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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367536 times)
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June 30, 2022, 12:56:14 AM
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https://www.axios.com/2022/06/28/bitcoin-is-the-only-coin-the-sec-chair-will-call-a-commodity


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Monday morning, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, said on CNBC's Squawk Box that the only token he would lump in with commodities was bitcoin.
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June 30, 2022, 01:20:55 AM
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So I'm hearing rumblings in the MSM of a final crypto "washout" coming supposedly this holiday weekend.

Washout being obvious code for "Poorly coordinated bear raid."

Should be amusing if it happens. Perhaps another good buying opportunity.
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June 30, 2022, 01:22:08 AM
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call me shocked  Roll Eyes

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/06/30/sec-rejects-grayscales-spot-bitcoin-etf-application/

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June 30, 2022, 01:27:53 AM

So I'm hearing rumblings in the MSM of a final crypto "washout" coming supposedly this holiday weekend.

Washout obvious code for "Poorly coordinated bear raid."

Should be amusing if it happens. Perhaps another good buying opportunity.

If it's MSM, I tend to expect the opposite...

But market looks shite so we might well go down..  who cares
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June 30, 2022, 02:06:23 AM
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https://www.axios.com/2022/06/28/bitcoin-is-the-only-coin-the-sec-chair-will-call-a-commodity


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Monday morning, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, said on CNBC's Squawk Box that the only token he would lump in with commodities was bitcoin.

Incommodious for non-Bitcoin “crypto assets”—especially, IMO, for POS coins:

Quote
Driving the news: "Many of these financial assets, crypto assets, have the key attributes of a security... some like bitcoin, and that's the only one, Jim, I'm going to say, because I'm not going to talk about any of these tokens, my predecessors and others have said they're a commodity," Gensler said.

Although that Axios article do not mention POS, and this seems to be much broader than the issue of POS coins, I can’t help but notice how this fits together with the POW vs. POS debate.

One of my several core anti-POS theses is that POS coins are unavoidably securities, on grounds of “looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck”.  That is:  No matter what they are called, they “have the key attributes of a security”.  In altcoinland, I have observed POS promoters use the thinly-veiled language of “stakeholders” to describe what, in substance, are undeniably equities.  (I have been intending to write up my anti-POS theses in an organized way—need to stop wasting time messing with people whose arguments don’t matter.)

When I am extraordinarily vehement, there is usually a reason; and the reason for my vehemence against treating Bitcoin as “like a stock” is to avoid this trap.  If you buy Bitcoin, your paid-in equity is zero.  You are not a “stakeholder”.  You make no capital contribution to Bitcoin.  Rather, you are exchanging your fiat money to a cryptocurrency, which Gensler characterizes as a commodity—close enough, for these particular purposes, insofar as gold is also a commodity.

We must preserve this characteristic which has defined Bitcoin since its beginning.  It is not for nothing that many of my posts on that subject have concluded:  “Don’t argue with me.  Take it up with the SEC.”

Of course, POS is not the only way for a coin to make of itself an unregistered security.  Emphasis is in the original:

Quote
Zooming out: Ethereum was launched with a fundraiser in 2014 that most see now as a securities offering. The question is whether it has become a commodity, and whether that answer provides the regulatory roadmap for other cryptocurrencies.

In my own opinion (looking beyond this article), the Ethereum POS switch will drive in the final nail on the coffin there.  Even if ETH ever arguably became a commodity, in my opinion, the switch to being a token for “stakeholders” (i.e., thinly-veiled shareholders) will make it indubitably a security.  @SECgov will undoubtedly notice.



Note well:  Gensler did not say that Bitcoin is the only “crypto asset” which is a commodity.  Rather, he gave a tiny bit of clarity about Bitcoin while making the situation for altcoins as clear as mud.  This is classic FUD on altcoins—the sowing of literal “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt”—but it is FUD from a very dangerous direction, i.e. the SEC Chairman.

Quote
The SEC did not respond to a request for comment and clarification from Axios.


