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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26367621 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
BitcoinBunny
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July 05, 2022, 05:40:25 PM

Our insane prime minister Boris Johnson will be out I reckon.

Rishi Sunak, The Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary Sajid Javid have quit the cabinet.


My Putin v the western leaders score card:

[ x ] Boris Johnson
[ ] Grandpa Joe Biden
[ ] Emmanuel Macron                 v.                   [ ] Vladimir Putin
[ ] Olaf Scholz
[ ] Mark Rutte
[ ] Volodymyr Zelenskyy

An X will mark executed from power. The last one standing without an X wins and gets the chocolate factory


Maybe Johnson can get a job as loser deputy prime minister of Ukraine!

Headline I just read "Can Ukraine still win the war?"  Cheesy Totally deluded.
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July 05, 2022, 05:43:01 PM
Merited by Richy_T (1)

As far as I'm concerned, the debate over firearms is already over, a long time ago; we had one in my school about 25 years ago, the anti-guns lost (and these were high school kids debating, one school vs another). It's just people are still constantly misinformed or have the wrong facts, or are confused. Or they had rather die than be able to defend themselves.

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July 05, 2022, 05:47:30 PM
Merited by Richy_T (1)

Take a look at the mass shootings they hardly happen with a handgun.
But yes handguns are the major source of homicide indeed...

Again, do some research, please. Don't just keep making shit up.

Is now the time to tell Wilhelm that the majority of U.S. fire arm homicides are from handguns? Or...?

https://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/handgun-homicides/

Any reason for a 30-60 capacity mag for self defense? Unless you are John Rambo ofcourse...


30 is a standard capacity mag for many sporting rifles. So we see already that the definition of "high capacity" is weaselly too.

And outlawing them wouldn't do shit anyway. Anyone can easily 3d print high cap mags nowdays. Easily.
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July 05, 2022, 05:51:29 PM

Our insane prime minister Boris Johnson will be out I reckon.

Rishi Sunak, The Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary Sajid Javid have quit the cabinet.


My Putin v the western leaders score card:

[ x ] Boris Johnson
[ ] Grandpa Joe Biden
[ ] Emmanuel Macron                 v.                   [ ] Vladimir Putin
[ ] Olaf Scholz
[ ] Mark Rutte
[ ] Volodymyr Zelenskyy

An X will mark executed from power. The last one standing without an X wins and gets the chocolate factory


Maybe Johnson can get a job as loser deputy prime minister of Ukraine!

Headline I just read "Can Ukraine still win the war?"  Cheesy Totally deluded.

So you are comparing democratic countries where a person in power can peacfully be removed from office by popular vote, with a dictator that can only be removed by a shot to the head, good comparison, don't forget to put it in your CV.
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July 05, 2022, 05:52:49 PM

Our insane prime minister Boris Johnson will be out I reckon.

Rishi Sunak, The Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary Sajid Javid have quit the cabinet.


My Putin v the western leaders score card:

[ x ] Boris Johnson
[ ] Grandpa Joe Biden
[ ] Emmanuel Macron                 v.                   [ ] Vladimir Putin
[ ] Olaf Scholz
[ ] Mark Rutte
[ ] Volodymyr Zelenskyy

An X will mark executed from power. The last one standing without an X wins and gets the chocolate factory


Maybe Johnson can get a job as loser deputy prime minister of Ukraine!

Headline I just read "Can Ukraine still win the war?"  Cheesy Totally deluded.

So you are comparing democratic countries where a person in power can peacfully be removed from office by popular vote, with a dictator that can only be removed by a shot to the head, good comparison, don't forget to put it in your CV.

No not all.

I am comparing all leaders of countries that wanted a change of leader in another country to a leader of a country who never makes such stupid, suicidal, boomerang statements.
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July 05, 2022, 05:54:06 PM


Then it will get better or worse.

High density area with lowering of gun regulations... let's see...

Crime in NYC (and many other cities) is already on a steep incline at the moment. Good luck pulling any signal from the noise.

Fair point looking at the homicide rates...
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July 05, 2022, 05:58:06 PM
Last edit: July 05, 2022, 06:17:26 PM by Biodom

Question for everybody in the WO.

