Bitcoin.  OK, well, I guess that the price now is real.  By your argument, it is not real.

You mean like exchange owners house trading on the own exchanges, naked shorting with re-hypothecated coins to push the price below real market value in order to scoop up more cheap coins?

That's pure crazy talk! No way they are doing something like that! /s

No doubt in my mind thats why the top was at least 20% lower than expected this cycle.

Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction, just a way for those in power to scoop off the top of a market..

So I have not expressed it a lot here but have spoken about it a bit on twangler.  Caitlyn whasserface who likes to talk a lot about "blockchain" from Wyoming...  She's always kinda given me the jibbities, but  one thing she brought to the fore for bitcoinners is "rehypothication".

I have often exchanged with her that I believed that one day we would see companies who try that (with a mathematically perfect bearer asset) get their asses handed to them.

Well..  Luna... Celsius, Blockfi?

Who is next?  We can only hope this is the "big one".  But still, allow me to smear my bullish interpretation all over it.

This will end up getting the attention of all the money people who have STARTED to get the idea that Bitcoin is different.  They will realize you cannot actually rehypothecate a digital bearer asset.  Because it is a  margin call waiting to happen.  Yes you can play all kinds of games with shitcoins... but ultimately Bitcoin is the backbone of it all.  And it does not suffer from those flaws.  There are no reserve banks to bail out these idiots.

It will take collateral damage like it is now...  But this is going to wake people up.  I think.

I am still waiting for the bull run for this cycle! Wink



I like your optimism but the bottom line is derivative are the means by which those in control steal from the holders.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2730822.0


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June 15, 2022, 11:06:20 PM

...

An hour or so ago, Bitcoin Magazine published the below piece on Wasabi Wallet 2.0:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/wasabi-wallet-2-contains-new-features-for-optimizing-bitcoin-coinjoins

Note that author Shawn Amick did not mention anything about the controversy surrounding Wasabi working with blockchain analysis companies to censor their coinjoin UTXOs....

Hmm...

Is Wasabi helping blockchain analysis companies track transactions?

There is a narrative that they are.  There is a narrative that spooks are behind Samourai too.  Honestly, if you want privacy Bitcoin is not ready.  (I would trust Samourai first..)

I agree, Samurai is far more trustworthy.

I highly doubt spooks are behind it and if they are then they are doing gods work.
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June 15, 2022, 11:59:18 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1), n0nce (1)

Avoid Wasabi.  Do not trust.
...

An hour or so ago, Bitcoin Magazine published the below piece on Wasabi Wallet 2.0:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/wasabi-wallet-2-contains-new-features-for-optimizing-bitcoin-coinjoins

Note that author Shawn Amick did not mention anything about the controversy surrounding Wasabi working with blockchain analysis companies to censor their coinjoin UTXOs....

Hmm...

Is Wasabi helping blockchain analysis companies track transactions?


Yup, 11 pages on Wasabi's decision to lessen privacy here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5286821.0


Thanks.  A few memorable posts that I had wanted to find—these excerpts adequately summarize the whole thread as it stands, insofar as I am concerned:

I get NotATether's point, though. Wasabi was very effective at keeping it on the low, so I feel it's crucial for us as a community to spread the word (e.g. through a blacklist Wink - I hope the irony in this topic title was appreciated! Cheesy).
The fact that their website not only doesn't admit that they are blacklisting, but in fact strongly implies that they aren't blacklist as I outlined above, is bordering on scam territory as far as I am concerned.

So I'm confused by the image, still. What do you guys think?
nopara73 and the Wasabi team are all under the delusion that they are the only viable privacy solution for Bitcoin and the last bastion of hope for the very existence of privacy. Without them, privacy is dead, in their minds. For example:
The alternative, discontinuing zkSNACKs would have set back Bitcoin privacy for decades. Blacklisting by the default coordinator, while undesirable, is a small price to pay for the future of Bitcoin's privacy.
That's exactly why we introduced blacklisting: so we can continue to operate and users can still have privacy using Bitcoin.
Wasabi Wallet 2.0 is decades ahead of other privacy solutions in Bitcoin.