Screenshot: @HaileyLennonBTC (Twitter)

My own analysis, looking far beyond this Axios article:  The way that the SEC is leaning, altcoins that want to avoid regulatory attacks should be running as far away from POS as they can, and making themselves more Bitcoinlike.  I myself think that some of the better alts are clearly also commodities, at least insofar as the “commodities vs. securities” dichotomy is concerned in this context..  However, I am not the SEC—and the SEC’s opinion is the problem they must face.  In this regulatory environment, where altcoins need to make sure they strictly avoid taking on “the key attributes of a security”, embracing the unregistered securities sham of POS is shooting oneself in the foot.  Needless to say, I think that the ridiculous campaign to switch Bitcoin to POS is a campaign to turn Bitcoin into an illegal unregistered securities offering.

Suggestion:  The next time that some idiot spouts at you some nonsense about switching Bitcoin to POS, shoot back:  “Why do you want to turn perfectly legal BTC into an illegal unregistered security?”

(Not legal advice.  Reasonable predictions of how the SEC and other securities regulators around the world will probably converge in their future actions.  I have no crystal ball, but I can see the writing on the wall.)
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June 30, 2022, 02:16:08 AM
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Time flies.  With this post in period 1369, death_wish shall be activity-bumped to Member rank.
then maybe you can start a thread or even start your own fund?

Is that your suggestion, Jay?

it's a possibility..

I want to make this clear up-top:

That was NOT on my mind when I raised this discussion.

In the past, it has happened that I was privately solicited to do such a thing.  At the time, it was partly a thinly-veiled way to try to make me stop wasting time, and work on Core myself.  The implication from the one with the money was that I would be eligible to take a grant from the fund—hint, hint, write some code!  That looked like a fiduciary COI to me; and moreover, although I am competent to evaluate hypothetical grants, I am frankly intimidated by the idea of coding for Core myself.  I have a very high opinion of my own abilities, but I also know my limitations.  Dunning-Kruger cases are unable to evaluate where they stand—I know perfectly well where I stand.  I am not an experienced C++ coder (C, yes—C++, no, and it is a very different language despite the similarity of names).  Some of the leading Core devs are like rock stars to me.  And “mission critical” barely even begins to describe the importance of supreme competence in Core.

What it boiled down to is that I did not want to undertake that level of commitment and responsibility.  Not as a fiduciary, and not merrily making COI payments to myself to write code in an environment where my self-confidence is so shaky.  All in all—it was flattering, but the idea went nowhere.

That was NOT on my mind when I raised this discussion.

Now that you raise it, I want to emphasize this in BIG BOLD LETTERS:  At this particular point in time and circumstances, the only way that I would start such a fund would be if (a) I could show a solid commit history myself, or (b) I had a private source of nontrivial funding, before asking the public for anything.

In the latter case, I would NOT be starting a thread in the manner of, “I have nothing, I offer nothing, but I am talented at evaluating grant applications to hand out Other People’s Money—please, please, please contribute!!!”

Rather, it would be:  “Here is a fund, with not-insignificant provable assets.  I am now evaluating grants, and paying out money.  Core developers are welcome to apply, so that they can get paid to devote more time and effort to Core.  HODLers are welcome to chip in, if they trust my honesty and my absolute executive discretion in deciding who should get what for which type of work.  Grants from my starting source of funds will develop a track record for my handling of Other People’s Money.  If nobody else ever contributes, then fine—I will simply spend the existing money until it’s gone, then put the whole thing on pause unless/until more money is available.  

Surely it seems more credible to begin to solicit funds once a system is already in place and surely if there are already funders and some monies have already begun to get distributed.  Accordingly, then it may well depend upon the credibility of anyone person, also it could provide value if there were a team, too.. so that there is potential for checks and balances.

Sometimes there are benefits in having checks and balances, but if there is a tight nit group of funders, they might not feel that it is necessary to have checks and balances... I could not really speculate that there would ONLY be one way to set up such funding things, and I suppose that whether checks and balances are included as part of the system or procedures to be followed would depend on how far outside of a tight nit group that the fund administrator might be soliciting funds.


Those who don’t believe in my integrity are free not to give; if you don’t know me, I do not take it personally.  Those who wish not to believe in my integrity, but wish to smear me and spite me, can go piss up a rope; I will rain hellfire on them, to the extent that I deign to notice them at all.”

If you feel like turning the matter into combat, then sure. fine..

Jay, one of the advantages of never being a beggar is that I never need to beg.

It seems that we should not want to put ourselves into a position in which we need to beg, if it can be helped.

I have gotten myself into pretty bad pickles in the past, and surely sometimes people (even strangers) are helpful and generous.  