If today, you get 1Million$ fresh fiat, available to invest in totally in this market.


What would be your strategy ? Short-long term.. Level/target.. Pourcentage.. Diversification (i mean not only "all in" on btc)..


20% in btc immediately aka over 2-4wk (or even at once)
50% buy a decent house or apartment/condo for cash or w/minimal mortgage.
30% short term treasury fund (would earn 3% by the EOY)

OR
20% btc,
80% short term treasury, then move this money to tech stocks (and maybe more btc) once FED pivots to easing.

I am 65% in cash/treasuries in my non-btc (with some other alts) funds. 35% in stocks, mostly tech.
My timing in stocks is usually bad, though, so I almost always have to wait months to years for the breakeven in some individual stocks, but overall the portfolio is growing.
I don't buy indices.

However, lately, I start thinking that ALL this asset accumulation is meaningless (above and beyond comfortable living).
Just look at the world around us. Maybe the right idea is to decumulate and enjoy life while it is still mostly decent.

EDIT btw, some leading edge biotechs started a bull run from the bottom formed about 3-4 wk ago. Some are already 50% up. Biotechs usually lead the market as they started declining in July-September of 2021, few months before big techs. Take this with a grain of salt, but it could be a market "tell".
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July 05, 2022, 06:03:32 PM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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July 05, 2022, 06:06:06 PM

Good Evening WO,

Just another Speculation in Speculation board.

What if $LTC is ahead of the time in terms of price action as compared to $BTC?


Would love to know your views on this one.  Wink

What if



NOT




LTC just got dumped from some exchanges due to the privacy issue.  BTC doesn't have this issue.

Ah, that does make sense. What if something in BTC becomes an issue later on? What do you think about that.


What if



NOT


My condescension towards the psychotics who still cling to the myth of the 200 WMA “cycle bottom” is now impatient, and outright contumelious.

ONLY you seem to have had that issue.... well you and the other degen gamblers.. so yeah, you are not alone.. just that most of them are not saying anything about their failure to properly manage risk fuck up.


Now, in 2022, I have been musing on the possibility that there may be regional, perhaps even some national housing market bubbles, as capital fleeing inflation has ballooned housing prices.  It will be fun when those pop.  Well, not fun for those who wind up homeless.

Maybe leverage your stocks to buy BTC?  The stock market has been only a casino for most of the past century—ever since (a) the managerial revolution resulted in irresponsible executives, and (b) the market transitioned from a place to buy and hold for income from dividends, to a near-Ponzi-tier market for mere price speculation.  Anyone who owns stocks is a degenerate gambler, masquerading as an “investor”.  So, have at it!

There is nothing wrong with having value in assets other than bitcoin and dollars, and there are a lot of ways to attempt to balance such allocations - surely not easy because people do not tend to have very many investments beyond their house, and other people have 401ks and they frequently do not even get the benefits of at least getting their employer match... if their employer happens to match contributions up to a certain point.


Or are you actually Michael Saylor?  He does have enough assets to survive a BTC drop all the way to zero.  He is probably not feeling very good about his debt-backed BTC purchases.  But at least, he will be fine.

If we just look strictly at Saylor/MSTR's cost per BTC, Saylor seems to be around 33% down currently (if we use $30k-ish as his average cost per BTC).  I doubt that is enough to really cause any kind of major concern.. but yeah of course, it is likely better to have the asset/investment (BTC in this case) going up rather than down..

A lot of peeps seem to project (whether implied or explicit) Saylor/MSTR in terms of being in more pain than they are actually likely to be feeling.

By the way, if you want to talk about some entity that is feeling some DOWNity price pressure pains, it seems that Coinbase is likely feeling a decent amount of pain now, and Saylor is no degenerate/shitcoiner/lack of focused twat like Coinbase.. that's for sure.. hahahahaha
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July 05, 2022, 06:06:48 PM

Question for everybody in the WO.

If today, you get 1Million$ fresh fiat, available to invest in totally in this market.


What would be your strategy ? Short-long term.. Level/target.. Pourcentage.. Diversification (i mean not only "all in" on btc)..