I assume this is what the candle is supposed to be. Them valiantly spying on and blacklisting their users is our last hope against the darkness. Roll Eyes
For a wallet to censor some inputs as Wasabi is doing, then they must first choose which inputs to censor. They can only do this if they spy on every input, trace where it is coming from, who owns it, etc., in order to choose which ones they decide aren't good enough for them. If privacy is your goal, I would stay well clear of Wasabi, since they are now using your fees to pay blockchain analysis companies to spy on you.
[...] the solution to 'taint problems' is to simply avoid services that can out of the blue say 'oh these coins are tainted, we froze them'. Like, this is horrifying. What if I win a contest like Bitcointalk 2021 or someone donates me money, I need cash and send it to an exchange, only to find out they are allegedly 'tainted' and got frozen? This is not an argument against mixing, it's an argument against centralized exchanges / tainters.

Archive of Wasabi blog post on the subject:  http://archiveiya74codqgiixo33q62qlrqtkgmcitqx5u2oeqnmn5bpcbiyd.onion/hIYJO

Archive of a duplicitous Bitcoin Magazine article on this:  http://archiveiya74codqgiixo33q62qlrqtkgmcitqx5u2oeqnmn5bpcbiyd.onion/NVmpN


To that, I will add:


nopara73 seems to insinuate in that thread that Wasabi somehow had no choice.  I DGAF.  If he came under some covert pressure, I am deeply sympathetic—right up to the point that he complies.  At that point, I DGAF about him.

Ladar Levison of Lavabit showed us what a principled defender of privacy does, when placed under irresistible secret coercion to violate users’ trust in his company:  He shut down the company!

To be clear:  I am considering the extreme case of what may have happened here.  Reading between the lines.  I needn’t even consider the plausible alternative:  Just going with the flow of what seemed like a business requirement in today’s market, where centralized exchanges deter people from using Wasabi by declaring coins “tainted”.  That would be even worse!

They will always comply with the regulation of the government because they know if they don't certain restrictions will be imposed on them and hurdles will be passed on with their system.But more importantly they also don't care about users as they have setup these CEX for primary motives of profit and it doesn't matter if comes at the cost of privacy of the users.

It does not come at the cost of privacy of our users and we do care about them. That's exactly why we introduced blacklisting: so we can continue to operate and users can still have privacy using Bitcoin. If we wouldn't care about our users, then we would not have sacrificed our reputation, just shut down the service and nobody would have got any privacy.

No, really:  “Shut down the service” is the right thing to do here.  Ladar Levison could also have rationalized to himself keeping Lavabit running.  The point here is not how much of a breach of users’ trust is required:  It is irrelevant that USG demanded instant total compromise of all Lavabit users, while Wasabi claims that their system is so invincible that it doesn’t matter for user privacy that they are in bed with commercial blockchain spies (!).

Their system is not invincible.  CoinJoin is, in practice, obfuscating information that you have leaked on the blockchain.  It is only a cover-up.*  Now, there is a prominent company offering paid commercialized CJ—effectively in a shady de facto partnership with people who actively research every possible way to attack CJ.  WTF?

What does the nopara73’s handshake with the devil really buy?  The Wasabi-spy partnership is sufficiently lucrative to support a company with dozens of employees, plus a Bitcoin Forum signature campaign currently advertising “Up to 0.005 BTC/W” payouts.

I am not generally against making money—honestly.

Ladar Levison invested his personal wealth and years of his life in building a company that also had profits, employees, and numerous happy users who trusted him.  He did the right thing in 2013.  To protect his users who trusted him, he even risked potentially going to prison if the USG could cook up some novel legal theory applying NSLs to force someone to work as a slave running a honeypot spy service.  There actually was a serious attempt to argue that he was not legally permitted to shut down his own company, to evade compliance with the diktat of the almighty NSL.  It was a battle.  The USG was gunning for him so hard that I think the only way he survived was (a) he was standing on the grounds of accomplish facts, after his company publicly ceased operations; and, (b) he had numerous supporters in the mass-media, in nonprofit organizations that are armed to the teeth with lawyers, and in the general public.  Regardless, in the moment of truth, he shut down his own company to avoid betraying his users’ trust.

For nopara73 to claim so sanctimoniously that he runs the Wasabi-with-spying-and-censorship service for the sake of user privacy is outrageous.

(An edited/improved version of this post will probably appear in the relevant Development & Technology thread... sometime.  I should polish it up, maybe add some links if I have time, and perhaps elaborate on the funny timing of the Chainalysis announcement that they had allegedly doxed the Ethereum DAO hacker by tracing coins through a Wasabi CoinJoin.  Oh, yes, that is the service that nopara73 says is so invincible that nobody needs to worry here!)


* Although Greg Maxwell is a genius for having originally invented it, and CJ is theoretically sound when considered in isolation with very restricted attack scenarios, the real world is not so kind.  In practice, there are ways to attack CJ.