I remember once being in a really bad situation in which a guy gave me a ride, and I obviously put myself into such bad position and the guy knew it too.. but he held his tongue for the most part, and it was pretty clear that the guy was not very well to do, and when he delivered my lame ass to my destination, I said let me go inside and get some money for you.  He said.  Don't worry about it.  this is on me.  I felt bad in some kind of way, but the guy was being charitable to me - even though I really did not deserve it.. and he had gotten me out of a pickle in which it was pretty clear that I was not a very deserving person.

In terms of known interest, my best contacts for this purpose disappeared years ago.  Nonetheless, I do know some people who have money on a “does not waste time on Internet forums” level, who care about Bitcoin because they are deeply invested in it.  I could ask if they are interested.  Of course, that would be up to them; and given that the types of people who could afford this tend to have cut-and-dry savvy and careful planning, I think a bad bear market is an unlikely time to get support for suddenly starting such a project.  The bigger question to me is whether I should even be thinking of such a thing right now, instead of working for my own profit in a healthy way.

I heard that it is better to put your own mask on first before worrying about if others are wearing their masks or even able to get to a position to put on their masks.

And that leads me to:

Yes, it seems to make some differences regarding how much help that you have.... and maybe even how long you (or your organization) has been in existence. You must have at least 3 assistants D_W.. hahahaha

Maybe part of the reason that many charitable groups are criticized for having so many administrative costs would be that sometimes it can even take some time to figure out how money is going to be given, but at the same time, once systems are in place (and criteria) established it likely becomes somewhat easier to keep doing what you are set up to do.

I generally detest the “nonprofit” world.  Generally.  

What I had been saying does not even need to fit within "non-profit."  It's just a matter of whether you have a system and practice in place and how many assistants you might have for carrying out the goals and objectives that are set forth in the mandate.  Sometimes non-profit seems to fit the description of how everything is arranged including the goals since it might be difficult for the endeavor to have goals of making money if their mandate is to carry out duties of distributing funds....  I am not sure how you make money on that, unless you might include  a NFT.. hahahaha.. The whole objective does not seem to be designed in a way that has a money-making purpose.. just distributing money and maybe paying for the efforts of those involved in "gettin ur dun.".. so in that regard it would most likely fit a definitionary objective of not aiming to make money as its central purpose.

There are some good people doing good work with honest motivations; I do not want to broad-brush here.  But generally, “nonprofit” attracts corruption.  In the past, I personally knew some people who drew six-figure salaries in executive sinecures spending Other People’s Money, at famous-name, highly-trusted organizations.  Their behaviour made me sick.  Much sicker to me was how highly they were hailed for their personal “altruism” and “philanthropy”.

Sure.. that kind of shit happens.. I am not sure if "non-profit" is the blame.. but of course, people can end up getting into positions in which they end up milking systems and then there is no one really able to throw them out.... so surely that does happen quite a bit.  How can it be fixed?:  Can there be meaningful checks and balances designed from within?


For that reason, anytime I aim to do some noble deed, I attempt to self-fund.  

Well, if you set something up, and then you want it to continue beyond your abilities to do the work and/or maybe beyond your death.. how do you set up your system in a way that allows it to continue to operate within your own established objectives and does not become a milk cow for bad motives..  Absent real strong visions and even the placement of good people within (difficult to know in advance), not easy to accomplish, I would imagine.

Even if you have a $10 million fund, your whole operating budget would only be about $400k per year (assuming an ability to draw 4% per year on the principle funds).  You might be able to spend half of that annual budget on administration and half on distribution to targets.

If you are administrating the fund yourself (since you funded it), maybe you could purposefully choose to have slimmer administration costs and draw a lower salary.  a $50k per year salary for you and a $50k for an assistant (if you need or want one), but there are operating expenses too, no?  It's hard to imagine a fund (even self-funded) smaller than $10 million being able to potentially perpetuate itself beyond your inability to continue with the work or your death... but if you are administering a fund long enough, you could still strive to continue to grow the fund to become larger than $10 million, and if it is starting out by growing itself by being invested in bitcoin and even holding most of its wealth in bitcoin, then it may well be possible that the fund will be able to grow on its own beyond the amount that it is spending each year.

Even devoting my time and effort to writing about issues I deem important—I so fiercely guard my integrity and independence that I even dislike putting out a tip address like yours, even though there’s nothing wrong with that; I may want to reconsider such extremes.  