Buy 50 Bitcoin NOW
Wait 2-4 years for ATH
Buy luxury villa somewhere nice
Keep some cash on hand to survive 4-8 years of not having to work
HODL the rest of Bitcoin as a money machine and cash some out at ATHs when needed
eXPHorizon
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July 05, 2022, 06:13:10 PM


Who cares how many guns you have? you can only shoot one gun at the time anyway, what you need is a lot of ammunition.

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July 05, 2022, 06:47:49 PM
Merited by Hamza2424 (2)

Damn bear markets are long & boring. The only positive is these are the times that anybody with a brain lays the foundations for massive future success & wealth by buying. It’s quite surreal isn’t it, the way that most of us think compared to the average pleb in life. In a raging bull market lots of us are selling, confirming a comfortable life for us & our families, putting cash aside to buy back at a big discount when the bear market comes.
So many idiots buy during the bullish times & sell during times like this. It must be part of the brain where we are wired differently, our way of thinking. What kind of a moron is selling at these prices? Seemingly quite a lot judging by the price. Some people are just ngmi.

Any way, looking forward to 2024 & 2025, all the memes & happiness in this thread. {insert Ghana’s dancing pallbearer's gif).

Keep buying brothers of the wall. I do not want to see any mindrusting here, that’s an order!

I like the spirit, but timing is an issue re "in a raging bull market lots of us are selling". It's a pure guess on when you want to sell once it goes over previous ATH, I assume.
Immediately? Upon 2X from prior ATH? 3X?....not an easy answer. You sold and won (this time), but if it went to, say, 180K, the decision to sell at 60 wouldn't be so smart, right? Or maybe one shoud activate a steady small sell orders upon reaching some number and stick to it?
All I am saying is that the NEXT time it could be quite different (or not).
Now, when is a good time to buy? many bought at 50, 40, 30, now 20K. Was it a good buy at, say, 30K? Very well may be....in 2-4 years or so.
Personally, I did not sell any bitcoin at 60 to current, perhaps foolishly, albeit I took heavy profits in something else, so the cycle was not without profits.
I did take some profits in btc too early in 2017, so, maybe this affected my hesitation of selling above 60K, perhaps.

Re 'morons' who are selling....a whole gamut of those: late retail, leveraged a-holes, hedge funds who "have" to sell, etc.
In fact, i think that some major long term holders sold between 20K and 17.5K. Why? because bitcoin NEVER dropped below prior ATH before.
When something new happened, they took notice. Besides, some whale who bought at $20 does not really care of the price difference between 20 and 60K, he still made 1000X (not 3000X, sure).The idea that goes through their head is probably this one: IF btc went below prior ATH and is scraping just below 200 week MA, what else "new" it can do? Not relevant for me because I decided to play this one as long as I can while being mentally prepared for a low probability of even zero. It would be sad, but another experience of the gestalt.

no mindtrusting, sure.

Of course, you seem to be describing/outlining the dilemma that each of us face regarding both attempting to figure out how much to sell on the way up (if any) and then how much to buy on the way down (if any), and surely having money from the sales on the way up, does make it easier to spend that money on the way down to buy BTC but it still does not necessarily result in NOT running out of money on the way down.

Also, sometimes we speculate that we had learned from our prior mistakes, even though sometimes we will still end up in a similar kind of pickle as we had done previously.

I do personally believe that it is good to have some various price points to sell on the way up, even if it is relatively small portions of your BTC holdings, and part of my philosophy, as well, is to sell such a small amount (on the way up) that you are not going to get emotionally attached to the fact that you had sold too much on the way up.. so when the BTC price is going up, there had been times where I was starting to feel that I was selling too much on the way up.. and so it seems to me that going through such putting the theory to practice does seem to allow some tweakenings that potentially will be able to help the next time around - but surely I will corroborate that it never is an easy thing to attempt to accomplish a kind of attempt to create sells on the way up and buys on the way down that are adequate and sufficient to balance out the comfort levels (and discomfort levels, too) (both psychologically and financially).  

By the way, I still believe that any of us have the potentiality to mindrust, and surely any of us should hope that if we do end up mindrusting, it would be some relatively small portion (less than 33% perhaps?) of the BTC stash - rather than 100%.. but of course, any panic might cause us to develop way more confidence in the wrong direction than the situation merits.... so for sure, there is frequently some kind of mindrust inclinations in each of us.. even if we believe we have our finances and psychology sufficiently hedged/balanced.

another one, another one...bites the dust.