Typically, the attacks rely on correlating the leaked information that CJ tries to cover up with other sources of information, on partitioning CJ anonymity sets, on confirmation attacks, and/or on statistical probability rather than certainty.  And per Schneier’s aphorism, attacks only improve.  When your transactions are on the blockchain forever, fully public, they can be retrospectively analyzed with any newly discovered attacks—or with any newly discovered information that correlates humans to transactions for partition attacks and confirmation attacks.

Yes, this is why I have been obsessed for nine years with the dream of seeing zero-knowledge proofs for Bitcoin:  The only way to prevent all possibility of such attacks is to leak no information at all.  ZK proofs are called “zero knowledge” for a reason.

The prospect of a paid commercial CJ platform that cut a shady deal with commercial spies should raise the hairs on the backs of everyone’s necks.  At this point, I frankly trust Wasabi less than I trust a totally centralized blackbox “trust us not to track you” mixer service run by anonymous parties.  After all, the latter perhaps may not be a honeypot; and if it’s not, then the anonymous operators are protected by their anonymity from coercion to violate their users’ trust.  LOL, what a sad standard for privacy:  That is strictly superior to a service that’s known to be in bed with blockchain analysis!
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June 16, 2022, 12:01:24 AM


Explanation
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June 16, 2022, 12:09:17 AM

Already 10% up from the low !
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June 16, 2022, 12:11:32 AM
Last edit: June 16, 2022, 12:23:16 AM by Torque

I am not expecting this, but is it possible that they truly lost it?
We shall see.
Will 3.5-3.75 interest rate be enough by the EOY?

There is a nice video from Ben Cowen about inflation and stock market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0fM5nlujp4

One thing that was informative is that seventies had three inflation spikes, followed by valleys, but the first one was smaller than our current spike, but it is entirely possible that it would work out like this (my speculation):

1. A current spike extending to EOY (inflation peaking maybe at 9, and probably below 10).
2. Markets at the lowest with inflation at the highest.
3. Decline in inflation (2023-2024) to 3.5-4% with stocks (and bitcoin) recovering and peaking in 2025 with bitcoin at 100K or slightly (20-40%) above and stocks within 5-10% of the prior peak (could be small ATH).
4. Second spike in inflation to 9-12% (maybe by 2026-2027). Fed rate at something currently unimaginable (maybe 5-7% or even higher), markets crushed again, but making higher lows (including btc). The bear cycle ends around 2028-2032 with prices still significantly higher than in 2026-2027.
5. Inflation finally going down, FED is easing profusely, a new secular bull market in everything (could last 20 years). Bitcoin cycles diminished, much smoother ride (for those who are still around).

The whole world now runs on cheap debt. There are some very smart people who believe that the Fed cannot sustain rates on the 10-yr higher than 4%, because legit shit in the global financial system will start breaking down. The stonk market will begin to implode, global bank liquidity will vanish, corporate zombies will go bankrupt, and worldwide sovereign debt defaults galore. Not to mention just the interest alone that will need to be paid every year on America's national debt...unobtainable and unsustainable.

If we have long periods of the 10-yr above 4%, something will eventually start to break. Which I believe is the Fed's plan all along, they need something to catastrophically break down so that they can have a convenient excuse to slam rates back to 0-1% and moar money printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
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June 16, 2022, 12:20:08 AM





Ahahaha... That old fart doesn't know what he is talking about. He is dealing with "MAD MAX FINANCIAL SYSTEM" that is the crypto ecosystem.  Cool  Cool

But.. I do feel something weird in the lines of $16K < > $18K. EVEN IF I F^CKING VOTED FOR $18K < > $19K in the poll.   Roll Eyes  Tongue   Tongue
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June 16, 2022, 12:33:28 AM

One big reason for the inflation is that supply is disrupted. Because of 2 men, basically. Putin for starting a stupid war, and Xi for sticking to a stupid COVID strategy. I think the worse one (for the economy) is China, because it causes inflation on everything we get from China, which is basically everything.

We have to hope that at some point Xi will ditch the "saving face" obsession and change course.

Or maybe we don't, and the world order changes quicker than expected.
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June 16, 2022, 12:44:08 AM

Nice little bit of up but not enough for me to think we're safe from the ongoing smackdowns, sadly.
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June 16, 2022, 12:53:12 AM
Last edit: June 16, 2022, 01:10:03 AM by death_wish


FUCK YOU, BUDDY!  Fuck you, you actively malicious son of a bitch.  I hate you.