I question whether I should even say anything beyond having a public bitcoin address can be used as a means to verify identify if a forum account ever gets hacked...You really speculate that I am begging or could be understood (misinterpreted) to be begging?  right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Suffice it to say, I now have some problems with an abject lack of self-funding resources.  I currently have a project I deem important under another identity, not on this forum, which is stalled since my BTC got almost wiped.

Maybe I could revise my idea that a minimum self-funded program directed at funding others to be at least $10million in order to have a $400k budget per year.

I don't consider a project that does not sustain principle to really be operating in a sustainable way, but if you are wanting to self-fund yourself, then surely you would not necessarily need $10 million for that.  If you were bare bones then you probably could have $500k in principle, which would generate $20k per year (of course a 4% withdrawal rate) - if you believe that you could be self-funded for $20k per year.  Again, I do not believe drawing into principle is a good idea, and I believe that it is poor asset management, unless you happen to be just wanting to use up all of the money in the fund..


If someone gives you $100k and they say that they want you to spend all of it over 5 years, then you might agree to those terms in which you are spending all of the funding.. principle and everything.  If they tell you that they are giving you $1million, but they ONLY want you to spend from the income generated off of that $1million, then you may well conclude that assuming a 4% per year withdrawal rate your budget its $40k per year or $3,333 per month.

Whether you generate the money yourself and then set the terms or you get the money from someone else and they set the terms (that you agree upon), there surely can be differences in how it is set up and if it is just some kind of a short term fling or if it set up in a kind of sustainable way in which you are spending off of the passive income rather than having to spend from the principle.
 
If I were to do something like a Core development fund, then insofar as practicable, I would want to avoid or minimize spending it on reimbursing myself for my own time and effort.  Even to the extent that that would be justified, I dislike that idea.  That leaves a practical problem right now.  I probably should not even be thinking about this right now.  “Ruthless mercenary capitalist” is supposed to be my agenda!

It is not bad to think about those kinds of things, especially since my earlier responses seem to be describing several of those kinds of scenarios about whether you are completely self-funded in terms of generating your own funds to fund your own efforts, whether you receive outside funding to fund your own core developing efforts or if those funds are supposed to be distributed to others (not yourself),  of course, it could be both and it could be sustainable or not sustainable and spending all of the principle in a proscribed period.  
 
I suppose over the years, many of us in this thread have seen how bitcoin is broken in x, y or z areas.. and it can be a bit wearing.. so frequently the suggestion would be what you doing to try to fix it rather than just whining about the so many ways that bitcoin is deficient/defective and other coins have some supposedly various better processes and features that need to come to bitcoin.... so sometimes it can end up causing questions regarding what's the purpose to be constantly whining about the so many areas that bitcoin is supposedly broken.. and maybe many of us might not even agree with starting out with such premise that it is broken.. even though maybe some things can be built or more awareness on certain topics.. [...]
I agree with that.  I balance that against the need for candor in constructive criticism, avoiding the problem of yes-men, groupthink, cheerleading, and hollow shilling.  Perhaps you and I may balance that differently, but I do try to balance it.

It could be the case.  Not saying it is not..  At least not at this specific moment... Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

A life protip for you:  It is possible for a poor person to be friends with a rich person, if the former has the pride never to be a beggar, a mooch, or a cheater.  I learned this when young:  By a peculiar circumstance, I had lunch with a businessman.  He was impressed that when lunch was done, I pulled out my wallet and picked up my part of the tab.  I was a youth working odd jobs for low wages.  He was rich, and accustomed to people trying to mooch off of him.  We became fast friends.

Are you telling me something that you speculated that I did not already know in regards to judgement/character and even things that sometimes might happen in the real world to affect how character/credibility might be assessed by others?    A lot of factors come to play in terms of judging the character of others and whether there is trust, and also how much time/testing has to take place before trust develops.  there can be a difference between I trust you to do my gardening or I trust you to drive my car or I trust you to do my office work or I trust you to be my personal accountant... or I trust you to take my daughter on a date... hahahahaha thought that I would throw that last one in there for fuuuuuuun..

Another thing I want to make excruciatingly clear:  There is no bigger red flag than someone who gratuitously brags about his own honesty, and demands that others trust him for no apparent reason.  There is even a stereotype of a scammer who uses the word “Honest” in the name of his business.  Doth protest too much, methinks.