Biodom reference to this post:
Voyager temporarily suspends trading, deposits, withdrawals, and loyalty rewards.


https://www.investvoyager.com/blog/voyager-update-july-1-2022/

dropping like flies...hopefully, we are close the end than to a beginning with those entities.

It seems like we receive various kinds of vague statements from several of these companies that largely seem to come after the public has already found out that they are "in trouble."

So one of the patterns seems to be that the company will amorphously report the matter, while creating the impression that everything is fine, and with the passage of time, we end up finding out more and more and more that everything is quite "far from fine."

Sometimes it appears that the company is really fucked, but they are potentially going to be able to prevent their customers from losing funds, but surely other times it becomes quite clear that the situation is much further gone, and beyond any kind of recovery because they don't even ha enough funds to cover the customers, either.  I would imagine that the ones being assessed by FTX or even by other possibly sufficiently capitalized companies are not going to buy the company unless there is at least enough capital to cover a vast majority of the client/customer deposits, and that can take a bit of time to figure out how bad is bad.








In sceen
B
T
C
Holders VS Economy Manipulators

Source: Twitter Related to Finance & Politics

If you were to know how to provide a proper link, I might be more inclined to send you a proper smerit.. for posts like this... but I cannot bring my lil selfie to click on that "send" button.

I can't

I can't


I can't

 Tongue Tongue Tongue
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July 05, 2022, 06:54:30 PM

Our insane prime minister Boris Johnson will be out I reckon.

Rishi Sunak, The Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary Sajid Javid have quit the cabinet.


My Putin v the western leaders score card:

[ x ] Boris Johnson
[ ] Grandpa Joe Biden
[ ] Emmanuel Macron                 v.                   [ ] Vladimir Putin
[ ] Olaf Scholz
[ ] Mark Rutte
[ ] Volodymyr Zelenskyy

An X will mark executed from power. The last one standing without an X wins and gets the chocolate factory


Maybe Johnson can get a job as loser deputy prime minister of Ukraine!

Headline I just read "Can Ukraine still win the war?"  Cheesy Totally deluded.

Frankly, I couldn't believe when the brits voted for Brexit. I was hoping they're smart enough to not buy that Boris's shit. Man I was wrong.   Cool
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July 05, 2022, 06:54:31 PM


Let's name a few

- restrict the insane from buying
- restrict criminals from buying
- proper storage of weapons in the home
- gun registration
- no open or concealed carry for assault rifles
- ban on high capacity magazines
- ban on full-auto firing
Etc.
Etc.


My dick is big, but... bwah.

(couldn't help it.  That's IT dammit.  I promise)
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July 05, 2022, 06:57:23 PM



Think Positive.
That will be Progressive
Be Smart

Haha that's me in 2018.  Grin

We all have our price.  Tis' a personal thing... like shoes or headphones, or bumpstocks.
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July 05, 2022, 07:01:20 PM


Explanation
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July 05, 2022, 07:03:18 PM
Merited by Richy_T (1)

Our insane prime minister Boris Johnson will be out I reckon.

Rishi Sunak, The Chancellor of the Exchequer and Health Secretary Sajid Javid have quit the cabinet.


My Putin v the western leaders score card:

[ x ] Boris Johnson
[ ] Grandpa Joe Biden
[ ] Emmanuel Macron                 v.                   [ ] Vladimir Putin
[ ] Olaf Scholz
[ ] Mark Rutte
[ ] Volodymyr Zelenskyy

An X will mark executed from power. The last one standing without an X wins and gets the chocolate factory


Maybe Johnson can get a job as loser deputy prime minister of Ukraine!

Headline I just read "Can Ukraine still win the war?"  Cheesy Totally deluded.