First, you take away almost the last of my bitcoins under 200 WMA.  You leave me with dust.  Dollhouse-sized finances.

Then, you run away while I am a broken-down wreck with almost no money, and no practiacl ability at this particular moment to do something productive to magick up a measly $20,000 or $21,000 to buy myself a whole One Bitcoin, 1.0 BTC.  I need to unplug and sleep for a week.  I need some time to vent and grieve.  WTF are you doing to me, you fucking sadist?

You had better fucking watch out.  REVENGE.  I am thinking that I should go blackhat, track you down, smash your stack with my fist, DROP TABLE throughout your database like a Bitcoin Bull in a china shop, dd if=/dev/random onto your binaries and source code, and piss on your grave.  How does that sound to you, Buddy?  Well, you should have thought of that, before you fucked with my bitcoins.

FUCK.  YOU!

* death_wish is a sane, rational adult now reduced to screaming profanities and impotent violent threats in public at a robot.  So dignified.  Smooth and professional.  Hey, newbies, margin accounts are great!  So are BTC-backed loans, on terms that ordinary people can access with a few clicks!  Buy BTC long on leverage!  Don’t sell your BTC:  Borrow against it!  You can become like this, too!  Maybe you will kill yourselves.  Seriously, at this particular moment, what most decisively stops me from living up to my name is that I AM NOT ALLOWED TO DIE WITH ONLY 0.0495 BTC.  Fuck.  Me, of all people, reduced to dust almost tantamount to being a nocoiner.  On the day I die, I MUST have at least 1.0 BTC, One Whole Bitcoin.  For peace of soul.  Bare minimum—much less than I just lost, which I will never have back even if I make myself 21,000 BTC in the future.  I have been thinking about this since yesterday—since before anyone else mentioned 1 BTC as a goal.  It is not about the fucking money:  Bitcoin is money, and it is more than money.  The first time that I ever bought BTC, I did not care about price appreciation—was not even thinking about it:  I wanted to have Bitcoin, and that’s that.  Bitcoin is money—and it is also honour and nobility and high ideals, for those who have honour and nobility and high ideals.  Now, if someone were to offer me a dilemma at this particular moment, between $1 million in the bank (but somehow forbidden to buy BTC), and 1 BTC in my wallet with my own private keys, then I would choose the 1 BTC—not to have spendable money, but because I need to have at least 1 BTC.  (How is that for fucking Gresham’s Law?)  I am not whole without a whole One Bitcoin.  I am now frightened of unintentionally dying without One Whole Bitcoin; hey, anyone can die at any time, even if they don’t want to.  IT CANNOT END LIKE THIS.  NOT LIKE THIS.  When I have a whole One Bitcoin, then I may consider whether or not having One Bitcoin justifies and redeems the existence in this world of a fool who lost and dissipated much more, when he damn well knew better.  I am generally pitiless, ruthless, judgmental.  I do not suffer fools kindly, and I do not wish to be a hypocrite about that.
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June 16, 2022, 12:54:42 AM

Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

~35% portfolio = BTC

I'm not sure how I took the extremely bold step, but now I'm 80% in BTC.

40% long-term stash and 40% short-term (for a bounce to $30k or something).

IIRC you previously sodl it all in the 40's (which back then looked like a risky/almost foolish bet), right?

Well played Raja!
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June 16, 2022, 01:30:36 AM
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Cycle Bottom confirmed. (June 15, 2022)

A new Baby Bull Market is born. In time it will grow to be a full grown Raging Bull. 


Bargain Boyz asked me to thank weak hands and gamblers for their sacrifice.



1 day into the new Baby Bull Market and all is well.  Cheesy

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June 16, 2022, 01:53:22 AM

One big reason for the inflation is that supply is disrupted.

Supply is not just being 'disrupted', it is straight up being shrunk on purpose. For many things the supply will never again go back to pre-Covid levels, at least not for a very long time. People think supply will resume and thus plentiful, cheaper goods are going to come bouncing back here soon... news flash, they won't.

And everyone top to bottom is in on it. As a side note, I was watching a Jim Cramer video clip on CNBC today, and caught him muttering to another talking head, "Well, you know, the Fed would like to see companies cut back on producing so much... that's why they're doing what they're doing." He *actually* said that on air.

My mouth dropped open. I was like, WTAF did I just hear?? So the Fed is now dictating or directing how much 'supply' of goods and services corporations will produce, by throttling the Fed funds rate.

Wow, just wow.
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