I do not and would not do that.  But when others cast groundless, wholly unjustified insinuations against my honesty (or in the case of some others here, viciously smear me as a liar), then sometimes, I do need to defend my honour.  It may involve walking a fine line.

Please recall my initial response when you implied some questions about the veracity of something I had said.  I told you that you are free to think whatever you want, as long as you do not defame me with what, in substantial effect, would be an attack on my reputation based on all cynicism and no evidence.  I said, in effect, that I do not wish to waste my time discussing anything with anyone who does not find me credible.

That is fair.  I have asked nothing from anyone here.  I have spent time and effort contributing posts that some people found valuable.  I have friends off-forum who know me and trust me; a part of the reason for my current WO posting spree is to relieve them of an emotional burden they have been suffering since January.  After months of patiently enduring my misery, they didn’t catch the brunt of my grief at catastrophic loss—y’all did, right here.

Why should I subject myself to your questions about my integrity?  I don’t need you, and I don’t need that.  Regrettably, due to opsec, I cannot even be tempted by your daughter—not unless you can PGP-encrypt her and send her through Tor to tryst with me.

 I doubt that I need to say anything in response to this diatribe... , so I won't.

I have friends who are wealthier than I am.  I have never abused their friendship—not even at times when I was personally in much worse desperation than I am now.  Because I never abuse their friendship, they respect me as their equal—even if I am flat broke.  I have nothing but contempt for the bent of your strawman.
It's too bad that you feel contempt... about my way of attempting to grapple with my perceptions of what might be important and/or relevant points to make in these here interwebs.   It could be possible that others might potentially be able to get value from some of our interactions, if they had not fallen asleep half way though them.
Contempt was for the implications of raising an idea that I was neither offering nor thinking about, then shooting it down based on slighting my credibility to do your idea.  Not for you personally.

I am not even sure if I was doing it intentionally in every instance, but surely each of us has times in which we do not necessarily accept the frame (or framework) of the other person, so we (royal that is) make a response that provides our own frame (or framework) on the topic.  

You can take such frame for whatever it is worth, or accuse me of strawmanning or being insensitive (and cruel), failing to respond to your "honor" or whatever fallacy you believe applies.. which you have already accused me of various fallacies in response to you and I have accused you of various fallacies and misleading ways of arguing your points too.. including irrelevancies and pumping of various  narratives/bitcoin naysaying talking points, too..  Sure, you and others complain about me, and sometimes I complain about others including you.  Whether it seeps into other posts or there seems to be a pattern that is identified might become part of any response too.

Some issues might continue to come up, and I am not sure if there is any way to resolve. sometimes the issues will just fade away too because they get beaten to death or maybe neither of us is bringing up the issue..   for example, when you unilaterally proclaim that I capitulated on a point merely because you wish to have such reading of what had happened, and then you expect that issue to not come up anymore, then you have likely read the matter wrong (and your expectations are too high)... There surely have been some times that I have let certain issues slide (just like you probably have too), and so sometimes those issues still might come up later down the road... unless you get some statement from me in which I truly proclaim that I am not going to talk about a certain topic again, but I have seen members go back on those kinds of claims/promises too.  I might have even done that from time to time myself.  I cannot recall (or at least I cannot represent that I have not gone back on my prior promises.. hahahahaha).
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June 30, 2022, 03:22:24 AM

I think we HAVE to go down some more... but that chart is encouraging a little because the money to be made playing this reliable game means the price want's to be made to go up.  We COULD have bottommed as many people say... but usually bitcoin bottoms are more violent than this one has seemed to have been.

If my memory is serving me very well, our move down to $17,593 (a mere 11 days ago) was pretty violent so far.. and we are still more than 10% below the 200-week-moving average (which also feels like a kind of ongoing violence.. but what do I know?).. It kind of reminds me of  our early 2015 bottom down to $153 or whatever it was?  That felt violent, too... but what do I know?

And Bitcoin does not care. 

Oh look!  Block 742858 is going to show up any second!  Or should I say, any 10 minute?

Hahahaha

I like that.  It's a great reminder. 


tick tock next block, and when will that next bitcoin block be coming in? 
in about 10 minutes   


 the last block was 2 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in 10 minutes


But the last block was 9.5 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, give or take.



But the last block was 35 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, I presume.