Frankly, I couldn't believe when the brits voted for Brexit. I was hoping they're smart enough to not buy that Boris's shit. Man I was wrong.   Cool

I was happy with the free travel / potential free move from the UK to western European countries but especially the political layer that it introduced and was getting bigger and bigger and bigger and less democratic; no thanks.
Bizarre how Ursula Von Der Leyen can even attend G7 meetings. It seems wrong to me. The only one on the ballot as far as I remember as EU leader. Not democratic.
With the economic downturn on the horizon I doubt many citizens across the EU will want more EU and more fiscal integration.

But who knows. Many will see it as the exact opportunity to grab more power.
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July 05, 2022, 07:06:52 PM
Merited by fillippone (3), JayJuanGee (1)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIs9IbrlPZo

Quote
Peter Schiff's bank being shut down by regulators in Puerto Rico, and the irony of this happening to someone who is so anti-Bitcoin.

As Satoshi pointed out, Bitcoin allows us not to have to trust banks anymore.

I'm enjoying this guys vids lately.


More links for your reading pleasure. Cheesy

Quote
Peter Schiff’s bank closure strengthens Bitcoin case for financial freedom
https://cointelegraph.com/news/peter-schiff-s-bank-closure-strengthens-bitcoin-case-for-financial-freedom

Quote
Peter Schiff trying to save Puerto Rico bank under probe
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/peter-schiff-trying-to-save-puerto-rico-bank-under-probe/2022/07/01/05923e56-f950-11ec-81db-ac07a394a86b_story.html

Quote
Peter Schiff's Euro Pacific Bank Suspended by Puerto Rico's Regulator — Schiff Insists No Evidence of Crime
https://news.bitcoin.com/peter-schiffs-euro-pacific-bank-suspended-by-puerto-ricos-regulator-schiff-insists-no-evidence-of-crime/
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July 05, 2022, 07:11:41 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


By the way, I still believe that any of us have the potentiality to mindrust, and surely any of us should hope that if we do end up mindrusting, it would be some relatively small portion (less than 33% perhaps?) of the BTC stash - rather than 100%.. but of course, any panic might cause us to develop way more confidence in the wrong direction than the situation merits.... so for sure, there is frequently some kind of mindrust inclinations in each of us.. even if we believe we have our finances and psychology sufficiently hedged/balanced.

I think Mindrust mindrusted us all into not-mindrusting. After seeing what happened to Mindrust, I am never going to mindrust again. Even if the feeling of mindrusting comes back during a scary dip. Tongue

Quote
It seems like we receive various kinds of vague statements from several of these companies that largely seem to come after the public has already found out that they are "in trouble."

So one of the patterns seems to be that the company will amorphously report the matter, while creating the impression that everything is fine, and with the passage of time, we end up finding out more and more and more that everything is quite "far from fine."

Sometimes it appears that the company is really fucked, but they are potentially going to be able to prevent their customers from losing funds, but surely other times it becomes quite clear that the situation is much further gone, and beyond any kind of recovery because they don't even ha enough funds to cover the customers, either.  I would imagine that the ones being assessed by FTX or even by other possibly sufficiently capitalized companies are not going to buy the company unless there is at least enough capital to cover a vast majority of the client/customer deposits, and that can take a bit of time to figure out how bad is bad.
Another amazingly accurate case of what happens when "not your keys, not your coins" is disregarded. I would not be surprised if they just tell everyone "sorry, we're bankrupt. Or maybe they will forego telling everyone how screwed they are and keep denying reality like Luna Terra. "Keep believing in us, because [insert PR slogan]. Good luck with your future endeavors and remember, its not our fault."
 



Quote
If you were to know how to provide a proper link, I might be more inclined to send you a proper smerit.. for posts like this... but I cannot bring my lil selfie to click on that "send" button.

I can't
I can't
I can't

 Tongue Tongue Tongue

https://twitter.com/VictorOkoeguale/status/1540255343476875266
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July 05, 2022, 07:12:23 PM
Last edit: July 05, 2022, 07:40:29 PM by cAPSLOCK

So when I logged in this morning and saw the "head-fake" I was about to post... most likely breaks down now.  But it was too close to a work meeting.  "Now how do you like me?", said Bitcoin. Once again.



By the way... this is a symmetrical triangle still trying to break out on the daily.  But the fact we are to the nose of it... usually the break outs (in either direction) are strong.  We will see?



Forming a pretty dragonfly doji too!
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