Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hostm]

Actually things are not so bad. Chippies from FTX and Celsius Network helped us buy bitcoin cheaper 

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[Richy_T]

Meh, same old same old. FTX not the end of the world as anyone with sense already know. Time to start moving back up.

FTX briefly pulled Bitcoin's trousers down, but it it won't take long to pull them back up again.

I didn't see anything change about Bitcoin at all. Just sheep being sheared.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

Meh, same old same old. FTX not the end of the world as anyone with sense already know. Time to start moving back up.

FTX briefly pulled Bitcoin's trousers down, but it it won't take long to pull them back up again.

I didn't see anything change about Bitcoin at all. Just sheep being sheared.

Perhaps I should have replaced "bitcoin" with "over leveraged paper hands" in that meme.

[Torque]

OT: Elizabeth Holmes got sentenced to 11-1/4 years prison today.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes-faces-judgment-day

Halle-fucking-lujah! There is some justice in the world.

Especially since she spent a decade spending millions, jet-setting around the globe and hob-nobbing with the elites.

Hope it sends a strong message to any other Silicon Valley narcissist wannabe scammers.

[WhyFhy]

Now's not the time to splurge on Christmas and instead focus on BTC while it's still trying to get up off its ass in this schoolyard fight.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

[HI-TEC99]

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, ...

[philipma1957]

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, I expect "only" 5-10X in the next cycle (from the bottom).
Why? Prior cycles:
$2 bottom, then $1160 top or 580X
$175 bottom, then $19780 top or 113X
$3100 bottom, then $68900 top or 22X

As you can see, the multiple keeps decreasing drastically (by a factor of about 5) in each consecutive cycle.
Accordingly, the next number for a top is roughly 5X of the bottom, but due to some variability, perhaps up to 10X is possible.
Currently, this would mean either $77.5K (which would be a GREAT disappointment for almost everyone) or up to, perhaps, $155K, which could be OK.

So 77k-155k next cycle.

 Maybe I remember this quote in a few years.

[Biodom]

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, ...

either you did not read to the bottom of my post or you want to distort the meaning of it.
"currently" and 77.5 being a 5x of 15.5 pretty much shows my opinion of the bottom.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HI-TEC99]

Whatever the ultimate bottom is, ...

either you did not read to the bottom of my post or you want to distort the meaning of it.
"currently" and 77.5 being a 5x of 15.5 pretty much shows my opinion of the bottom.

I'm just guessing, my bottom is smaller than yours.

This is my guess for what the top will look like.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OgNasty]

Bitcoin looking eerily stable as volume drops back down to normal.  Seems like somebody is doing some buying and keeping a floor on the price.  The trading range over the last few days is only a few percent.  That to me signals that some sort of market change might be happening.  This is probably a point in time where you don't want to be the guy who capitulated at $16K after riding out the bubble through $60K.  It feels a lot like the pain is coming to an end soon and good times are right around the corner for Bitcoin speculators.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin looking eerily stable as volume drops back down to normal.  Seems like somebody is doing some buying and keeping a floor on the price.  The trading range over the last few days is only a few percent.  That to me signals that some sort of market change might be happening.  This is probably a point in time where you don't want to be the guy who capitulated at $16K after riding out the bubble through $60K.  It feels a lot like the pain is coming to an end soon and good times are right around the corner for Bitcoin speculators.

Wow!

You are coming off as more bullish than me, at least at the moment.

We have a lot of contagion continuing to be revealed.. so sure there could be a lot of ongoing downward pressures on the BTC price - while at the same time, we could end up getting a pump or a short squeeze.. but we would still need to get at least into the mid-20s before I might be wanting to feel like the "bottom is in," but whatever, I have never claimed to be anything more than a "lagging indicator" anyhow?  At least that's my recollection of the way that I approach these short term BTC price performance matters.

And, by the way, I might not even be happy with mid-$20ks because that is just getting us to the 200-week moving average price arena.. which is a bottom in and of itself.. so I am still thinking that I need to see some dancing between the 200-week moving average and the 100-week moving average (which is actually in the upper $30ks) before I am going to be getting into my "bottom is in" smuggenings.


I was kind of like that in 20215/16 too, and also I was like that in 2019 - even though we were surely spoiled by the early 2019 pump - and also I seem to understand some of the indicators better, even though they are not really leading me to ways of getting out of my tendencies to employ lagging indicator mental frameworks.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation