Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Source

I thought the 300 wma was a better indicator at least of what might replace the 200 wma as a long term bottom price marker for being in really good buying territory

Sure we can use the 300-week moving average as a reference, which would be 6 years rather than 4 years (which is the 200 week moving average), but why?  The 200 WMA is not broken. .it is still a good and solid reference point.

The 1,000 day moving average, just seems to confuse matters.. it is like just under 3 years, so it is like a 150 WMA.. so why not stick with the common reference of the 200 WMA.. there are already a lot of tools built around the 200 WMA.. and it still seems like a pretty damned decent reference point... even if we are below it for quite a bit longer (and maybe even further too) than ever before in bitcoin's history.. so yeah.. largely more than 3 months below the 200 WMA.. and furthermore touching upon more than 22% below the 200-week moving average today with price going down to $18,196 (so far) and the current 200-WMA at $23,353.

It seems to me that merely because we have been below the 200-week moving average for longer than we wish does not mean that it has discontinued to serve as a meaningful reference point - even as a bottom reference (as if it were ever an "absolute" bottom because absolutes do not exist in bitcoinlandia.. and there tends to be a lot of excitement in breaking extremes and even going more extreme, when possible.

Sure the 300-week moving average is there (and it appears to be currently at about $17,700-ish).. which is not very much at a lower price than our current price.. but it is not a very frequently touched upon metric in bitcoinlandia.. so far (and in June when we reached $17593, the 300-WMA was then at about $16,750-ish).. so how could the 300-week MA have a whole hell of a lot of meaning - except to make some of us (HODLers) depressed because we are going lower than we had previously.. but still a big so what, since shit happens and bitcoin is still not dead and not likely to be dead even if the BTC prices go down to the 300-week moving average or even if we start looking at the 400 week moving average (8 years).. why?. .just to start to feel negative about bitcoin? when there is nothing really to feel negative about?

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out......]
I thought that bitcoin systems were adding towards the creation of better incentives for bitcoin miners to seek lower cost energy, and I did not know that bitcoin gave too many shits about which kind of energy as long as it was relatively cheaper in terms of not necessarily competing with higher energy demand areas.

So without even pushing to control the kinds of energy that bitcoin would use, it would somewhat naturally seek the less expensive stuff and therefore cause incentives that even off the places in which energy might be trapped or wasted - and therefore maybe even increasing incentives to produce more energy overall because bitcoin mining would be creating value where there had not previously been value.. potentially making the pie BIGGER for everyone.

You seem to be getting into dangerous territory, goldkingcoiner if you are suggesting that some kinds of energy production is bad or should be discouraged, and for sure there seem to be weird battles regarding energy production in recent time.. that seem to be devolving into telling people what kinds of energy they are permitted to use and not to use.. which then seems to exacerbate some of the worsening production issues.. or supply side issues.. and sure, it does not help to be having a BIG battle with Russia around this topic either..

I am not against "green energy" in principle but there seems to be a lot of weird control issues going on, and even the solution to high energy prices seems to be to print more money rather than to increase production of energy.. sure some of that energy can come from "cleaner" sources, but we should not be living in a time in which any of us should have to consider rationing energy and just that regular peeps should be able to have access to energy.. and of course, if there are shortages of energy.. it seems like a production side issue.. not as much of a demand issue.. and yeah incomes of people around the world is not equally distributed, either.

The heavy mining energy costs are definitely driving us towards green energy.

There may be some folks who believe that there is an "us" that is willing (or able) to be "driven towards green energy," but I am thinking that you are getting your language wrong here.. because the incentives built into bitcoin gives no ratts' asses whether energy is green or not... There are incentives that the energy be less expensive; however, the extent to which any mining operation is going to be operating at "optimal efficiencies" will depend upon a variety of factors - which (the last time I checked) continue to be decentralized to the extent that individuals, mining institutions (and surely pools too) are considering a variety of factors in regards to when, where and how to conduct their mining operations and "green" aspects may well be discretionary - depending on a variety of factors.

I am not proclaiming that you are completely wrong.. but your suggestion that "green" has to be a priority based on current happenings seems to misdescribe what might be dogs and what might be tails - even though they are both present on the same animal.

The cost of electricity is calculated from generation, transmission, and distribution. Generation is the lucrative part for big oil and the part they do not want to let go of. Green energy would actually be the cheaper alternative, if fully implemented.

