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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26363933 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
modrobert
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November 15, 2022, 07:57:29 AM

Yeah exchanges truly failed us here.

As far as early signs go; there seems to be a correlation between how difficult (many steps, limits, etc.) it is transfer BTC out of an exchange and how close said exchange is to fail.
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November 15, 2022, 08:01:16 AM


Explanation
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November 15, 2022, 08:02:48 AM
Last edit: November 15, 2022, 08:14:55 AM by shahzadafzal


It must be a very proud moment for all of us.
All the hard work you have put in has paid off. Congratulations everyone.

I have added +2 from my side, share you contribution too.

Have a successful future you can do it, 10 billion is the next target.



btw it took us 12 years to reach 7 billion to 8 billion. But it's predicted that we will not reach 9 billion for about the next 15 years, that means the 10 billion mark will take another 15-20 years.

In total we might cross the 10 billion mark in about 30-35 years.

Now plan accordingly, hold as much BTC as possible Smiley
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November 15, 2022, 08:20:14 AM


It must be a very proud moment for all of us.
All the hard work you have put in has paid off. Congratulations everyone.

I have added +2 from my side, share you contribution too.

Have a successful future you can do it, 10 billion is the next target.



Tick! Tock!
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November 15, 2022, 09:01:19 AM


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November 15, 2022, 09:25:11 AM

We are still Early...



https://mobile.twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1591951579930058752

100%... Agree.
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November 15, 2022, 10:01:16 AM


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November 15, 2022, 10:08:26 AM


BitcoinBunny
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November 15, 2022, 10:29:17 AM


Sure you don't want to buy a Proof of Stake NFT of a DeFi token, upgraded with a BlockFi, downgraded with a HiFi, compatible with WiFi?

Guaranteed to go up forever!
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November 15, 2022, 10:36:52 AM
Last edit: November 15, 2022, 11:14:02 AM by HI-TEC99
Merited by BobLawblaw (10)

SBF's twitter account's probably been hacked.

Nope.

More nefarious than that.

He's deleting old Tweets, and posting new lame shit to keep his post-count the same, to thwart archival bots.

https://twitter.com/TheTieIO/status/1592366871386681344
https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1592334689335144448

Maybe not.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/sam-bankman-fried-s-weird-cryptic-tweets-attract-even-wilder-theories

Quote
A seemingly debunked theory was that Bankman-Fried allegedly used the new tweets to cover up the deletion of his older “incriminating” ones in a sleight-of-hand attempt to dupe tweet-tracking bots that use his account’s total tweet count to catch deleted tweets.

https://twitter.com/cmsintern/status/1592372634955976704

Quote
looks like @SBF_FTX has not been deleting tweets

the reduction in tweet count has come from other accounts deleting tweets (mostly related to FTX/SBF) that Sam had RT’d

lotta @TomBrady

all tweets deleted in last 6 days



CMS intern
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Replying to @ercwl
I have his tweet history downloaded from last week

will download new set and run vlookup and post the newly deleted ones

Nobody's sure what he's up to. Some are speculating that he's back on amphetamines again.



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November 15, 2022, 11:01:17 AM


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November 15, 2022, 11:57:11 AM

Mempool hovering at 130mb all day!
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November 15, 2022, 12:01:21 PM


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November 15, 2022, 12:12:41 PM
Merited by AverageGlabella (2), gallianooo (2), JayJuanGee (1)

Long-time no post, have been having a break from crypto while waiting to see where price goes while keeping an eye on latest events.

A few things I'm paying attention to right now:

  • According to FTX bankruptcy filings, they don't hold any Bitcoin. Likely they never did. Therefore there won't be any future Bitcoin liquidations from this entity.
  • Ie based on these proceedings, a sell-off of BTC from this exchange can be ruled out, unlike like 3AC/Luna liquidations that forced prices lower.
  • Quite likely another exchange falls as the bank run continues, as many already predict. Probably the exchanges people least expect.

A few points on price right now:

  • Most speculators are again now expecting at least $14K, or more likely $12K, even $10K. Nothing has really changed here, only increased bearish conviction.
  • To this point; I can fully understand why. There is a massive trading gap between $17.5K and $12K (ie no support), despite accumulation at current prices.
  • Ironically if BTC had held $30K until recently prior to dropping to $15K, many would instead consider this a bottom, as would be very similar as 2018 capitulation.

A few other random thoughts:

I think it's too early to tell where price heads next, probably as many wait to see how far the contagion spreads, and whether it leads to further liquidations. Nobody really knows how far it will spread either, without insider knowledge that is. Either below $15.5K we finally reach the most bearish targets, or a move back above $18K could lead lead to a bullish monthly close above $19.5K.

The positives to take away from this recent capitulation is that based on volume as well as time, the recent drop is more than sufficient for a bottom. The only lacking factor is an -83% correction similar to previous cycles towards $12K, as many anticipate, despite this current cycle being very different to others (double top without parabolic move to end bull trend).