But, but but but..  the last block was more than 2 hours ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
more or less in 10 minutes.


hahahaha

10 minutes is always the correct answer.. or some variation of 10 minutes.. like 600 seconds  or somewhere between 500 and 700 seconds - give or take


Damn it, Saylor.  You greedy guts, grabbing up and hogging a limited resource.  Leave some coins for the rest of us, will ya? Cry

I talk so much about Bitcoin, I’ve got to get me some more of them bitcoins. Smiley

I am sure if you want to get another 0.05 bitcoins - you should be able to find 'nuff liquid bitcoins for that... in other words, no problema.

[edited out]

An asset that's worth its salt can have "influencers", hodlers, diamond hands, paper hands, supporters, detractors, haters, etc. at any point throughout a thousand years (or in the case of PMs, many thousands). They will come and go, live and die.

Do you think that asset cares what the fk any of them think or do? Holding an asset is neither a flex, a fashion show, nor a popularity contest.

Bitcoin will outlive us all.

(And now I feel like an idiot personifying an inanimate digital network)

Even though I agree with your overall points, bitcoin can serve as a flex that goes above and beyond the flex abilities of existing or prior existing in terms of its potentialities to be time-locked, and so long as the network still exists it can be passed through generations.. there surely are risks that are different from passing down physical property//assets.. but surely could be a powerful flex for anyone who figures out ways to attempt to harness such bitcoin powers... that cause his/her hand to reach up from the grave far down the road (even 100s of years) - and even better if anyone is able to keep a secret and also pass such secret down (potentially to have such bitcoin be received by some undeserving snot-nosed brats).
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June 30, 2022, 03:37:47 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Even devoting my time and effort to writing about issues I deem important—I so fiercely guard my integrity and independence that I even dislike putting out a tip address like yours, even though there’s nothing wrong with that; I may want to reconsider such extremes.

I question whether I should even say anything beyond having a public bitcoin address can be used as a means to verify identify if a forum account ever gets hacked...You really speculate that I am begging or could be understood (misinterpreted) to be begging?  right.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Jay, please stop misinterpreting my words to the opposite of what I said—even as you quote me!  (Highlighting has been added to internal quote above.)

What I said, very obviously, is that I admittedly go too far.  I am so paranoid of coming off like a beggar that I shoot myself in the foot.  I have been reconsidering that.  Seriously.  WTF am I doing to myself?  I damn well know that there is a world of difference between honour and masochistic self-abnegation.  But I self-conscious about it when I fear being perceived as needy; if nobody knew my financial circumstance right now, then I would already have a tip address.  I have put out tip addresses before, which I deleted when I leaked info that I thought may give the perception of my being needy.

As you probably know, a Core developer on staff moderating the technical forum (formerly knightdk) has had a tip address in his signature for years.  I respect him highly.  theymos has a tip address in his signature.  Do you suppose that I am accusing them of begging?  If not, then why do you suppose that I “speculate” that you are begging?  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes back atcha.



Re funding for Core development:

The major substance of your post proposes what, in substance, would be an endowment.  It is a good idea.  However, it would require much more sophistication (and accordingly, higher administrative overhead).  I had been thinking more simply:  Raise money, spend it.  I will think about this further.  I do not foresee immediate action on it, anyway.  Besides any other questions, jumping into such a project in a bear market with no advance planning is not a very good approach; I’m not the one saying so.

Some of your guesses about numbers are pretty good, though I don’t want to say more about that right now.

I will think this over; I may reply further if/when it makes sense to write a long post on this particular topic.  Whether to bounce around more ideas in a public discussion, or beyond that.

Something else that’s been on my mind:

I like what e.g. MIT-DCI does with Wladimir.  Per-project grants are good and necessary; paying someone’s full-time salary gets a different type of long-term result.

I observe that, to the best of my knowledge, there is a lack of sufficient opportunities for strongly anonymous/pseudonymous developers.  Satoshi himself would be unable to obtain the position that Wladimir has with MIT-DCI.  But a part of Bitcoin’s resilience is the active contribution of parties who cannot be identified IRL—to be blunt, those who can merrily ignore any frivolous lawsuits from Craig Wright, who are immune to public harassment, etc., etc.  This is not merely a theoretical concern—not cypherpunk “paranoia”!