Aren't you presuming too much, goldkingcoiner?  Where do you get the idea that "Green" energy is always cheaper?  Might the cost of energy and the advantages and disadvantages of each energy type differ based on location, and sometimes there could be some justifications to operate some kinds of energy at a loss in order to fund research or the development of future energy-related technologies.. and surely bitcoin has a lot of various ways in which energy can be consumed that had not been previously practical. so I am not really disagreeing with the ideas about the need to analyze generation, transmission and distribution.. . .and it seems that we also have concerns about how energy is consumed too.. especially when it comes to certain kinds of consumption that is deemed to be "less important" by some segments of the population.. so surely generation, transmission and distribution are supply side factors and some concerns about consumption has recently been part of what is being considered in the recent formulas too... and also who consumes the energy.. there seem to be some protectionism regarding who can consume what kinds of energy too, no?  and bitcoin is part of the idea.. but "we" don't want poor people to be consuming energy, right?  They might get richer by figuring out how to consume energy in ways to benefit their situations rather than contributing to the ability of others to be able to consume.  I am not claiming to know the answer.. but it seems that arguments are being convoluted and maybe it is not always on purpose... even though sometimes it seems that the convolution is happening on purpose.. and it is not just on one side of the political spectrum, either

Renewable energy sources are already the cheapest energy sources since 2020¹. Big oil is tricking people in so many nefarious ways. Its shocking, really.

Big oil is the bad guy?  I have difficulties with this presumption. 

¹ https://www.irena.org/newsroom/articles/2022/Jul/Competitiveness-of-Renewables-Continued-Amid-Fossil-Fuel-Crisis

You're right. Recycling plastic is definitely a scam. Another scam by big oil / big plastic to dupe people into buying more plastic. Fuck polluters and their bullshit mentality towards our planet.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LELvVUIz5pY

I understand various arguments regarding privatizing the gains and socializing the losses, so I would agree that companies should not be socializing some of their expenses (which would include costs to the environment that sometimes need to be sufficiently and adequately considered).. I am also not inclined to privatize everything, so there is a role for government and also a role to protect various public interests when it comes to energy production and also energy availability, yet I have difficulties considering that the energy companies are always the bad guys.. because there are some needs for allowing for the production and finding of resources and the various supply-side factors that you mentioned.

[cAPSLOCK]

FYI

theymos doing what he does best...

Bravo....

Note that I've decided to suspend ad sales. These auctions will probably be permanently ended, and I'm not sure whether or in what form advertising in general will be continued. Maybe some ads will go up again fairly soon, or maybe there will never be any more ads; I haven't decided yet. The main reasons for this decision are:

Firstly, I'm finding it too difficult to determine which services are legit/safe and which are not. It takes me 30+ minutes to research each new service to reach at least some level of confidence in it, but at the end of this I often still don't feel fully confident. Bitcointalk.org is meant to be operated "as a service to the community", so it's very important to me that bitcointalk.org not be seen to be putting profit above the interests of its users. (I've been kind of shocked at the crypto-related ads that are shown on TV, which are often way beyond anything I'd accept here. And I'd like to tighten our standards.)

.....

Finally, bitcointalk.org has a large reserve of BTC, so we're able to continue operating without ad revenue for many years. It's not even necessary to cut expenses or find replacement sources of revenue anytime soon, and I currently have no solid plans to do these things. I do regard it as less than ideal to be operating at a constant loss, especially because it constraints any desired future growth in expenses. Improving this situation will be on my mind in the coming years, but luckily it need not be a high priority.

Or...

I have decided the (AT LEAST) 60 million USD in donations to the forum  will be enough to sustain us for 6-8 months or so.

https://bitcointalk.org/donate.html

Don't @ me.  I love Thanos and the forum.  (Wait... I mean Theranos... sorry.)  ((feck, I am getting banned and all my merits erased!!!))

[cAPSLOCK]

Helo frens.

How iz ur traed?

BITMAIN selling S19 Pro for $1900 i.e. $19 per T.
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220919144041252Ua2SetxW06D3

Kaboomracks has them for immediate delivery.

Thought about getting one for "reasons", but decided against it. Keep doing the math, and it's still less stress to just market smash-buy corn instead

Your timing has always been fairly impeccable.  