As for inflation, recession? Bitcoin has so far preformed better this year in it's bear market than in 2018. One year after ATH and it's down -77% compared to -83%. Notably in 2015 the bear market took 13.5 months to reach -83%, so clearly there is still time for further downside, but otherwise inflation hasn't caused price to collapse further than usual - only quicker than usual.
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November 15, 2022, 12:47:06 PM

I was the first person to pay in #Bitcoin    at my hotel in El Salvador.
It's in bloody El Zonte.

i tried to tip the waiter in El Zonte, Olas permanentes yesterday afternoon.

I just assumed it would be a LN QR.

Paid.

Charged 10,000 Sats in fees. It was a base chain invoice I was just too tired to realize.

https://twitter.com/JoeNakamoto/status/1592171698950123520?s=19

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November 15, 2022, 01:01:16 PM


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November 15, 2022, 01:02:59 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), ivomm (1)

Long-time no post, have been having a break from crypto while waiting to see where price goes while keeping an eye on latest events.

A few things I'm paying attention to right now:

  • According to FTX bankruptcy filings, they don't hold any Bitcoin. Likely they never did. Therefore there won't be any future Bitcoin liquidations from this entity.
  • Ie based on these proceedings, a sell-off of BTC from this exchange can be ruled out, unlike like 3AC/Luna liquidations that forced prices lower.
  • Quite likely another exchange falls as the bank run continues, as many already predict. Probably the exchanges people least expect.

A few points on price right now:

  • Most speculators are again now expecting at least $14K, or more likely $12K, even $10K. Nothing has really changed here, only increased bearish conviction.
  • To this point; I can fully understand why. There is a massive trading gap between $17.5K and $12K (ie no support), despite accumulation at current prices.
  • Ironically if BTC had held $30K until recently prior to dropping to $15K, many would instead consider this a bottom, as would be very similar as 2018 capitulation.

A few other random thoughts:

I think it's too early to tell where price heads next, probably as many wait to see how far the contagion spreads, and whether it leads to further liquidations. Nobody really knows how far it will spread either, without insider knowledge that is. Either below $15.5K we finally reach the most bearish targets, or a move back above $18K could lead lead to a bullish monthly close above $19.5K.

The positives to take away from this recent capitulation is that based on volume as well as time, the recent drop is more than sufficient for a bottom. The only lacking factor is an -83% correction similar to previous cycles towards $12K, as many anticipate, despite this current cycle being very different to others (double top without parabolic move to end bull trend).

As for inflation, recession? Bitcoin has so far preformed better this year in it's bear market than in 2018. One year after ATH and it's down -77% compared to -83%. Notably in 2015 the bear market took 13.5 months to reach -83%, so clearly there is still time for further downside, but otherwise inflation hasn't caused price to collapse further than usual - only quicker than usual.

There are three things which are keeping me optimistic that we're not going to see the price go much lower.

Firstly, following the FTX debacle, there's been a huge removal of coins from exchanges, through fear of whether exchanges hold sufficient reserves. NYKNYC, etc. This increase of scarcity of BTC on exchanges could support (maybe increase?) the price as demand exceeds supply.

Secondly, there's no reason for the FTX contagion to spread beyond shitcoins and into BTC (other than misconceived and ill-educated opinion)

Thirdly, BTC tends to do what's least expected - so if the masses (with their misconceived and ill-educated opinion, fuelled also by MSM) are expecting contagion to flow into BTC and cause panic sells then.....it probably won't happen.

Hey, I'm just trying to be optimistic here Grin
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November 15, 2022, 01:17:43 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

...Quite likely another exchange falls as the bank run continues, as many already predict. Probably the exchanges people least expect.

...

It's unlikely to be coinbase. It's CEO say's so.

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November 15, 2022, 01:25:06 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), ivomm (1)

Do I remember correctly, that some time ago (2020-2021) there were some WOers that were posting about lending BTC to Celsius and similar sites to earn interest? I also remember other WOers warning them about the possibility of losing their coins, stressing the importance of NYKNYC and all...

I sincerely hope the damage was minimal or at least manageable. Let this serve as a lesson to all, affected or not, that uncontrollable greed is a dangerous thing that can take your coins, your sanity and even your life.

Speaking of greed, isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...
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November 15, 2022, 01:36:42 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)


isn't Bitcoin's price appreciation over the years good enough? FFS! I guess one can never have enough...

Looks like we are now at the end of the road for bitcoin appreciation. Now fully capitalised and valuations will probably hover between 20k and 60k from here on in.

The price has now dipped well below the last market peak from the 4 year cycle instead of staying above it as in previous cycles and the logarithmic long term trend has now levelled off, so stock-to-flow worked for a while but we've even departed form that = projections on the future based on hopium of the past  Wink
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