Given that I am strongly pseudonymous, and I never intend to be otherwise, it is interesting to me that there is probably a niche with unmet needs for funding developers who refuse to be doxed for any reason whatsoever.  “By their PGP-signed commits shall ye know them.”
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June 30, 2022, 04:03:28 AM


Explanation
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June 30, 2022, 04:04:58 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

A technical correction of commonplace misinformation:

And Bitcoin does not care.  

Oh look!  Block 742858 is going to show up any second!  Or should I say, any 10 minute?

Hahahaha

I like that.  It's a great reminder.  


tick tock next block, and when will that next bitcoin block be coming in?  
in about 10 minutes  


 the last block was 2 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block?  
in 10 minutes


But the last block was 9.5 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block?  
in about 10 minutes, give or take.



But the last block was 35 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block?  
in about 10 minutes, I presume.


But, but but but..  the last block was more than 2 hours ago?  When do you expect the next block?  
more or less in 10 minutes.


hahahaha

10 minutes is always the correct answer.. or some variation of 10 minutes.. like 600 seconds  or somewhere between 500 and 700 seconds - give or take

No.  That is entirely wrong.  It is widely believed even by longtime Bitcoiners—probably because “each block takes about ten minutes” just keeps being repeated as a meme, without the intervention of correct information.  It also goes to show how much people’s perceptions let them fool themselves about reality; how often do you see a block arrival time of “about 10 minutes”?  Only about 12% of blocks even have an arrival time between 500 and 700 seconds—a supermajority of blocks do not!  (You do correctly imply that the system is memoryless.)

I will quote myself from the technical forum (where, incidentally, I rack up merit much faster than in WO, where I am widely disliked and ignore-listed):

IMO, it means much more to everyday usage that half of blocks are much faster than 10 minutes (but the average is dragged up to 10 minutes by the long exponential tail).
To be pedantic: 63.2% of blocks are faster than 10 minutes.

Pedantry is good.  I spoke imprecisely.  I was thinking of the median.  Statistically, exactly 50% of blocks arrive within about 6:56 m:s or less; that is >= 30.7% faster than 10 minutes, “much faster” in my book.

Although this is tangential to the context in which it was raised, I miss no opportunity to help address a common error.  Most Bitcoiners get this wrong—even most regulars in Development & Technology.  Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.

People also tend not to understand that in a memoryless system, the statistically expected arrival time starts “right now”—whenever “now” is.  Without checking when the last block occurred, I know that at the moment I make this post, the next block has a 25% chance of arriving within about 2:53 from now, a 50% chance of arriving within 6:56 from now, a 75% chance of arriving within 13:52 from now, and a 25% chance of arriving >= 13:52 from now.  The arrival time of the last block is irrelevant.


I otherwise mostly agreed with cAPSLOCK’s post.  I had intended to address the foregoing as part of a longer reply to him.  Perhaps I may complete the rest later.
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June 30, 2022, 04:08:21 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


Grayscale has already sued (backed by solicitor general Don Verrilli, one of the leading appellate litigators) the SEC. Similar what happened in Canada few years ago, 3iQ recieved world's first Bitcoin ETF afterwards.

Not saying it will be the same in the U.S.

Meanwhile, another new spot Bitcoin ETF has launched in Switzerland yesturday..
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June 30, 2022, 04:18:46 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I notice that ChartBuddy missed some recent updates.  Is the problem on Buddy’s end?  Or did Buddy experience a timeout as I sometimes have, with the inferior robot* being too dumb to retry? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I did recently add some retry code to Chartbuddy. He'll try three times over the course of three minutes then give up. The problem could be anywhere along the line. I believe I added some error debugging too so I should probably take a look. I want to rework the code anyway as I think I should be able to get a lot closer to "on the hour". Currently, it's the time taken to generate and upload the chart then the time to log in then a wait for reasons I don't know but it fails if I don't then whatever it actually takes to make the post.
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June 30, 2022, 04:20:17 AM

“Slip up”?  With what, you retarded wannabe Sherlock Holmes?  Ever since May, I have been quite openly making numerous statements that show a long, deep, and detailed knowledge of this forum.  You only just noticed that now? Roll Eyes

Are you Jorge Stolfi?































 Grin
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June 30, 2022, 04:32:27 AM

Almost every little 'bobblehead' on youtube/twitter/tradingview keeps blabbering about 10K-14K bottom.
To me it says that it won't be THAT.
My preference (and it looks like the WO on average) is that the bottom was "already", but the whole cycle is messed up so much that it is difficult to be certain.