And wait a moment?!??!?  Are you bringing fiber to a remote Texas rural community so you can mine with all your racks in your barn in the Tejas Bagnoo?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[DudeAtWork420]

Russia again rattling the global political stage with the announcement of a partial mobilisation of its reservist
with Putin again alluding to WMD's and the quote of 'It's not a bluff'
I feel desperation creeping into Moscows narrative....I just hope sanity prevails and that c*nt is deposed before he can do irreparable damage
news from the UAE as royals give the nod towards bitcoin and facilitating transactions...probably a notable thing for adoption in the region
next on the table after today is the MtGox thing as guidance is awaited...and likely legacy earnings coming into October

dyor

For those who knows putin knows he can do anything to save his images. Right now in moscow oppositions is preparing for an anti war rally when demands of one way ticket from russia increased after putin announce some restriction of going outside country for some certain age people. Wester supplies just slowed down russian plan to annexation of ukraine.

If MtGox event really kicks off and old investors got their BTC back then probably we could see further downside of the market. Many old investors will immediately dump some of their BTC to book some profits which they are already in. Its a panic events for impatience people and a opportunity for patience one.

[philipma1957]

BITMAIN selling S19 Pro for $1900 i.e. $19 per T.

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220919144041252Ua2SetxW06D3

yeah we ordered.

and these will give a future coupon for 30% off next miner


so this is hugely bullish longterm much like the 2018 order patterns and the 2019 listings.

30 day wait is 30 x $7.50 or $225 in gross earnings lost.

this is a good deal if you have power and want to mine.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[RD_BTC]

Bitcoin Just Being Bitcoin.
S13E345

https://i.imgur.com/kRTbMPX.png

Damn

Bitcoin is in bad shape since the FOMC meeting ends tomorrow. They inform everyone at the meeting. FOMC interest rates by 75 Basis Points.

[Toxic2040]

Bitcoin Just Being Bitcoin.
S13E345



Damn

zoom out fren


W



stronghands

[ThemePen]

Bitcoin has died 461 times and still alive. Means it will never die.

Look at the All time chart and die news. Looking nice.



Taken from: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

[OgNasty]

Jamie Dimon saying that Bitcoin is a decentralized Ponzi scheme can’t be good for the price in the short term. Longer term I think this could be the beginnings of signs that we’ve reached bottom. Maybe not the exact bottom, but when you’re looking back on a 10 year chart it will look like the bottom where you should’ve started buying and stopped selling.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

Helo frens.

How iz ur traed?

I like your attempt at dissimulation to steer away from the sp(a)ying all seeing A..I over the webz. That is why I write " BTCiTcoin " as JJG does not understand, to not appear between the lines of code.       

[BobLawblaw]

Are you bringing fiber to a remote Texas rural community

I have all sorts of grandiose ideas I look forward to entertaining once the barn is livable. Should be getting a quote any day now to build out the interior. Doors and windows have been ordered. Already has the garage doors installed.

Truth be told, they already have a pretty decent fiber run up the main highway closest to us, so should not be a problem running it out to the barn. Then during phase 2, run it to the house/studio/museum as well.

I'll cross those "grandiose bridges" as our base slowly expands. Had to already scrap and re-think many plans already, and hoping I don't need to sue our builder. Lawyer is presently building a case should they fail to fix a problem with a half mile stretch of concrete they poured - a very costly mistake on their part that they need to fix due to FEMA floodplain issues they've created.

Grief.

I can't stand life, lately. Too fucking complicated. I'm a simple fucking man at heart.

[DVlog]

I heard that recycling is a scam, and it doesn't really happen on the scale that we had been told in the 70s... so there are various differences in the kinds of plastics that would NOT have much if any "recyclable" value... so then which kinds of plastics can actually be recycled.. and then are they sortable.. or are we just being sold a bag of tricks.. and there is not much if any value in recycling a large number of items that we previously thought to be recyclable?

Heard about a new kind of super worm that feeds those plastic that nature can not dispose of. Recycling cost more money than the value of goods it could produce. The only thing govt can do is to force companies to collect their plastic and recycle those by themselves Or force them to use any eco-friendly materials.

The way our environment is polluted by us it will be difficult to recover from it that easily.

(Future) global government, yes. Otherwise it makes no real sense to save the earth in the US while China (as a stupid, simple example) destroys it.
FYI The vast majority of pollution in China basically are caused by western companies, while the same are currently trying to greenwash themselves in the US and Europe.

Would be cool if you could deliver "heard about" soures  
EDIT: Are you even sure that the worm doesn't just shit out the plastic at the other end?

Superworms capable of munching through plastic waste. I am not sure what these creatures shit out after eating plastic but if they are real then they can be a solution and a threat at the same time. Just thinking about what will happen if these creatures lose out in a big city. Most of the materials we use nowadays have plastic materials in it.

Only blaming some specific country will not solve anything. 3rd world countries is also a mass users of plastic materials which goes straight in the nature after being used. Developed countries at least has some sort of dump management system.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin may come close to 16k. Because it is very difficult to maintain the weight of Bitcoin at 19k.    

Are you sure?

Are you sure?

Are you sure that you are in the right thread?


Bitcoin? 

Have you heard of it? $19k is not very weighty at all.


Had you noticed that the BTC price has been below the 200-week moving average for more than 3 months?  Which means that $19k is hardly weighty at all.



O.k..

Maybe you have been reading too many reddit threads?  or mainstream media renditions of BTC price dynamics?

Or would you rather get a bat slappening?  That might help?  Maybe?  That is if you are helpable.

I am wondering.

Are you helpable?

Russia again rattling the global political stage with the announcement of a partial mobilisation of its reservist
with Putin again alluding to WMD's and the quote of 'It's not a bluff'
I feel desperation creeping into Moscows narrative....I just hope sanity prevails and that c*nt is deposed before he can do irreparable damage
news from the UAE as royals give the nod towards bitcoin and facilitating transactions...probably a notable thing for adoption in the region
next on the table after today is the MtGox thing as guidance is awaited...and likely legacy earnings coming into October

dyor

For those who knows putin knows he can do anything to save his images. Right now in moscow oppositions is preparing for an anti war rally when demands of one way ticket from russia increased after putin announce some restriction of going outside country for some certain age people. Wester supplies just slowed down russian plan to annexation of ukraine.

If MtGox event really kicks off and old investors got their BTC back then probably we could see further downside of the market. Many old investors will immediately dump some of their BTC to book some profits which they are already in. Its a panic events for impatience people and a opportunity for patience one.

It's doubtful that if actual real people (creditors in GOX) were to get their coins back that they would sell in any kind of meaningful way; however, the fact of the matter is that a lot of the creditors had been bought out by companies (for pennies on the dollar).. so the vast majority of those coins that will get issued will not go back to the original creditors but instead to entities that will end up amassing quite a few BTC payments based on their having had purchased those coins at a bargain price.  It still is not obvious that those who bought out the claims will dump, but they likely might not be as incentivized to hold as if they had been the original creditors.

[OutOfMemory]

Grief.

I can't stand life, lately. Too fucking complicated. I'm a simple fucking man at heart.

Life is pretty simple, but people are making it complicated.
I only managed the bulding of a house so far, and it gave me a hell of a bad time, too. We were on the verge of sueing the builder, but in the end we settled for money (less for him), only a light case, but it was shitty enough, given that i was in bad shape regarding my mind and body, had to quit working - most of you should know the story already.
Once things stick in the back of your head, you're better off compensating them. Balance your emotions. The easiest way is to spent about the same time (minimum) with simple, uplifting activities. Things you loved to do as a child, teen, young man. Bring back some spirit, to lift your soul up from the ground it has been dragged to. Meet people, i mean the ones you really care about, the ones that are funny and know you the best.
If you're a strong man, i'd reccomend you to learn that breathing method by Wim Hof and take those 2 minute cold water plunges. It's so stress relieving.
I know it became too popular lately, but it just works. After the first few breaths, your mind gets so calm inside, hard to compare, it's like MDMA without the excitement.
A big plus is that it's really simple to learn and do.

I spent a summer long without cold water, but five days ago the water in my dedicated barrel cooled down to 11°C. I was doubtful at first: "How did i even do this last winter every other day?" - 30 seconds later with my nipples two inches under water, that peaceful feeling kicked in again, flushing my mind with endorphines. And so i got hooked again.
Your mind will stay clear AF for a while after, try to embrace and extend this feeling as long as possible. Keep your hands and feet warm when dry again.
I can only reccommend this to bring up the levels of the right endorphines in the brain. It's so simple that it just works and it makes you more stress resistant overall.