So true. I'd be neutral right now about a return to $25K-$30K vs a drop to $10K-$15K, but there is too much confidence that price is going to already drop significantly lower. Baring in mind since 2021 approximately 50% of holders were new to Bitcoin in the past year, so a lot of the twitter sentiment comes from newbies to put it simply. That fact that by comparison WO readers think the bottom is in is no surprise to me.

Also, I don't think the 200-Week MA is "dead". Not yet anyway. Just visit the link, or see the attached screenshot. It has been crossed, but only barely, which has happened a few times in the past. If the price picks up from here, it will just be another deep blue dot touching the 200-WMA on the chart. It all depends on where the price goes next. And even if a deep and long dip eventually "kills" it, it doesn't mean much, really. MA indicators do not contain some high-level intelligence that can tell us something very useful when breached. They are just averages of price data.

JMHO.



I forgot this graph only shows the dots each month, as opposed to each week. If anything it'd make more sense to look at the 50 Month MA (~217 Weeks) if we're looking at monthly changes. Also because Bitcoin has never closed below this Monthly MA, as opposed to 200WMA which price has closed below numerous times (repeatedly in 2015 for example). Personally I'm keeping my eye on the 50 Month MA @ $21.3K as price has already flirted with this level a few times in the past week. I also don't think a close below it would be catastrophic, as long as it's within around 5% of it, ie >$20K. Only one more day to go though...

Surely one of the problems with opening and closing candles/dots is still that they are somewhat random (or connected with a thing in the world that people like to watch), and you are referring to closings that are based on monthlies within a calendar year reference point, and why go based on monthly calendar year rather than some random 30-day period or maybe the middle of the month or 2/3 into the month or some other way to measure "monthly" opening and closing without connecting it with calendar year monthly cut offs?

But I never sock-puppet.  Those who keep throwing around the term “sock-puppet” do not know what it means.

I like to aspire to use the term sock-puppet merely because I can appreciate that it annoys you...  .. and there is nothing unfairly inaccurate about the use of a term that another peep does not like even if you personally want to proclaim something like: "technically a sock puppet is x, y and z, but I am not x, y and z.  I am x, y and k (and specifically I am not z)"  which to me such posture is like a so fucking what?.. even if you might be "technically" correct.



In other news....... I now see it increasingly more likely that this war in Ukraine, escalates... and moves beyond Ukraine's borders..... which is not good news for anyone.



Russia/Ukraine is not the only consideration, but it is one which I am taking into account, when I am considering upping sticks and getting the hell away from London/UK/Europe for a while....I mean, it was part of my plan already to get away for a bit... but, now.... I am seriously considering making it happen much faster.


I want as little part of it as possible.... that goes for the Russians, the Ukrainians, the NATO countries, the USA the lot of it.  It is all fucking psychos in suits, playing psycho games, and they could not give flying fuck about me....not the Russians, not the Ukrainians, not the EU and not the UK, and I do not expect them to care about lil ol me and my family and loved ones, that is MY job.


Fuck the lot of them.... I want to get as far away as possible from the whole thing, as far as that is possible in this day and age.

Currently, the world is pretty damned interconnected, and I cannot imagine such interconnectedness diminish in large ways.. even though sure there are somewhat edge-case scenarios for such. 

It seems to me that you are likely going to have difficulties getting away from dick-swinging macro-political nonsenses completely, but I do agree that there are probably some parts of the world that are more self-sovereign and try to stay some what neutral and detached.. even though the future remains a wee bit uncertain in terms of allegiances in the future and if you still might get sucked back into hearing about it, taking sides or in other ways being materially affected in various ways.
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June 30, 2022, 04:36:07 AM

I like that.  It's a great reminder. 


tick tock next block, and when will that next bitcoin block be coming in? 
in about 10 minutes   


 the last block was 2 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in 10 minutes


But the last block was 9.5 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, give or take.



But the last block was 35 minutes ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
in about 10 minutes, I presume.


But, but but but..  the last block was more than 2 hours ago?  When do you expect the next block? 
more or less in 10 minutes.


hahahaha

10 minutes is always the correct answer.. or some variation of 10 minutes.. like 600 seconds  or somewhere between 500 and 700 seconds - give or take

And just as a reminder, this is another piece of essential Bitcoin information that CSW got wrong.
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